12 March 2024

OSCAR Prediction Results - not that bad!

Another Oscar season has now passed and obviously I did pretty well when I stopped really paying attention to anything. It was in general a ceremony that didn't fill me with rage, either! There wasn't really a single win that's upsetting, but I don't know if I'd take no wins for Maestro for no wins for Killers of the Flower Moon. Let's get into everything:

Best Picture

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer


Got it! Now this was the easiest call in recent memory. There were some close calls, but looking back, none really seem like they could have been a credible threat.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Gladstone

Actual Winner: Stone


Hey, this was our toss-up and I failed it. I wouldn't have gone for the double young white girl winner over what could have been a great moment for American Indian actors, but oh well. To be fair, Stone knocks this out of the park, probably better than Lily, and it was way better than La La Land (2016).

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Predicted Winner: Murphy

Actual Winner: Murphy


I was so close to picking Giamatti, but I'm glad I went with my guy for Cillian. Well deserved, phenomenal work, no gripes here.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Predicted Winner: Randolph

Actual Winner: Randolph


I don't know what this role is even about but a clear cut predicted winner. Easy.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: RDJ

Actual Winner: RDJ


I don't think Gosling was ever a real contender. This is a great win for Robert Downey, Jr. What a career, what a turn around for this guy.

Best Director

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Nolan

Actual Winner: Nolan


Finally, Academy Award winning director Chris Nolan. Righteous. The best is still to come!

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Actual Winner: Anatomy of a Fall


This turned out to be easy, even if I was skeptical that this could actually pull it off. But it ended up being the heavy favorite. I have no real issues, glad to get the nod.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: American Fiction

Actual Winner: American Fiction


BAM! I never get these right. This just really felt like an American Fiction category, but I'm always wrong about that stuff, so this is great.

Best Cinematography

El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Killers of the Flower Moon

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer


So Oppenheimer ended up just crushing everything, I really wasn't thinking Flower Moon would walk away with nothing, but that's that, I guess. It was a really clear sweep instead of any even distribution. I hedged my bets a bit because it's rare that the favorite actually does win everything, but hey - it did!

Best Original Score

American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer


I mean, thanks Oppenheimer for making it generally easy. I through it out for Cinematography but thought it would get the score still, and I nailed that one.

Best Original Song

"The Fire Inside," Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)," Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie

Winner: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie

Actual Winner: The other song from Barbie


Alright, whatever. I shouldn't have missed this open lay-up. Bonehead, but c'mon, even the performance at the ceremony was mind-blowing. Why are we going with the sappier ballad? I know, I know, we all knew what they'd choose. I suck.

Best Editing

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer


Got 'em.

Best Production Design

Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Barbie

Actual Winner: Poor Things


Poor Things had a very good night and while this is deserved, I still think Barbie should have had the edge, but ultimately despite a lot of fanfare throughout the night, Barbie didn't really pull down that many accolades. Poor Things did and it was an easy clean up here. I don't think I would have ever picked this, so oh well.

Best Costume Design

Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Actual Winner: Poor Things


I nailed this one, it was in the right zone of period piece, but also really weird and distinctive.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Actual Winner: Poor Things


So I had mentioned Poor Things as being the most deserving, and I can't believe it actually pulled this off. I didn't think it'd get past Maestro or Oppenheimer. Poor Things is so bizarre because it calls so much attention to its artificiality and not to mention that it is so damn deeply, deeply weird. Oscars are going for these boffo pics lately, which is amazing.

Best Sound

The Creator
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest


I would have definitely never picked this one. Like how? I mean, I know it's good but amazing that Oppie dropped this one of all categories, and to a really small scale film. It's all really cool and great for cinema but just surprising as hell. This always goes to war or action films.

Best Visual Effects

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Winner: Godzilla Minus One

Actual Winner: Godzilla Minus One


Yay! Such a good win. Good for Godzilla, great for action figures. I love it.

Best International Feature

Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Precited Winner: The Zone of Interest

Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest

Another very easy one, simple win.

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: The Boy and the Heron

Actual Winner: The Boy and the Heron


I literally fist-pumped. Not that I didn't like AtSV, I adored that film, but it never felt as real of a contender as the Heron. I'm just happy I got a rogue pick for once.

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Predicted Winner: John and Yoko

Actual Winner: John and Yoko


Yeah, I guess. Can't believe I actually won this. When you get the shorts, it just seals it as a good year.

Best Live-Action Short

The After
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Predicted Winner: Sugar

Actual Winner: Sugar


Thank you Wes Anderson for definitely guaranteeing an easy Oscar prediction in a category that is usually stupid as hell.

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Predicted Winner: Mariupol

Actual Winner: Mariupol


Again, easy one. I'm happy with it!

Best Documentary Short

The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Winner: Book Burning

Actual Winner: Repair Shop


Ok, whatever.

Anyway, 16/23 is the most I've ever gotten in the modern, 23-category era, and ties my second highest best years ever. And I should have probably gotten 17 with the right Barbie song. I maybe could have picked Poor Things for make-up and hairstyling I wasn't a bitter, jaded guy who was convinced I'd lose, but I don't think I would have changed anything else. I'm happy with the haul, so let's update the annual records:

First, our annual records:

2024: 16/23
2023: 11/23
2022: 12/23
2021: 12/23
2020: 13/24 
2019: 13/24 
2018: 16/24 
2017: 13/24 
2016: 14/24 
2015: 13/24 
2014: 20/24 
2013: 14/24 
2012: 16/24 
2011: 14/24 
2010: 12/24 

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