There's something I don't write all that often. I think I actually did well this year. It seemed like a remarkably easy year to predict and truth be told the only ones I really stumbled on were the ones where I just assumed there would have to be an upset SOMEWHERE but no, not really. So let's dive in!
Best Picture
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Winner: One Battle After Another
Reaction: Yay! It is rare that I get these right and while this certainly did seem like the obvious pick since it came out, it did fend off a bit of Sinners at the end to secure PTA's legacy.
Best Director
Prediction: PTA
Winner: PTA
Wrapping it up. There is a lot going on here, a soft year for sure, but also PTA was the only one really firing on all cylinders this year, which is also a very PTA thing to do.
Best Actor
Prediction: Michael B. Jordan
Winner: Michael B. Jordan
Holy shit! As if this dude needed anything else to be more bankable. I did not expect this. Did he win for playing Smoke or Stack?
Best Actress
Prediction: Buckley
Winner: Buckley
Such a slam dunk, she rocks.
Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Sean Penn
Winner: Sean Penn
I honestly don't care that he didn't show up. His honest belief in the fact that acting awards are stupid is awesome and he seems to completely not care. How baller is that. He seems like such a stuck up guy but then he commits to this really weird role and absolutely crushes it. I actually like Sean Penn a lot more after this movie and his no show, so I'll give him that.
Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Amy Madigan
Winner: Amy Madigan
Unbelievable! I'm not sure she really did all that great of a job, but it is a weird memorable villain. She is perhaps more lauded in the community than I knew about, which is cool.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Winner: One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: Sinners
Winner: Sinners
These were the best two so why not give them each their award? This year lined up like crazy. I'm 8/8 btw.
Best Animated Feature
Prediction: KPop
Winner: KPop
So cool! 9/9.
Best International Feature
Prediction: Sentimental Value
Winner: Sentimental Value
Nailed the Sent Val, baby! I don't actually know if this was contested or not, seemed to me like it was always the pick. 10/10
Best Documentary Feature
Prediction: Perfect Neighbor
Winner: Putin
Maybe people confused Perfect Neighbor with Nobody Putin, it's definitely tough. It's hard to pick which issue is going to glob with cheeseball voters but I guess this one won out in a mild upset. 10/11.
Best Animated Short
Prediction: Pearls
Winner: Pearls
Straight up picked this one based on titles. I have no idea what is about. There is nothing that makes me happier. 11/12
Best Casting
Prediction: Sinners
Winner: One Battle After Another
I suppose this category has no trends, but good to know. I would have still picked Sinners to win even after Battle actually won, not that the latter is poor but Sinners just really coasts on its casting and charm with a big, showy cast. OBAA clearly won by casting Jim Downey. 11/13
Best Cinematography
Prediction: Battle
Winner: Sinners
I have a bit of this where I picked one and the other won, which I think is bound to happen when two films are really just dueling all night. I feel the same way about casting. I think Battle really had this on lock while Sinners had casting on lock, so whatever. 11/14
Best Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash (Walt Disney); Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein (Netflix); Kate Hawley
Hamnet (Focus Features); Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme (A24); Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Ruth E. Carter
Prediction: Sinners
Winner: Frankenstein
Frankenstein went with the full technical sweep, which it was predicted to do. This is what I'm talking about when I said I just figured something would be upset so I went with this one because Sinners also crushes costume design. I guess the just like dem rags better. 11/15
Best Documentary Short
All the Empty Rooms (Netflix); Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO); Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky); Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
The Devil Is Busy (HBO); Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Perfectly a Strangeness (Second Sight Pictures); Alison McAlpine
Prediction: Renaud?
Winner: Empty Rooms
I have no real thoughts or opinion here. 11/16
Best Film Editing
F1 (Apple); Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme (A24); Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value (Neon); Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners (Warner Bros.); Michael P. Shawver
Prediction: Battle
Winner: Battle
After some misfires, the game gets easier again. 12/17
Best Live-Action Short
Prediction: Oof. Man, I don't know. The one about spitting.
Winner: Saliva tie!
That counts! 13/18
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Prediction: Frankenstein
Winner: Frankenstein
I went normal this time and it paid off. 14/19
Best Original Score
Prediction: Sinners
Winner: Sinners
Everything is falling into place. How did this ceremony take 3.5 hours? 15/20
Best Original Song
Prediction: "Golden"
Winner: "Golden"
Now, I'd argue that "Golden" isn't even the best song in this movie but it definitely caught on the most so it's obviously a good pick here. No "Train Dreams"! 16/21
Best Production Design
Prediction: Frankenstein
Winner: Frankenstein
So much this year just seemed to default. Like, I'm not sure anyone was better than Frankenstein so it kind of gets the default pick. But surely there were some other great bits lurking out there? In the shadows! 17/22
Best Sound
Prediction: F1
Winner: F1
And somehow F1 was always destined to win this and it did. What a bizarre year. 18/23
Best Visual Effects
Prediction: AVABAR
Winner: AVABAR
Should have gone to Planet of the Apes if you ask me! 19/24.
This is somehow not my best year, but I don't think I ever would have flipped casting and cinematography. I did pretty well on the shorts and docs, but not perfect, but I think if I had just stuck with the favorite I could have matched my all time score of 20/24 from 2014. What a year!
2026: 19/24
2025: 16/23
2024: 16/23
2023: 11/23
2022: 12/23
2021: 12/23
2020: 13/24
2019: 13/24
2018: 16/24
2017: 13/24
2016: 14/24
2015: 13/24
2014: 20/24
2013: 14/24
2012: 16/24
2011: 14/24
2010: 12/24
I have actually had a decent streak somehow. I usually bat 0.500. Dang I have been doing this for a while.
Happy movies, everyone!
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