09 February 2020

They Say Hindsight is OSCAR 2020 LIVE blog!

Okay people - I do not own a television so basing this off Twitter. This should work out fine. I always have terrible predictions so I went really off the rocker with a few of these categories this year. That should work out, right?! I think JoJo Rabbit (2019) is winning screenplay instead of The Irishman. Official predictions remain solid, but I think that will happen now and I wanted to say it. I will definitely get all of the shorts categories right, though.

Stay tuned for updates all night and we'll see how I do!

Supporting Actor:

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Official Prediction: Brad Pitt
Offical Winner: BRAD PITT!

Okay, this was an admittedly easy one to start off with, but it's still exciting. Yeah, yeah, Pitt has an Oscar for producing 12 Years a Slave (2013) and all that, but this definitely feels like a good capper for him. It's exciting. He's had a fantastic career and continually commits to smaller, independent films and roles while being in a position where he could have been Tom Cruise and made six Fight Club (1999) sequels if he wanted to. The only comic book movie he's appeared in is Vanisher in Deadpool 2 (2018). This is a good award.

Score: 1/1

Animated Feature:

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Dean DeBlois
I Lost My Body, Jeremy Clapin
Klaus, Sergio Pablos
Missing Link, Chris Butler
Toy Story 4,  Josh Cooley

Official Prediction: Missing Link
Official Winner: Toy Story 4

I hate to say that I'm so done with Pixar. The magic at this point is long gone and I'm over it. I maybe could have predicted this but thought I saw some cracks with Toy Story 4 not really dominating precursors, but it's by far the most recognizable nominee here, and a lot of times that's all it takes. Can't wait for Toy Story 5 to win in six years.

Score: 1/2

Animated Short:

“Dcera”, Daria Kashcheeva
“Hair Love”, Matthew A. Cherry
“Kitbull”, Rosana Sullivan
“Memorable”, Bruno Collet
“Sister”, Siqi Song

Official Prediction: "Hair Love"
Official Winner: "Hair Love"

Haha, I miss Animated Feature but got Animated Short. Damn straight. This was definitely the cutest nominee and I'm glad that was enough. This is huge for my predictions. Too bad Sisqo didn't win.

Score: 2/3

Original Screenplay:

Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han

Official Prediction: OUATIH
Offical Winner: Parasite

This is...an interesting development. Parasite was favored to win a few categories but this was not one of them. This doesn't bode that well for Tarantino, unless it's a consolation prize and it can surge somewhere else. Might this be a big night for Bong Joon-ho? Three writing awards for Q is probably a little much.

Score: 2/4

Adapted Screenplay:

The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten

Official Prediction: The Irishman
Official Winner: Jojo Rabbit

See above. Screw my life. Great win, this makes me feel a lot more happy than my prediction. I still count this against me. The Irishman will likely officially win nothing and I might say this will be it for Jojo Rabbit, but we could see - it seems to be surging lately. My score is terrible.

Score: 2/5

Best Live Action Short Film:

“Brotherhood,” Meryam Joobeur
“Nefta Football Club,” Yves Piat
“The Neighbors’ Window,” Marshall Curry
“Saria,” Bryan Buckley
“A Sister,” Delphine Girard

Official Prediction: "Nefta Football Club"
Official Winner: “The Neighbors’ Window”

I actually watched both of these, "Neighbors' Window" was lame as hell. Whatever. These are typically a crapshoot. Good to get my boffs out early. Maybe. I am way down, folks. Please no upsets. This is terrible.

Score: 2/6

Costume Design:

The Irishman, Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit, Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker, Mark Bridges
Little Women, Jacqueline Durran
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, Arianne Phillips

Official Prediction: OUATIH
Official Winner: Little Women

Are you telling me that the kind of movie that always wins this category actually won this category!? And that I should have predicted one of the easiest categories of the night?! Oh, whatever. This is already turning into an awful night for me. Well deserved, though. We knew this would happen. I am mathematically eliminated from tying my best prediction night, so...good.

Score: 2/7

Best Documentary Feature:

American Factory, Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar
The Cave, Feras Fayyad
The Edge of Democracy, Petra Costa
For Sama, Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts
Honeyland, Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov

Official Prediction: American Factory
Official Winner: American Factory

I just watched this! Good win, this was a really interesting doc and most importantly, is the first step towards saving my night. In hindsight this had a lot of backing behind it - I did NOT realize the Obamas had a hand in this until this morning. See, my prediction is even better. I never get anything wrong.

Score: 3/8

Best Documentary Short Subject:

“In the Absence,” Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone,” Carol Dysinger
“Life Overtakes Me,” Kristine Samuelson and John Haptas
“St. Louis Superman,” Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
“Walk Run Cha-Cha,” Laura Nix

Official Prediction: “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone"
Official Winner: “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone"

Yay! This was a great documentary, fantastic job fighting off "Walk Run Cha-Cha"! Yes, I got into that rivalry. I am doing a great job of nailing some difficult categories and blowing the easy ones. Let's keep this streak alive.

Score: 4/9

Supporting Actress:

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Official Prediction: Laura Dern
Official Winner: Laura Dern

Thank goodness for these non-existent races this year. Laura Dern is the kind of actress that you think about and think, "She has an Oscar, right?" NOW SHE DOES! She was also 26 years old in Jurassic Park (1993). This is a great win for an actress who seems like she's only built a career in Indie films but has also been in some of the biggest movies of all time and just always puts in consistent work. She's also in a ton of movies lately. This is another great win.

Score: 5/10

Sound Editing:

Ford v Ferrari, Don Sylvester
Joker, Alan Robert Murray
1917, Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, Wylie Stateman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Matthew Wood, David Acord

Official Prediction1917
Official Winner: Ford v Ferrari

This is a significant dent in 1917's Best Picture campaign, but not a death knell. Ford v Ferrari seemed underrated going into this night as a movie that did reasonably well, had reasonably good critical reception, and a general public liking. It didn't set anything on fire, but DID have race cars. Good for sound I guess. This category really loves war pictures, this win will make future predictions such a pain in the ass.

Score: 5/11

Sound Mixing:

Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Official Prediction1917
Official Winner1917

Well, look at that. This category split, and we got it. I wonder when these categories will merge, even though they're totally different skills. Best Sound has a good ring to it, though, don't it? At this rate I'm on pace to shoot right down the middle and tie my all-time worst. Magical night.

Score: 6/12

Film Editing:

Ford v. Ferrari, Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland
The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles
Joker, Jeff Groth
Parasite, Jinmo Yang

Official PredictionParasite
Official Winner: Ford v. Ferrari

WHAT IS HAPPENING? Screw everybody. I don't know what this means for Parasite. Where is Ford v. Ferrari coming from to ruin everybody's party? Maybe this doesn't mean a whole lot, it's just splitting a lot of categories the big pictures were supposed to sweep. And my predictions are so terrible.

Score: 6/13

Visual Effects:

Avengers Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Official Prediction: Endgame
Official Winner: 1917

Unreal. I might have picked this as the least likely to win this category. The Academy seems really adverse to big blockbusters in this category for some reason. For a while this was at least the consolation category. How does Endgame not win this? That was a legitimate landmark movie for its effect work. Maybe folks don't want to admit that's the future of filmmaking. Does this push 1917 in better position for Best Picture? Or is it just the only film in this category folks would vote for?

Score: 6/14

Makeup and Hair:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Official Prediction: Bombshell
Official Winner: Bombshell

Good win, following all protocol and precedent. I remember this happening every year. I always get so desperate to get back on track. I think I'm on lock for at least four more. I've never gotten less than 50% but it's possible this year. Yay.

Score: 7/15

Best International Feature Film:

Corpus Christi, Jan Komasa
Honeyland, Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
Les Miserables, Ladj Ly
Pain and Glory, Pedro Almodovar
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho

Official Prediction: Parasite
Official Winner: Parasite

Perhaps the biggest lock category in modern times. This helps. We knew this would happen - the question is, can Parasite keep winning categories typically foreign to foreign films?

Score: 8/16


The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
1917, Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, Robert Richardson

Official Prediction: 1917
Official Winner: 1917

Deserved because the Academy loves Oners even though this totally should have been The Lighthouse. In fact the Film Independent Spirit Awards should just be the Oscars. Anyway, Deakins is deserved here, and even though his Blade Runner 2049 (2017) made up a little for decades of snubs, he could just win every cinematography award from here until he dies and it wouldn't be enough.

Score: 9/17

Original Score:

Joker, Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
1917, Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams

Official Prediction: 1917
Official Winner: Joker

Yeah, yeah, I know. Everyone else and their mother predicted Joker for this. I didn't. I was wrong. Dud. I should have more wins than I currently do. Solid gold predictions have been wrong before! 1917 isn't quite clicking, but I probably shouldn't have counted Joker out from anything. Yeah, I did, fuck Joker.

Score: 9/18

Original Song:

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet

Official PredictionRocketman
Official Winner: Rocketman

This seemed like a shoe-in and so I actually predicted it. Look at me! Was Rocketman actually good? I should get at least two more categories right and at least tie my worst ever effort at this.

Score: 10/19


Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Official Prediction: Tarantino
Official Winner: Bong

I can't believe that Tarantino leaves empty handed. What does he gotta do to get his hands on this statue? Don't get me wrong, this win is huge and well-deserved. While this seemed for a long time like it would mean Parasite is in charge of Best Picture, it's more common to now proclaim a split. Does 1917 have a chance?! Or will the Academy honor Tarantino after all and award BP to OUATIH? Ugh this ceremony.

Score: 10/20

Production Design:

The Irishman, Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
Jojo Rabbit, Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova
1917, Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
Parasite, Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee

Official Prediction: OUATIH
Official Winner: OUATIH

Okay, I admit, I feel asleep on this one and totally missed the Twitter notification. I was kind of wondering why they were taking so long with Production Design. Like, saving it until after Best Director? Anyway, well deserved here, and boosts my tally. Cheers all around.

Score: 11/21

Lead Actor:

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Official Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix
Official Winner: Joaquin Phoenix

Listen, I love Joaquin, he's one of my favorite all time actors. I love how much he doesn't give a crap about being famous, how insanely he throws himself into roles and how much he eschews his own regard for his reputation. But Joker wasn't great, and he's not great in it. I said it. It's great that he has a second Oscar, he joins rarefied but deserved company. This is the second Oscar someone's gotten for playing the Joker, which is really bizarre and a little unsettling. Still, obvious pick and I've tied my all-time low, guaranteeing I don't do worse. Yay.

Score: 12/22

Lead Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Official Prediction: Renee Zellweger
Official Winner: Renee Zellweger

It occurs to me that the CATS (2019) post I also wrote tonight simultaneously while writing this post was technically published afterwards, all these are just edits, so it will be pinned to the top. All things as they should be. I don't think anyone cared about Judy and her momentum was always kind of weird, and she already has an Oscar, and hasn't been relevant for a while, so this is fine. Predictable, fine, I get a point.

Score: 13/23

Best Picture:

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

Official Prediction: 1917
Official Winner: Parasite

So, the streak continues! I haven't correctly picked a Best Picture winner since 2013. Why are any of you still checking in on this blog? I've hit 13 correct predictions four times in the past six years, three times in the past four years, and twice in the past two years! This is pretty bad! I think I cold have easily squeezed out three, probably four more correct picks from Jojo, Little Women, Toy Story 4, and Joker's score. I should have known better. I feel like when I think I know better I fall on my face anyway. The face of depression. But a lot of this Ford v. Ferrari crap no one saw coming. Oh well. That's a wrap on 2020 Oscar season.

Past years:

2010: 12/24

2011: 14/24
2012: 16/24
2013: 14/24
2014: 20/24
2015: 13/24
2016: 14/24
2017: 13/24
2018: 16/24
2019: 13/24
2020: 13/24

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