OSCARS 2012: LIVE RESULTS!

Well, you found us, folks. About 10 minutes to go now and we'll put this out in unedited, LIVE glory. Contained here are my best predictions as well as how far off I was.


Best Achievement in Cinematography

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Robert Richardson

Confidence: 70%

Actual Winner: Hugo. Nailed it. I wasn't all that confident to be honest, but it seems as though the competent 3-D blend paid off here.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo

Confidence: 90%

Actual Winner: Hugo. Again, this was fairly easy to predict, 2/2 so far.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Sandy Powell

Confidence: 50%

Actual Winner: The Artist. I wasn't really sure about this one, I was hoping that Costume, Art Direction, and Cinematography would go together. Good to know that The Artist is building some momentum. And was that J. Lo's nipple? Spank bank filled!

Best Achievement in Make-up

Predicted Winner: The Iron Lady (2011): Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Iron Lady was seen from a mile away, it's the kind of movie where the make-up outshines the performances and certainly the film itself. A year with some terrible make-up features like J. Edgar (2011) really shows how difficult realistic age make-up actually is.And Cameron Diaz, try to be relevant

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Predicted Winner: A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi (Iran)

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: A Separation. One of the easiest categories to pick of the night. It's a testament to how liberal the Iranian people are despite how oppressively conservative the government is. This is a great film. This dude is right on in this speech, by the way.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Predicted Winner: Octavia Spencer for The Help (2011)

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: Octavia Spencer. Could Xtian Bale be more intense? Could Bérénice Bejo be more hot? This is a great award for her in a pretty competitive category this year. Look at that Standing O. I do still think she looks like a froggie though. Nice jazz to play her out.

Best Achievement in Editing

Predicted Winner: The Artist (2011): Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011). This is an excellent upset, one that I didn't see coming at all, but had really wanted to happen. Its editing was outstanding and staple of what made it so good. This is fantastic, it obviously caught both of the editors off guard as much as anyone else!

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty

Confidence: 85%

Actual Winner: Hugo. So far almost none of the Hugo-favoured awards have disappointed. It's the kind of technically brilliant film that doesn't exactly have a completely spectacular story. Witty thank yous, sound editor. Also Tina Fey has mom arms but Bradley Cooper is really pulling off that 'stash.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Tom Fleischman, John Midgley

Confidence: 90%

Actual Winner: Hugo. I think they need more jokes about how stupid these awards are. But again, no surprise here, Hugo is cleaning up the technicals as expected. And how much does Cirque du Soleil suck? I couldn't care less about these surrender-monkeys. To be honest, as expected it's as if the Academy is trying to remind us all about how special the movies are. Listen folks, no one needs to be reminded how special movies are. That's why we want to download them for free. There's only so much of a tribute to themselves we can possibly take. I think the camera should just stay on Stacy Keibler.

Best Documentary, Features

Predicted Winner: Pina (2011): Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel

Confidence: 80%

Actual Winner: Undefeated (2011). Nice to see at least a half-way funny presentation from Downey, Jr. and Paltrow. Anyway, this award seemed to be up between Pina and Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (2011), but it seems as though the large teamster contingent of the Academy honoured Undefeated instead. Makes sense. Are they cutting mikes to cut speeches now?

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Predicted Winner: Rango (2011): Gore Verbinski

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: Rango. One of the easiest choices of the year. I think this was one of the best films of any kind this year and it certainly deserves this award. It will be interesting to see a longform list of Animated winners that will eventually be just all Pixar, along with this brilliant work. And Chris Rock needs to get out there more - that shit was hilarious.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Predicted Winner: Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011): Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: Hugo. Wow. Rise of the Planet of the Apes by all accounts seemed like a lock. The Academy, it appears, is really in love with Hugo. It is a shame that no Transformers movie won a Visual Effects award, if anything, that was one thing that franchise really established. Maybe the fourth film will do it. It's also nice Harry Potter got the guy who played Lucius Malfoy to talk about their make-up and visual effects. I mean, c'mon, anyone else from that huge series? 8/12 at the halfway mark.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Predicted Winner: Christopher Plummer for Beginners (2010)

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: Christopher Plummer. This was a no-brainer and a much-deserved award for the oldest dude to receive this award ever. Chris Plummer has the kind of dignity and class that really belongs at this ceremony, the confidence and established demeanor that makes him captivating to watch. He's the grandpa we all want to have getting drunk at Christmas. He still looks like he could die at any moment.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Predicted Winner: The Artist (2011): Ludovic Bource

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Artist. This film needed a great score desperately to fit in the gaps from a lack of dialogue. Ludovic knocked it out of the park and his honour here is no surprise.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Predicted Winner: The Muppets (2011): Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet")

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Muppets. Astounding win, this was great, very well-deserved, one of the best songs of the year created by either a man or a muppet. The most ridiculous category of the night presented by the most ridiculous presenters.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Predicted Winner: The Descendants (2011): Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Descendants. Why are Angelina's arms so disgustingly skinny? Anyway, no surprise here. Dean Pelton has an Oscar. So does the German guy from Beerfest (2006). What do we do now?

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Predicted Winner: Midnight in Paris (2011): Woody Allen

Confidence: 80%

Actual Winner: Midnight in Paris. I wasn't all that certain of this one but it's certainly a good win for the guy. Jeez, we still got all the crappy short subject categories to get through.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Predicted Winner: Raju (2011): Max Zähle, Stefan Gieren

Confidence: 75%

Actual Winner: The Shore (2011). Well, toss-up of the year, who cares.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Predicted Winner: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (2011): Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen

Confidence: 70%

Actual Winner: Saving Face (2011). Dammit. It's so vindicating to nail the short subject winners. I don't think there was really any buzz behind Saving Face, good for them I guess. And the Scorcese drinking game needs to catch on. This may be one of the first callbacks to a presentation at a previous award show, which rules.

Best Short Film, Animated

Predicted Winner: La Luna (2011): Enrico Casarosa

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (2011). Well, double-dammit. La Luna seemed to be the one apparent Short Lock. How the hell are these films even chosen? They all look freaking crazy. 13/20 going into the Big Four.

Best Achievement in Directing

Predicted Winner: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (2011)

Confidence: 90%

Actual Winner: Hazanavicius. I don't think Michael Douglas had any idea how to pronounce that name. This was a big win for him over Marty and Woody, but after the DGA win this was pretty solidly expected.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted Winner: Jean Dujardin for The Artist (2011)

Confidence: 80%

Actual Winner: Jean Dujardin. Billy Crystal is that perfect mix of honourable asshole, isn't he? Dujardin is one weird dude, but I'm glad I got on the side that picked him and not George. Although he can't speak a lick of English. It's incredible that in a year that saw A-List Megastars Pitt and Clooney, as well as severely underawarded Gary Oldman in the same category, this crazy Frenchman pulled away with the statue. And that's just how sexy Dujardin really is.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Viola Davis for The Help (2011)

Confidence: 85%

Actual Winner: Meryl Streep. To be honest, with all of her nominations she hasn't won jack in thirty years and this is deserved. I had picked her originally when the nominations came out last month but I really thought that Violin Davis had the buzz going.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Predicted Winner: The Artist (2011): Thomas Langmann

Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Artist. Man there were some terrible nominees this year. This really may seem like a crazy winner, but in this moment in this false self-questioning of Hollywood's own relevance, the tribute this film pays to Hollywood itself makes it a darling.

I ended the year 16/24, which is my best year doing this, so that's saying something. Those Short Categories killed me and there were some mild upsets here and there. I did lose three categories I was 100% confident about - Editing, Visual Effects, and Animated Short. Oh well. Good night.

Oscar Zone Vol. III; Part 6: 24-Hrs To Go Predictions

Well folks, we're 24 hours from the Oscar Ceremony and I've got to say, much of my picks a month ago have changed. In order to save my ass and still look like I know what I'm talking about, it's time for a change-up. This will therefore be a quick run-down of who all the winners will definitely be. I'll also give you how confident I am for each. Let's get to it now, starting with the crappy categories that no one can predict anyway:

 Best Documentary, Short Subjects

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (2011): Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen

Confidence: 70%

Best Short Film, Live Action

Raju (2011): Max Zähle, Stefan Gieren

Confidence: 75%

Best Short Film, Animated

La Luna (2011): Enrico Casarosa

Confidence: 100%

Best Documentary, Features

Pina (2011): Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel

Confidence: 80%

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011): Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett

Confidence: 100%

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Hugo (2011): Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty

Confidence: 85%

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Hugo (2011): Tom Fleischman, John Midgley

Confidence: 90%

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

The Muppets (2011): Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet")

Confidence: 100%

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

The Artist (2011): Ludovic Bource

Confidence: 100%

Best Achievement in Makeup

The Iron Lady (2011): Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland

Confidence: 100%

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Hugo (2011): Sandy Powell

Confidence: 50%

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Hugo (2011): Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo

Confidence: 90%

Best Achievement in Editing

The Artist (2011): Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius

Confidence: 100%

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Hugo (2011): Robert Richardson

Confidence: 70%

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi (Iran)

Confidence: 100%

 Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Rango (2011): Gore Verbinski

Confidence: 100%

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

The Descendants (2011): Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash

Confidence: 100%

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Midnight in Paris (2011): Woody Allen

Confidence: 80%

Best Achievement in Directing

Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (2011)

Confidence: 90%

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Octavia Spencer for The Help (2011)

Confidence: 100%

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Christopher Plummer for Beginners (2010)

Confidence: 100%

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Viola Davis for The Help (2011)

Confidence: 85%

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Jean Dujardin for The Artist (2011)

Confidence: 80%

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The Artist (2011): Thomas Langmann

Confidence: 100%

Spoilers:

Live Action Short: Time Freak

Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Sound Mixing: Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Costume Design: Anyone

Cinematography: The Tree of Life

Original Screenplay: The Artist

Director: Marty

Best Actress: Meryl

Best Actor: George

24 Hours, mateys!

Oscar Zone Vol. III, Part 5: Best Picture Chances

Well folks, we're a week out of the big Ceremony and today we're talking about the biggest category of all - Best Picture. It's time to go through the odds of all these great and sometimes crappy flicks vying against each other. There has been plenty of politicking the past few weeks, and unlike the tough touch-out finish last year, I don't think the winner will really be contested. Nevertheless, let's chat:

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (2011): Scott Rudin

This emotionally manipulative film barely squeaked into the nine candidates this year and there is very little chance that it will bring home a statue. Beyond the buzz for Max Von Sydow's supporting performance there is very little else here despite the presence of Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock. This film overly caters to its Oscar desire and comes off as a very obvious and obnoxious piece of work despite its sensitive subject material.
Chances of Winning: 1/9

War Horse (2011): Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy
This, like Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is the kind of expected Oscar bait that just doesn't really work anymore. More recently the Academy has awarded innovation such as Slumdog Millionaire (2008) and the Hurt Locker (2009). More than that, actually, it has awarded the films who can campaign the best. Spielberg, for all his greatness, has a relatively spotty history with the Academy, and if this year's complete snub of The Adventures of Tintin (2011) is any indication (overrated anyway), they're not in a mood to give Steve anything.
Chances of Winning: 2/9

The Tree of Life (2011): Dede Gardner, Sarah Green, Grant Hill, Brad Pitt, Bill Pohlad

I may look foolish for placing this so low on the list here. The strongest indicator of its success is the fact that little people predicted it would be considered for anything - it was too out there or too existential. Despite that notion, it received plenty of nominations and was leading in buzz way back last year after it won the Palme d'Or. That said, it is way too out there and existential to bring it all home. It's the least accessible and digestible nominee and in a year where film nostalgia has dominated the mind of the Academy it would be a shock to award such experimental innovation as Malick has done here.
Chances of Winning: 3/9

The Help (2011): Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan
This is riding a nice wave reminiscent of The Blind Side (2009) or The Kids Are All Right (2010). It's a patronizing film that the Academy can throw in to look progressive. It's that kind of feel-good about a tough subject that has stifled true Black Creativity since Remember the Titans (2000). It is looking more and more like it will sweep the Actress Awards, and its big SAG award for Best Ensemble gives it a boost, but it seems unlikely that it will be Best Picture.
Chances of Winning: 4/9

Midnight in Paris (2011): Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
Woody pulled off a great upset in 1977 when Annie Hall beat out Star Wars, and that always seems to be a possibility. He has been irrelevant for years but Midnight in Paris seems to give his career some fresh life. I think it is tough for a director like him to get any real buzz behind his work, though, and like Quentin Tarantino his supporters are fanatical yet miniscule in number. We've all had our chance to jump on board the Woody train - we know what we're getting into. That hasn't happened in mainstream yet and it won't suddenly happen Oscar Night.
Chances of Winning: 5/9

Moneyball (2011): Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt
It's nice that this got nominated. It's the rare mainstream biographical film that was good enough to get some critics behind it along with audiences. It's well cast and well produced, but it doesn't really have anything to push it over the edge into winning territory. It's got far more of a chance in the Adapted Screenplay category
Chances of Winning: 6/9

Hugo (2011): Graham King, Martin Scorsese
Hugo acquired some nice buzz since its release but afterwards it never really landed on its feat like it should have. It got a surprising 11 nominations but it's more likely it leaves with only a couple of sound awards. It's similar to Inception (2010) last year, a huge technical achievement by a major director, but not really enough support to earn the best prize. Still, the number of nominations indicates that the Academy was a fan, and along with The Artist (2011), it's got that nostalgia factor working pretty high. Of all the upsets, this may be the most plausible.
Chances of Winning: 7/9

The Descendants (2011): Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
It's always a treat when the Golden Globes split Best Drama and Best Comedy, along with the Screenplay Awards splitting the two-major films between Original and Adapted. The Descendants and The Artist haven't really faced off yet, so it's difficult to say who is going to get what. These two films are counter to each other though. The Descendants is fundamentally depressing, about George Clooney's life falling apart. The Artist is a much more joyful romp and I think that this difference will bog down The Descendants. It's not like nihilism is ruling the day like No Country for Old Men (2007). The buzz isn't there.
Chances of Winning: 8/9

The Artist (2011): Thomas Langmann

Here we go. This is a fairly obvious choice. Despite existing as a black and white silent film in 2012 there hasn't been any film buzzing about like this one, in part especially due to its gimmicky nature. It's looking more likely that Jean Dujardin beats George Clooney at Top Actor and this flick cleans up about everything else. This was an early pic months ago and it's impressive that word has only increased from there instead of fading. It's also a perfect self-honouring move for Hollywood to award a story and dedication to itself, especially in a time when they are threatened by so much more outside media innovation. Why download illegally - watch this film and remember a time when the movie theater was the focal point for all entertainment. It's a great example of the MPAA's shortsightedness and just about a guaranteed win.
Chances of Winning: 9/9

Oscar Zone Vol. III, Part 4: Best Director Chances

Welcome folks again to our closer look at some of the different Academy Award categories. Today we're talking about the Best Director Award, which has some good competition this year. It is quite the year for old farts, and the directors here are split between many old established voices, but the winner may be the one nominee that no one's heard of.

Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris (2011)
Although Woody seems in good shape to win for his screenwriting, it's likely that he'll come up short here. He doesn't actually have a tremendous amount of history with the Academy and there isn't a ton of buzz going into the big night. That said, his direction, while distinctive, is nothing outstanding here.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Alexander Payne for The Descendants (2011)
Payne is an accomplished director and The Descendants is likely the only film capable of giving The Artist (2011) a run for its money for Best Picture and so it would seem appropriate for him to win this as well. Still, as we're nearing the big day The Artist is picking up steam and The Descendants is falling behind. This wouldn't be a tremendous upset, but as Director Buzz goes, Payne is low on the list.
Chances of Winning: 2/5

Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life (2011)
The Tree of Life got a surprising number of nominations, although last summer it held a strong possibility of winning Best Picture. If not for its esoteric nature it may have stood a shot but it's just too impenetrable for mainstream audiences and the wider Academy. Malick's direction is capable though and has risen above A-Listers Brad Pitt and Sean Penn as the film's signature mark. Still, its erudite limitations will prevent Terry from bringing home a statue.
Chances of Winning: 3/5

Martin Scorsese for Hugo (2011)
I thought that Marty would get another win here, but now I think the tide has turned. Scorsese does a fantastic job in a genre he is unfamiliar with and as an old man uses and embraces a 3-D technology better than many who have come before. There is a chance he will upset Hazanavicius, and the Academy's love for him and Hugo are all the more apparent as film dies all round us. The Academy loves desperately clinging to the olden days and it might try to continue to do so by honouring someone who honours that.
Chances of Winning: 4/5

Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (2011)
Coming off both a DGA and a BAFTA, it seems like this is Hazanavicius' category to lose. The Artist is peaking at the perfect time and with a BAFTA sweep there's a good chance that an American sweep will come about as well. In terms of direction, The Artist is a novelty - a product of a bygone era, although it was a brief era where the Director played a role more important than the Star. Will the goofiness of The Artist pay off? By all rights it seems likely.
Chances of Winning: 5/5

Oscar Zone Vol III, Part 3: Best Screenwriting Chances

Hello once again folks to our weekly countdown to the upcoming 2012 Oscar Ceremony, Hollywood's annual self-congratulatory look at how awesome and important they are. Today we are taking a closer look at the best screenplay nominations, both original and adapted. This can be a tough category but I think this year is relatively clear cut...maybe.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Margin Call (2011): J.C. Chandor
This is a nice nomination  here but without a whole lot of buzz or anything else going for it, a win seems very unlikely, despite the competent writing. I'm not sure much else is known about this movie at all to give it more than an Mormon's chance in Baghdad to win.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi
Oh the foreign film. Why won't this win Best Screenplay? Because it's written in fucking Persian, that's why. This flick is gobbling up plenty of critical awards though, and is currently sitting on a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Still, regardless of how brilliant the writing is, I don't think it will translate here, and foreign films winning this category are exceedingly rare.
Chances of Winning: 2/5

Bridesmaids (2011): Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo
It's awesome and interesting that this flick got a nomination here and the waves that Bridesmaids has made critically, commercially, and socially are astounding. That said, even though the screenwriting category can be flexible in giving its awards out to cutting-edge comedies, The Artist is a more classic Academy-pleasing comedy in this category and Bridesmaids' nomination here is more of a novelty.
Chances of Winning: 3/5
 
The Artist (2011): Michel Hazanavicius
I said earlier that I thought this would win, but now it is looking for more like Woody will take home the Statue. Still, The Artist is shaping up to be the golden boy of the Awards and it could easily pull a mild upset and remain in control, taking this writing award as well. We'll see.
Chances of Winning: 4/5

Midnight in Paris (2011): Woody Allen
Woody hasn't really been a huge factor at the Academy Awards for a while despite turning out plenty of forgettable films. Midnight in Paris has been one of his best both critically and commercially in years and although it's not getting a strong buzz elsewhere, it has been applauded for its sharp writing. It has the perfect kind of notoriety to slide in here and grab a screenwriting award and not all that much else. It seems likely although The Artist is still poised to swoop in and do some damage.
Chances of Winning: 5/5



Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

The Ides of March (2011): George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
This film was largely ignored by the Academy, as if they have some grudge against annointing Ryan Gosling America's Dreamboat like the rest of us have. Odd, considering how in touch with Middle America the Academy is. Anyway, the Academy has ignored this kind of Clooney-based political thriller for years and it will continue to do so on February 26th.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011): Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan
May I simply copy and paste my opinion on the Academy's opinion on political thrillers? This film hasn't really caught the eye of the Academy although it received plenty of nominations it's not really heading in a winning direction in any of them. It has been a popular crowd favourite (by those into it) but can't get over the Academy hump. Chances are remote.
Chances of Winning: 2/5

Hugo (2011): John Logan
This is quite the reactionary year for the Academy. They poured oodles of love onto Hugo and The Artist, two throwback movies that seem to attempt to order a return to the earliest days of filmmaking, catering to a prestige and history that isn't really there anymore beyond a hollow facsimile. Still, these are exactly the reasons why Hugo has a shot in many of its categories, although its screenplay may be the weakest of its ridiculous 11 nominations.
Chances of Winning: 3/5

Moneyball (2011): Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin
Aaron Sorkin deserves to win this for the exact reason that he deserved his win for The Social Network (2010). He has the ability to render a complex technical topic both identifiable and engaging with sharp, crisp dialogue, which Brad Pitt makes love to almost as well as Jesse Eisenberg. The only major obstacle in his way is the fact that yes, Mr. Sorkin, we already gave you a statue for this last year. You've done the same thing, less brilliantly. Move on, bud.
Chances of Winning: 4/5

The Descendants (2011): Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
The idea of Community's Jim Rash as an Oscar Winner is very close to reality. The Descendants is the only film that's offering a serious challenge to The Artist right now and as The King's Speech (2010) and The Social Network split their respective Writing Categories last year, these parallel flicks may very well do the same, or if The Artist loses to Midnight in Paris, The Descendants should at least come up with this in a fairly weaker category.
Chances of Winning: 5/5

Oscar Zone, Vol. III, Part 2: Best Actor Chances

Norwegian Morning Wood takes careful time to analyse Oscar Nominees each year and often times we are way, wayy off. Usually the Acting Categories are fairly simple to predict, though and we run the show without incident. The past two years we have been 4/4, but the winners aren't nearly as clear-cut this time around. Nevertheless, it's time we take a look at everyone's chances, starting with the Supporting Categories:

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nick Nolte for Warrior (2011)
This is kind of an undervalued nomination. Nick Nolte hasn't really been a hot actor in...ever. His mere nomination reminds me of NBK and how much of a crazy dude this cat is. Warrior is an underseen film without a great deal of award momentum behind it although it perhaps deserves some. UFC can't replace Boxing as the prestige American Fighting Sport as much as UFC Films will not replace Boxing Films as Oscar Gold.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Jonah Hill for Moneyball (2011)
Finally, finally, the fat kid from Superbad (2007) has an Oscar Nomination. This is actually a great year for Comedians at the Oscars and Jonah's nomination here is pretty sweet in its concept, rewarding the kind of kid who is appearing in Channing Tatum comedies later on in the year. Still, there's a very remote chance he wins, although Jonah may turn towards pictures more prestigious than Accepted (2006) and Grandma's Boy (2006).
Chances of Winning: 2/5

Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn (2011)
This is actually Ken's fifth nomination although his first for Supporting Actor (previously nominated for Lead Actor, Director, Writer, and Live Action Short). My Week with Marilyn has a nice acting buzz around it, but Ken's on no one's radar this year and he'll go home empty-handed again.
Chances of Winning: 3/5

Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (2011)
This is the year of the geezer, for sure. Max von Sydow is about the only thing that's not sappy and emotionally manipulative to come out of this movie and he has enough career prestige to be in the running here. Nevertheless, he's in an awfully bad film and he's not going anywhere here.
Chances of Winning: 4/5

Christopher Plummer for Beginners (2010)

This fake poster sums up this film nicely. Chris Plummer has been chugging along as a go-to geezer for a while now and the moment is right for him to bump up to Oscar-Winning status. Supposedly Acceptance Speeches can help fuel the Academy's mind and he had a keen mixture of class and humour in his Golden Globes win. There's no reason to ignore him here in a relatively weak category this year.
Chances of Winning: 5/5



Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs (2011)
There's always that "Who?' in these kinds of categories. No one has ever heard of Janet McTeer or has a reason to vote for her. Albert Nobbs isn't the kind of great immortal movie that can bring up a more unknown performance like this. There's no good luck for Janet here.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids (2011)
Novelty performance of the year? The love Bridesmaids received this year is fantastic, and it's important for the Academy to recognize some goofy supporting roles every now and then (see also: Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder [2008]). That said, although Melissa really broke through with this role for both herself and Women in Comedy, it would be a huge shocker if the Academy handed her a Statue for pooping in a sink. The Academy has more dignity than that, unfortunately, and this is gesture for Melissa more than anything else.
Chances of Winning: 2/5

Jessica Chastain for The Help (2011)
Jessica had a really big year in 2011 and it'll culminate here. She was out-acted in her own movie by Octavia Spencer, though, and I don't see her bringing it all home this year. I'm betting on an Amy Adams / Melissa Leo kind of thing where the young, white, prettier girl goes home empty-handed. That said, barring overexposure, this won't be Jessica Chastain's last stop here.
Chances of Winning: 3/5

Bérénice Bejo for The Artist (2011)
The producers of The Artist successfully lobbied for Bérénice to get into this category and that may pay off, as it's far less competitive than the Best Leading Actress Category this year. Although The Artist is the favourite this year, with plenty of nominations everywhere, winning Acting should elude it. That said, the silent nature of The Artist requires an entirely different, antiquated skill set in emotionally expression. If the acting branch of the Academy recognizes that it may bode better for Bérénice but I don't think that will happen.
Chances of Winning: 4/5

Octavia Spencer for The Help (2011)
I don't think The Help was a good film at all but there is certainly enough precedent to help Octavia win this. The popularity of The Help in the sense that it makes audiences feel progressive because it's a film about White People patronizing Black People, is similar to the explosion of success of The Blind Side, which helped Sandra Bullock to a Statue. It's also similar to the sympathy towards blacks that pushed Mo'nique to an Oscar the same year. Whereas this is certainly not a lock like it has been last year, it's the best prediction that can be made.
Chances of Winning: 5/5


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Demián Bichir for A Better Life (2011)
There seems like an epidemic of these kinds of nominations this year. No one on earth knows who Demián Bichir is and there is little to know chance he can transition that into a glory Oscar night. In a ceremony already full of self-congratulation the competition between A-Listers in this category this year is immense.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011)
I would really like to see Gary take home his first nomination on Oscar Night. His lifetime of spectacular acting has gone largely unacknowledged and there's certainly precedent for the Academy doing so, especially with the chance to vote for him since he was deemed a longshot to be nominated. For that reason, though, his chances seem slim. Despite his track record Gary doesn't have a ton of momentum this year, nor does Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy in comparison to some of the other actors nominated here. It's a longshot, for sure.
Chances of Winning: 2/5

Brad Pitt for Moneyball (2011)
Moneyball was Brad's passion project for a while and it's great that he has some acknowledgment to that here. His character here is very typical for the more recent kind of Brad Pitt role, the fast-talking dude who persists in the wake of constant failure. Brad certainly deserves a Statue at some point, but I don't think this is going to be it, while it was a high-profile role, the next two are higher.
Chances of Winning: 3/5

Jean Dujardin for The Artist (2011)
I'll treat Jean the same as Bérénice. It takes a lot of talent to act as well as these two did without sound. If the Academy can recognize that then Jean will grab Oscar. The Frenchman has the kind of classical good looks to nab the votes, if only he wasn't going against the most classical good looking actor ever.
Chances of Winning: 4/5

George Clooney for The Descendants (2011)

The Descendants has been George's best role in years, and that's with years of great roles. As the winner of the Best Dramatic Actor Golden Globe he's going against the winner of the Best Comedic Actor, Jean Dujardin. I've got to believe that Clooney has more of a history with the Academy and they'll lovingly vote up one of their own who is so entrenched as a poster boy for the Hollywood System. Although he's the classic kind of winner it's tough to cheer against him. Especially when he smiles.
Chances of Winning: 5/5


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs (2011)
Glenn Close really creeps me out here. She makes for a very bad looking man. I really am pretty freaked out just looking at that thing. For that and probably plenty of other reasons, Glenn won't bring home an Oscar this year, although the fact that she stands the least chance of winning says something about how tough this category is this year.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011)
Personally I believe this to be one of the greatest pieces of acting I've seen in years. It hasn't captured attention like it should have though, whether that be for the tough to digest subject material, the low profile of Rooney Mara, or a lack of general award buzz around The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Rooney was a longshot to make it into the final five here and the remaining three nominees are primed to duke it out pretty well.
Chances of Winning: 2/5

Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn (2011)
This is the kind of performance tailor-made for Oscar. Generally the Academy loves biographic tales like this and biographies of someone like Marilyn Monroe, pulled off as well as Michelle pulled it off and in this specific style should attract plenty of attention. She's the kind of young actress that the Academy has also loved awarding before and she has some good history with nominations. She somehow won a Golden Globe for this, as Seth Rogen put it, hilarious comedy and could very well make the push here.
Chances of Winning: 3/5

Viola Davis for The Help (2011)
Right now Viola and Meryl are in a virtual tie for winning this category, with Viola slightly ahead. I don't think that this performance was as iconic or captivating as Meryl's though, and if Octavia wins for Supporting Actress I've got think Viola also winning would be black chick winning overload. Hollywood isn't that progressive, after all. Then again, if voters are inclined towards Octavia, the support may be out there, although the Supporting Category is far less competitive.
Chances of Winning: 4/5

Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady (2011)
Meryl by far has the history with the Academy all set, and she turns into Margaret Thatcher with such ease that it's tough not to recognize her. What hurts her is how shitty The Iron Lady is and how there hasn't been a tremendous buzz or exceptionality to her performance. Again, it will come down to her or Viola most likely, and it's almost a virtual toss-up right now. I'll give Meryl the advantage due to her history with the Academy and for her already edging out Viola for the Golden Globe.
Chances of Winning: 5/5

Oscar Zone Vol. III; Part 1: Nominations and Predictions

Well folks, here we are again, an exciting time of the year to break away from the drull January Season, the Oscar Nominations were officially released today and here are our first thoughts. Now, in the next month we'll give these first thoughts some careful analysis as the races ebb and flow. Some of our early guesses last year were wayyy off but we could have seen some winners yet from a week out or so. That said, it's a skill to guess it all from the beginning, so here we are.

Now, we have a very particular system for this thing around here. Politics and lobbying in Hollywood is a complex game and the most worthy nominees seldom actually bring home some gold. For that reason we highlight in RED the nominees we think deserve to win, in BLUE those that will win and naturally, when these choices actually do align, it's in a lovely shade of PURPLE. Let's get at it:

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The Artist (2011): Thomas Langmann

The Descendants (2011): Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011): Scott Rudin
The Help (2011): Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan
Hugo (2011): Graham King, Martin Scorsese
Midnight in Paris (2011): Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
Moneyball (2011): Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt
The Tree of Life (2011): Nominees to be determined
War Horse (2011): Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy

I thought both Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011) and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) were better than anything on this list. That said, The Artist is charming its way through Southern California right now and seems hellbent on grabbing Oscar, if only for pulling off what it does for the sheer novelty of it. The Descendants would be a quirkier win and its kind don't usually get the big prize. If both of these films get enough votes to cancel each other out though (and the gimmicks of The Artist proves too great), something like Hugo could step in and snatch it.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Demián Bichir for A Better Life (2011)

George Clooney for The Descendants (2011)

Jean Dujardin for The Artist (2011)

Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)

Brad Pitt for Moneyball (2011)

After a surprise snub of Michael Fassbender in Shame (2011), the Best Actor race isn't nearly as clear-cut as it has been recently. This is unbelievably Gary Oldman's lifetime first Oscar Nomination and I'm half-tempted to say that the Academy uses this opportunity to honour his work, similar to Jeff Bridges, John Wayne, Al Pacino and so on, who won awards for far less than their best work. This was not the case with Mickey Rourke a few years ago, however when the Academy turned instead to familiarity, honouring Sean Penn instead. I'm thinking something similar happens here, and this IS one of George's lifetime best roles, so I'm thinking he snatches it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs (2011)
Viola Davis for The Help (2011)

Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011)

Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady (2011)

Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn (2011)

This is an extremely competitive category this year. Truly, the women outshined the men in 2011. That said, no one committed more to a role than Rooney Mara did, although Meryl Streep shines more by being outstanding in an otherwise all-around terrible film. It is a big snub to Tilda Swinton, though, who carries a much better film as well or better than Meryl did.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn (2011)
Jonah Hill for Moneyball (2011)
Nick Nolte for Warrior (2011)

Christopher Plummer for Beginners (2010)

Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)

It's cool to see some Old Farts in this category (and...Jonah Hill), as well as nominations for people who didn't play intense villains. That said, there is also no clear-cut runaway winner here right now. Christopher Plummer has had an excellent late career as of late, and if people can distinguish between him and Max von Sydow he should get the win. People are whining that Albert Brooks didn't get nominated for Drive, and I would say that's more a novelty move anyway, at least until I saw Melissa McCarthy nominated for Bridesmaids.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Bérénice Bejo for The Artist (2011)

Jessica Chastain for The Help (2011)
Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids (2011)
Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs (2011)

Octavia Spencer for The Help (2011)

The Academy has loved giving this award to Black Chicks recently, so I'm almost cautious to think that this will be that easy to predict. The forces behind The Artist lobbied hard to get Bérénice Bejo in this category and away from the heavy competition in the Leading Actress category, and I think that may pay off. That said, Octavia is cresting hard right now as the likely winner. Can we also mention Melissa McCarthy? Great to see one of the best characters of the year recognized like that. And no love for that chick from The Secret Life of the American Teenager who was in The Descendants? Ouch.

Best Achievement in Directing

Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris (2011)
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (2011)
Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life (2011)
Alexander Payne for The Descendants (2011)

Martin Scorsese for Hugo (2011)

Scorsese is recognized again here. Hugo is such a competently and wonderfully directed film in a genre that Marty has never really attempted before. He pulls off the 3-D Children's action / nostalgia flick so well that I don't think there's any way around his winning.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

The Artist (2011): Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids (2011): Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo
Margin Call (2011): J.C. Chandor
Midnight in Paris (2011): Woody Allen
A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi

I don't see Bridesmaids being a real contender anywhere, although it's sweet that Kristen Wiig can add "Oscar-Nominated" to her resume the same way Matt Damon and Ben Affleck can write "Oscar-Winner" somehow. I don't think any other movie has the momentum behind it besides The Artist, which pulls off an emotional, entertaining story with very few actual words - quite the achievement (although, really isn't that what we started with in film?). Then again, many believe that this is Woody's category to lose. I think he loses.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

The Descendants (2011): Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash

Hugo (2011): John Logan
The Ides of March (2011): George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
Moneyball (2011): Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011): Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan

Dean Pelton, Oscar-Winning Screenwriter? The Descendants does have enough good momentum to nab this. I don't see Moneyball seriously contending anywhere, although the dialogue is crisp enough and works well to turn a very difficult subject into entertainment. Good Will Hunting (1997), arguably Juno (2007), and The Social Network (2010) won for doing the same thing. Now I'm wondering how I made my second Matt Damon reference of this post and also if I should change my vote...

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

A Cat in Paris (2010): Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli
Chico & Rita (2010): Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal
Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011): Jennifer Yuh
Puss in Boots (2011): Chris Miller

Rango (2011): Gore Verbinski

Luckiest nomination of the year certainly goes to Rango. I thought this was one of the best films of the year and somehow it landed in a category with Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots instead of Cars 2 (2011) and The Adventures of Tintin (2011). Both of those pics are prestigious enough to grab a ton of votes and in their absence I have to believe Rango ends up pooling it all.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Bullhead (2011): Michael R. Roskam (Belgium)
Footnote (2011): Joseph Cedar (Israel)
In Darkness (2011): Agnieszka Holland (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (2011): Philippe Falardeau (Canada)

A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi (Iran)

Believe it or not this is one of the easier categories to pick. A Separation has been making plenty of waves over here and is probably the one surefire lock I'll give. This thing should be nominated for Best Picture and will walk all over this category.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

The Artist (2011): Guillaume Schiffman

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Jeff Cronenweth

Hugo (2011): Robert Richardson

The Tree of Life (2011): Emmanuel Lubezki
War Horse (2011): Janusz Kaminski

This is a tough category. It would be easy for The Artist to run away with this if it starts sweeping, but the Cinematography itself isn't that innovative. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo's cinematography really stood out as an element that made that a better film, but I'm not thinking it gets a lot of love here. That leaves the breathtaking, 3-D work of Hugo, an Academy-Friendly Recognition, but this is really a toss-up.

Best Achievement in Editing

The Artist (2011): Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius

The Descendants (2011): Kevin Tent

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter

Hugo (2011): Thelma Schoonmaker
Moneyball (2011): Christopher Tellefsen

I'm treating this the same way as Cinematography. The editing in particular stands out with The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo but I'm not convinced it will win. The Artist is the safe bet right now but this could go a few ways.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

The Artist (2011): Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan

Hugo (2011): Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo

Midnight in Paris (2011): Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil
War Horse (2011): Rick Carter, Lee Sandales

I fail to see the Art Direction needed in The Artist. I can see this going either Hugo or Midnight in Paris' way, but as you can tell, I'm leaning more towards this being Marty's night rather than Woody's.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Anonymous (2011): Lisy Christl

The Artist (2011): Mark Bridges
Hugo (2011): Sandy Powell

Jane Eyre (2011): Michael O'Connor

W.E. (2011): Arianne Phillips

Costume Design tends to go to weird films that don't have much else going for them, and as such I rarely predict the right winners here. Why can't Madonna's film be an Academy-Award winner? There are plenty of reasons. Let's go Jane Eyre with a snub of Anonymous.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Albert Nobbs (2011): Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin

The Iron Lady (2011): Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland

This is certainly Mark and Roy's category to lose. They did a fantastic job recreating some of the historical people in The Iron Lady, and by historical I mean like only thirty years ago. It's flawless. Leading heavy in the race right now.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

The Adventures of Tintin (2011): John Williams

The Artist (2011): Ludovic Bource

Hugo (2011): Howard Shore
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011): Alberto Iglesias
War Horse (2011): John Williams

There isn't a runaway outstanding track like Trent Reznor's The Social Network last year (although his The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo deserves it). The Artist carries a lot of its back on its Score, SOUNDS good here hyuck hyuck.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

The Muppets (2011): Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet")

Rio (2011): Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett ("Real in Rio")

Is this a serious category? The Muppets only needs to beat Rio? This just turned into my lock of the night. For the record, this is why this happened.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson
Hugo (2011): Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
Moneyball (2011): Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin

War Horse (2011): Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson

I never really know where this is going, but I have always thought that the sound of all the Transformers films is underrated. Sound is so essential to those fast flicks, it provides a cue for the action far superior to visual stimuli. I honestly think that Dark of the Moon deserves it here. I mean, those foley artists had to come up with all kinds of weird Alien Technology sounds. That's tough, man.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Drive (2011): Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Ren Klyce
Hugo (2011): Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
War Horse (2011): Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom

This has Drive's name all over it. Without any other nominations and plenty of support I imagine this locks it up. It also does excel in careful editing and sound plays a huge effect on mood here.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects


Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson
Hugo (2011): Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning
Real Steel (2011): Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg

Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011): Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier

This seems like a no-brainer. The Academy finally has a chance to give a good movie this award instead of a mindless blockbuster, although that means that the Transformers Trilogy will have no Visual Effects award to show for their three films, which is unfortunate. The robots in Transformers look incredible and the integration of them into reality has been seamless throughout each installment, peaking with Dark of the Moon. It won't happen though.

Best Documentary, Features

Hell and Back Again (2011): Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front (2011): Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (2011): Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky

Pina (2011): Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel

Undefeated (2011): Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas

Apparently the big doc this year was Project Nim (2011), and that was a big snub. It's tough to say with these nominees, none really stand out as exceptional (read: I've heard of them). Based on titles...Pina?

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement (2011): Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin
God Is the Bigger Elvis (2011): Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson

Incident in New Baghdad (2011): James Spione

Saving Face (2011): Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (2011): Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen

The most brutal category. Let's move on.

Best Short Film, Animated

Dimanche (2011): Patrick Doyon
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (2011): William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg

La Luna (2011): Enrico Casarosa

A Morning Stroll (2011): Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe
Wild Life (2011): Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby

It's fairly safe to go with Pixar here, even though it hasn't yet been attached to a theatrical film (we'll see it next year before Brave [2012]). Considering this is their only category this year I want to lock it up.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Pentecost (2011): Peter McDonald

Raju (2011): Max Zähle, Stefan Gieren

The Shore (2011): Terry George, Oorlagh George

Time Freak (2011): Andrew Bowler, Gigi Causey

Tuba Atlantic (2010): Hallvar Witzø

We're down to just going by titles at this point, folks.

Well that's it. We'll see how terrible I do this year, and it's very possible my predictions shift as some films gain speed, others lose speed, although there isn't a race as heated as The Social Network / The King's Speech (2010) was last year. There are quite a handful of interesting acting races however, and I expect to be wrong about Viola Davis. We'll find out February 26!