12 March 2024

OSCAR Prediction Results - not that bad!

Another Oscar season has now passed and obviously I did pretty well when I stopped really paying attention to anything. It was in general a ceremony that didn't fill me with rage, either! There wasn't really a single win that's upsetting, but I don't know if I'd take no wins for Maestro for no wins for Killers of the Flower Moon. Let's get into everything:

Best Picture


American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

1/1

Got it! Now this was the easiest call in recent memory. There were some close calls, but looking back, none really seem like they could have been a credible threat.

Best Actress


Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Gladstone

Actual Winner: Stone

1/2

Hey, this was our toss-up and I failed it. I wouldn't have gone for the double young white girl winner over what could have been a great moment for American Indian actors, but oh well. To be fair, Stone knocks this out of the park, probably better than Lily, and it was way better than La La Land (2016).


Best Actor


Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Predicted Winner: Murphy

Actual Winner: Murphy

2/3

I was so close to picking Giamatti, but I'm glad I went with my guy for Cillian. Well deserved, phenomenal work, no gripes here.

Best Supporting Actress


Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Predicted Winner: Randolph

Actual Winner: Randolph

3/4

I don't know what this role is even about but a clear cut predicted winner. Easy.


Best Supporting Actor


Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: RDJ

Actual Winner: RDJ

4/5

I don't think Gosling was ever a real contender. This is a great win for Robert Downey, Jr. What a career, what a turn around for this guy.


Best Director


Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Nolan

Actual Winner: Nolan

5/6

Finally, Academy Award winning director Chris Nolan. Righteous. The best is still to come!


Best Original Screenplay


Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Actual Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

6/7

This turned out to be easy, even if I was skeptical that this could actually pull it off. But it ended up being the heavy favorite. I have no real issues, glad to get the nod.


Best Adapted Screenplay


American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: American Fiction

Actual Winner: American Fiction


7/8

BAM! I never get these right. This just really felt like an American Fiction category, but I'm always wrong about that stuff, so this is great.


Best Cinematography


El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Killers of the Flower Moon

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

7/9

So Oppenheimer ended up just crushing everything, I really wasn't thinking Flower Moon would walk away with nothing, but that's that, I guess. It was a really clear sweep instead of any even distribution. I hedged my bets a bit because it's rare that the favorite actually does win everything, but hey - it did!

Best Original Score


American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer


8/10

I mean, thanks Oppenheimer for making it generally easy. I through it out for Cinematography but thought it would get the score still, and I nailed that one.


Best Original Song


"The Fire Inside," Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)," Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie

Winner: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie

Actual Winner: The other song from Barbie

8/11

Alright, whatever. I shouldn't have missed this open lay-up. Bonehead, but c'mon, even the performance at the ceremony was mind-blowing. Why are we going with the sappier ballad? I know, I know, we all knew what they'd choose. I suck.

Best Editing


Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

9/12

Got 'em.


Best Production Design


Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Barbie

Actual Winner: Poor Things


9/13

Poor Things had a very good night and while this is deserved, I still think Barbie should have had the edge, but ultimately despite a lot of fanfare throughout the night, Barbie didn't really pull down that many accolades. Poor Things did and it was an easy clean up here. I don't think I would have ever picked this, so oh well.

Best Costume Design


Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Actual Winner: Poor Things

10/14

I nailed this one, it was in the right zone of period piece, but also really weird and distinctive.


Best Makeup and Hairstyling


Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Actual Winner: Poor Things

10/15

So I had mentioned Poor Things as being the most deserving, and I can't believe it actually pulled this off. I didn't think it'd get past Maestro or Oppenheimer. Poor Things is so bizarre because it calls so much attention to its artificiality and not to mention that it is so damn deeply, deeply weird. Oscars are going for these boffo pics lately, which is amazing.


Best Sound


The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest


10/16

I would have definitely never picked this one. Like how? I mean, I know it's good but amazing that Oppie dropped this one of all categories, and to a really small scale film. It's all really cool and great for cinema but just surprising as hell. This always goes to war or action films.

Best Visual Effects


The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

Predicted Winner: Godzilla Minus One

Actual Winner: Godzilla Minus One

11/17

Yay! Such a good win. Good for Godzilla, great for action figures. I love it.

Best International Feature


Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Precited Winner: The Zone of Interest


Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest
12/18

Another very easy one, simple win.

Best Animated Feature


The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: The Boy and the Heron

Actual Winner: The Boy and the Heron

13/19

I literally fist-pumped. Not that I didn't like AtSV, I adored that film, but it never felt as real of a contender as the Heron. I'm just happy I got a rogue pick for once.

Best Animated Short


Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Predicted Winner: John and Yoko

Actual Winner: John and Yoko

14/20

Yeah, I guess. Can't believe I actually won this. When you get the shorts, it just seals it as a good year.

Best Live-Action Short


The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Predicted Winner: Sugar

Actual Winner: Sugar

15/21

Thank you Wes Anderson for definitely guaranteeing an easy Oscar prediction in a category that is usually stupid as hell.

Best Documentary Feature


Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Predicted Winner: Mariupol

Actual Winner: Mariupol

16/22

Again, easy one. I'm happy with it!

Best Documentary Short


The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Winner: Book Burning

Actual Winner: Repair Shop

16/23

Ok, whatever.


Anyway, 16/23 is the most I've ever gotten in the modern, 23-category era, and ties my second highest best years ever. And I should have probably gotten 17 with the right Barbie song. I maybe could have picked Poor Things for make-up and hairstyling I wasn't a bitter, jaded guy who was convinced I'd lose, but I don't think I would have changed anything else. I'm happy with the haul, so let's update the annual records:

First, our annual records:

2024: 16/23
2023: 11/23
2022: 12/23
2021: 12/23
2020: 13/24 
2019: 13/24 
2018: 16/24 
2017: 13/24 
2016: 14/24 
2015: 13/24 
2014: 20/24 
2013: 14/24 
2012: 16/24 
2011: 14/24 
2010: 12/24 

28 February 2024

182nd Annual Oscar Prediction Post

We're here once again to give our Oscar predictions! Now, on a good year we're lucky to get like 50% of these things right. This is an exceptional year, though, as it's loaded with front runners, especially in the dud categories, so we're hoping for a little more. We'll see as always for Hollywood's Dumbest Night!


Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Winner: Oppenheimer

With all the major necessary awards and truly the cherriest of combos - historical biopic, popular, critically acclaimed, lots of acting noms, a deserved director, this seems like one of the more in the bag predictions of the last few years. What a strange world we're living in. Thanks a lot, Oppenheimer.


Best Actress


Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Winner: Gladstone

This one's tough. I can see Emma Stone pulling this off, but I also can't see her as being a two-time Academy Award winner. Then again, you've got Christoph Waltz and Mahershala Ali doing these things recently and I doubted them for the same reason. I kind of think KotFM is just too popular to not win anything.


Best Actor


Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Winner: Murphy

I don't know, I could eat my hat on this. Murphy seems to be the frontrunner but Giamatti is right there. I think after cleaning up BAFTA and SAG there isn't much more wiggle room for Giamatti, and it's got everything the Academy usually likes, AND well deserved for once.


Best Supporting Actress


Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Winner: Randolph

No one seems to talk about how the Academy DEFINITELY gives supporting awards to black folk, particularly black women as a way of saying they're invited to the party but aren't the main show. I think it's racist. I haven't seen The Holdovers and maybe Randolph is a revelation and I'm sure she is actually deserving but it's the same reason the white hero always has black sidekicks in Marvel movies.


Best Supporting Actor


Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Winner: RDJ

I mean, c'mon this would be pretty sweet.


Best Director


Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

 Winner: Nolan

It's about time, I just don't think anyone catches him at this point. The Academy has liked to split this, but there aren't really enough viable films contending here to earn that. And Lanthimos probably did the best job, but they're not awarding fucking Yorgos Lanthimos.


Best Original Screenplay


Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

I would have picked something safer like The Holdovers in a vacuum, but this thing just keeps sweeping awards and seems to be the clear favorite. I'm a big May December guy myself, which got to no attention anywhere, but I don't think it can win here. All these films are pretty high profile in an indie writing sense, so it'd be fun anywhere. Except Maestro. Screw that bait.


Best Adapted Screenplay


American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Winner: American Fiction

Doesn't it feel like this is a category where a film like American Fiction should win? Just outside, but still popular, but not International. I don't think Oppenheimer will totally sweep just because that's really rare, and c'mon, how is Barbie adapted from anything. Bizarre.


Best Cinematography


El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Killers of the Flower Moon

El Conde was really good! It won't get attention here. And Poor Things is doing more things with the camera than most films. Oppenheimer is the heavy favorite, but again, it's not going to win everything and I think the next biggest can upset here.


Best Original Score


American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Oppenheimer

See, this is where no one gets upset. Oppenheimer is definitely the best nominee here and then we can all move on with our lives.


Best Original Song


"The Fire Inside," Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)," Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie

Winner: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie


I legit think "I'm Just Ken" can do this, it's the most notable song of the year, everyone knows it, it's top to bottom solid. Everyone thinks the other Barbie song will get it, why bro? It's boring af. I think people say they'll vote with their hearts and minds, but they are really going to vote with their butts. We'll see if I bungle this slam dunk category. So Flamin' Hot was a real movie, eh?


Best Editing


Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Oppenheimer

Move on with our lives


Best Production Design


Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Barbie

Barbie had legit the best production design I've seen in a real long time and seems to be leading the pack here. Very deserved and would be an awesome win.


Best Costume Design


Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Poor Things


Is it weird that I don't think Barbie's costuming is that great? It's not like the production design. I think this has gone to a lot of sci-fi and period pieces in the past and Poor Things fits that bill well, especially if it is actually as loved as the nominations are pointing it out to be.


Best Makeup and Hairstyling


Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Winner: Maestro

I picked the one that I want to win the least, which means it will. Oh, you always slap a fake nose on someone and it wins an Oscar. It's stupid. We'll see if this can go to Poor Things or the actually underrated subtlety of Oppenheimer instead,


Best Sound


The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Winner: Oppenheimer

Hey, there are some fun nominees here, but dude for the pep rally alone you know Oppenheimer is walking away with this one.


Best Visual Effects


The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

Winner: Godzilla Minus One

I think this has some more momentum behind it - The Creator is a great second pick but I just don't think it was that widely seen or had a lot of buzz. I also really just want to see Marvel and Tom Cruise stew about being beat by these real low budget flicks.


Best International Feature


Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Winner: The Zone of Interest


Easily the most high profile film here. Done.


Best Animated Feature


The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Winner: The Boy and the Heron

As pumped as I was for the first Spider-Verse movie to win, I don't think the sequel pulls it off when there's a new Miyazaki film at play.


Best Animated Short


Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Winner: John and Yoko

You're telling me folks aren't going to just vote for the Beatles.


Best Live-Action Short


The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Winner: Sugar

Easily the most high profile release, Wes Anderson, big names, people saw it on Netflix. Could be upset, but dang bro playing with fire in a house of matches this one.


Best Documentary Feature


Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Winner: Mariupol

Madripool or whatever sounds good


Best Documentary Short


The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Winner: Book Burning

 My stars, my stars, a year where the bobo categories seem obvious? What a world. We'll see, we could all still be super wrong.

01 January 2024

2023 Movie Watching in Review!

 It's time again for one of my favorite annual traditions - adding up all the movies I watched last year and pulling together some mildly interesting data! We have been doing this since 2015 and I'm proud to say this was our lightest year, yet! Here are our on-going stats:

201520162017201820192020202120222023
Total movies198220224249200182181202171
First-time viewingsn/a117133157131110111154102
First-time viewing %n/a53%59%63%66%60%61%76%60%
Streamingn/a5581157118133134160133
Streaming %n/a25%36%63%59%73%74%79%78%
TV86845510731137
TV %43%38%25%4%4%2%6%1%4%
Theater1011121682796
Theater %5%5%5%6%4%1%4%4%4%

As you can see, our first-time viewings were in line, percentage-wise with previous years, besides 2022, when I made the 52 in '22 concentrated effort to watch a lot of new things. It's amazing to see when that unraveled how much I fell back into typical habits. I don't mean to rewatch so many films!

Stgreaming's percentage has leveled off and we'll see if it sticks around that high 70% or so or continues to crawl. I had a bit more on TV, which was almost 100% hotel room stays, and my theater percentage has been very steady. I hate to say it to theater owners, but it is barely different from pre-pandemic numbers.

Methods

Disney+2112.3%
Netflix Streaming1911.1%
Amazon Prime1810.5%
HBOMax179.9%
Netflix DVD148.2%
Peacock137.6%
Hulu137.6%
Max127.0%
Paramount+116.4%
Planes95.3%
Other Streaming95.3%
TV74.1%
Theater63.5%
DVD21.2%
Total Streaming:13377.8%

 Now, don't let Disney+'s numbers fool you, I separated MAX from HBOMax, which adds up to 29 movies, by far the most. Disney+ was mostly five Star Wars movies on January 1st, 2022, and a bunch of Christmas movies in December. I should note that they've still fallen - the past two years HBOMax has had around 60 movies, or 30%. Combined this year they're about 17%. Tbat's still my preferred method by a good chunk, but way way down.

A lot of that is assuredly them not being so eager to throw WB's movies on streaming so fast, but it's also definitely a dip both in quality of offerings and a heavily nerfed interface that no longer makes it easy to see both movies leaving soon and new arrivals.

What's remarkable is Amazon nearly matching Netflix after years of irrelevancy, and how Peacock, Hulu, and Paramount+ have all sort of leveled out, in a not insignificant way. The other streaming movies came from Apple TV+, XUMO, TUBI, YouTube, and Xfinity.

Lastly, let us mourn Netflix DVD. They conked out in September, so our numbers would have assuredly been higher, but I'm guessing Streaming's share crawls up even more.

Years

1930s10.6%
1940s10.6%
1950s31.8%
1960s21.2%
1970s105.8%
1980s2313.5%
1990s148.2%
2000s1810.5%
2010s2917.0%
2020s6940.4%
20234023.4%

Nothing too mind-blowing here. I was surprised that I saw more 80s films than both the 90s and 2000s. As usual, we could do more pre-1960s. I had a kid this year, man, I went to the default. To get those olden, hard to find, brand-less films I just need to be super-intentional. This wasn't the year for that!

Months

201520162017201820192020202120222023AVERAGE
January19172316221515171618
February11151214172115111014
March15121816142716121616
April15231525222313121818
May15172213192229191219
June2016258181924181718
July16151618171510151715
August1214182518251417617
September10141613201612141214
October14201710192410151816
November1218181018212016916
December22212028202122162021

At this point it's clear that I have no monthly trends. February and September are busy months that usually dip and December generally peaks as I catch up on the year, have more time, and watch some Christmas movies.

August was my worst month ever. I had never had a month under 10, and I had two this year. Oh well. 2018 was nuts, with eight months with over 20 movies. That's how you get to 249! I think this month chart isn't accurate to the year. That's okay.

Genre

Action4425.7%
Adventure169.4%
Comedy5431.6%
Drama3419.9%
Documentary10.6%
Mockumentary10.6%
Horror158.8%
Thriller42.3%
Romance21.2%

For the first time we tracked genre! Comedy and action dominated, which shouldn't be too big of a surprise. I really debated how specific to get - I think I started out tracking Sci-Fi, Western, etc but apparently gave that up at some point. If anyone wants to get more specific, leave a comment! Ha.

I'd like to keep doing genre. At this level until I get bored.

What does our future hold? Man I don't know what streaming service is going to come out on top. Peacock and Paramount+ are nice for their specific studios' new releases, but really not much else. However, there are so many movies that I just wouldn't really see in theaters. I'm genuinely curious if studios think about this. They must, right? Surely people are like me, I know I'm more of a cinephile than the average person, but surely that means that I am actually going to the theater much more often than the average person. But I still only saw 3.5% of all the movies I saw in the theater.

All that means is that I really don't think we should care at all about Box Office numbers. I don't think bombs exist anymore. We should really think about cultural influence in terms of total number of eyeballs that watched a piece of media. Now, for some reason that's difficult, even though streaming services can assuredly track all this stuff more accurately than any previous time in history. I don't know why studios don't just go full into announcing these kinds of metrics and totally ignore the cinema. The audiences have! Was The Flash that big of a bomb this year? How many folks watched it on MAX? Probably more than ever watched Batman Returns (1992), which is an insane statement, but for real, we're in a scary new world and it's time to except that the streaming vs. theater experience is 78% vs. 3.5%.

I posit that more people are watching more movies than ever before. This is probably a big reason why we seem to lack cultural events - when a big movie was in the theater as the best possible viewing experience (images on both VHS and TVs sucked for such a long time) we all went. But more than that, when we can watch anything any time, even though we have much greater distribution and are seeing more movies than ever, that's precisely the problem. We aren't sharing and festering on one event, we've got seven more to get through throughout the year and it's that much harder for anything to stand out.

All that makes Super Mario, Barbie, and Oppenheimer all that much more interesting - as each one was a novel experience. It's strange to me that again, who knows how many eyeballs actually watched every movie of the year, but the top Box Office films also still felt like the biggest event films. Might that just be how much our culture globs on to cinema still? Or just that when culture is concentrated around a weekend it somehow feels more significant than say, spread out over both cinematic and VOD releases? I have eagerly anticipated a few streaming releases this year, like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, although I swear they changed that a ton of times. If they hyped up VOD releases maybe they could conquer this (and I should say, free streaming releases, I don't know why anyone would pay $20 for these films on VOD. We do have all sorts of weird hangups, like even though our TV can match the big screen in quality, it's still not equal financially).

This is also all a big way to create sleeper cult hits. Because of course there's more than one way to become culturally relevant. So many films have found their niche on TV or DVD, in fact even the biggest films who can't repeat that success tend to fade into the background. That's why we tend to do best of lists around here one to ten years apart. It takes a really long time for great films to sink in. This is a long way of saying, I think that's just our world now.

What do we have in store for 2024?! Check back in a year to find out
Related Posts with Thumbnails