2026 Oscar Predictions!

 It is time once again for absolutely correct Oscar predictions! Every year I pay attention less, so this of course gets a lot more fun. I was never great when I did pay attention so like everything in life, nothing matters! Let's get to it with some new fun categories:

Best Picture

Bugonia (Focus Features); Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers
F1 (Apple); Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
Frankenstein (Netflix); Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers
Hamnet (Focus Features); Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers
Marty Supreme (A24); Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
The Secret Agent (Neon); Emilie Lesclaux, Producer
Sentimental Value (Neon); Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Producers
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers
Train Dreams (Netflix); Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers

Prediction: One Battle After Another 

It has maybe lost a bit of steam but I don't think there's any actual world where this doesn't win. I am definitely a fan of Train Dreams but that's not going to do shit. Sinners maybe but I doubt it.

Best Director

Hamnet (Focus Features), Chloé Zhao
Marty Supreme (A24), Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.), Paul Thomas Anderson
Sentimental Value (Neon), Joachim Trier
Sinners (Warner Bros.), Ryan Coogler

Prediction: PTA gets his well-earned career achievement award in one of his better movies, not just a gimme, so we'll take it.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan in Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent (Neon)

Prediction: Could it really be Michael B. Jordan?! It seemed like it would be Chalamet for a long time but he seems to have soured on the award circuit and Michael B has picked up some momentum. It would make some sense for this to come away with something big and nobody dislikes Michael B. Jordan.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value (Neon)
Emma Stone in Bugonia (Focus Features)

Prediction: Buckley. I really like her in I'm Thinking of Ending Things (2020) and Fargo and she has done a ton of weird awesome shit in bad movies like Men (2022). I wonder if The Bride! (2026) will have a Norbit (2006) effect on her but Jupiter Ascending (2015) was fine for Eddie Redmayne so I think it's all good.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein (Netflix)
Delroy Lindo in Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Sean Penn in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value (Neon)

Prediction: Is it Sean Penn?! I think Stellan still has the edge in what is now a possible upset. He just has an unlauded career, a recent diagnosis, and plenty of good will. Sean Penn does an insanely good job and has momentum with the American voting body. I might go with Penn but I want half credit if Stellan wins.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value (Neon)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value (Neon)
Amy Madigan in Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)

Prediction: Early on this seemed like Madigan, then it seemed like it could be Teyana and now it seems like Madigan again. It is the safe pick and where momentum is going, and I don't think anyone else here is really a lock.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia (Focus Features); Screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein (Netflix); Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet (Focus Features); Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams (Netflix); Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

Prediction: One Battle After Another is the only really big one here. Everything else is too small or too niche (Frankenstein).

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics); Written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident (Neon); Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme (A24); Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value (Neon); Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Written by Ryan Coogler

Prediction: Sinners just seems monumental here, and these two popular movies can split this category easy.

Best Animated Feature

Arco (Neon); Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
Elio (Walt Disney); Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS); Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney); Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino

Prediction: Winds are blowing towards KPOP, which was a huge phenomenon but how can you deny Twotwopia 2? I will deny it! KPOP is assuredly the better film and might get originality points.

Best International Feature

Brazil, The Secret Agent
France, It Was Just an Accident
Norway, Sentimental Value
Spain, Sirat
Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Prediction: This one is kind of tough. Both The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value seem to be getting some mainstream appeal. I think the latter is the one with more of the buzz.

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution (HBO Documentary Films); Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple); Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
Cutting Through Rocks; Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PINK); Nominees to be determined
The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix); Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee

Prediction: Perfect Neighbor is leading and I did see the trailer for this! I feel like Alabama could get in there but Neighbor seems like it has the monumental buzz.

Best Animated Short

Butterfly (Sacrebleu Productions); Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
Forevergreen; Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
The Girl Who Cried Pearls (National Film Board of Canada); Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
Retirement Plan; John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
The Three Sisters (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures); Konstantin Bronzit

Prediction: Pearls sounds like it has the best title.

Best Casting

Hamnet (Focus Features); Nina Gold
Marty Supreme (A24); Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent (Neon); Gabriel Domingues
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Francine Maisler

Prediction: The first ever of a well-deserved category seems like it is going to go to Sinners, which does just feel ripe for this kind of category. A wide range of character actors, established starts, up-and-comers who all play a diverse range of character arcs and relationships. It's the kind of slam dunk this was made for.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein (Netflix), Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme (A24), Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.), Michael Bauman
Sinners (Warner Bros.), Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams (Netflix), Adolpho Veloso

Prediction: Battle has the best while being the most mainstream. That VistaVision does do a lot of the work and while Train Dreams probably has the best framing, and Sinners can just show Mississippi, all they have to do is play that ending car scene.

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein (Netflix); Kate Hawley
Hamnet (Focus Features); Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme (A24); Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ruth E. Carter

Prediction: I don't understand AVABAR here, did they design any costumes for this movie? Most folks say Frankenstein, I am going bold and saying Sinners, this is the kind of film that needs to clean up these categories to match its massive nominations without any really major wins and it feels firmly landed in reality instead of some of these others.

Best Documentary Short

All the Empty Rooms (Netflix); Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO); Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky); Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
The Devil Is Busy (HBO); Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Perfectly a Strangeness (Second Sight Pictures); Alison McAlpine

Prediction: Renaud? I base these from the titles. Filmmakers like voting for films about films, especially when coming up, right?

Best Film Editing

F1 (Apple); Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme (A24); Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value (Neon); Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Michael P. Shawver

Prediction: I am going Battle for everything but not too sure. This could go something weird like F1. 

Best Live-Action Short

Butcher’s Stain (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television); Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
A Friend of Dorothy; Lee Knight and James Dean
Jane Austen’s Period Drama; Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
The Singers (Netflix); Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
Two People Exchanging Saliva (Canal+/The New Yorker); Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Prediction: Oof. Man, I don't know. The one about spitting.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein (Netflix); Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Kokuho (GKIDS); Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine (A24); Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister (Independent Film Company/Shudder); Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Prediction: Yeah, they made the Rock not look like the Rock too much. But if Frank doesn't win costuming it's got to win this and it looks pretty cool and unique.

Best Original Score

Bugonia (Focus Features); Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein (Netflix); Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet (Focus Features); Max Richter
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Jonny Greenwood
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ludwig Goransson

Prediction: Does diagetic music count as score? Because then Sinners. If not, who knows. Let's go with that.

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass/Greenwich Entertainment); Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.); Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (Viva Verdi!); Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix); Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner, Lyric by Nick Cave

Prediction: Could it be "Golden"!? That would be so cool! Song always goes to the song that influenced the movie the most and this is a GOLDEN opportunity yeeeeeee

Best Production Design

Frankenstein (Netflix); Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Hamnet (Focus Features); Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
Marty Supreme (A24); Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

Prediction: What the hell is Hamnet about? Is it getting like best visual effects nominations? Is it some Shakespeare thing? Everything seems to be pointing towards Frankenstein. It's hard to see any upsets frankly in any category this year it seems. Well, I broke ranks for costuming! I guess not here.

Best Sound

F1 (Apple) Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
Frankenstein (Netflix) Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
Sirat (Neon); Amanda Vil

It looks like this is leaning towards F1 and this is such an F1 kind of category, I had thought about this before I even saw it was nominated.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
F1 (Apple); Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal); David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
The Lost Bus (Apple); Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
Sinners (Warner Bros.) Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean

AVABAR I guess.

2025 (and all of history) Movie Watching Summary!

It is time yet again in our long year to review the previous year's movie watching! I make no amends for how much my watching has slipped off the past couple years. Fatherhood and my new interest in Warhammer 40k has really done it in for me. So much so that I think after 11 years of doing this it's time to hang this up. It will be really nice not having to frantically write down everything I see all the time. Not saying this will go away forever but for now this slice of Norwegian Morning Wood is done. So let's update the all-time stats!

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	TOTAL
Total movies	198	220	224	249	200	182	181	202	171	123	73	2023
First-time viewings	n/a	117	133	157	131	110	111	154	102	81	52	1148
First-time viewing %	n/a	53%	59%	63%	66%	60%	61%	76%	60%	66%	71%	63%
Streaming	n/a	55	81	157	118	133	134	160	133	110	67	1148
Streaming %	n/a	25%	36%	63%	59%	73%	74%	79%	78%	89%	92%	63%
TV	86	84	55	10	7	3	11	3	7	9	3	278
TV %	43%	38%	25%	4%	4%	2%	6%	1%	4%	7%	4%	14%
Theater	10	11	12	16	8	2	7	9	6	2	3	86
Theater %	5%	5%	5%	6%	4%	1%	4%	4%	4%	2%	4%	4%
DVD	n/a	70	75	64	63	39	29	23	16	0	0	379
DVD %	n/a	32%	33%	26%	32%	21%	16%	11%	9%	0%	0%	21%

Note that because I did not write down First-time viewings not did I denote between Netflix and Netflix DVD in my first year, when I totaled those percentages I took that year out.

Obviously watching literally one hundred less movies than two years ago is going to make a big impact, but I'm actually shocked that my percentages stayed perfectly in line. I did push first-time viewings this year (quite frankly I can't believe that I was still nearly a third repeat viewings, but those were mostly Holiday favorites, movies on TV, and movies when hanging out with friends. It's funny how it adds up.

It really is just a coincidence that first-time viewings and streaming viewings are somehow exactly identical. In a few more years those averages would balance out. It's  hard to think about ten years ago in 2016 only 25% of movies were streaming. I can see us hanging around that 90% mark, there is just always going to be a handful of films on TV, DVD, or uh...the THEATER that I'll watch.

On that note, for some reason I've never added movies watched on DVD, or maybe more accurately, on disk that I've seen in this grand tally. No big surprise, steady decline and then goose eggs the last two years. That has everything to do with Netflix DVD shuttering.

A few things here - obviously we know TV and DVD movies have declined. But Theater percentages, even if it's small, have been really steady (with the exception of 2020 of course). I am convinced that my habits, even if they are likely way more than the normal human, are representative of normal humans. And that is simply to say that I watch movies on streaming 13 times more than in Theater so why are we caring about the theater at all? I would argue that the theater is assuredly the better movie watching experience, it's communal, the picture is solid, you get the sense of going out, but you just can't beat the convenience, selection, and freedom of streaming at home. With wee kids I will start and stop a movie three or four times across a week to get it in. That's not perfect but it is a way to succeed at this life.

There is however one more bit we can read - my repeat viewings have gone way downhill but so have my TV viewings. This is no coincidence. Also we continually talk about how movies aren't memorable these days and don't have cultural staying power. I really think watching a bunch of these over and over again on TV had a big thing to do with all that!

Alright, let's get to 2025. First, our breakdown by medium:

HBO Max	22	30.1%
Amazon Prime	12	16.4%
Netflix	11	15.1%
Hulu	5	6.8%
YouTube	5	6.8%
Other Streaming	4	5.5%
TV	3	4.1%
Theater	3	4.1%
Tubi	3	4.1%
Planes	2	2.7%
Paramount+	1	1.4%
Disney+	1	1.4%
Apple TV+	1	1.4%
		0.0%
Total Streaming:	67	91.8%

HBO Max wins it! It's been a couple years but I'm glad it's back on top. They really do seem to get all the great movies. On the other end, Peacock is literally zero, and the other services don't really offer much. Hulu had a big drop, but their bag just seems like TV anyway. But we have gotten to the point where why does Paramount+ even exist? It has had many, MANY years to improve and it just hasn't. I really felt like I was watching a ton of Prime movies this year, and I was, but it is just above Netflix. It really is a great location for boffo weird old movies and that's really cool.

1940s	1	1.4%
1960s	1	1.4%
1970s	3	4.2%
1980s	5	6.9%
1990s	11	15.1%
2000s	5	6.9%
2010s	8	11.1%
2020s	39	54.2%
2024	11	15.3%
2025	24	33.3%

There is definitely shenanigans going on here! How did I watch only five movies from the 2000s (three of which were Final Destination movies?!) and more from the 90s than the 2010s? And of both decades the only first fime viewing was Kingsman: The Golden Circle (2017) which I literally watched at 10 pm on New Year's Eve (no, I did not know that stat going into it!). I might be in a zone where those decades have been pretty thoroughly examined by both living through them and blogging about them, but the 80s and 90s still have a lot of gems I haven't uncovered. The past twenty five years are more comfort food right now I suppose. Or it's just really skewed because I only watched 72 movies and this would have been balanced had I hit 200+.

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	AVERAGE
January	19	17	23	16	22	15	15	17	16	13	3	16
February	11	15	12	14	17	21	15	11	10	11	5	13
March	15	12	18	16	14	27	16	12	16	14	2	15
April	15	23	15	25	22	23	13	12	18	7	4	16
May	15	17	22	13	19	22	29	19	12	11	10	17
June	20	16	25	8	18	19	24	18	17	8	8	16
July	16	15	16	18	17	15	10	15	17	12	6	14
August	12	14	18	25	18	25	14	17	6	10	8	15
September	10	14	16	13	20	16	12	14	12	6	4	12
October	14	20	17	10	19	24	10	15	18	15	11	16
November	12	18	18	10	18	21	20	16	9	6	1	14
December	22	21	20	28	20	21	22	16	20	10	11	19

I still don't know that there's that much value in tracking months. But yeesh, just look at my 2025. November almost escaped without me seeing anything, until Franksgiving. Some of these are still double digit respectable, but barely. I still don't know if there's a lot of rhyme and reason here. February is down until it's not in 2020, same with September until it's not in 2019. May trended down the past three years but also had my biggest month ever in 2021.

So that's it! I have watched 2022 movies in the past 11 years, which is an average of about 183 per year, so every other day. Not too bad. I do fear my stats will just get worse and worse so time to go out when I'm slightly caving.

In general though, I really liked the films I saw in 2025! Here are my top picks for movies I saw for the first time:

The White Buffalo	1977
Harley Davidson and the Marlboro Man	1991
Matinee	1993
The Long Kiss Goodnight	1996
Ghost Dog: Way of the Samurai	1999
Psycho Goreman	2021

None of these are good but they're all weird and interesting! The White Buffalo may have the most accurate old timey western dialogue I've ever heard in a film. Harley Davidson and the Marlboro Man is just an absolute trip. Matinee is actually good and compelling, a fun family film. I knew going in that The Long Kiss Goodnight has gotten a bad rap for no reason and I did enjoy it. Ghost Dog is this meld of everything and Psycho Goreman is just fun for the whole family.

Good night!