16 March 2026

2026 OSCARS! I was....right?!

There's something I don't write all that often. I think I actually did well this year. It seemed like a remarkably easy year to predict and truth be told the only ones I really stumbled on were the ones where I just assumed there would have to be an upset SOMEWHERE but no, not really. So let's dive in!

Best Picture

Prediction: One Battle After Another 
Winner: One Battle After Another 

Reaction: Yay! It is rare that I get these right and while this certainly did seem like the obvious pick since it came out, it did fend off a bit of Sinners at the end to secure PTA's legacy.

Best Director

Prediction: PTA
Winner: PTA

Wrapping it up. There is a lot going on here, a soft year for sure, but also PTA was the only one really firing on all cylinders this year, which is also a very PTA thing to do.

Best Actor

Prediction: Michael B. Jordan
Winner: Michael B. Jordan

Holy shit! As if this dude needed anything else to be more bankable. I did not expect this. Did he win for playing Smoke or Stack?

Best Actress

Prediction: Buckley
Winner: Buckley

Such a slam dunk, she rocks.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: Sean Penn
Winner: Sean Penn

I honestly don't care that he didn't show up. His honest belief in the fact that acting awards are stupid is awesome and he seems to completely not care. How baller is that. He seems like such a stuck up guy but then he commits to this really weird role and absolutely crushes it. I actually like Sean Penn a lot more after this movie and his no show, so I'll give him that.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Amy Madigan
Winner: Amy Madigan

Unbelievable! I'm not sure she really did all that great of a job, but it is a weird memorable villain. She is perhaps more lauded in the community than I knew about, which is cool.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: One Battle After Another
Winner: One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction: Sinners
Winner: Sinners

These were the best two so why not give them each their award? This year lined up like crazy. I'm 8/8 btw.

Best Animated Feature

Prediction: KPop
Winner: KPop

So cool! 9/9.

Best International Feature

Prediction: Sentimental Value
Winner: Sentimental Value

Nailed the Sent Val, baby! I don't actually know if this was contested or not, seemed to me like it was always the pick. 10/10

Best Documentary Feature

Prediction: Perfect Neighbor
Winner: Putin

Maybe people confused Perfect Neighbor with Nobody Putin, it's definitely tough. It's hard to pick which issue is going to glob with cheeseball voters but I guess this one won out in a mild upset. 10/11.

Best Animated Short

Prediction: Pearls
Winner: Pearls

Straight up picked this one based on titles. I have no idea what is about. There is nothing that makes me happier. 11/12

Best Casting

Prediction: Sinners
Winner: One Battle After Another 

I suppose this category has no trends, but good to know. I would have still picked Sinners to win even after Battle actually won, not that the latter is poor but Sinners just really coasts on its casting and charm with a big, showy cast. OBAA clearly won by casting Jim Downey. 11/13

Best Cinematography

Prediction: Battle
Winner: Sinners

I have a bit of this where I picked one and the other won, which I think is bound to happen when two films are really just dueling all night. I feel the same way about casting. I think Battle really had this on lock while Sinners had casting on lock, so whatever. 11/14

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein (Netflix); Kate Hawley
Hamnet (Focus Features); Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme (A24); Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ruth E. Carter

Prediction: Sinners
Winner: Frankenstein 

Frankenstein went with the full technical sweep, which it was predicted to do. This is what I'm talking about when I said I just figured something would be upset so I went with this one because Sinners also crushes costume design. I guess the just like dem rags better. 11/15

Best Documentary Short

All the Empty Rooms (Netflix); Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO); Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky); Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
The Devil Is Busy (HBO); Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Perfectly a Strangeness (Second Sight Pictures); Alison McAlpine

Prediction: Renaud?
Winner: Empty Rooms

I have no real thoughts or opinion here. 11/16

Best Film Editing

F1 (Apple); Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme (A24); Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value (Neon); Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Michael P. Shawver

Prediction: Battle
Winner: Battle

After some misfires, the game gets easier again. 12/17

Best Live-Action Short

Prediction: Oof. Man, I don't know. The one about spitting.
Winner: Saliva tie!

That counts! 13/18

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Prediction: Frankenstein 
Winner: Frankenstein 

I went normal this time and it paid off. 14/19

Best Original Score

Prediction: Sinners 
Winner: Sinners 

Everything is falling into place. How did this ceremony take 3.5 hours? 15/20

Best Original Song

Prediction: "Golden"
Winner: "Golden"

Now, I'd argue that "Golden" isn't even the best song in this movie but it definitely caught on the most so it's obviously a good pick here. No "Train Dreams"! 16/21

Best Production Design

Prediction: Frankenstein 
Winner: Frankenstein 

So much this year just seemed to default. Like, I'm not sure anyone was better than Frankenstein so it kind of gets the default pick. But surely there were some other great bits lurking out there? In the shadows! 17/22

Best Sound

Prediction: F1
Winner: F1

And somehow  F1 was always destined to win this and it did. What a bizarre year. 18/23

Best Visual Effects

Prediction: AVABAR
Winner: AVABAR

Should have gone to Planet of the Apes if you ask me! 19/24.

This is somehow not my best year, but I don't think I ever would have flipped casting and cinematography. I did pretty well on the shorts and docs, but not perfect, but I think if I had just stuck with the favorite I could have matched my all time score of 20/24 from 2014. What a year!

2026: 19/24
2025: 16/23
2024: 16/23
2023: 11/23
2022: 12/23
2021: 12/23
2020: 13/24 
2019: 13/24 
2018: 16/24 
2017: 13/24 
2016: 14/24 
2015: 13/24 
2014: 20/24 
2013: 14/24 
2012: 16/24 
2011: 14/24 
2010: 12/24 

I have actually had a decent streak somehow. I usually bat 0.500. Dang I have been doing this for a while.

Happy movies, everyone!

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