96 Oscars, 96 minutes!

Well it's Oscar season and we've got a long way to go! A whole 24 hours. We have a typically fantastic track record so THIS YEAR we haven't really read any predictions at all because we get it all wrong anyway. I know this is the year we get everything right. Here we go!

Best Picture

Anora (Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers)

The Brutalist (Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers)
A Complete Unknown (Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers)
Conclave (Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers)
Dune: Part Two (Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers)
Emilia Pérez (Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers)
I’m Still Here (Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers)
Nickel Boys (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, Producers)
Wicked (Marc Platt, Producer)

Prediction: Anora

Anora had the early buzz and I like the DGA and PGA combo, even if the SAG love for Conclave is still notable. I just haven't gotten the Conclavei vibes, like what is that movie even about? I don't actually know what Anora is about, either but I am a big Sean Baker fan. I can't actually totally conceive such an outsider winning but the Oscars have been real weird lately.

Leading Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Prediction: Brody

This seems like his to lose, even though Fiennes had early buzz. I don't know what The Brutalist is about or what Brody is like in it, but he's just won everything he needs to.

Leading Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Prediction: Moore

This is a great win for Moore and I don't see anyone as really having a chance. This is a great nod towards The Substance, which is a bonkers movie and I'd love to see the win here.

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Prediction: Culkin

Sounds good to me. This seems to be in the bag, which must feel nice.

Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Prediction: Saldana

Zoe Saldana is secretly one of the highest grossing movie stars of all time and an Oscar on her shelf would really cap it all off. I don't know what Emilia Pérez is about, either but I know that people liked it and now they don't because one of the stars said something stupid on Twitter and got cancelled. What a stupid world we live in.

Director

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Prediction: Baker

Or maybe Corbet? I don't know. Probably Baker, that feels right.

Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown (Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks)

Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)

Prediction: Conclave

I think this will go that way as a compensation for missing out on the big award.

Original Screenplay

Anora (Written by Sean Baker)

The Brutalist (Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Written by Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Written by Coralie Fargeat)

Prediction: A Real Pain

This always goes to movies like that.

Animated Feature

Flow (Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman)

Inside Out 2 (Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen)
Memoir of a Snail (Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek)
The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann)

Prediction: Flow

Man I hope it's Flow! So good!

International Feature

I’m Still Here (Brazil)

The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

Prediction: Emilia Perez

Maybe Flow! Probably Perez, even though everyone hates it, those foreign French bastards are probably still into it. I don't think anyone else has any momentum and folks will at least vote for the one they know.

Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries (Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin)

No Other Land (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Porcelain War (Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, Paula DuPre’ Pesman)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety)
Sugarcane (Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn)

Prediction: No Other Land

I think that's a thing?

Cinematography

The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)

Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

Prediction: Dune: Part Two

Or the Brutalist. I don't know, we'll see but Dune was the bigger deal for sure.

Costume Design

A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)

Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)

Prediction: Wicked

People seemed to like this one.

Production Design

The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)

Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

Prediction: Dune

I think they will go to Dune, or Wicked. Dune seems like a big hook for the technical awards, it's just that kind of film that had appeal to the big dumb nerds who vote on this stuff.

Film Editing

Anora (Sean Baker)

The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)

Prediction: Anora

All these are in the running. I don't know, I have such a gap this year. Go with the best picture? Or if it loses, this is a nice way to make it up?

Makeup and Hairstyling

A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado)

Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)

Prediction: Substance

The Substance is definitely better but I think Wicked is flashier and more notable. Folks seem to be pulling for the Substance and I am too.

Original Score

The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)

Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

Prediction: Brutalist

I think Wicked was nominated too much and is too popular in a year full of largely extremely unpopular movies and it would win a bunch. Okay, I broke down and checked out what experts predict and they think it's Brutalist. Fine, but I will choke down when dumbass Wicked wins.

Original Song

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)

Winner: "El Mal"

This is apparently the favorite? I'd like to see Brandi Carlile.

Sound

A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco)

Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts)

Prediction: Dune

I might just be rolling safe and picking Dune for all these technical stuff, it's going to win at least one and probably all of them.

Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan)

Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)

Prediction: Dune

It really should be Kingdom, which may continue this franchise's streak of never winning acknowledgment of its monumental achievements once again.

Animated Short Film

Beautiful Men (Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande)

In the Shadow of the Cypress (Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi)
Magic Candies (Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio)
Wander to Wonder (Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper)
Yuck! (Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet)

Prediction: Wander to Wonder

One in five shot! Funnest title wins!

Documentary Short Film

Death by Numbers (Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard)
I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)
Incident (Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven)
Instruments of a Beating Heart (Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington)

Prediction: Orchestra

Death! By numbers... Folks seem to want Orchestra, though.

Live Action Short Film

A Lien (Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz)

Anuja (Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai)
I’m Not a Robot (Victoria Warmerdam and Trent)
The Last Ranger (Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek)

Prediction: The Last Ranger

Sounds kind of like the Lone Ranger! That's fun.

What do you think will win? I think we got it this year.

2024 Has Plenty of Sharks: Top Ten Films!

 Hey Folks, it's that time of year we wait for all year - the end of the year! Everyone who's anyone is submitting their Top Ten lists for the year, and just because we have to be different, we're just going to do this differently.

I feel more than ever that I really just have not been able to watch every movie I wanted to watch this year. A lot of that is living in a relatively smaller town in the middle of the Great Plains, but it's also me having a wee baby at home and a full-time job which means I both can't get out that much and even when I'm chilling around I just have other things to do. Weirdly I am also going to cite the cessation of Netflix DVD as a big blow to me watching random movies I'm really into.

There is also the fact that every year I have also tended to reassess the previous year, mostly because it takes me a full year to catch everything that came out, and then I reassess again after ten years. Most people would call all this crazy. I don't know what this list looks like going forward, but I may just decide to do this list a year late.

Or it might be kind of like this year, I'll cite the movies I've seen, I'll mention the ones I think could break in, and then rank everything when it's all in. I'm not sure what the future will look like, if for some reason you still check this site out, you'll know that we aren't actually really beholden to anything, and NMW is endlessly flexible.

So, taking this one year at a time, here are seven movies that I saw this year that I felt were deserving of mention here:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

I have seen just about all these other films crop up somewhere, but I feel like no one is giving Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes the love it deserves. All the love went to Dawn (2014), my previous favorite was War (2017), but I actually think this one might be the best. Set far in the future, this might have one of the better calls to action and organic inciting incident of any major blockbuster. It also looks absolutely great, but that should be a given by now. I don't think the main chimp is nearly as compelling as Caesar, and the third act kind of drags, but there is really sincere worldbuilding here, a really nasty villain, and a great ending that pays off some sly set-ups. It's just really great, if not by the book writing, but that's still hard to do.

Dune II

Aka TWONE. Pronounced Tooon. I guess that's why they didn't put that on a poster. Dune (2021) was fine, I was never all that into it, I think it moved a bit too fast with too many characters and not enough rationale behind what was happening, but most of that works in the sequel, which is laser focused on this false messiah thing, which becomes too real for everyone involved. The cast is impeccable and Austin Butler probably should have gotten Villain of the Year over Jason Bateman. Dagnabbit, forgot about that. I love how much each society we see connects through lighting, culture, and action. The scale here is ridiculous and it earns its epic feel and the characters gel together more than in the first one.

The Bikeriders

Let's go Austin Butler again. This also has gotten hardly any love, especially for Tom Hardy, who balances tough and psychotic so well here. This movie might truly have no protagonist. It's a multi-year subaltern epic akin to Goodfellas (1990) but it feels slept on. It's a movement that gets out of control and it's tough to see because there's not really a solution, it's out of everyone's hands. There's a lot of pain here, too and genuine tough guys who exude that kind of charm, ignorance, and mistakes that make the movie feel really real. I also give credit to Jodie Comer who has been in stuff, but this might be her biggest role. Like I said, I think she might even be the protagonist here? But she holds her own across from Tom Hardy spectacularly.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

I don't know why we don't praise Chris Hemsworth more. It might just be because he mostly chooses Thor movies and random stuff on Netflix (Extraction? Retraction? Whatever that was?). But with this, Bad Times at the El Royale (2018) and Spiderhead (2022) we are slowly getting to see how good he is at playing an unhinged maniac. He might actually be a character actor stuck in a leading man's body and that's a good thing. Furiosa tends to take a backseat in her own movie, and I was surprised that Anya Taylor-Joy really only shows up in the last hour or so. Having said that, this is assuredly told through her lens.

This movie was really unexpected, in that it really wasn't anything like Mad Max: Fury Road (2015). I think it probably needed more hype and perhaps a different title that didn't sound exactly like that movie. But when it calls itself a saga it is truly that - a long, like twenty year saga that demonstrates the rise, decline, and fall of multiple marauding wasteland gangs in ways that don't really care about lining up with Fury Road, despite being a prequel. And I don't mean they don't line up, more like they don't really seem to care about setting up little things that don't matter like a lot of prequels do. Everything here is done as well as Fury Road, and it only loses its glisten a big because that's a big chunk of novelty already spent.

Blink Twice

This was a damn hypnosis of a movie. Many people have lauded director Zoe Kravitz and it's not just the subject matter or shot selection, I cited the moment it becomes an entirely different movie in my best scenes, but it's a real delicate hand that does it. I knew the basic premise (SPOILER here I guess, just skip to the next review), but not the details and I was actually sitting there wondering why these guys were so nice and charming. And strangely sex free...I mean, clearly something was wrong on this island, and then when it's all revealed, it's horrifying but also lines up well from a writing stand point. And the direction matches everything, the shots get wider, the montages fade away, even the hair and make-up changes. As the characters stop living in the dreamlike fantasy, so do we and the magic of film as a visual medium fuels all that. Channing Tatum is also a great villain of the year. And no, I don't like the ending, either. I just don't think that's what her character needed to really grow. It was kind of a want and not a need, you know?

Rebel Ridge

I really debated these last two. Ultimately I went with the one that has stuck with me more, but that doesn't mean this hasn't. Rebel Ridge is just an avalanche of superior filmmaking, it stretches and draws tension like Picasso and Aaron Pierre is set-up to be THE dude for the next decade after this. It's a true star-making performance. I'm not sure how Don Johnson ended his career playing racist authority figures, but here we are. The one thing that doesn't line up to me is SPOILER Roy's turn as the informant, I just don't think that motivation was set-up but whatever. This film also shows how well you can do action on a budget - just write it and it's fine, you don't need a lot of CGI non-sense, just some smoke and a USMC Karate expert. The message here is obviously, like police are bad and the justice system is corrupt BIG SHOCKER but it does present a little more nuance than that, and most importantly, it uses that as a realistic vehicle to build stakes and tension to push its story forward.

Challengers

This movie was absolutely wild. I started kind of half-watching it because it starts a bit boring but then the saga of these three Tennis players gets so damn wild and sexy it becomes a must watch. I literally think that that all three wanted to fuck each other and as it chronicles how they were friends and split up, slowly revealing the past through time jumps everything just adds up. It's the film with the richest characters I've seen this year. Zendaya is so driven and competent and gets the most taken away from her, so she reacts the strongest in her exertion of control. The blonde guy struggles to articulate his own desires and plays everything too safe despite being the only player with actual success. And the brunette guy is just a bad boy who talks too much. He's like Vegeta.

It's got one of the most unreal endings of all these movies, too. Like, SPOILER, he banged the other guy's wife but the other guy kind of likes it and Zendaya likes it too. Like, do they end up a throuple? Luca Guadagnino is clearly a mad but horny genius and I love how much natural sex is in this movie.

Others: The Glen Powell double feature of Twisters and Hit Man came close but I don't think they could seriously be considered for this list.

Movies I might consider but haven't seen yet:

Anora - I have loved all of Sean Baker's previous work and this might be his film with the most mainstream appeal. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not, but I'd like to see it.

Megalopolis - Again, I haven't seen it, but I want to. I enjoy big swings and curious to really figure out what it's saying and cut through what a lot of people who probably don't understand how insane Coppola is are saying about it

Saturday Night - I don't think this would get in, but I'm a big SNL fan and intrigued by this. I kind of feel like it had hype but kind of landed with a thud? Like I said, I'm just curious, failure or success I like movies that try this kind of stuff.

Joker 2 - This is on Max and I hope to see it before the year is over. Dude, I know, but I really disliked Joker (2019) and so from everything I hear, I might be the target audience...I mean, how does this even get made, but I don't care about that, I'm into what it could be.

Venom 3 - shut up

Nosferatu - Robert Eggers, 'nuff said. I should have seen it Christmas Day, fuck my family.

Juror #2 - Also on Max, Clint Eastwood's purported last movie and I'd love to see it. I don't actually know much about it

The Brutalist - There is a whole lot of crap out there, I feel more than any other year, so many weird random indie films that are popping up on people's lists. I honestly feel a little outmatched, like, how have you even heard of these things? Also they seem uninteresting. The Brutalist seems cool, though, and I've seen it pop up quite a bit. I don't even know how I'll keep track of whenever this comes on streaming somewhere, which is my only option these days.

So, that's it! Can you wait until December 2026 for our review next year? Or maybe we'll just post it whenever we feel confident we've seen enough. Like I said, we keep things loose around here.

Happy 2024 everyone!

2022 Oscar Results! And Nothing Crazy Happened!

I'm lying, something really crazy did happen. Power of the Dog (2021) only had one win, for best director! This is surely controversial. Sam Elliot has a lot of sway in Hollywood, I guess. Such a shame that otherwise the ceremony was just trite and boring.

Yeah, okay, we know what happened. Everyone has a take and it's all pretty obvious. To me, I'm glad he got his Oscar because Will's not going to work again. Or he will because Hollywood is crazy, and seems to be mostly on his side for some reason. But this is the kind of thing you remember for a long time, which is bonkers because Will Smith has sooo many things that are worth remembering. So, let's talk much more about this throughout this whole article, but let's get into our all-time stats:

2021: 12/23

2020: 13/24 

2019: 13/24 

2018: 16/24 

2017: 13/24 

2016: 14/24 

2015: 13/24 

2014: 20/24 

2013: 14/24 

2012: 16/24 

2011: 14/24 

2010: 12/24

I'm really so bad at this. Anyway, let's do it.

Best Picture:

I'm realizing I forgot to make a prediction for this. It was DOG in my head. CODA ended up winning. CODA was surging a bit towards the end, but honestly I didn't think it would upset Power of the Dog, which I guess everyone actually just Sam Ellioted, so whatever.

0/1

Best Director:

Prediction: Campion

I got this one!

1/2

Actor:

I said Garfield, Smith was the front-runner but I just didn't trust it. I fumbled perhaps the most obvious category, but if Garfield had one I would have looked like a genius. Now I look like...a dumbass. I just feel like Tom Cruise is going to make a movie where he stars as John McEnroe's dad to get his Oscar, finally. And Will's presence throughout the ceremony and speech were totally normal.

1/3

Actress:

Kirsten Stewart did not win this. I'm happy for Chastain, I didn't pay much attention to her, but looking back, this does feel like an acknowledgment of an impressive body of work, mostly Dark Phoenix (2019). I don't know. The Academy always awards folks like this unless it doesn't.

1/4

 Supporting Actor:

At the time Smit-McPhee, of Dark Phoenix fame seemed like the unstoppable lock. In the past few weeks this turned into all-Kotsur. Clearly, CODA struck the chord I thought Dog would. Fuck this, I'm just making my predictions the week of next year.

1/5

Supporting Actress:

No real question, DeBose got this, well deserved and very exciting.

2/6

Adapted Screenplay:

Just read my words. "This could go to CODA but I think Campion goes all in." Half of that was true. The Academy just clearly ended up loving this movie. Also Will Smith slapped Chris Rock.

2/7

Original Screenplay:

Even leading up to this I thought this would go to Pizza. What's a boy got to do? I have no real interest in Belfast (2021) if Jamie Dornan doesn't sing about how his heart is torn between an Albino and midwesterner played by the same actress while running through the sand and climbing a palm tree like a cat who's decided to climb up a palm tree.

2/8

Animated Film:

I still haven't seen Encanto (2021) but I want to! Does that count? I actually read the wind on this one.

3/9

Animated Short Film:

Always a crap shoot, but I did say Wiper would be in the top three. I mean, whatever. As long as it kept Will Smith's wife's name out of its fucking mouth.

3/10

Costume:

I didn't really buy that this should be Cruella (2021) but all the pundits were unanimous, and imagine that, I listen to people and get a category right.

4/11

Short Film:

Suck it. Got this one. "Long Goodbye"

5/12

Score:

DUNE (2021). Okay, here come all the technical awards that DUNE won, which will generally save me, except for one which I doubted. Well-earned, it was a great score.

6/13

Sound:

I still want two categories. But what I want more is more obvious DUNE wins to salvage my terrible night. Almost as terrible as Chris Rock's left cheek.

7/14

Cinematography:

I deviated from the DUNE and got punished. I was clearly in on Doggy and got bit for it. That bite like the Philadelphia cream cheese running off Chris Rock's face. Oh boy.

7/15

Documentary:

Listen, I didn't actually watch the ceremony. What the hell was ?uestlove's acceptance speech like. Just stunned audience at this point? It's just mind-blowing. What does Ricky Gervais thnk?

8/16

Doc Short Subject:

This went to "Queen of Basketball" which fits in with Kobe Bryant's win a while back instead of Benazir, which sounds probably sad. I mean, alopecia isn't even fatal.

8/17

Editing:

Thanks, DUNE.

9/18

French Film:

This was a pretty clear lock as well. It kind of goes without saying, although Worst Person in the World (2021) could have swept in. I need to watch Drive My Car (2021) on HBOMax and you should, too!

10/19

Makeup and Hairstyling:

WHATEVER. I know. I know. I just couldn't fall in line and go with Tammy Faye. This was just some black hole for me, I knew nothing about it. I blame Hillbilly Elegy (2020) which got me off the "make-up makes the movie a lock" vote. You know who doesn't need hairstyling?

10/20

Original Song:

Stan Sitwell. I don't want to talk about losing this category, but I'm glad Billie Eilish is an Oscar Winner.

10/21

Production Design:

Thanks, DUNE

11/22

Visual Effects:

You complete me, DUNE

12/23

Well, I feel like a real Peacock. Same score as last year. Meh, looking back, I probably should have gotten four more right, the obvious locks for Actor, Supporting Actor, Makeup, and Song. I misread the lack of power for Power of the Dog and it bit me, losing a lot to CODA.

Also, we all know that Will Smith is insane, right? Like, just watch After Earth (2013). Or better yet, Winter's Tale (2014). That's right. We remember you in Winter's Tale. First of all, Chris Rock's joke was certainly tasteless. They're allowed to both be wrong. But like, no one would remember that joke tomorrow. Ya'll remembering this on stage assault during one of the most watched live programs we have left. This just feels like the culmination of cancel culture - we need to find the zone between genuinely caring about each other and creating jokes that don't personally offend, but also being able to laugh at ourselves and not freak out over things that we could probably just move on from and aren't a big deal in the long run.

I don't know. I at least like that song by The Anxiety.

Norwegian Morning Wood's Official 2022 Academy Award Predictions

Are you ready for the most solid predictions of all time? To be honest, like most folks I have really lost all interest in the Academy Awards. I mean, if they're not honouring PIG (2021) what is even the point. But as long as this is ostensibly a film website we will cover and care about film sort of! Let's start our predictions!

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Best Directing

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Prediction: Campion

Licorice Pizza doesn't really have traction, foreign directors can be successful, but only if the film is really in the zeitgeist, Spielberg is a little overhonored and West Side Story underperformed. Branagh is a solid choice, but the momentum is really behind Campion, who is an apparently beloved and underrated director, who also directed the shit out of Dog.

Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick … Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Prediction: Garfield

Listen, everyone is thinking Will Smith. The Academy has just dicked over handing out the honorary prize lately. They snubbed Keaton, they snubbed Dafoe. They gave it to Gary Oldman over Chalamet, which is analogous here, but Garfield is also just riding really high lately while Will Smith is kind of over. I'm just feeling Garfield, this is probably an easy category that I have messed up but I don't care anymore.

Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Prediction: Stewart

I dunno, this is my troll vote. She's the only interesting option here. I like Cruz, but she has a statue already and hasn't gotten a ton of buzz. This is truly up in the air and Stewart was the last one in, but now that she's in, I think she gets votes. And Spencer just got on Hulu! I think folks will watch it easy and vote it up. Or not, who cares.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Prediction: Kodi

This is maybe a done deal? I'm not super impressed by anyone else. I'm not totally impressed by Nightcrawler here either, but it'd be shocking if Dog didn't come up with any acting wins.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Prediction: DeBose

I really like Buckley and Dunst, and I hope that they both return here. Pulling for Dunst in particular, but this seems to be DeBose's category to lose. With my insane picks elsewhere, hopefully this is safer.

Writing, Adapted Screenplay

CODA, Sian Heder

Drive My Car, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe

Dune, Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve

The Lost Daughter, Maggie Gyllenhaal

The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion

Prediction: Campion

This could go CODA. I think Campion pulls it all in on the big night. It's really the most notable screenplay of the lot and the obvious answer.

Writing, Original Screenplay

Belfast, Kenneth Branagh

Don't Look Up, Adam McKay and David Sirota

Licorice Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson

King Richard, Zach Baylin

The Worst Person in the World, Joachim Trier

Prediction: PTA

Somehow PTA doesn't have an Oscar. I think that's corrected this year and this is probably gotten the most love without a clear path to any other award. The Academy just loves offbeat movies like this, and Licorice Pizza fits in that zone well. Belfast could sneak up, but this just seems like Pizza.

Animated Feature Film

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Prediction: Encanto

At one point this seemed close but Encanto has emerged as the preeminent animated film of the year. Luca and Raya were fun but neither really took off. Mitchells got a lot of hype, but never hit the big release and got mainstream buzz like Encanto. Recently also helps, it just seems like their year.

Animated Short Film

"Affairs of the Art"

"Bestia"

"Boxballet"

"Robin Robin"

"The Windshield Wiper"

Prediction: "Robin Robin"

Ugh this crap. Apparently this studio has a strong Oscar history, it was on Netflix, and is in the zone of entertainment we all like. I have a soft spot for "Affairs" and "Wiper", but let's go safe here.

Costume Design

Cruella, Jenny Beavan

Cyrano, Massimo Cantini Parrini

Dune, Jacqueline West

Nightmare Alley, Luis Sequeira

West Side Story, Paul Tazewell

Prediction: Cruella

I have a stealth favourite in Dune, if this follows Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) and Black Panther (2018), but movies explicitly about fashion like Phantom Thread (2017) succeed here, too. Beavan has gotten a lot of buzz (she won for Fury Road). This used to be comfortably period, the only real contender there would be Cyrano, but that's really not that big of a film here. Cruella has the pedigree, the history, and the effort to nail this.

Live Action Short Film

"Ala Kachuu - Take and Run"

"The Dress"

The Long Goodbye"

"On My Mind"

"Please Hold"

Prediction: "The Long Goodbye"

"The Long Goodbye" got in my head and it might to the same for voters. Riz Ahmed is in it, which is a nice boost of recognition. You and I both know no one has any idea who is going to win this.

Music, Original Score

Don't Look Up, Nicholas Britell

Dune, Hans Zimmer

Encanto, Germaine Franco

Parallel Mothers, Alberto Iglesias

The Power of the Dog, Jonny Greenwood

Prediction: DUNE

I just remember the Sardukar chant more than anything in Power of the Dog. DUNE ought to win a lot of technical stuff, and while Score isn't really in that zone, it's certainly the most notable here.

Sound

Belfast

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Prediction: DUNE

See above. This has the best sound. It's a bummer we don't get split categories anymore. Just less to get wrong, baby!

Cinematography

Dune, Greig Fraser

Nightmare Alley, Dan Lausten

The Power of the Dog, Ari Wegner

The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bruno Delbonnel

West Side Story, Janusz Kaminski

Prediction: DOG

For all the hype, Pow of the D might not walk away with too much. It's reliably gorgeous and got enough exposure on the hype train to make it work. DUNE might get it, it's favored, but I'm not convinced it sweeps every technical as it's expected to.

Documentary Feature

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Summer of Soul

Writing With Fire

Prediction: Summer of Soul

This is a big one between this and Flee, but folks like Questlove, it was a big movie when it came out, and is a genuinely interesting, feel good but not that good subject.

Documentary Short Subject

"Audible"

"Lead Me Home"

"The Queen of Basketball"

"Three Songs for Benazir"

"When We Were Bullies"

Prediction: Benazir

That sounds like something important, right? Let's go with that.

Film Editing

Don't Look Up, Hank Corwin

Dune, Joe Walker

King Richard, Pamela Martin

The Power of the Dog, Peter Sciberras

Tick, Tick... Boom!, Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

Prediciton: DUNE

So, music biopics have won with Bohemian Rhapsody (2018). Competitive sports movies have won with Ford v. Ferrari. Westerns haven't ever really been a thing and neither have comedies. Ugh, it does feel like Dune, which again follows the Fury Road model of crushing technical awards. I don't think it's a technical achievement on Fury Road's level, but it's probably good enough to win here.

International Feature Film

Drive My Car, Japan

Flee, Denmark

The Hand of God, Italy

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Bhutan

The Worst Person in the World, Norway

Prediction: Drive My Car

It's that thing where isn't the foreign film that gets the BP nod inherently the best International Film? Hopefully this comes deep in the night when my predictions have long since gone to shit.

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Dune

Prediction: Cruella

Is this Coming 2 America's year?! I'm tempted to go with House of Gucci, but as Hillbilly Elegy (2020) proved last year, the most make-up isn't always the best make-up, which is a mistake I made. Still, this always goes to the move that's all about it's make-up. Everyone is prediction Tammy Faye. I guess it is all about her eyes, but it's certainly a low profile movie to win an award that usually goes to the highest profile film. Ew, I hate to say I think this might go to Cruella.

Music, Original Song

"Be Alive" -- Beyoncé Knowles-Carter and Darius Scott, King Richard

"Dos Oruguitas" -- Lin-Manuel Miranda, Encanto

"Down to Joy" -- Van Morrison, Belfast

"No Time to Die" -- Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell, No Time to Die

"Somehow You Do" -- Diane Warren, Four Good Days

Prediction: "Dos Oruguitas"

Everyone thinks this will go to Bond. Meh, I didn't think that song was that great. Encanto feels more of the moment. I am way too bold this year, folks.

Production Design

Dune, Zsuzsanna Sipos and Patrice Vermette

Nightmare Alley, Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau

The Power of the Dog, Grant Major and Amber Richards

The Tragedy of Macbeth, Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh

West Side Story, Rena DeAngelo and Adam Stockhausen

Prediction: DUNE

Like, how is it not DUNE

Visual Effects

Dune

Free Guy

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

No Time to Die

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Prediction: DUNE

It's such an easy slam dunk to actually honor a film that's good here. Also the sandworm and city effects in DUNE beat all these other movies.

Okay, so that's it! Locked in! Stay tuned for when we find out how I did, sometime in March with possibly a live-blog!