Summer Brack 2024 Mid-Summer Brack Catch-up

We are knee deep in cicadas and summer sunshine now, folks, and as with any great American Independence Day Weekend it's time to check in on the vibes and rhythms that have kept our hearts pumping and our feet chattering this great season.

To be honest, hardly anything had changed in the past month, and I feel like we have a decent tie for the Top Three Songs of Summer so far. There are a couple other things coming in and our as they always do, but I'm curious what ends up having the legs to keep surging. Let's do this:

Chappel Roan / Billie Eilish

Each of a ton of songs out right now. I haven't heard any of them playing often and when I check them out I have no recognition nor desire to listen to them further. This is why this column is being dropped, people. I have just peaked and entered the long depressive valley of adulthood.

"Lithonia" by Childish Gambino

I don't know what's going on with this guy, but he has a movie, Bando Calrissian and some songs to go along with it. I like it, it's weird, rock-ish, and very determined. Not popular at all, not jammable, and not played any where. Hot jam of the week! Sounds like bad Sum 41 but soulfull.

"Million Dollar Baby" by Tommy Richman

Popular but I'm in the dark. The beat is okay.

"I Had Some Help" by Morgan Wallen and Post Malone

I have never heard this song before until I clicked it to write this article because it's charting. I can't make rhyme nor reason of our lives anymore. Whatever. This ain't my bag and doesn't feel like that much of a summer earworm, either.

"Houdini" by Eminem

I mean, this such a blatant attempt at vintage Eminem, and it's not very good or catchy in any way. Em is attaching himself to the anti-woke mob like he tried to position himself as an anti-Bush leader in the mid-2000s. I mean, fine, whatever, we can see it but no one really cares, Marshall. This is not that fun.

"Expresso" by Sabrina Carpenter

I actually really like this, it's just the ultimate no brain song. Industry plant of summer? I haven't heard "Please Please Please" on the radio at all but it's doing well on charts. I still hear like, "Feather" and shit. I think we need a whole other category for Midwestern radio hits.

"Not Like Us" by Kendrick

I caught all up on the Drake Beef stuff, and man it is so much stupider than I thought. The origin, to my understanding, is J. Cole saying him, Drake, and Kendrick were the Big Three, and Kendrick was just like, "Nah, I'm the best one." And there you have it. I mean, he's right, Kendrick vs. Drake is like Chappelle Show Wayne Brady against actual Wayne Brady. No one who starred in Degrassi can claim any kind of street cred. Stay in your lane, Drake, I liked "HYFR." This might be the most popular diss track of all time, and that's got to sting. Jeez the lyrics are all about Drake being a pedophile, though, it's nuts. I really love how Kendrick just played this five straight times in a row at his Juneteenth show. It's an unabashed and hitherto unforeseen level of pettiness which is great. Kendrick Lamar is the Reverse Flash of hip-hop but I'm on board.

"A Bar Song" by Shaboozey

This is really the only song that hits all three boxes for me. Played on the radio, played on Spotify, and I actually like it. It might be the Song of Summer but it needs to go on a little bit more to really earn its keep. I talked about earworms earlier, this is the only song I've really heard all year that sticks in my head. See, I like sort of country songs.

Midwestern Radio Hits

I don't know man, this is like, what I hear when I drive around. I really don't know how to even interpret the world any more. None of these are anywhere near the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50. They just kind of exist under some long outdated model? Here we go!

"obsessed" by Olivia Rodrigo

I hear this all the time. It's not even one of her bigger hits from her last album but our radio loves it.

"End of Beginning" by Djo

"Agora Hills" by Doja Cat

I hear this all the time. Is it even a single of any kind? I dunno, it's been on the airwaves forever.

"You Broke Me First" by Tate McRae

I think some of these I have heard, like Benson Broome or whatever. Like, definite non-descript background noise.

Spider-Man 2: Twenty Years of Mayhem and Mirth

 It was a few days ago now, but for the twentieth anniversary of Spider-Man 2 I rewatched Sam Raimi's best superhero movie with one big question in mind - does it hold up? Is it still what I'd widely acknowledge as the greatest Spider-Man movie as well as the greatest superhero movie ever?

Yeah, it does.

So let's get into that, because damn this thing really does hold up. Like all the truly great films, it's because of a variety of things and they all come together in brilliant web-laced synergy. There is great action, compelling characters, sincere drama, and significant stakes that all come together with humor and cheekiness that you'd expect.

This, Lord of the Rings, Pirates, and the Matrix dominated early 2000s. What strikes me now is how deeply bizarre and auteuristic all these movies were. The 2000s were this time when corporations became punk (this should read: exploited punk and alt aesthetics for mainstream profit), and you see this a bit in movies. There was this great trust planted in fucking Sam Raimi, Peter Jackson, and the Wachowski siblings, all bizarre directors outside the mainstream who churned out really distinctive works to critical and commercial acclaim. It's just the direct opposite of what we see now. It's weird, the great irony is that as stakes get higher for studios they take less risks on auteur directors, which leads to more crap movies that don't offer that return on investment. There are obvious exceptions like Taika Waititi and James Gunn, both of whom I think have run their course for their own separate reasons.

Oh yeah, Spider-Man.

We got this a bit with Multiverse of Madness (2022), but there is so many distinctive Raimi zooms, angles, earnestness, and moments of pure horror in this. It brings such energy and zing to everything going on here. And it's not like the lighting or shot selection is very distinctive, it's lit naturally and for the most part the camera is steady with typical mid-level shots. But it's the zooms, wipes. Check out this seven seconds:

This is like, what I think of most. Robbie Robertson, played by Bill Nunn is just hanging out, he has no development at all, but you can still understand his relationship with J. Jonah Jameson as a respected dissenter and someone who defends Peter and Spider-Man. But man, that cut when Jonah waves his hand and Hoffman (Ted Raimi!) pops in is great. Hoffman is invented for the film and crowds a crowded room, but his sycophantic quisling contrasts Robbie's dissent and it adds so much color to a frenetic scene that's supposed to feel urgent and desperate.

Spider-Man 2 cuts the fat. It adds characters but doesn't become bloated both because it moves so fast and because the characters are distinctive and have purpose. They're stock but memorable. It all just works. That's a hard line to walk. I also noticed for the first time that Mr. Aziz runs Joe's Pizza. Joe Aziz! Pizza time.

There's a lot more going on here. Elizabeth Banks in an early role. So is Joel McHale! Donnell Rawlings and Hal Sparks showing up make this the most 2004 movie ever. And after a long legacy of being an art freak weirdo, Oscar nominee, stoner comedy star, and sexual abuser, James Franco popping up here is like "Oh yeah...James Franco..." I've always thought he was terrible in this. "Noble Prize, Otto, Noble Prize!" It's so rough. Part of that is an awkward script, but he really seems like he doesn't want to be here. He's here because he was in the last one and they're setting him up for the next one. Harry does drive the plot a bit, and having your best friend hate you adds tension to Peter, making him more alone, so that's something.

Let's talk comic book logic, which I really appreciate in our current Wikipedia, lore-driven age of over-explanation. So, Doc Ock robs a bank to get money to rebuild his machine, and I feel like this scene moves so fast that we tend to skip over it. He's successful in that bank robbery, and then he just acquires the parts to build his machine. Off what, eBay? Like, I guess he just kept the phone numbers of the companies he ordered parts from? Same with Spider-Man's suit, it is so damn high quality to just be ordered by some random poor pizza delivery boy / grad student. But who cares, move past it, move past it. They straight up acknowledge Dr. Strange exists in this universe, I've always thought maybe there's something bigger out there. But it feels like such a comic book, no one even thinks having four metal arms is that weird.

And fuckin A, how the hell is inventing indestructible metal arms with advanced AI that has a spinal-neural interface a side note to the fusion generator? Like, did he also just casually invent these arms? How could he be working on his reactor and think, "What is the best way to control occasional flares and handle the tritium? Probably four giant metal arms with advanced AI in 2004. And this is not a nitpick, because I don't think its a bad thing at all, it's just part of this movie saying, "Listen, this a comic book, it's pulp, it's stupid, just move on, move on, go with it." At the time I didn't realize how much I took that ethos for granted.

I also think this stuff only works in part because the drama is so real and sincere. This is a pivotal scene for everyone, Ock and Franco sure, but also Peter (How was Michael Keaton's Vulture the only one to figure out that Peter Parker is definitely Spider-Man because he always shows up where Peter is, btw), who loses yet another potential father figure, and possibly the only good thing in his life, his paper on Otto Octavius which could save his grades. It's just blow after blow for this guy.

It eschews the tropes of the genre, eliminating any kind of power fantasy but thoroughly demonstrating how much being Spider-Man absolutely sucks. The whole deal is why be Spider-Man? And the answer is entirely because of the great power and great responsibility deal. It's still a good lesson to learn. Why be good at all when everything in the world is conspiring against you? Because it's your duty, period. That's a tough lesson. Peter Parker feels like Job in this, just brutalized through and through.

There's this psychological deep dive, though. Peter doubts himself and is overladen with stress, and that starts to affect his powers. I always though, like, just test if you can climb a wall, don't jump off a building, Peter. But I know they had to do that back joke after Tobey injured himself for real. Having powers becomes the central conflict of the film.

And he really shouldn't worry about Mary Jane being in danger if she learns his secret identity or if they shack up together. She gets kidnapped plenty of times already. Also these movies do feel thinner when you put it together that the same basic plot of Mary Jane being kidnapped by a villain created by a science experiment gone awry. I mean, play the hits, why not. I think we've progressed beyond, or at least been made aware of, both the damsel in distress and woman in fridge tropes (Spider-Man 2 does both, although I'd argue that Otto losing Rosie isn't as big a motivator for him than just becoming an evil cartoonish supervillain. I think it moreso just shreds his connection to humanity, poetry, right-brained stuff. And just don't have an English professor be your self-sustaining fusion generator lab tech).

On the topic of the movie's climax, that whole famous train sequence exists story-wise solely to exhaust Spider-Man and make him an easier catch, which I'm actually not sure I've ever seen in a movie before. It's kind of an evolution of the Green Goblin's choice, fight me or save people. Spider-Man obviously always saves people, but Ock uses this to his advantage. He also gets super murdery as soon as the arms take over. Who cares, he's the bad guy, he does bad guy stuff. I don't think he ever actually kills anyone. But the threat he makes to peel the flesh from MJ's bones seems really credible.

But it's also a very New York-scale event. I like keeping Spider-Man in the "save the city" realm. It keeps him very ground level, like a Daredevil or Punisher, even though his power set always feels like it should be world-saving A-tier. I think the two most recent Tom Holland Spider-Man films stretched him that far, but Homecoming (2017) keeps him pretty limited. It's right there in the Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man title, it helps because he is just a guy who needs to make it to class, catch a show, and deliver pizzas. Like, he can't be galivanting all over the world. It's because he is just a random dude who this responsibility was thrust upon. It's not his job to be a superhero, he didn't choose it, but he does it anyway, and that's really the entire point of Spider-Man.

You know what else gets that right? The Miles Morales Spider-Verse Spider-Man but we all know those are perfect movies anyway.

Maybe we'll talk leads. Molina is amazing, Tobey is always a better Peter Parker than he is a Spider-Man, he's just not that quick witted, funny, or scathing. To be honest, no live action Spider-Man has been able to nail how funny he is. Maybe because it really really contradicts with how shy and nerdy Peter is, but that's all part of the act. Or like, psychosis. He's an inverse Batman.

I really like Kirsten Dunst and where she's gone in the past twenty years, but she's sleep walking through this role, dude. Right here she really doesn't look like she knows what's going on: 

I mean, I love this shit. It's so weird. Such a bizarre take to leave in. It gives the film a lot of energy, a cutting as they go kind of feel. I don't know why that doesn't make it bad. I think it's just vibes. It soars on vibes. I'd call "Raindrops Pouring on My Head" ironic, but they kind of play it straight here.

The whole movie is so earnest, shockingly so. It frees itself from the superhero origin stuff and is able to just launch you straight into everything. I mean, the moral is that you need to be heroic for heroic's sake for goodness' sake. Pace wise it's unnervingly efficient. It's really about an hour and forty of real stuff before denouement and credits. Unreal. Mostly because it's just focusing on one guy and one situation. This might inevitably bleed into why Spider-Man 3 (2007) doesn't work, but I also actually think that follows one concept. Spider-Man 2 is what happens when everything goes wrong for Peter while 3 is what happens when everything goes right. Somehow the latter is far worse, and that's what makes it a challenging Spider-Man story.

So, this is great, it's thrilling, funny, distinctive, compelling, has a great arc, stakes, and is a really great Spider-Man story. It holds up, it's still the best, I'll take any challengers.

Summer Jam 2023 SUMMER IS BRACK BRABY!

It's time again that I was compelled to create a brand new Summer Jam List! I mean, as you can tell, this blog has fallen on rough times. I blame the birth of my son, the cause of all my problems.

Actually, it's moreso that life is made up of much more than my thoughts on why The Fall Guy (2023) faltered. Hrmmm...maybe we should bring back Road to a Blockbuster...

Anyway, I'm diggin some tunes lately, so we gotta list them here!

"Espresso" by Sabrina Carpenter

I'm realizing I've had "Feather" in my head for weeks, but "Espresso" the Ostrich is definitely the hotter jam. It just hasn't hit my hometown of Middle America yet. Sabrina Carpenter is fine, she's got a good time, some spicy attitude, definitely feels like an industry plant, but hey, Olivia Rodrigo proved me wrong. There's a sameness to all her songs but they're ethereal and catchy enough.

"Not Like Us" by Kendrick Lamar

This song didn't blow my mind at first, but the more I listen to it, the more it simultaneously feels like Kendrick's most mainstream, attention-grabbing song, but also very removed and isolated like his work tends to be. I don't know anything about the Drake Beef or whatever, I dunno, Drake is like the softest cat in the game, who cares. It's like beefing with an actual piece of beef. Not much on the radio yet, but that's not even a thing anymore.

"A Bar Song" by Shaboozey

I've been obsessed with this one. I can't remember a song working its way so into my brain since...well, "Old Town Road" for lack of a better Black Country Comparison. The video is captivating, too. I don't know what it is, I think it's partially the off-center framing, the escalation of dance moves corresponding to the rhythm, and the juxtaposition of these white good ol' boys in the background who are simultaneously very modern with this black guy singing country to a hip hop beat and partially remixing J-Kwon's 2004 "Tipsy" which I don't think anyone except people my age remember.

Others

Yeah, let's bust up that 16-year old eight a week formula. I just don't actually care about any other song. There's like, a lot of Billie Eilish that's the same depressed shit, Taylor which is good for Taylor, Beyonce's Country Album, which is about exactly as good as Snoop Dogg's reggae album (I actually do like that...sort of), some Morgan Wallen, Post Malone, Hozier which blows. "Million Dollar Baby" is a strong number two and I just need to be exposed to that more or something, it's not hooking me.

That's it. We'll be back next month. Maybe. Go on with your lives! Happy start of the Seventeen-Week Summer Season!

OSCAR Prediction Results - not that bad!

Another Oscar season has now passed and obviously I did pretty well when I stopped really paying attention to anything. It was in general a ceremony that didn't fill me with rage, either! There wasn't really a single win that's upsetting, but I don't know if I'd take no wins for Maestro for no wins for Killers of the Flower Moon. Let's get into everything:

Best Picture

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

1/1

Got it! Now this was the easiest call in recent memory. There were some close calls, but looking back, none really seem like they could have been a credible threat.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Gladstone

Actual Winner: Stone

1/2

Hey, this was our toss-up and I failed it. I wouldn't have gone for the double young white girl winner over what could have been a great moment for American Indian actors, but oh well. To be fair, Stone knocks this out of the park, probably better than Lily, and it was way better than La La Land (2016).

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Predicted Winner: Murphy

Actual Winner: Murphy

2/3

I was so close to picking Giamatti, but I'm glad I went with my guy for Cillian. Well deserved, phenomenal work, no gripes here.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Predicted Winner: Randolph

Actual Winner: Randolph

3/4

I don't know what this role is even about but a clear cut predicted winner. Easy.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: RDJ

Actual Winner: RDJ

4/5

I don't think Gosling was ever a real contender. This is a great win for Robert Downey, Jr. What a career, what a turn around for this guy.

Best Director

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Nolan

Actual Winner: Nolan

5/6

Finally, Academy Award winning director Chris Nolan. Righteous. The best is still to come!

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Actual Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

6/7

This turned out to be easy, even if I was skeptical that this could actually pull it off. But it ended up being the heavy favorite. I have no real issues, glad to get the nod.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: American Fiction

Actual Winner: American Fiction

7/8

BAM! I never get these right. This just really felt like an American Fiction category, but I'm always wrong about that stuff, so this is great.

Best Cinematography

El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Killers of the Flower Moon

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

7/9

So Oppenheimer ended up just crushing everything, I really wasn't thinking Flower Moon would walk away with nothing, but that's that, I guess. It was a really clear sweep instead of any even distribution. I hedged my bets a bit because it's rare that the favorite actually does win everything, but hey - it did!

Best Original Score

American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

8/10

I mean, thanks Oppenheimer for making it generally easy. I through it out for Cinematography but thought it would get the score still, and I nailed that one.

Best Original Song

"The Fire Inside," Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)," Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie

Winner: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie

Actual Winner: The other song from Barbie

8/11

Alright, whatever. I shouldn't have missed this open lay-up. Bonehead, but c'mon, even the performance at the ceremony was mind-blowing. Why are we going with the sappier ballad? I know, I know, we all knew what they'd choose. I suck.

Best Editing

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

9/12

Got 'em.

Best Production Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Barbie

Actual Winner: Poor Things

9/13

Poor Things had a very good night and while this is deserved, I still think Barbie should have had the edge, but ultimately despite a lot of fanfare throughout the night, Barbie didn't really pull down that many accolades. Poor Things did and it was an easy clean up here. I don't think I would have ever picked this, so oh well.

Best Costume Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Actual Winner: Poor Things

10/14

I nailed this one, it was in the right zone of period piece, but also really weird and distinctive.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Actual Winner: Poor Things

10/15

So I had mentioned Poor Things as being the most deserving, and I can't believe it actually pulled this off. I didn't think it'd get past Maestro or Oppenheimer. Poor Things is so bizarre because it calls so much attention to its artificiality and not to mention that it is so damn deeply, deeply weird. Oscars are going for these boffo pics lately, which is amazing.

Best Sound

The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest

10/16

I would have definitely never picked this one. Like how? I mean, I know it's good but amazing that Oppie dropped this one of all categories, and to a really small scale film. It's all really cool and great for cinema but just surprising as hell. This always goes to war or action films.

Best Visual Effects

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

Predicted Winner: Godzilla Minus One

Actual Winner: Godzilla Minus One

11/17

Yay! Such a good win. Good for Godzilla, great for action figures. I love it.

Best International Feature

Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Precited Winner: The Zone of Interest

Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest

12/18

Another very easy one, simple win.

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: The Boy and the Heron

Actual Winner: The Boy and the Heron

13/19

I literally fist-pumped. Not that I didn't like AtSV, I adored that film, but it never felt as real of a contender as the Heron. I'm just happy I got a rogue pick for once.

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Predicted Winner: John and Yoko

Actual Winner: John and Yoko

14/20

Yeah, I guess. Can't believe I actually won this. When you get the shorts, it just seals it as a good year.

Best Live-Action Short

The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Predicted Winner: Sugar

Actual Winner: Sugar

15/21

Thank you Wes Anderson for definitely guaranteeing an easy Oscar prediction in a category that is usually stupid as hell.

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Predicted Winner: Mariupol

Actual Winner: Mariupol

16/22

Again, easy one. I'm happy with it!

Best Documentary Short

The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Winner: Book Burning

Actual Winner: Repair Shop

16/23

Ok, whatever.

Anyway, 16/23 is the most I've ever gotten in the modern, 23-category era, and ties my second highest best years ever. And I should have probably gotten 17 with the right Barbie song. I maybe could have picked Poor Things for make-up and hairstyling I wasn't a bitter, jaded guy who was convinced I'd lose, but I don't think I would have changed anything else. I'm happy with the haul, so let's update the annual records:

First, our annual records:

2024: 16/23

2023: 11/23

2022: 12/23

2021: 12/23

2020: 13/24 

2019: 13/24 

2018: 16/24 

2017: 13/24 

2016: 14/24 

2015: 13/24 

2014: 20/24 

2013: 14/24 

2012: 16/24 

2011: 14/24 

2010: 12/24 

182nd Annual Oscar Prediction Post

We're here once again to give our Oscar predictions! Now, on a good year we're lucky to get like 50% of these things right. This is an exceptional year, though, as it's loaded with front runners, especially in the dud categories, so we're hoping for a little more. We'll see as always for Hollywood's Dumbest Night!

Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Winner: Oppenheimer

With all the major necessary awards and truly the cherriest of combos - historical biopic, popular, critically acclaimed, lots of acting noms, a deserved director, this seems like one of the more in the bag predictions of the last few years. What a strange world we're living in. Thanks a lot, Oppenheimer.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Winner: Gladstone

This one's tough. I can see Emma Stone pulling this off, but I also can't see her as being a two-time Academy Award winner. Then again, you've got Christoph Waltz and Mahershala Ali doing these things recently and I doubted them for the same reason. I kind of think KotFM is just too popular to not win anything.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Winner: Murphy

I don't know, I could eat my hat on this. Murphy seems to be the frontrunner but Giamatti is right there. I think after cleaning up BAFTA and SAG there isn't much more wiggle room for Giamatti, and it's got everything the Academy usually likes, AND well deserved for once.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Winner: Randolph

No one seems to talk about how the Academy DEFINITELY gives supporting awards to black folk, particularly black women as a way of saying they're invited to the party but aren't the main show. I think it's racist. I haven't seen The Holdovers and maybe Randolph is a revelation and I'm sure she is actually deserving but it's the same reason the white hero always has black sidekicks in Marvel movies.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Winner: RDJ

I mean, c'mon this would be pretty sweet.

Best Director

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

 Winner: Nolan

It's about time, I just don't think anyone catches him at this point. The Academy has liked to split this, but there aren't really enough viable films contending here to earn that. And Lanthimos probably did the best job, but they're not awarding fucking Yorgos Lanthimos.

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

I would have picked something safer like The Holdovers in a vacuum, but this thing just keeps sweeping awards and seems to be the clear favorite. I'm a big May December guy myself, which got to no attention anywhere, but I don't think it can win here. All these films are pretty high profile in an indie writing sense, so it'd be fun anywhere. Except Maestro. Screw that bait.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Winner: American Fiction

Doesn't it feel like this is a category where a film like American Fiction should win? Just outside, but still popular, but not International. I don't think Oppenheimer will totally sweep just because that's really rare, and c'mon, how is Barbie adapted from anything. Bizarre.

Best Cinematography

El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Killers of the Flower Moon

El Conde was really good! It won't get attention here. And Poor Things is doing more things with the camera than most films. Oppenheimer is the heavy favorite, but again, it's not going to win everything and I think the next biggest can upset here.

Best Original Score

American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Oppenheimer

See, this is where no one gets upset. Oppenheimer is definitely the best nominee here and then we can all move on with our lives.

Best Original Song

"The Fire Inside," Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)," Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie

Winner: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie

I legit think "I'm Just Ken" can do this, it's the most notable song of the year, everyone knows it, it's top to bottom solid. Everyone thinks the other Barbie song will get it, why bro? It's boring af. I think people say they'll vote with their hearts and minds, but they are really going to vote with their butts. We'll see if I bungle this slam dunk category. So Flamin' Hot was a real movie, eh?

Best Editing

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Oppenheimer

Move on with our lives

Best Production Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Barbie

Barbie had legit the best production design I've seen in a real long time and seems to be leading the pack here. Very deserved and would be an awesome win.

Best Costume Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Poor Things

Is it weird that I don't think Barbie's costuming is that great? It's not like the production design. I think this has gone to a lot of sci-fi and period pieces in the past and Poor Things fits that bill well, especially if it is actually as loved as the nominations are pointing it out to be.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Winner: Maestro

I picked the one that I want to win the least, which means it will. Oh, you always slap a fake nose on someone and it wins an Oscar. It's stupid. We'll see if this can go to Poor Things or the actually underrated subtlety of Oppenheimer instead,

Best Sound

The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Winner: Oppenheimer

Hey, there are some fun nominees here, but dude for the pep rally alone you know Oppenheimer is walking away with this one.

Best Visual Effects

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

Winner: Godzilla Minus One

I think this has some more momentum behind it - The Creator is a great second pick but I just don't think it was that widely seen or had a lot of buzz. I also really just want to see Marvel and Tom Cruise stew about being beat by these real low budget flicks.

Best International Feature

Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Winner: The Zone of Interest

Easily the most high profile film here. Done.

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Winner: The Boy and the Heron

As pumped as I was for the first Spider-Verse movie to win, I don't think the sequel pulls it off when there's a new Miyazaki film at play.

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Winner: John and Yoko

You're telling me folks aren't going to just vote for the Beatles.

Best Live-Action Short

The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Winner: Sugar

Easily the most high profile release, Wes Anderson, big names, people saw it on Netflix. Could be upset, but dang bro playing with fire in a house of matches this one.

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Winner: Mariupol

Madripool or whatever sounds good

Best Documentary Short

The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Winner: Book Burning

 My stars, my stars, a year where the bobo categories seem obvious? What a world. We'll see, we could all still be super wrong.

2023 Movie Watching in Review!

 It's time again for one of my favorite annual traditions - adding up all the movies I watched last year and pulling together some mildly interesting data! We have been doing this since 2015 and I'm proud to say this was our lightest year, yet! Here are our on-going stats:

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Total movies	198	220	224	249	200	182	181	202	171
First-time viewings	n/a	117	133	157	131	110	111	154	102
First-time viewing %	n/a	53%	59%	63%	66%	60%	61%	76%	60%
Streaming	n/a	55	81	157	118	133	134	160	133
Streaming %	n/a	25%	36%	63%	59%	73%	74%	79%	78%
TV	86	84	55	10	7	3	11	3	7
TV %	43%	38%	25%	4%	4%	2%	6%	1%	4%
Theater	10	11	12	16	8	2	7	9	6
Theater %	5%	5%	5%	6%	4%	1%	4%	4%	4%

As you can see, our first-time viewings were in line, percentage-wise with previous years, besides 2022, when I made the 52 in '22 concentrated effort to watch a lot of new things. It's amazing to see when that unraveled how much I fell back into typical habits. I don't mean to rewatch so many films!

Stgreaming's percentage has leveled off and we'll see if it sticks around that high 70% or so or continues to crawl. I had a bit more on TV, which was almost 100% hotel room stays, and my theater percentage has been very steady. I hate to say it to theater owners, but it is barely different from pre-pandemic numbers.

Methods

Disney+	21	12.3%
Netflix Streaming	19	11.1%
Amazon Prime	18	10.5%
HBOMax	17	9.9%
Netflix DVD	14	8.2%
Peacock	13	7.6%
Hulu	13	7.6%
Max	12	7.0%
Paramount+	11	6.4%
Planes	9	5.3%
Other Streaming	9	5.3%
TV	7	4.1%
Theater	6	3.5%
DVD	2	1.2%
Total Streaming:	133	77.8%

 Now, don't let Disney+'s numbers fool you, I separated MAX from HBOMax, which adds up to 29 movies, by far the most. Disney+ was mostly five Star Wars movies on January 1st, 2022, and a bunch of Christmas movies in December. I should note that they've still fallen - the past two years HBOMax has had around 60 movies, or 30%. Combined this year they're about 17%. Tbat's still my preferred method by a good chunk, but way way down.

A lot of that is assuredly them not being so eager to throw WB's movies on streaming so fast, but it's also definitely a dip both in quality of offerings and a heavily nerfed interface that no longer makes it easy to see both movies leaving soon and new arrivals.

What's remarkable is Amazon nearly matching Netflix after years of irrelevancy, and how Peacock, Hulu, and Paramount+ have all sort of leveled out, in a not insignificant way. The other streaming movies came from Apple TV+, XUMO, TUBI, YouTube, and Xfinity.

Lastly, let us mourn Netflix DVD. They conked out in September, so our numbers would have assuredly been higher, but I'm guessing Streaming's share crawls up even more.

Years

1930s	1	0.6%
1940s	1	0.6%
1950s	3	1.8%
1960s	2	1.2%
1970s	10	5.8%
1980s	23	13.5%
1990s	14	8.2%
2000s	18	10.5%
2010s	29	17.0%
2020s	69	40.4%
2023	40	23.4%

Nothing too mind-blowing here. I was surprised that I saw more 80s films than both the 90s and 2000s. As usual, we could do more pre-1960s. I had a kid this year, man, I went to the default. To get those olden, hard to find, brand-less films I just need to be super-intentional. This wasn't the year for that!

Months

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	AVERAGE
January	19	17	23	16	22	15	15	17	16	18
February	11	15	12	14	17	21	15	11	10	14
March	15	12	18	16	14	27	16	12	16	16
April	15	23	15	25	22	23	13	12	18	18
May	15	17	22	13	19	22	29	19	12	19
June	20	16	25	8	18	19	24	18	17	18
July	16	15	16	18	17	15	10	15	17	15
August	12	14	18	25	18	25	14	17	6	17
September	10	14	16	13	20	16	12	14	12	14
October	14	20	17	10	19	24	10	15	18	16
November	12	18	18	10	18	21	20	16	9	16
December	22	21	20	28	20	21	22	16	20	21

At this point it's clear that I have no monthly trends. February and September are busy months that usually dip and December generally peaks as I catch up on the year, have more time, and watch some Christmas movies.

August was my worst month ever. I had never had a month under 10, and I had two this year. Oh well. 2018 was nuts, with eight months with over 20 movies. That's how you get to 249! I think this month chart isn't accurate to the year. That's okay.

Genre

Action	44	25.7%
Adventure	16	9.4%
Comedy	54	31.6%
Drama	34	19.9%
Documentary	1	0.6%
Mockumentary	1	0.6%
Horror	15	8.8%
Thriller	4	2.3%
Romance	2	1.2%

For the first time we tracked genre! Comedy and action dominated, which shouldn't be too big of a surprise. I really debated how specific to get - I think I started out tracking Sci-Fi, Western, etc but apparently gave that up at some point. If anyone wants to get more specific, leave a comment! Ha.

I'd like to keep doing genre. At this level until I get bored.

What does our future hold? Man I don't know what streaming service is going to come out on top. Peacock and Paramount+ are nice for their specific studios' new releases, but really not much else. However, there are so many movies that I just wouldn't really see in theaters. I'm genuinely curious if studios think about this. They must, right? Surely people are like me, I know I'm more of a cinephile than the average person, but surely that means that I am actually going to the theater much more often than the average person. But I still only saw 3.5% of all the movies I saw in the theater.

All that means is that I really don't think we should care at all about Box Office numbers. I don't think bombs exist anymore. We should really think about cultural influence in terms of total number of eyeballs that watched a piece of media. Now, for some reason that's difficult, even though streaming services can assuredly track all this stuff more accurately than any previous time in history. I don't know why studios don't just go full into announcing these kinds of metrics and totally ignore the cinema. The audiences have! Was The Flash that big of a bomb this year? How many folks watched it on MAX? Probably more than ever watched Batman Returns (1992), which is an insane statement, but for real, we're in a scary new world and it's time to except that the streaming vs. theater experience is 78% vs. 3.5%.

I posit that more people are watching more movies than ever before. This is probably a big reason why we seem to lack cultural events - when a big movie was in the theater as the best possible viewing experience (images on both VHS and TVs sucked for such a long time) we all went. But more than that, when we can watch anything any time, even though we have much greater distribution and are seeing more movies than ever, that's precisely the problem. We aren't sharing and festering on one event, we've got seven more to get through throughout the year and it's that much harder for anything to stand out.

All that makes Super Mario, Barbie, and Oppenheimer all that much more interesting - as each one was a novel experience. It's strange to me that again, who knows how many eyeballs actually watched every movie of the year, but the top Box Office films also still felt like the biggest event films. Might that just be how much our culture globs on to cinema still? Or just that when culture is concentrated around a weekend it somehow feels more significant than say, spread out over both cinematic and VOD releases? I have eagerly anticipated a few streaming releases this year, like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, although I swear they changed that a ton of times. If they hyped up VOD releases maybe they could conquer this (and I should say, free streaming releases, I don't know why anyone would pay $20 for these films on VOD. We do have all sorts of weird hangups, like even though our TV can match the big screen in quality, it's still not equal financially).

This is also all a big way to create sleeper cult hits. Because of course there's more than one way to become culturally relevant. So many films have found their niche on TV or DVD, in fact even the biggest films who can't repeat that success tend to fade into the background. That's why we tend to do best of lists around here one to ten years apart. It takes a really long time for great films to sink in. This is a long way of saying, I think that's just our world now.

What do we have in store for 2024?! Check back in a year to find out