It is time once again for absolutely correct Oscar predictions! Every year I pay attention less, so this of course gets a lot more fun. I was never great when I did pay attention so like everything in life, nothing matters! Let's get to it with some new fun categories:
Best Picture
Bugonia (Focus Features); Ed Guiney & Andrew
Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers
F1 (Apple); Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner,
Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
Frankenstein (Netflix); Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott
Stuber, Producers
Hamnet (Focus Features); Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas
Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers
Marty Supreme (A24); Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie,
Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Adam Somner, Sara Murphy
and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
The Secret Agent (Neon); Emilie Lesclaux, Producer
Sentimental Value (Neon); Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen
Ottmar, Producers
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan
Coogler, Producers
Train Dreams (Netflix); Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will
Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers
Prediction: One Battle After Another
It has maybe lost a bit of steam but I don't think there's any actual world where this doesn't win. I am definitely a fan of Train Dreams but that's not going to do shit. Sinners maybe but I doubt it.
Best Director
Hamnet (Focus Features), Chloé Zhao
Marty Supreme (A24), Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.), Paul Thomas Anderson
Sentimental Value (Neon), Joachim Trier
Sinners (Warner Bros.), Ryan Coogler
Prediction: PTA gets his well-earned career achievement award in one of his better movies, not just a gimme, so we'll take it.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan in Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent (Neon)
Prediction: Could it really be Michael B. Jordan?! It seemed like it would be Chalamet for a long time but he seems to have soured on the award circuit and Michael B has picked up some momentum. It would make some sense for this to come away with something big and nobody dislikes Michael B. Jordan.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley in Hamnet (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value (Neon)
Emma Stone in Bugonia (Focus Features)
Prediction: Buckley. I really like her in I'm Thinking of Ending Things (2020) and Fargo and she has done a ton of weird awesome shit in bad movies like Men (2022). I wonder if The Bride! (2026) will have a Norbit (2006) effect on her but Jupiter Ascending (2015) was fine for Eddie Redmayne so I think it's all good.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another (Warner
Bros.)
Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein (Netflix)
Delroy Lindo in Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Sean Penn in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value (Neon)
Prediction: Is it Sean Penn?! I think Stellan still has the edge in what is now a possible upset. He just has an unlauded career, a recent diagnosis, and plenty of good will. Sean Penn does an insanely good job and has momentum with the American voting body. I might go with Penn but I want half credit if Stellan wins.
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value (Neon)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value (Neon)
Amy Madigan in Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Prediction: Early on this seemed like Madigan, then it seemed like it could be Teyana and now it seems like Madigan again. It is the safe pick and where momentum is going, and I don't think anyone else here is really a lock.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia (Focus Features); Screenplay by Will
Tracy
Frankenstein (Netflix); Written for the Screen by Guillermo del
Toro
Hamnet (Focus Features); Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie
O’Farrell
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Written by Paul Thomas
Anderson
Train Dreams (Netflix); Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg
Kwedar
Prediction: One Battle After Another is the only really big one here. Everything else is too small or too niche (Frankenstein).
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics); Written by Robert
Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident (Neon); Written by Jafar Panahi; Script
collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme (A24); Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value (Neon); Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Written by Ryan Coogler
Prediction: Sinners just seems monumental here, and these two popular movies can split this category easy.
Best Animated Feature
Arco (Neon); Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry,
Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
Elio (Walt Disney); Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
and Mary Alice Drumm
KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and
Michelle L.M. Wong
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS); Maïlys Vallade,
Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney); Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino
Prediction: Winds are blowing towards KPOP, which was a huge phenomenon but how can you deny Twotwopia 2? I will deny it! KPOP is assuredly the better film and might get originality points.
Best International Feature
Brazil, The Secret Agent
France, It Was Just an Accident
Norway, Sentimental Value
Spain, Sirat
Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Prediction: This one is kind of tough. Both The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value seem to be getting some mainstream appeal. I think the latter is the one with more of the buzz.
Best Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution (HBO Documentary Films);
Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple); Ryan White, Jessica
Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
Cutting Through Rocks; Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PINK); Nominees to be determined
The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix); Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon
Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
Prediction: Perfect Neighbor is leading and I did see the trailer for this! I feel like Alabama could get in there but Neighbor seems like it has the monumental buzz.
Best Animated Short
Butterfly (Sacrebleu Productions); Florence
Miailhe and Ron Dyens
Forevergreen; Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
The Girl Who Cried Pearls (National Film Board of Canada); Chris
Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
Retirement Plan; John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
The Three Sisters (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures); Konstantin
Bronzit
Prediction: Pearls sounds like it has the best title.
Best Casting
Hamnet (Focus Features); Nina Gold
Marty Supreme (A24); Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent (Neon); Gabriel Domingues
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Francine Maisler
Prediction: The first ever of a well-deserved category seems like it is going to go to Sinners, which does just feel ripe for this kind of category. A wide range of character actors, established starts, up-and-comers who all play a diverse range of character arcs and relationships. It's the kind of slam dunk this was made for.
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein (Netflix), Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme (A24), Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.), Michael Bauman
Sinners (Warner Bros.), Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams (Netflix), Adolpho Veloso
Prediction: Battle has the best while being the most mainstream. That VistaVision does do a lot of the work and while Train Dreams probably has the best framing, and Sinners can just show Mississippi, all they have to do is play that ending car scene.
Best Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Deborah L.
Scott
Frankenstein (Netflix); Kate Hawley
Hamnet (Focus Features); Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme (A24); Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ruth E. Carter
Prediction: I don't understand AVABAR here, did they design any costumes for this movie? Most folks say Frankenstein, I am going bold and saying Sinners, this is the kind of film that needs to clean up these categories to match its massive nominations without any really major wins and it feels firmly landed in reality instead of some of these others.
Best Documentary Short
All the Empty Rooms (Netflix); Joshua Seftel and
Conall Jones
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO);
Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky); Hilla Medalia and
Sheila Nevins
The Devil Is Busy (HBO); Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Perfectly a Strangeness (Second Sight Pictures); Alison McAlpine
Prediction: Renaud? I base these from the titles. Filmmakers like voting for films about films, especially when coming up, right?
Best Film Editing
F1 (Apple); Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme (A24); Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value (Neon); Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Michael P. Shawver
Prediction: I am going Battle for everything but not too sure. This could go something weird like F1.
Best Live-Action Short
Butcher’s Stain (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch
School of Film and Television); Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
A Friend of Dorothy; Lee Knight and James Dean
Jane Austen’s Period Drama; Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
The Singers (Netflix); Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
Two People Exchanging Saliva (Canal+/The New Yorker); Alexandre
Singh and Natalie Musteata
Prediction: Oof. Man, I don't know. The one about spitting.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein (Netflix); Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel
and Cliona Furey
Kokuho (GKIDS); Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine (A24); Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern
Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister (Independent Film Company/Shudder); Thomas
Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Prediction: Yeah, they made the Rock not look like the Rock too much. But if Frank doesn't win costuming it's got to win this and it looks pretty cool and unique.
Best Original Score
Bugonia (Focus Features); Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein (Netflix); Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet (Focus Features); Max Richter
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Jonny Greenwood
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ludwig Goransson
Prediction: Does diagetic music count as score? Because then Sinners. If not, who knows. Let's go with that.
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass/Greenwich
Entertainment); Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix); Music and Lyric by
EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon
Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.); Music and Lyric
by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (Viva Verdi!); Music
and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix); Music by Nick Cave
and Bryce Dessner, Lyric by Nick Cave
Prediction: Could it be "Golden"!? That would be so cool! Song always goes to the song that influenced the movie the most and this is a GOLDEN opportunity yeeeeeee
Best Production Design
Frankenstein (Netflix); Production Design:
Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Hamnet (Focus Features); Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set
Decoration: Alice Felton
Marty Supreme (A24); Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration:
Adam Willis
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Production Design:
Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set
Decoration: Monique Champagne
Prediction: What the hell is Hamnet about? Is it getting like best visual effects nominations? Is it some Shakespeare thing? Everything seems to be pointing towards Frankenstein. It's hard to see any upsets frankly in any category this year it seems. Well, I broke ranks for costuming! I guess not here.
Best Sound
F1 (Apple) Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn
Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
Frankenstein (Netflix) Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson
Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); José Antonio García,
Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe
Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
Sirat (Neon); Amanda Vil
It looks like this is leaning towards F1 and this is such an F1 kind of category, I had thought about this before I even saw it was nominated.
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Joe Letteri,
Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
F1 (Apple); Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and
Keith Dawson
Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal); David Vickery, Stephen Aplin,
Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
The Lost Bus (Apple); Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen
and Brandon K. McLaughlin
Sinners (Warner Bros.) Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter
and Donnie Dean
AVABAR I guess.
