NMW's Salute to 2021: MOVIES!

Well folks, it's finally that magical time of year - ranking time! We're going to look back and reflect on everything that happened this year. Somehow the movie landscape felt even more fractured than in 2020. Maybe that's just because 2020 still had a lot of fun movies to burn off. In 2021 we really felt the impact. And super self-admittedly, I did not see all the 2021 movies I wanted to. Some years I just kind of make it up, but this year I wanted to really stick with just those that I actually laid my eyes on. I barely saw more than ten passable films, so maybe wait until next year for a more proper ranking?

Speaking of which...

2020 Re-rank

Trial of the Chicago 7

Extra Ordinary

Palm Springs

Da 5 Bloods

Buffaloed

Another Round

I'm Thinking of Ending Things

Color Out of Space

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Great example! Six films actually remain from last year, but my #1 fell to #6. Oh well. I actually still like Mank more than I thought I would a year from last year, but not enough to crack my Top 10. Nomandland and Promising Young Woman feel like the kind of towering films that will be high for a long time.

Okay, ready for 2021?

#10: Raya and the Last Dragon

For some reason, it seems like no one cares about Raya and the Last Dragon. No one's talking about, I even ready a weary take that bemoaned a supposed inevitable Oscar win for its studio and Chinese pandering. This film was great. Awkwafina was miscast, just because she sounds too much like Awkwafina, but this was the most OCD-plugging film of all time. It's the kind of movie that can really inspire a little kid, and I pictured a younger self going crazy unpacking the different kingdoms, cultures, and ramifications of personal choices. It was a lot of fun, a compelling adventure, and one that I honestly think folks avoid because it's Disney, Chinese, and starring women. Oh well.

#9: The Sparks Brothers

I really just wanted to talk about how I somehow have this big Sparks gap. How had I not heard of this band? They are so up my alley and when I saw the trailer I started listening to their music constantly for six months and developed a genuine love for their ever-changing sound. I just missed them for so long. But it's never too late to become a Sparks fan. You may think The Beatles: Get Back was the best piece of media to explore the evolution of creative process this year, but give up some credit to The Sparks Brothers, which dives deep into band and song formation more than getting bogged down in the personal drama and drug use like many other musician biopics. The documentary format helps, as does the fact that they've never done drugs and made 25 albums.

#8: The Suicide Squad

Listen, all your lists will include Drive My Car or Shiva Baby but I want to talk about how much I loved The Suicide Squad. It is a positively wacky film with a huge budget, and the greatest, most expensive course correction in franchise blockbuster history. It's a simultaneous sequel and remake and I loved everything about it. The off-beat but three-dimensional characters, the comic book zaniness, and the well-paced and choreographed action scenes that also advance character growth are all high points for other superhero films to shoot for, especially with smaller bullets.

#7: The Power of the Dog

I think this was good. It was definitely boring, but rewards folks who pay attention. Also, the ending is not that ridiculous, he had an open wound with bad cow hide, that's that. It's a strange film with no actual protagonist, though. Maybe it's Benedict, but he's kept at such a distance that you never get into his head. Maybe it's Kirsten Dunst, but she also fades late in the film. We never really get into Jesse Plemons, and Kodi just pops in so later and with such foggy intentions that it's hard to get into his head, too. These are slights in the hands of a lesser filmmaker, but Jane Campion presents this as a puzzle to unlock without ever sacrificing compellingness. Okay, it definitely gets boring when she's just trying to learn piano.

#6: Barb and Star Go To Vista del Mar

This sneaky little bastard of a movie. It has flaws for sure, the tired villainous albino trope being at the top, but from the get go it's hard to understand what movie I actually clicked on in Hulu. But it settles into his wackiness, presents cringe, then backs off, pays off, and slays off like no film this year. Jamie Dornan and Annie Mumolo are fantastic, Kristen Wiig surprisingly less so, but it really is a film like no one else is making. And it got totally buried, so go watch it. Pray like Edgar, my favourite movie song of the year.

#5: The Harder They Fall

I'd consider this an average movie experience, until a huge twist at the end, but since it also stars all Black Cowboys it instantly becomes unique. That should certifiably be understood as a dreary take on the industry, considering how much black folk shaped the west (and are both comparatively underrepresented and...the reason they're called cowboys). I don't know why I need to know who Bass Reeves is from HBO's Watchmen. Anyway, it's directed with engaging panache by Jeymes Samuel, who hopefully had more in the tank like this. It's equal parts fun and serious from start to finish and presents its blackness as natural rather than particular. Hope for us all.

#4: Don't Look Up

AKA the late 2010s: the movie. Jeez, this film. Since parting with Ferrell, Adam McKay has been really terribly scattershot. I like The Big Short (2015) and Vice (2018), but this is somehow his most complete and traditional narrative. It's also bonkers, but really not that bonkers. In fact I hesitate to think that people in real life would be this rational. It's like a disaster movie without leadership being a given and the ending is really fulfilling. Our decisions have consequences, folks! This could be about climate change, or COVID-19, or anything else. We have some deep problems embedded in our culture, and unfortunately, I agree with the media moguls here that Leo and Jenn screaming at us isn't going to move the needle.

#3: No Sudden Move

Remember No Sudden Move? The fisheye Soderbergh movie that dropped on HBOMax over the summer? Everyone seemed to love it but then immediately forget. It's just that kind of culture, I guess. I still liked it. Definitely boring for stretches, and as soon as you realize that Don Cheadle and Benicio del Toro don't actually have any influence on the plot (and that the plot is also about a real-life auto industry conspiracy to suppress the catalytic-converter), it becomes far more watchable. It's subtle, fueled by stellar acting, an impressive cast, and ultimately significant stakes. I'd like to watch it again.

#2: The Green Knight

It was tough between these last two. In many ways, these were the only two movies I truly liked this year, and in my annual review of top films seen for the first time regardless of release year, these were the only two that really stood out. The Green Knight is layered in symbolism to unpack, fueled by unorthodox casting choices that enhance the core message, and updates an ancient tale to a modern audience while avoiding the flash of easy commercial filmmaking. The ending is righteous, ambiguous, and takes its cake while eating it too. Make no mistake, this film delivers on all the promises it makes. It's also ridiculously beautiful, finding breahtaking vistas in muddy rainy England, from forest to cliff to scrungy city. It's a film firing on all possible cylinders.

#1: PIG

That's right. Nic Cage. Haggard. Trying to find his pig. This premise could so easily become ridiculous. Like a John Wick (2014) parody, or...well, like any Nic Cage film. But the film treats its subject matter seriously, and slowly unravels what this guy's deal is. It also delivers on its promises, and never backs down from the stated fact that this truffle-hunter was the real deal chef, but he understands life perhaps better than any cinema character ever. I said it. I watched this on a plane. It's so good.

Films I saw that barely missed this list:

Bo Burnham: INSIDE

Plan B

Bad Trip

DUNE

Films I did not see that could be here next year:

The Tragedy of MacBeth

Licorice Pizza

French Dispatch

Last Night in SOHO

House of Gucci

That's it. I feel more regretful than usual, mostly because some of these picks are just terribly commercial, but I dug what I dig and that's it, baby. We'll see if any befallen 2021 film can creep back in my re-rank next year, but for now - that's it! Hello 2022!

2019 Will Be Better!

You heard it here, first, folks! The year 2019 will be the greatest year for movies in the 10,000 history of humanity. You'll be grateful that Norwegian Morning Wood broke this story first! Last year we actually weren't too bad in our looking ahead predictions. Chances are pretty high that this will be the exact End of Year List we go through next December. Let's begin:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters - 05/19



This may seem weird. Godzilla (2014) was kinda shitty for the first 90 minutes but delivered a satisfying ending fight. I didn't even see Kong: Skull Island (2017) but it apparently wasn't total shit. That's something I guess. I'm still a fan of the Big G, though, and a film that promises Rodan, Mothra, and the biggest bastard of them all, King Ghidorah in fully realized glory all directed by Michael Dougherty of Trick R Treat (2007) and Krampus (2015) fame sounds good on paper. Even though Toho knocked anything American Godzilla can do out of the par with Shin Godzilla (2016), this should give us a good dose of monsters, fire breath, and hurricane wing winds. Or it'll just blow all its goodwill like Gareth Edwards' take.

Avengers: Endgame - 04/26



Infinity War was the culmination of a lot of threads building up to the ultimate battle against a Universal threat. Then Thanos won and everybody died. Endgame promises a lot, but will it deliver a lame cop out or some true pathos for these characters? The trailer pretends we're not just going to go back in time via Ant-Man and the Quantum Realm and change everything. Still - THIS, I promise, THIS ONE will be the last one, I swear. At any rate, it's a momentous shift from the past ten years of Marvel Superhero films (totally this one and not another one ten years from now), and we just gotta see how this ends. Again.

Detective Pikachu - 05/19



What the hell is this? How is the first live action Pokemon movie a thoroughly American affair starring Ryan Reynolds? Based on the Detective Pikachu offshoot brand of all things. Where's my Pokemon Snap movie?! The trailer had charm, nostalgia, wit, mystery, and a whole lot of really weird and creepy furry shenanigans to pique my interest. Sure it's based on a previous property, but it looks bold in a way other retreads don't. Could this become the greatest video game movie of all time?

Spider-Man: Far From Home - 07/05



If you know anything about me by now, it's that I like my superhero movies real, real weird. Jake Gyllenhaal as Mysterio fits that bill and that's a major reason to be excited for this. We got a trailer just under the wire, and we can already deduce a few things - like, are the elemental monsters attacking London all a ruse or do we really get Hydro-Man and Molten Man in the mix? I just hope we can get something like this or this, or hell, even Mysterio created Old Man Logan. Mysterio is the shit and totally bonkers. His powers are so limited - he's just a special effects artist...but generally that's enough leeway to make him the most powerful villain of all time.

Joker - 10/04

This anti-hero movie is in the same slot as Venom (2018) was this year - and although that movie was fairly dumb, it was still a nice little side adventure through brain eating and lethal protection. Joker is good enough to attract Joaquin Phoenix to work for Todd Phillips alongside Robert DeNiro and Zazie Beetz for some reason. This is the age we're at now - where we get the giant bombastic superhero movies, but they're also just our psychotic character dramas and dark comedies now, too. Whatever it takes. Phillips always walks that weird dark edge, and Joaquin is amazing, so hopes are high. This is in addition to the fact that every non-Jared Leto Joker has been instantly iconic.

Ad Astra - 05/24

This is like Interstellar (2014) but with Brad Pitt and Tommy Lee Jones, directed by James Gray, who has given us many long, contemplative films, most recently Lost City of Z (2016), which is totally underrated. We don't know too much more about this other than it has something to do with finding Tommy Lee Jones in space across some long journey. We're down.

Six Underground - Sometime

This is a $150 million Michael Bay Netflix movie starring Ryan Reynolds written by the dudes who made Deadpool (2016). This is the biggest no brainer of all time. Despite spending most of his time churning out Transformers movies that have all gotten worse with time, Bay did gift us with Pain & Gain (2013) which showed that his whip-fast, heavy cut, in-your-face style can actually be extremely effective with the right source material. Plus it's Netflix - total no brainer watch.

Knives Out - 11/27

Moving on from blockbusters, this is some kind of Daniel Craig murder mystery by Rian Johnson. Listen, The Last Jedi (2017) gets better every time I watch it, and I'm excited with what he can do with a smaller story. There's not a ton of info yet about this, and to be honest, a who-dunnit is either contrived or gives itself away too early, but Johnson can dig into these tropes and give us something interesting. I hope.

The Lighthouse - Someday

In 2016 Robert Eggers gave us The Witch, and this is his follow-up - some kind of monster maritime thing starring Willem Dafoe and Robert Pattinson. We know it's a black and white horror fantasy of some kind, which seems right up Eggers' alley. The Witch is endlessly rewarding and Eggers is an incredible visual filmmaker who is also pretty proud of brutally murdering babies in his first scene. Sea Monsters are in these days.

Uncut Gems - Whenever

Speaking of Rober Pattinson, the Safdie Brothers were last seen behind Good Time (2017) but this time nabbed Adam Sandler, LaKeith Stanfield, and Idina Menzel for some reason. This is a "what the hell" kind of stunt casting, but I was really into their style in Good Time. Sandler has moments of brilliance whenever he's not in an Adam Sandler movie and this is some kind of diamond crime drama movie. Maybe he's a crusty jewel thief? Whatever, we'll see it.

Other Movies That Might Not Suck:

Rocketman - To me, Bohemian Rhapsody didn't go nearly gay enough. Hopefully the Elton John version can correct that.
Ford vs Ferrari - James Mangold does a car rivalry film
Boss Level - the beginning of the long and storied acting career of Rob Gronkowski
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - I don't think Tarantino is totally washed of his Weinstein association, and the Manson connection here seems exploitative, but this movie will probably be very good.
SHAZAM! - DC is finally getting fun and weird
Hobbes and Shaw - the only two great remaining parts of the Fast and Furious franchise
Velvet Buzzsaw - This also just got a trailer and it's weird as hell. I love how Jake Gyllenhaal has gone crazy.
Brightburn - what if Superman was evil. Or more like, what if he just was Superman - we couldn't handle that shit. This should poke holes in all of Man of Steel (2013)'s pretensions.
Cold Pursuit - what the fuck is the tone of this trailer going for? This will always be known as the Liam Neeson snowplow movie.
Us - this looks nuts. Lupita, Peele, and M'Baku are a good combination.

There are some other big films that we've ignored here. If I were to get real, Captain Marvel looks okay in the sense that I'll definitely catch up with it on Netflix in a few months, but I don't see it elevating above Doctor Strange (2016) good but not great levels. We're also getting a ton of Disney live action sequels that I could totally care less about (somehow Dumbo, Aladdin, AND The Lion King). There are also high profile Disney Animated films Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2, that I don't really think can improve on the perfect of their previous installments.

Hmm. These were all Disney movies. The studio is either going to have an amazing year or a terrible one. With Mary Poppins Returns (2018) sinking I wonder if the studio that could do no wrong will turn a corner. Then again, they've had at least as many high profile flops, from John Carter (2012) to Pete's Dragon (2016) to A Wrinkle in Time (2018) over the past few years. We'll see.

What are you hyped for?

First Impressions: Infinity War

What'd I say? Raw emotional honesty? I'd like to push what this blog can do, but for now, let's just talk about Infinity War (2018).

Do I need to summarize the plot? You saw it, right? Actually, it's only sold about 50 million tickets so far, so chances are you didn't see it. Honestly, who is the person who went to the theater this weekend to catch Bad Samaritan (2018)? SPOILERS for this movie have been awfully precious and before I tell you that Dumbledore dies while gang-banging Drax and Carrie Fisher. I mean, what a Saturnalia.

Saturnalia was the first holiday I thought of for that joke.

We're definitely talking SPOILERS, though, because for this movie everything can be a spoiler, I know I wanted no details at all going into it, and I think I was rewarded, and after some careful thought, the only major theme here is Death and facing Death, so naturally the movie gets pretty ruined by any discussion of itself. We'll get into that more in a second, but let's start with some general cultural context:

Ahh - remember this fun scene

The great irony with crossover movies is that they're simultaneously sensational, but also very transparent in their effort to be sensational, which leaves the feeling kind of hokey. It's this idea, where you can tell the marketing is exasperated and fake. Where Infinity War succeeds, and I mean, really really succeeds is how little it cares about this. It wears its forced interactions and ultimate marketing ploy on its sleeve while moving so damn fast that we don't even have time to realize how hollow everything is.

Therein lies further irony. Is the art really hollow if it can disguise itself that well? Is that insidious or actually, frankly more difficult to pull off than a banal simple indie entry? I give this film a lot of credit for never once feeling its two-hour and thirty-six minute runtime. At the same time, however, this isn't actually even a movie anymore. It would make no sense without (most of) the previous 18 movies in this series. Infinity War does not and cannot exist in a vacuum. This is a brand. A cog. Perhaps just a piece of marketing. It requires incredible gumption to pull off, because it has an immense reliance on general populations being pretty familiar with all of the forty some-odd characters who make appearances here.

Could you see this without seeing anything else? I'm curious about our cultural osmosis. Even if you never saw any other film, do people know who Iron Man and Captain America are through just omnipresent commercials and billboards and Dr. Pepper cans? Do we get the general vibe? I kind of reflect on The Fast and the Furious movies. The first one I saw in theaters may have literally been Fast Five (2011), but in that ten years I had seen so many on TV, learned the general characters, heard from friends that I felt like I hadn't missed a beat.

Honestly, future filmmakers need to study this movie to understand peak efficiency. There is no bullshit here. There are a handful of moments that slow down and give some great character moments, but more than anything this movie knows how and when to move forward, when to care about development, when to trust the audience to put pieces together themselves, and when to cram an explainer line in somewhere. It has continued this idea of relying on the ridiculousness of its premise to just let other insane comic book elements pass by the wayside. Like, how does the Black Order keep showing up where the Stones are? Who cares, it doesn't matter. Isn't it nutty and fantastic for Iron Man to be on another planet, meeting and fighting weirdos? Let's quickly move on, we know the Guaridans. There's time for development, but then this movie wisely leans on the past ten years of development.

My first impression was that this film relies on plot over story. And there's so much plot. There are so many events that happen one after another without much in terms of an actual story, or at least a relatively simple actual story. In its own way, this is also what makes this movie work. There are so many characters off doing their own disconnected things, but they all actually tie into a remarkably simple idea - Thanos is acquiring the all-powerful MacGuffins from every other Marvel Movie, and the heroes need to stop him in a variety of ways. This structure shouldn't work, but it does. If your content is good, if it's distracting and iconic, it doesn't really matter what your structure is.

Some of this felt like checking off boxes on how these characters could run into each other, but it's all basically plausible. The Guardians check out a distress signal in Space - it's Asgard blowed up. Doc Strange seeks out Tony, Tony mentions Cap, Cap mentions Wakanda. It's a little forced, but the thrill of seeing all these disparate characters interact masks everything else. Seeing amazing team-ups of people we know would be friends, like Bucky and Rocket or Strange and Tony or Thor and Groot is fantastic. Besides its excess of plot, the best way to describe the feeling of watching this film is like watching your college friends meet your high school friends. Worlds are colliding! My favorite moment ever may be seeing Tony Stark left with Nebula at the end. That's the most amazing random team-up ever. I hope they hook up.

Instead of log-jamming the film, it wisely disperses all its characters all doing their own thing across the Universe, working towards one goal - stop Thanos. At that point we ought to chat Thanos, because he's the other element that unifies this film. He's the main character - the constant threat who is given plenty of his own moments, even if they somewhat come off as unearned, particularly his emotional connection with Gamora that's the crux of the film.

Thanos does a few important things. First, his goal drives the only major theme of the movie - death and how we deal with it. He also wins and therefore has a complete arc, which means that this is only a two-parter cliffhanger if you think he isn't the main character. He succeeds at his own goals, at great personal sacrifice.

Before we sink into that - because this film, as we noted before, cannot exist on its own merits and owes as much to its future as its past when examining it, let's quickly talk about Thanos' plan. He wants to balance out the Universe by killing half of it. In the comics this was to appease his crush on a personification Death itself. Here it's about overpopulation or some garbage It's kind of weak without the added insanity, but the Russos felt like adding personifications of eternal elements was one step they weren't ready for. I don't think you needed to actually have Lady Death as a purple-hooded Grim Reaper chick, but that general Death worship would have worked fine on its own instead of a kind of hokey and baseless reason for wiping out half the Universe.

We'll talk about stakes more in a second, but this film does do a wonderful job of setting up Thanos as the ultimate bad guy right at the beginning. It is actually kind of shitty that within the first thirty seconds Infinity War undoes the entire point of THOR: Ragnarok (2017) as Thanos obliterates the remnants of Asgard. All that "Asgard is a people, not a place" refugee message is wiped out. While this undermines his own movie, this does give Thor perhaps the most motivation to defeat Thanos, and it's fitting that he eventually comes the closest.

And that scene with Rocket is the best scene in any movie Thor has been in - or that Rocket's been in for that matter. You feel his loss so intensely. Ragnarok's tone never sat well with me for how deep and heavy its content was - Thor is still funnier here than he was in early Avengers films, but that tone is a little more relevant to how much he's lost in his life.

The intro is relatively simple. It's basically just The Worf Effect as Thanos quickly dispatches Hulk, who then remains scared for the rest of the film. I'd also be curious to see how this is rectified, but it's a nice convenient way to get Banner to shine in a way he often doesn't. What's more important is that this shows how brutal this movie is - there's no safety net. We might think that Hulk is the Avengers' ace that could at least go toe to toe with the big bad purple dude - Loki's "We have a Hulk" is a masterful callback, but then all expectations are subverted as he gets his ass kicked. We're immediately at a loss. It was crucial to get that fight out of the way and set up over two hours of realizing we're all boned.

It almost feels like a conspiracy theory that Marvel churned out dumb, disposable villains for ten years only so that Thanos can come in and be a really credible threat. His stakes are real, personal, and important on a Universal scale. It's as if there was this endless parade of doppelgangers and moustache-twirlers so Thanos looked better. Also I like the theory that Thanos made his move once the Ancient One, Odin, and Ego were dead.

Anyway - Death.

The big thing to note is that because of so much public outside knowledge we know that Death isn't permanent. Not only have characters continuously re-appeared in the MCU before (Bucky, Loki, Red Skull IN THIS VERY MOVIE - totally forced an unnecessary by the way), but we know there are Strange, Spidey, and Black Panther flicks coming down the pipeline. Like with most things, Film Crit Hulk sums this up the best when he says that as soon as we saw Black Panther turn to ash, we could call Marvel's bluff. That's the exact moment when we knew this was BS. We could buy most of these other characters dying, maybe permanently. If anyone is not going anywhere anytime soon, it's T'Challa, whose franchise by himself is the only one to make on its own money to nearly equal the Avengers crossover events.

There are plenty of ways around this - we have literal reality and time-controlling stones at play, along with plenty of theories, from the Ant-Man's quantum realm jumping in to the fray to the possibility that everyone's simply locked in the Soul Stone. That makes it feel like some earlier deaths like Heimdall, Loki, and Gamora could be permanent (unless of course that vision at the end is within the Soul Stone, where Gamora's soul is contained as well - at which point Guardians Vol. 3 (2020) comes out like Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007) trying to find their main character's soul in purgatory.

When we look at this, it's then hard to really feel the emotion this movie wants us to. There's this sideways glance we give our screens like "Okay, guys, whatever." We expected at least Cap and Iron Man deaths - the old guys who have been here forever and want out. Iron Man even still had a huge role in this film, and his one on one with Thanos was amazing. His nano-tech tech summon ability was a little stretch, it reminded me of DC's Cyborg or Metallo (see - I like DC, too). Anyway, the point is, that's a fine place to die, but if we look at his arc, it required a little more.

Ever since Iron Man 3 (2013), everything he's done has been driven by guilt. He needs Doctor Strange to sacrifice the Time Stone for his life (more on that in a bit), and then more importantly, needs to see Peter Parker die in his arms to seal this five-year arc of failing to protect the people he loves despite how advanced his tech becomes. It's hubris drawn out across five movies past his own trilogy ended, mostly because they make money, but it should also make his ending sacrifice (presumably) in next year's sequel to be more potent. Or maybe instead he will find some catharsis. We'll see.

In this way, the stakes become less about character deaths than how other characters deal with loss. We know there's more Spider-Man movies. That doesn't take away from Peter Parker terrified face turning into ash in Tony's arms. For their whole relationship Tony has tried to put limits on him, but he's proven Tony wrong. Finally, it's too late and Tony can do nothing to save him. We see this with Cap and Bucky, Rocket and Groot as Rocket loses his best friend again, this time knowing he won't grow back from a twig.

I don't totally get the idea that with no threat of death there's no stakes. We don't watch movies this way. When we're watching Die Hard (1988), we know it's not suddenly going to feature Ghost John McClane. Stakes are about challenges - we pretty much know that our characters are going to live. When they don't we get like, R.I.P.D. (2013) or something. Or when a character is nigh invulnerable like Superman, or to go the Ryan Reynolds route again, Deadpool - it's about setting up personal challenges for that character to face that don't have to do with dying.

So with Infinity War, it's less of "Will they'll be back?" than "How will they come back?" How will the surviving heroes deal with the death of their friends, unthinkable odds, a severe blow to motivation. How can they still be heroes when their main opponent has both the power and motivation to indiscriminately murder half the universe? Another way of thinking of this is that even though we know these new core characters are coming back, the characters in the movie don't know that.

Now, this is obviously me defending the film a little bit and making excuses, but the other side is easy. Its "this sucks." And maybe it does, that's fair, but doesn't require much thinking about what these films actually mean. Also, it's somewhat important to remember that not every audience member has that cultural context or obsesses over release dates. The guy I saw it with didn't even recognize the Captain Marvel symbol at the end. It's continuously crazy for me to remember that I'm always the nerdiest guy in the theater. I'm the one who shouts out "Adam Warlock!" at the end of Guardians Vol 2 (2017). My curse. My blessing.

For kids, especially this is a traumatic moment. And uhh...we should kind of remember that these movies should probably be reserved for little kids. Angry, over-analyzing adult nerds ruin these for everyone. FOR EVERYONE.

However, we are truly at a point where culture and corporations collide. We know more that these characters are returning because it would be financially irresponsible for Disney to keep them dead than anything else. That's our MAIN reason for feeling emotionally cheated at the end of this film. That's totally insane in its own way.

Tony's gettin upset!

As for the other characters, it was great to see Gamora as a huge lynchpin for this movie. She has her own role in the Guardians films, but hasn't really been the star until now. The other Guardians are all spot-on doing their things, and I love that as soon as we here "Rubberband Man" we know they're coming up. It's pitch-perfect stuff. The Captain America crew gets less screentime than I thought they would, and even though much of the latter third or so is set in Wakanda, the Black Panther crew definitely feels along for the ride rather than dealing with the ramifications of an alien invasion on their home turf (c'mon - they didn't even want to share with the White Gorillas a few months ago).

Despite this, Cap sums up what might be the film's thesis - the concept of a trading lives. Even though he says they don't trade lives, that happens for literally every stone Thanos gets, except the Power Stone, which we don't see. Loki trades the Space Stone for Thor's life, even though he's killed immediately after. Peter Quill attempts to mercy kill Gamora after Thanos acquires the Reality Stone, but Thanos prevents him. Thanos then sacrifices Gamora to acquire the Soul Stone. Strange trades the Time Stone for Tony's life. Finally, Scarlet Witch attempts to destroy the Mind Stone (killing Vision in the process), but Thanos reverses time and takes it himself, killing Vision. Thus, every stone is actually a life trade.

It's fitting that goody two-shoes Captain America's ideology proves the best direct counter to Thanos' philosophy. Cap is always about finding another way, the irony being that of course he just fights, because war is actually all he knows. I'd be curious to see this develop a little more.

As a side note, one other thing I did really enjoy was how clever the stones were. Movies aren't really clever anymore. Thanos uses each stone once he gets them, fully expanding his powers. He tricks his enemies and it's important how sequentially he acquires everything. Power and Space facilitate everything else. Reality more helps him cover his own tracks, but the Time stone is crucial to him getting the Mind Stone. Some of this is surely contrived, but it's damned fun to watch, and that's also what this movie is all about. And despite being all about death, this movie is also actually really funny. It's wonderful.

There are problems here for sure, and it's hard to find something really true that Infinity War is saying beyond a giant corporate promotion, but it's also so good and fun that we ignore that. We're all sheep I guess. For all this studio's talk about finality, it's also very clear that that's just extended a year, and even at that point we're not seeing any finality ever.

Ingrinity Blar

Here we are folks. A week early, mostly to not run into Solo (2018) - ahh synergy, we have one of the most hotly anticipated films of all time. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) has been brewing for ten solid years and could very well become one of the biggest movies of all time.

That's all a given. I personally think this will easily outweigh some of the more recent Star Wars (maybe not The Force Awakens [2015] absurd $936 million domestic, but surely in that $700-800 million range). I mean, Black Panther (2018) just hit $681 million for the #3 all-time slot. The only question is just how high this thing can go. Maybe it does crack a billion at home and beat AVABAR (2009) worldwide. It's pre-release figures are insane and the hype is real.

Also, every MacGuffin becomes a Super-MacGuffin!

This is a different level of hype, though. It's almost a taken for granted hype. There was a certain level of excitement when Marvel first started cranking out really good movies that highlighted comparatively lesser-known, "B-level" superheros like Iron Man, and when they teased a major crossover Avengers movie, that was a big deal. In the end, that feels very surface-level though, now. The universe has pivoted more and more and steadily grown, actually teasing Thanos for longer than we were teased of the concept of an Avengers team-up. That timespan has given people plenty of time to catch-up, canonize all 18 Marvel movies in the popular consciousness, and expand little niches of the universe like sci-fi and magic and technology until they become as commonplace as they are in the preceding comic book source material.

We're at this weird crossroads now, then. There's a distinct feeling of finality to all this. I obviously have abstained from a lot of trailer watching, as per regulation, which is easier because I'm currently lacking a TV. That's where this hype is different. Advertisements are needed to get randos into the seats for sure, but for most folk this is just a culmination of a ten-year journey with these characters. You get the feeling we could see some major deaths, shake-ups, or changes.

And this is all supposedly only Part I, right? I mean, there's another one slated for next year. I suppose they want to keep that under wraps. We'll probably get a full trailer as the post-credits sequence of Infinity War. But there's where that weird crossroad comes into play. We're casually talking about this movie breaking a domestic billion dollar mark. They're going to make more. While this will likely be simply with a new cast of subtly shifting actors, it still represents a big change in what the MCU has long held sacred.

That's why I reject a lot of "superhero fatigue" bullshit. The public is clearly not fatigued. I think that critics are, but that's because they have always had their own little indie world. And when you strictly analyze a lot of these films, they're not totally great, but by and large they're not bad, either. An 18-film multi-arcing story with multiple directors, writers, and sometimes cast members is actually marvelously impressive to pull off. It's just that we need to see it as such.

This mostly started with Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014), which I still consider the first Marvel film that really became a great film on its own. That was also the first one to gleefully undercut the rules of its own universe. It's a common complaint that all Marvel films are the same, and that's largely true for pesky origin stories that we should really stop caring about exploring, but the arc from Winter Soldier through Age of Ultron (2015), CIVIL WAR (2016), and now Infinity War is a character study and test for this group of superheroes on par with anything the Academy regularly favors. It's a legitimately carefully crafted slow burn of competing ideologies, with political and personal ramifications that echo beyond their individual worlds. Yeah, okay - Ant-Man (2015). There are some duds, but their duds are at least fun duds, worthy ways to spend a Sunday afternoon.

Their latest films just keep pushing. THOR: Ragnarok (2017) was so successful because it wasn't afraid to literally break everything iconic about its character. It's this kind of confidence and daring that keeps attracting fans as well as keeping them interested. This is often mistaken for weird conspiracies like Disney is paying off critics or we're just all biased, but this also largely ignored that all those same people loved Wonder Woman (2017). It's not the studio, it's the product. We respond to good product.

That's where I'm skeptical of this "superhero fatigue" statement. This may have been more true in that 2003-2007 zone where we had Daredevil (2003) and Fantastic Four (2005) and Ghost Rider (2007), all these sub-par films that didn't quite know what they wanted to be. Were they action films or adventure films or expressly "superhero"? Looking back, they are all actually distinctive, but also all pretty bad. Is it worth it to have the inverse? All good films, but none that are distinct? Again, I'd like to think that's not even true, as Marvel continues to surprise with film after film, going bolder, weirder, and truer to its insane source origins. Unarguably, FOX is actually doing this on a grander scale with Deadpool (2016), Logan (2017), Legion, and The New Mutants (2019), although for some reason its core franchise is stuck spinning its wheels. I digress.

We're not in superhero fatigue. That's grossly inaccurate. That's like saying we're sick of comic books. Sure, that does actually happen as the industry waxes and wanes (ahem - 90s), but these characters also all have 50 years under their belts now. And they've become such a pop cultural focus point that there are countless iterations that can be developed and re-developed and pushed and pulled, constructed and deconstructed. What's amazing is that Watchmen (2009) came out nine years ago - barely at the tip of our current boom. What should have been a genuine deconstruction was instead another nail. Winter Soldier deconstructs more.

Is there blockbuster fatigue? It's more accurate to say that studios have poured a lot more money into making things "happen" when they probably shouldn't have. We just saw Rampage (2018) become one of the most expensive B-movies of all time, if it hadn't been for Pacific Rim Uprising (2018) a few weeks earlier. The fallacy here is that studios feel like they have to spend a ton of money to make a huge film that will recoup enough to justify its costs, but in reality they should spend less, make a solid B-movie and be content to make their money back. This line of thought will never happen, in large part to the mentality created by The Avengers (2012) and Disney's studio posturing.

This may be crazy to think about, but Disney (parent company Buena Vista) has only won the years 2016 and 2017. You have to go back to 2003 to find the last year they were the top-grossing studio. In 2015 Universal was crushing everyone through a combination of Vin Diesel and Jurassic World (2015), yet it's crazy how much of an afterthought Fallen Kingdom (2018) now feels. The slap-hazard marketing that doesn't know what genre the film is and a remarkable revulsion to the film that's happened in the past three years doesn't really help things.

Even in 2012 alongside The Avengers, Buena Vista was edged by SONY under Skyfall, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Hotel Transylvania, and 21 Jump Street. Warner Bros also beat them, mostly through a combination of The Dark Knight Rises and the first Hobbit movie. 2012 was also the year of John Carter. Enough said. The age we're in now is that every possibly big film is treated as a blockbuster on The Avengers level. When people say superhero fatigue they possibly really just mean blockbuster fatigue, which is also isn't really a thing. Is Rampage all that different than 10,000 BC (2008) or Mighty Joe Young (1998) or Action Jackson (1988)? I don't really think so, although it just has a bigger budget and more hoopla. But just like these flicks, we won't remember it beyond a quick byline in 2028.

All this is to say that in an era where everything with the slightest hint of possible recognition is treated like a mega-hit blockbuster and every potential franchise is a shared universe, when The Avengers come along it's the real thing. It's become that blockbuster that's beyond blockbusters. It's what people actually wait for and are organically invested in, rather than something thrown together with the Rock to make a quick buck. I'm really shitting on Rampage right now, which I haven't actually seen but assume is stupid, but in fairness that's only because I've seen all the marketing and read the reviews.

Man I hope Mantis is the main protagonist. Make Thanos feel!

This is what drives these comic book movies even further away from the other pretenders to the thrown. Not only can these flicks not emulate the success of Disney and Marvel, but their existence enforces their inferiority, bolstering the growing track record of the comic book adaptation studio. We aren't fatigued. Movies have always been stupid. Disney has found a really nice way to use corporate synergy and backing to create movies that are actually innovative within the genre (or at least appear so, there is a strong argument to be had that most of their universe structural changes are still surface level) and keep viewers coming back for more. This has been made better with relevant, beautiful casting, confident production decisions, and deep, accurate marketing campaigns. That's really it. It's a deep well to draw from, but they've drawn from it well - ho ha!

I'm excited for this. There's always the spectre of disappointment in a big film, but it's worth it just to see where we've all been headed these past ten years. There is some flirtation with legitimate greatness and not just popcorn greatness, but that's clued into a slightly different movie-going experience. The simple fact that no other studio has been able to catch up, despite having ten years to try to do so, is also a testament to the fact that this blockbuster stuff isn't really that easy.

2017 in Film! Half-Year Personal Viewing Update

Well, we're about just past the half-way mark for 2017, so it's time we take a gander at everything I've ingested so far this year. You may of course check this out in glorious list form right here, but let's do a brief analysis:

Total Movies Watched: 112
First Time Viewings: 58
Repeat Viewings: 54

The near 50/50 split is pretty much in line with 2016 where I finished the year at 53% new movies. I also finished that year with 220 total, so 112 at halfway is a good pace to match that, although I'm actually down from where I was last year, where I had 114 total (62 new). That's really not all that crazily different, which is remarkable in itself.

Now, obviously we need to get down with some Top Ten lists for the year so far. Now, as a reminder, this isn't a 2017 list like most other websites. This is merely a list of the films that I have so far personally watched in 2017, which is far more accurate to my personal viewing habits, although likely fairly uninteresting to anyone else. I've made peace with this.

Here we go, with #1 at the top and #10 at the bottom.

Patton (1970)
The Place Beyond the Pines (2012)
Everybody Wants Some!! (2016)
Train to Busan (2016)
American Honey (2016)
Spotlight (2015)
O.J.: Made in America (2016)
Silence (2016)
(500) Days of Summer (2009)
The Love Witch (2016)

So, obviously, I'm catching up a lot with 2016 films, with 6/10 represented here. I'd say that's fair when judging only first-time viewings. The fun part is seeing which of these films make it until December. Last year only four of my Top Films halfway made the final Year List, and they were all totally out of order as my tastes changed.

I'll add four honorable mentions, three of which are 2016 films: Moana (2016), The Hustler (1961), War on Everyone (2016), and A Bigger Splash (2016) in that order.

Last year I also dished on all the terrible films I had seen, and this year is no different. Back in February I really committed to watching as many bad films as possible, but the worst was definitely Silver Streak (1976), which was shocking to me with huge expectations going in. That movie is fucking terrible until Richard Pryor shows up with about twenty minutes left and makes it awesome, yet ultimately irredeemable.

That's 2017 so far. What have you watched?

Beauty and Hank McCoy

As we approached today I got the feeling more and more that Beauty and the Beast (2017) was going to be a way bigger deal than I cared about. Now, as a Die Hard-loving heterosexual young dude I never gave less than a shit about Beauty and the Beast (1991). This is of course not to deny its outright popularity and enduring love from huge swaths of people. It gained much notoriety from its memorable score, songs, and Best Picture nomination, and I'll admit that when I last saw it, sometime in 2012 or 2013 I was struck by how ground-breaking it actually is. So, let's talk about that a bit as well as preview the critical, cultural, and commercial potential of the newest installment in Disney's money-making machine.

She also still looks like she's 12.

The studio is certainly going for a repeat of its great streak in Live-Action adaptations stretch back to Alice in Wonderland (2010), that most notably peaked with the surprise stellar performance of The Jungle Book (2016) last year. It's an interesting proposition that trades mostly on nostalgic regurgitation rather than innovation, but as long as it's a right to print money, that paradigm isn't leaving us anytime soon. It was only a matter of time before Disney decided to re-invent its more recent 90s library, that's potent in the cultural memory of every millennial out there.

It's a formula that's dangerous in the sense that it creates an allowable mediocrity. It's the same Disney/Marvel movie formula - create the same but good product over and over until the public stops demanding it. Somewhat unbelievably, we aren't nearly close to giving up on this business model, yet. So let's talk about B and the B:

First, we need to get out of the way how fucked up this story is at its core. This has been demonstrated pretty well just about everywhere, The hypocrisy is rampant in this being a classic Disney's children's tale that features a giant monster trapping a French chick in his tower until she kinda wants to fuck it. At the same time, it spins everything on its head and demonstrably shows a different side of the classic man vs. monster tale where the beast is misunderstood and the handsome dude is a huge dick. Also it is really shitty how all the servants are also cursed. What did they do? Just because this Buffalo Man can't get laid they have to be a candle that somehow never melts all the way down and pots and cupboards and shit? It's such a mess. Best Picture nom, tho.

Despite all this sheer insanity, the movie is beloved. When the trailer for the new one dropped it was quickly the most viewed in YouTube history. As more and more came out it became very apparent that this would be a shot for shot remake of the 1991 animated classic. To me, this makes its potential fantastically less interesting, although that doesn't seem to deter anyone else. Anticipation is pretty high. I continually feel like an awful person, since my main thought is that Emma Watson is simply not busty enough - Belle was ridiculous even for Disney Standards. They should have gotten Lisa Ann or Ava Devine - you know, someone with real beauty. That's the bro-iest thing I've ever said in the history of this blog and sublimely awful considering how good of an actor Watson is, but I already don't care about this movie beyond a really really busty live action Belle. Heterosexual. Die Hard.

Culturally, just like any of these repetitious Disney flicks we might get some contentious waves. The Jungle Book lasted for a while and there are fond memories a year later, but that jump from 1967 animation to brilliantly rendered digital critters was a huge leap forward, not to mention that the plot actually barely resembled the campy original. If Beauty and the Beast (2017) doesn't stand out, I imagine it will be well-liked but fade in our memory unless something really ridiculous happens. Maybe it'll be notable for Disney's first gay character, but that's also embarrassingly too late to be really worth celebrating. Also, Disney clearly has hundreds of years of closeted gay characters under its belt. Now, if it was actually just Dude and the Beast, then we'd be getting somewhere.

There's no way LeFou is the only gay character in this movie.

On the critical note, this is probably going to be just fine, but not great. Same as culturally. That's really thing with the contemporary non-Logan (2017) landscape. Shooting for the middle is just fine, and I'm sure this will be a well-constructed, well-reasoned film that doesn't rise to meet any lofty critical expectation. Mediocrity incarnate. Its predecessor was the first animated Best Picture nominee, but there's virtually no way this live action installment cracks the Top 10.

Finally, this is almost assuredly going to make a buttfuck of money. Neither Logan nor Kong: Skull Island (2017) has blown up as much as they really could have, and even if they did, they're not really competing for this audience, anyway. That tween crowd has been starved for a long time for something that's actually quality, and even though this is pandering at its finest, it'll be different enough from Divergent and the Maze Runner and all that YA crap to gain some attention. It'll bump into Power Rangers (2017), which does seem to lean towards the same 90s nostaglic demographic along with a teen lean, but the action ought to contrast with the romance to build some different audiences. Also I don't think anyone actually cares about Power Rangers. Beyond that, it's clear sailing for a while and this ought to dominate.

In other news, The Belko Experiment (2017) also drops this weekend, which I am super-into. Battle Royale (2000) in an office with John C. McGinley is all you had to tell me. This thing may get a cult following but will almost assuredly make no money. That's fine. Hopefully it's super violent and awesome and could actually be good counter-programming to Beauty and the B.

What do you think about this weekend's slate? Or will you just watch porn, instead?

The New ULTRA-Accurate Oscar Predictions

Now that we've let the Oscar Nominations settle for a bit, it's time once again to call out all 24 categories with these, the most scientifically accurate, well-researched, and validated predictions you will ever see on the Internet. To be honest I usually get this about 60% right. Oh how I pine for 2014 when I ran the table. Here's where I've finished ever since starting this madness:

2010: 12/24

2011: 14/24

2012: 16/24

2013: 14/24

2014: 20/24

2015: 13/24

2016: 14/24

Why do I feel like I'll hit 14 again? This is an interesting year - La La Land is the easy pick to run the table, although I don't really think it will. I'm confident that will hurt me. Last year I doubted Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) to my bane. Let's get in this:

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck

This is suddenly a three-way race between Denzel, who won the SAG, Gosling who is riding La La Land sweeper status, and Lil' Affleck, the presumptive forerunner. I think Casey will hold despite having all of the sexual assault accusations that prevented Nate Parker from being in contention. I'm sure that has nothing to do with race. America is fun. Manchester has enough goodwill and enough "not going to win anything else"-ness that I'm confident here.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone

This is a clear one between Huppert, who won the Golden Globes and Stone, who just won the SAG. Huppert was the frontrunner until late. The Academy tends to fawn over young starlet It Girls in this category, and Emma Stone weirdly feels due, even though she's really young. Her relatability is approaching J-Law levels, and this is as much for Birdman (2014) as La La Land. That audition scene will be her highlight, even if it's overracted more than anything.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali

This has always been Ali's to lose, with a pretty high profile 2016. Aaron Taylor-Johnson for some reason snuck away with the Golden Globe, but failed to get a nomination here. The major competition is Jeff Bridges, but there's a feeling that he's already been honored and Hell or High Water, although fantastic, isn't really his best. Ali through and through.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis

This is possibly the most expected Acting Category win, which is fantastic for the oft-seen but underappreciated Viola Davis. It'd be amazing if her and Denzel could both pull off awards for Fences (not to mention a 3/4 Black win), but I don't think he will. There's not much other competition here - Michelle is probably the other contender but this is the one category that's never been in much precursor dispute.

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

Predicted Winner: Manchester by the Sea

This is a tough one - La La Land can't win everything, right? That's my thought, although I'm sure I'll eat my words come Oscar Night. Manchester is the next obvious choice, and Screenplay always gets a bit wonky. If it's a sweep it'll go, but these films are so diametrically opposed I doubt the votes will split. People who hated La La Land will go for Manchester. It's probably a better screenplay, anyway. Damn I'm doubting myself now. I still think this is the category to stumble and get upset, since the love for La La is far from pure.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Moonlight

Moonlight may not end up winning too much else being in the shadow of La La Land, but without that competition here, the path is clear towards victory. Its difficult three-part structure adapted by Barry Jenkins from Barry Jenkins' own unproduced play is also the best of the lot, even if Arrival's twisty revealing irony is although smooth and breathtaking. The Academy rarely goes for sci-fi. Moonlight is a perfect winner here.

Best Cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

Predicted Winner: La La Land

There's a lot of excitement here - after years and years of Deakins vs. Lubezki, with Lubz winning every time, the veteran here is Rodrigo Prieto for Silence, although it's only his second nomination. Everyone else is a rookie, but despite the breathtaking Arrival and emotionally piqued Moonlight, La La Land did pull off sunshine, darkness, sunsets, and long takes that the Academy loves. I'll try to lean into the sweep, which just seems inevitable now.

Best Film Editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

Predicted Winner: La La Land

Getting bored, yet? Arrival nabbed the ACE Eddie Award for Drama, but La La Land's win for comedy in addition to its presumptive sweep gives it a clean edge here. Hacksaw Ridge is actually getting some weird love here as well, and there was enough goodwill for that flick that it could upset here, but La La is the by and large safe pick, even if there wasn't actually that much editing involved. Final scene, perhaps, which is masterful.

Best Visual Effects

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Winner: The Jungle Book

I would actually be deeply saddened if The Jungle Book doesn't come away with this. For all its hype, it totally lived up to the expectation. Doctor Strange is immersive, but also expressly fiction. It's intriguing to see the animated Kubo here, which could bode well for its Animated Feature chances. There's not really a question, though, that The Jungle Book dominated, and the Academy tends to disfavor superhero films anyway.

Best Production Design

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

Predicted Winner: Arrival

I'm going out on a weird limb here - Production Design hasn't lined up with Best Picture in a while, usually going to reward something a bit off-kilter. It's a place that's a bit friendlier to bigger, crazier films, although in the past five years, three have gone to more domestic pictures like Lincoln (2012), The Great Gatsby (2013), and The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014). Hail, Caesar! would be the obvious pick in this case, but this is also a great opportunity to acknowledge Arrival, which despite popular opinion, will likely otherwise go home empty-handed.

Best Costume Design

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Predicted Winner: Jackie

I haven't gotten this category right in four years. Here's another La La Land anti-sweep prediction though, since the Academy always favors period over modern, and there's nothing really special about La La's outfits, except for maybe Gosling's 80s jackets (if they don't have scorpions on them I'm not interested), and the sweet primary colors in "Someone in the Crowd." Jackie has love but nothing really in the front - this is the kind of bold prediction that earns me that 61% accuracy.

Best Makeup and Hairstying

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

Predicted Winner: Star Trek Beyond

My rationale is that everyone hates Suicide Squad (can you imagine the "Academy Award-winning" moniker on the DVD covers? Is that anachronism?), and no one's heard of A Man Called Ove. Star Trek Beyond didn't really get enough credit for being one of the Summer's best blockbusters (the muddled villain was actually enough to bring it down a few notches), but this is a nice consolation.

Best Original Score

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

Predicted Winner: La La Land

Micah Levi for Jackie has gotten a lot of love this season, and Thomas Newman is looking at his 14th nomination for Passengers, but the former will surely win at some point and the latter film no one really likes (nor has a memorable score). It's been a while since a musical actually won this, dating back to Pocahontas (1995), the last live action musical being Purple Rain (1984). Does Purple Rain count as a musical? La La Land is the presumptive winner until proven otherwise.

Best Original Song

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land

“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls

“City of Stars,” La La Land

“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story

“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Predicted Winner: "City of Stars"

Yes, Lin Manuel-Miranda could become the youngest EGOT with a win here, but "How Far I'll Go" is no "Let it Go." Timberlake could also become an Oscar winner, and although "Can't Stop the Feeling" was way more popular than Trolls, let's get real. "City of Stars" has that magic touch you need in this category - not a cash grab song but the heart of the whole movie. No brainer.

Best Sound Editing

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

The last time this award went to a non-action oriented film was Hugo (2011), and you could make a solid argument that it's not even non-action oriented. Other than that, this virtually always goes to some kind of war film or action blockbuster. The next closest we get is The Ghost and the Darkness (1996), which again, definitely straddles some lines. La La Land is obviously the frontrunner again, but it'd be really breaking with tradition to win. Hacksaw Ridge seems to fit in here nicely.

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Predicted Winner: La La Land

Chazelle's last movie, Whiplash (2014) won here two years ago, and La La Land fits in well with Les Misérables (2012), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), Dreamgirls (2006), Ray (2004), and Chicago (2002). There's almost no doubt here.

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

Predicted Winner: Zootopia

There's actually some life in Kubo, but Disney has won two out of the past three years, and Zootopia is just as good if not better than Big Hero 6 (2014) and probably on par with Frozen (2013) in quality, if not quite the cultural phenomenon. There's not really a question, although this category has seen its share of upsets lately, though mostly in down years for the medium.

Best Documentary

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America

13th

Predicted Winner: O.J.: Made in America

Three of these docs ostensibly deal with race in America, and all three had a lot of late-year love, but none as much as O.J. At 467 minutes it's the longest feature ever nominated, although I don't even know how this TV miniseries got in contention. It did have a limited theatrical run over a few days last May, which is bonkers, but none of that should detract from how good it is, along with the legitimacy a win would give the excellent ESPN 30 for 30 brand. OJ was big in 2016 for some reason, maybe with our reality TV star President we had to look back at the original reality TV fiasco - a story so unbelievable we had to watch again and think, "We could have never been that insane, right?"

Best Foreign Language Film

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

Predicted Winner: Toni Erdmann

There's not too much of a debate on this. Erdmann got a lot of mainstream love here in the states and that should be enough to put it over the edge. Then again, I hear that A Man Called Ove has great makeup and hairstyling!

Best Documentary Short Subject

"Extremis"

"4.1 Miles"

"Joe's Violin"

"Watani: My Homeland"

"The White Helmets"

Predicted Winner: "Extremis"

I've actually heard of Extremis, so I'm going with that one. That's not just from Iron Man. I'd be curious if Watani or White Helmets gets a surge from their sudden relevancy with the anti-refugee ban, but I would also garner that no one has heard of these films or knows what they are actually about.

Best Animated Short Subject

"Blind Vaysha"

"Borrowed Time"

"Pear Cider and Cigarettes"

"Pearl"

"Piper"

Predicted Winner: "Borrowed Time"

Pixar's Piper is the frontrunner, but Disney and Pixar shorts actually rarely win this, even when they're spectacular. It much more often goes to something weird, foreign, or obscure. Borrowed Time splits the difference well - a more adult film from some former Pixar people that gained some notoriety when it dropped. I actually didn't think it was all that great, and I can see a cool premise like Blind Vaysha pulling it off, but for now let's go with that.

Best Live Action Short

"Ennemis Entreniers"

"La Femme et le TGV"

"Silent Nights"

"Sing"

"Timecode"

Predicted Winner: "Timecode"

"Silent Nights" and "Sing" come from a production studio with a solid amount of Oscar history, and "Ennemis Entreniers" is the frontrunner right now, but "Timecode" is defintiely the coolest and also gaining the most traction. This is also a fucking crapshoot.

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Chazelle

See?! I saved the best categories for last so you get to scroll down and here my thoughts on "Borrowed Time." Jenkins is solid runner-up and Villeneuve ought to get this at some point (although similarly intense folk like Kubrick, Tarantino, and P.T. Anderson have never won this). Chazelle is ridiculously young, but in a year without much other fearsome competition (This is Jenkins' second feature, Lonergan's third), it's in the bag.

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Predicted Winner: La La Land

While it may seem like a foregone conclusion, keep in mind that Moonlight is still pretty popular, actors seem to love Fences, and Hidden Figures just won the SAG for best ensemble. Let's get real, though. No film panders to Hollywood like La La Land, and you simply don't get 14 nominations without winning Best Picture. This is set to run the train.

What do you think? Will my predictions hold up? Will La La Land sweep in all categories I doubted it? Will "Piper" emerge triumphant? Stay tuned for my annual LIVE BLOG February 26th, 2017 at 8:00 pm EST for my championship winning predictions to come true!