Well it's Oscar season and we've got a long way to go! A whole 24 hours. We have a typically fantastic track record so THIS YEAR we haven't really read any predictions at all because we get it all wrong anyway. I know this is the year we get everything right. Here we go!
Best Picture
Anora (Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers)
The Brutalist (Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers)
A Complete Unknown (Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers)
Conclave (Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers)
Dune: Part Two (Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers)
Emilia Pérez (Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers)
I’m Still Here (Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers)
Nickel Boys (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, Producers)
Wicked (Marc Platt, Producer)
Prediction: Anora
Anora had the early buzz and I like the DGA and PGA combo, even if the SAG love for Conclave is still notable. I just haven't gotten the Conclavei vibes, like what is that movie even about? I don't actually know what Anora is about, either but I am a big Sean Baker fan. I can't actually totally conceive such an outsider winning but the Oscars have been real weird lately.
Leading Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Prediction: Brody
This seems like his to lose, even though Fiennes had early buzz. I don't know what The Brutalist is about or what Brody is like in it, but he's just won everything he needs to.
Leading Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Prediction: Moore
This is a great win for Moore and I don't see anyone as really having a chance. This is a great nod towards The Substance, which is a bonkers movie and I'd love to see the win here.
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Prediction: Culkin
Sounds good to me. This seems to be in the bag, which must feel nice.
Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Prediction: Saldana
Zoe Saldana is secretly one of the highest grossing movie stars of all time and an Oscar on her shelf would really cap it all off. I don't know what Emilia Pérez is about, either but I know that people liked it and now they don't because one of the stars said something stupid on Twitter and got cancelled. What a stupid world we live in.
Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Prediction: Baker
Or maybe Corbet? I don't know. Probably Baker, that feels right.
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown (Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)
Prediction: Conclave
I think this will go that way as a compensation for missing out on the big award.
Original Screenplay
Anora (Written by Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Written by Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Written by Coralie Fargeat)
Prediction: A Real Pain
This always goes to movies like that.
Animated Feature
Flow (Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman)
Inside Out 2 (Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen)
Memoir of a Snail (Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek)
The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann)
Prediction: Flow
Man I hope it's Flow! So good!
International Feature
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)
Prediction: Emilia Perez
Maybe Flow! Probably Perez, even though everyone hates it, those foreign French bastards are probably still into it. I don't think anyone else has any momentum and folks will at least vote for the one they know.
Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries (Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin)
No Other Land (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Porcelain War (Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, Paula DuPre’ Pesman)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety)
Sugarcane (Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn)
Prediction: No Other Land
I think that's a thing?
Cinematography
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)
Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Or the Brutalist. I don't know, we'll see but Dune was the bigger deal for sure.
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)
Prediction: Wicked
People seemed to like this one.
Production Design
The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)
Prediction: Dune
I think they will go to Dune, or Wicked. Dune seems like a big hook for the technical awards, it's just that kind of film that had appeal to the big dumb nerds who vote on this stuff.
Film Editing
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)
Prediction: Anora
All these are in the running. I don't know, I have such a gap this year. Go with the best picture? Or if it loses, this is a nice way to make it up?
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)
Prediction: Substance
The Substance is definitely better but I think Wicked is flashier and more notable. Folks seem to be pulling for the Substance and I am too.
Original Score
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)
Prediction: Brutalist
I think Wicked was nominated too much and is too popular in a year full of largely extremely unpopular movies and it would win a bunch. Okay, I broke down and checked out what experts predict and they think it's Brutalist. Fine, but I will choke down when dumbass Wicked wins.
Original Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)
Winner: "El Mal"
This is apparently the favorite? I'd like to see Brandi Carlile.
Sound
A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts)
Prediction: Dune
I might just be rolling safe and picking Dune for all these technical stuff, it's going to win at least one and probably all of them.
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)
Prediction: Dune
It really should be Kingdom, which may continue this franchise's streak of never winning acknowledgment of its monumental achievements once again.
Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men (Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande)
In the Shadow of the Cypress (Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi)
Magic Candies (Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio)
Wander to Wonder (Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper)
Yuck! (Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet)
Prediction: Wander to Wonder
One in five shot! Funnest title wins!
Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers (Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard)
I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)
Incident (Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven)
Instruments of a Beating Heart (Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington)
Prediction: Orchestra
Death! By numbers... Folks seem to want Orchestra, though.
Live Action Short Film
A Lien (Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz)
Anuja (Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai)
I’m Not a Robot (Victoria Warmerdam and Trent)
The Last Ranger (Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek)
Prediction: The Last Ranger
Sounds kind of like the Lone Ranger! That's fun.
What do you think will win? I think we got it this year.
