Oscar Zone Vol. III; Part 1: Nominations and Predictions

Well folks, here we are again, an exciting time of the year to break away from the drull January Season, the Oscar Nominations were officially released today and here are our first thoughts. Now, in the next month we'll give these first thoughts some careful analysis as the races ebb and flow. Some of our early guesses last year were wayyy off but we could have seen some winners yet from a week out or so. That said, it's a skill to guess it all from the beginning, so here we are.

Now, we have a very particular system for this thing around here. Politics and lobbying in Hollywood is a complex game and the most worthy nominees seldom actually bring home some gold. For that reason we highlight in RED the nominees we think deserve to win, in BLUE those that will win and naturally, when these choices actually do align, it's in a lovely shade of PURPLE. Let's get at it:

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The Artist (2011): Thomas Langmann

The Descendants (2011): Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011): Scott Rudin
The Help (2011): Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan
Hugo (2011): Graham King, Martin Scorsese
Midnight in Paris (2011): Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
Moneyball (2011): Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt
The Tree of Life (2011): Nominees to be determined
War Horse (2011): Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy

I thought both Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011) and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) were better than anything on this list. That said, The Artist is charming its way through Southern California right now and seems hellbent on grabbing Oscar, if only for pulling off what it does for the sheer novelty of it. The Descendants would be a quirkier win and its kind don't usually get the big prize. If both of these films get enough votes to cancel each other out though (and the gimmicks of The Artist proves too great), something like Hugo could step in and snatch it.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Demián Bichir for A Better Life (2011)

George Clooney for The Descendants (2011)

Jean Dujardin for The Artist (2011)

Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)

Brad Pitt for Moneyball (2011)

After a surprise snub of Michael Fassbender in Shame (2011), the Best Actor race isn't nearly as clear-cut as it has been recently. This is unbelievably Gary Oldman's lifetime first Oscar Nomination and I'm half-tempted to say that the Academy uses this opportunity to honour his work, similar to Jeff Bridges, John Wayne, Al Pacino and so on, who won awards for far less than their best work. This was not the case with Mickey Rourke a few years ago, however when the Academy turned instead to familiarity, honouring Sean Penn instead. I'm thinking something similar happens here, and this IS one of George's lifetime best roles, so I'm thinking he snatches it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs (2011)
Viola Davis for The Help (2011)

Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011)

Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady (2011)

Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn (2011)

This is an extremely competitive category this year. Truly, the women outshined the men in 2011. That said, no one committed more to a role than Rooney Mara did, although Meryl Streep shines more by being outstanding in an otherwise all-around terrible film. It is a big snub to Tilda Swinton, though, who carries a much better film as well or better than Meryl did.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn (2011)
Jonah Hill for Moneyball (2011)
Nick Nolte for Warrior (2011)

Christopher Plummer for Beginners (2010)

Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)

It's cool to see some Old Farts in this category (and...Jonah Hill), as well as nominations for people who didn't play intense villains. That said, there is also no clear-cut runaway winner here right now. Christopher Plummer has had an excellent late career as of late, and if people can distinguish between him and Max von Sydow he should get the win. People are whining that Albert Brooks didn't get nominated for Drive, and I would say that's more a novelty move anyway, at least until I saw Melissa McCarthy nominated for Bridesmaids.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Bérénice Bejo for The Artist (2011)

Jessica Chastain for The Help (2011)
Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids (2011)
Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs (2011)

Octavia Spencer for The Help (2011)

The Academy has loved giving this award to Black Chicks recently, so I'm almost cautious to think that this will be that easy to predict. The forces behind The Artist lobbied hard to get Bérénice Bejo in this category and away from the heavy competition in the Leading Actress category, and I think that may pay off. That said, Octavia is cresting hard right now as the likely winner. Can we also mention Melissa McCarthy? Great to see one of the best characters of the year recognized like that. And no love for that chick from The Secret Life of the American Teenager who was in The Descendants? Ouch.

Best Achievement in Directing

Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris (2011)
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (2011)
Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life (2011)
Alexander Payne for The Descendants (2011)

Martin Scorsese for Hugo (2011)

Scorsese is recognized again here. Hugo is such a competently and wonderfully directed film in a genre that Marty has never really attempted before. He pulls off the 3-D Children's action / nostalgia flick so well that I don't think there's any way around his winning.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

The Artist (2011): Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids (2011): Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo
Margin Call (2011): J.C. Chandor
Midnight in Paris (2011): Woody Allen
A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi

I don't see Bridesmaids being a real contender anywhere, although it's sweet that Kristen Wiig can add "Oscar-Nominated" to her resume the same way Matt Damon and Ben Affleck can write "Oscar-Winner" somehow. I don't think any other movie has the momentum behind it besides The Artist, which pulls off an emotional, entertaining story with very few actual words - quite the achievement (although, really isn't that what we started with in film?). Then again, many believe that this is Woody's category to lose. I think he loses.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

The Descendants (2011): Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash

Hugo (2011): John Logan
The Ides of March (2011): George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
Moneyball (2011): Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011): Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan

Dean Pelton, Oscar-Winning Screenwriter? The Descendants does have enough good momentum to nab this. I don't see Moneyball seriously contending anywhere, although the dialogue is crisp enough and works well to turn a very difficult subject into entertainment. Good Will Hunting (1997), arguably Juno (2007), and The Social Network (2010) won for doing the same thing. Now I'm wondering how I made my second Matt Damon reference of this post and also if I should change my vote...

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

A Cat in Paris (2010): Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli
Chico & Rita (2010): Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal
Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011): Jennifer Yuh
Puss in Boots (2011): Chris Miller

Rango (2011): Gore Verbinski

Luckiest nomination of the year certainly goes to Rango. I thought this was one of the best films of the year and somehow it landed in a category with Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots instead of Cars 2 (2011) and The Adventures of Tintin (2011). Both of those pics are prestigious enough to grab a ton of votes and in their absence I have to believe Rango ends up pooling it all.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Bullhead (2011): Michael R. Roskam (Belgium)
Footnote (2011): Joseph Cedar (Israel)
In Darkness (2011): Agnieszka Holland (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (2011): Philippe Falardeau (Canada)

A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi (Iran)

Believe it or not this is one of the easier categories to pick. A Separation has been making plenty of waves over here and is probably the one surefire lock I'll give. This thing should be nominated for Best Picture and will walk all over this category.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

The Artist (2011): Guillaume Schiffman

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Jeff Cronenweth

Hugo (2011): Robert Richardson

The Tree of Life (2011): Emmanuel Lubezki
War Horse (2011): Janusz Kaminski

This is a tough category. It would be easy for The Artist to run away with this if it starts sweeping, but the Cinematography itself isn't that innovative. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo's cinematography really stood out as an element that made that a better film, but I'm not thinking it gets a lot of love here. That leaves the breathtaking, 3-D work of Hugo, an Academy-Friendly Recognition, but this is really a toss-up.

Best Achievement in Editing

The Artist (2011): Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius

The Descendants (2011): Kevin Tent

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter

Hugo (2011): Thelma Schoonmaker
Moneyball (2011): Christopher Tellefsen

I'm treating this the same way as Cinematography. The editing in particular stands out with The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo but I'm not convinced it will win. The Artist is the safe bet right now but this could go a few ways.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

The Artist (2011): Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan

Hugo (2011): Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo

Midnight in Paris (2011): Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil
War Horse (2011): Rick Carter, Lee Sandales

I fail to see the Art Direction needed in The Artist. I can see this going either Hugo or Midnight in Paris' way, but as you can tell, I'm leaning more towards this being Marty's night rather than Woody's.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Anonymous (2011): Lisy Christl

The Artist (2011): Mark Bridges
Hugo (2011): Sandy Powell

Jane Eyre (2011): Michael O'Connor

W.E. (2011): Arianne Phillips

Costume Design tends to go to weird films that don't have much else going for them, and as such I rarely predict the right winners here. Why can't Madonna's film be an Academy-Award winner? There are plenty of reasons. Let's go Jane Eyre with a snub of Anonymous.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Albert Nobbs (2011): Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin

The Iron Lady (2011): Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland

This is certainly Mark and Roy's category to lose. They did a fantastic job recreating some of the historical people in The Iron Lady, and by historical I mean like only thirty years ago. It's flawless. Leading heavy in the race right now.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

The Adventures of Tintin (2011): John Williams

The Artist (2011): Ludovic Bource

Hugo (2011): Howard Shore
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011): Alberto Iglesias
War Horse (2011): John Williams

There isn't a runaway outstanding track like Trent Reznor's The Social Network last year (although his The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo deserves it). The Artist carries a lot of its back on its Score, SOUNDS good here hyuck hyuck.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

The Muppets (2011): Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet")

Rio (2011): Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett ("Real in Rio")

Is this a serious category? The Muppets only needs to beat Rio? This just turned into my lock of the night. For the record, this is why this happened.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson
Hugo (2011): Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
Moneyball (2011): Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin

War Horse (2011): Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson

I never really know where this is going, but I have always thought that the sound of all the Transformers films is underrated. Sound is so essential to those fast flicks, it provides a cue for the action far superior to visual stimuli. I honestly think that Dark of the Moon deserves it here. I mean, those foley artists had to come up with all kinds of weird Alien Technology sounds. That's tough, man.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Drive (2011): Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Ren Klyce
Hugo (2011): Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
War Horse (2011): Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom

This has Drive's name all over it. Without any other nominations and plenty of support I imagine this locks it up. It also does excel in careful editing and sound plays a huge effect on mood here.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects


Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson
Hugo (2011): Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning
Real Steel (2011): Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg

Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011): Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier

This seems like a no-brainer. The Academy finally has a chance to give a good movie this award instead of a mindless blockbuster, although that means that the Transformers Trilogy will have no Visual Effects award to show for their three films, which is unfortunate. The robots in Transformers look incredible and the integration of them into reality has been seamless throughout each installment, peaking with Dark of the Moon. It won't happen though.

Best Documentary, Features

Hell and Back Again (2011): Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front (2011): Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (2011): Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky

Pina (2011): Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel

Undefeated (2011): Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas

Apparently the big doc this year was Project Nim (2011), and that was a big snub. It's tough to say with these nominees, none really stand out as exceptional (read: I've heard of them). Based on titles...Pina?

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement (2011): Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin
God Is the Bigger Elvis (2011): Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson

Incident in New Baghdad (2011): James Spione

Saving Face (2011): Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (2011): Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen

The most brutal category. Let's move on.

Best Short Film, Animated

Dimanche (2011): Patrick Doyon
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (2011): William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg

La Luna (2011): Enrico Casarosa

A Morning Stroll (2011): Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe
Wild Life (2011): Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby

It's fairly safe to go with Pixar here, even though it hasn't yet been attached to a theatrical film (we'll see it next year before Brave [2012]). Considering this is their only category this year I want to lock it up.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Pentecost (2011): Peter McDonald

Raju (2011): Max Zähle, Stefan Gieren

The Shore (2011): Terry George, Oorlagh George

Time Freak (2011): Andrew Bowler, Gigi Causey

Tuba Atlantic (2010): Hallvar Witzø

We're down to just going by titles at this point, folks.

Well that's it. We'll see how terrible I do this year, and it's very possible my predictions shift as some films gain speed, others lose speed, although there isn't a race as heated as The Social Network / The King's Speech (2010) was last year. There are quite a handful of interesting acting races however, and I expect to be wrong about Viola Davis. We'll find out February 26!

First Impressions: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

I saw this a month ago now. Time to finally put up what I thought of it. David Fincher's The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) is by and large one of the best films of the year. It's emotionally gripping, adept storytelling, and compelling throughout its lengthy run time. That said, it's the kind of film that may not get much love come Award Season. It is not the kind of film, though, to care about what other people think of it. Some spoilers follow.

The first thing that really stands out for this flick is the colouration, cinematography, and direction. It's all spectacular. The mood set by lighting and camera angles continually matches the tone of the story and endures to snag the audience in to feel as much pain, sorrow, and even a bit of lovely loneliness that the characters feel. The manner in which this film was shot is in itself another factor in telling its story, which really is the best a Director can possibly shoot for. It is bleak when it needs to be bleak, cheerful when it needs to be cheerful (rarely), and remains interesting and engaging to look at.

From the opening credit sequence the emotionally intense and disturbing tone is set. This is integral to the film - the important story is told largely through emotion, although there is a fair share of technical analysis within the actual plot structure on the parts of the characters themselves, who act as crack detectives. The plot itself deals with some very heavy themes - incest, rape, abuse, manipulation, honour, and integrity are all major themes, mostly between family members.

The film is based on the novel of the same name, published posthumously by Stieg Larsson, who unbelievably apparently just had this shit lying around his house and was found after his death in 2004. The plot structure is very interesting. It is arguably deuteragonistic, focusing primarily on Mikael Blomkvist's (Danny Craig) story while Lisbeth Salander (Rooney Mara) has her own story, connected to Blomkvist at first and then wholly merged. Salander's path is essential to establishing her desire to aid Blomkvist when he tells her he is investigating crimes against women.

There are a lot of women in trouble here. Lisbeth's rape by her welfare officer is difficult to watch, but that's certainly not the worst that happens to the ladies here (see for instance, the original Swedish Title, Men Who Hate Women). There is certainly a parallel between Lisbeth and Harriet Vanger. The actresses playing each role appear strikingly similar physically and are similarly routinely abused. Both also eventually gain the upper hand and outwit their male oppressors (Alright - Huge Spoiler - Harriet by running away, Lisbeth by...well, you ought to see it yourself). It's about women breaking this oppression and securing their own lives and independence.

The film continues this idea of female empowerment. When Blomkvist is captured and helpless, a man in distress he is saved by the more than capable damsel, Salander. She also initiates, then directs the relationship she forms with him because he is one of the only sexual male figures in the story to respect her. When she spies him with another girl at the end though, she reverts to her emotionally confined shell. She is fundamentally anti-social and does not care to abide by societal rules, both pragmatically and in interaction with any other humans. When she finally allows herself to bond and connect with another person, Blomkvist, she misinterprets his attachment to her as exclusive, and hurts all the more when this is not true.

Salander is the really interesting character here and Rooney spectacularly devotes herself to the role. Near anorexic because of lack of food, fiercely dressed (which is ridiculous as a fashion movement), and completely apathetic to the world's judgment, Salander has become an immortal cinematic character. Rooney is also really hot and gets naked constantly, so that's a plus.

As for the rest of the cast, Chris Plummer has become the go-to old dude in many films lately (see also his Golden Globe win for Beginners [2011]) and he doesn't disappoint in that role here. And naturally, since this is a Nordic film, Stellan Skarsgård needs to make an appearance. If Antonio Banderas is the only bankable Mexican Hollywood has, Skarsgård is certainly the dude for anything connected to the North Sea. He's also a perfect slimy evil dude here. I'll never really hear "Orinoco Flow" the same way again, that's for sure.

Daniel Craig is very competent. He tends to be anti-Bond in many circumstances, running, crying, getting captured and basically being a normal human unlike some of his other recent franchise-oriented roles. He carries the story well, especially when we are able to see that Blomkvist is really just a disgraced, lonely man who connects with Lisbeth because he also can't deal properly with the rest of society. His only difference with Salander in this regard is that he still attempts to.

This was a wonderful Christmas movie. Really, the perfect feel-bad film of the season. That being said, I haven't read any of the books, nor seen any of the Swedish flicks. I don't care. This was an excellent film in every conceivable way and if the other interpretations of the novel (and the novel itself) are any good then good for them. This was still an incredibly gripping, intense, and rewarding experience. Like I said, I think it's a bit too out there and intense for casual Oscar Voters to recognize anything, and tho Rooney was nominated for a Golden Globe and may get an Oscar Nomination, it's an incredibly competitive year for the Women's Categories. So go see it, even though I am far too late in recommending it!

2012: Other Crap to Look Forward To

Two days ago we discussed a handful of things we are looking forward to in 2012. That list was somewhat limited by its "12 Things in 2012" gimmick as well as the fact that not everything in the following year is going to be great. In fact, much of it will probably suck. In fact, much of that list will probably suck. Nevertheless, Here are a handful of other crap that may be cool in the next year:

More Movies:

Too bad your subject died this year

There are a handful of other movies coming out that have some potential for awesome. Within this very month we're anticipating Haywire and The Grey as further proof that January is getting less terrible and turning into alternate action star vehicles (read: MMA chick beats up A-Listers and Liam Neeson fights wolves). As we go further down the line there are some other franchise flicks that may take off but we're skeptical about. Yes, more skeptical than G.I. Joe: Retaliation. This includes The Hunger Games, which seem overrated and a veiled attempt at sucking more cash out of the Twilight Generation and The Hobbit, which by all means looks fine, although to be honest I don't think 2012 has the same fresh Tolkien Spirit that grabbed the nation a decade ago. I'm also concerned about the struggling production after the Ring Trilogy went so smoothly.

There are also three comedies we're looking at this year that have some potential of being awesome, although none are exactly knocking us out of the park. The first, mainstream big summer comedy is Sacha Baron Cohen's The Dictator, which they wisely say is from the makers of Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (2006), not Brüno (2009). It's tough that Sacha's style hasn't really hit movies in starring roles besides Borat in the way his TV career did with Da Ali G Show. Can Sacha do for Gaddafi what Charlie Chaplin did for Hitler? Who knows.

We've also got our eyes on The Five-Year Engagment, as Jason Segel's likeability grows along with Emily Blunt's hotness. Then there's this bizarre 21 Jump Street trailer that somehow looks pretty funny, which works better when seeing it in the movie theater without the judgment that it's a TV show remake. At any rate, this will be the Year of Channing. Do with that what you will.

TV Times:

Fat Guy from LOST, you will always be known as Fat Guy from LOST.

There are exactly two-shows right now that look interesting at all to come out of 2012, but there's certainly some room yet to develop a rich Fall Schedule, although obviously nothing will be as good as New Girl. Actually, it's surprising how much New Girl fails the Bechdel Test. Anyway, the mid-season replacement with the most potential towards being the kind of long-term puzzling LOST-rip-off is clearly Alcatraz, about a bunch of its inmates disappearing in the 60s and reappearing...in modern times! Ohhh, fuckin shit!

We're more excited to see Don Cheadle go nuts, Captain Planet-Style in House of Lies, which is topical as well as massively entertaining. We need another slimeball on TV. And that slimeball needs to be played by Don Cheadle cutting lose and not worrying about his prestige career for a second. Also it's got Jean-Ralphio in a starring role. Thank goodness.

Musical Modes:

As we're moving along here it's more difficult to say what exactly we're pumped up for. There are plenty of artists with some new albums coming out but it's tough to say if they will have any quality or not. Some high profile releases include new work by DMX, Outkast, Madonna, and Mumford & Sons. It may be strange that I appreciate all of those artists equally, but that's that. The most tantalizing (and named) album of the year may be Tyler the Creator's Wolf as a direct follow-up to 2011's Goblin. It's tough to say who is going to fall through the cracks though, last year gave us Adele, Foster the People and LMFAO out of no where.

That's it. Everything you need to know about 2012. Start praying against the Mayans.