More 2016 Afterthoughts n Superlatives

By now we're about a week into 2017 and so far so good. No major deaths or anything. There was a shitty airport attack, but all in all pretty good. Pretty sort of good. But I was thinking a bit more about 2016 and there was a handful of stuff I wanted to address that didn't have any place anywhere else.

Now, I rarely do quick, unfocused posts like this, but for what it's worth, here's my final collection of 2016 thoughts:

"Be prepaaaaared!"

Best Villain: Somehow this made a ton of money but critically and Internet-ally, The Jungle Book (2016) seemed under the radar. Still, it really deserves some props for its stunning effects, even if the lack of a real environment is kind of a pain and some animals come off pretty creepy. The voice work isn't really good at all here, but damn if Shere Khan isn't the Best Villain to hit cinemas all year. Idris Elba is far better here than in Star Trek Beyond (2016), which is kind of a mess. You'd cheer for Khan's perspective if he wasn't also so damn evil. His viewpoint is perfectly captured and the threat whenever he's on screen is palpable.

Most Exaggerated Disaster: Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) was unconscionably bad anyway you slice it, but the framing of the conversation was far more wicked than it needed to be. It still grossed a ton of cash, and Warner Bros shouldn't be all that worried. Still, every thing that happened was remarkably stupid and groan-worthy.

Best Sister Accomplishments: No one in music had a better year than the Knowles Sisters. Solange, who up until 2016 was mostly known as Beyonce's sister got to be known as Solange this year, and the pair somehow churned out some of the most artistic videos of the year. Beyonce is at a point in her career where she's just having proud insane cheeky confident fun, albeit with some devastating (? I guess?) subject matter. Solange still needs to prove herself, but in doing so came up with the more opaque but nevertheless compelling material.

Worst Oscar Stutter: Birth of a Nation (2016) went from Oscar frontrunner to dead in the water, mostly on Nate Parker's Penn State Rape acquittal. That's all kind of bullshit that shouldn't reflect on the film itself, but needed to be brought up every time the flick is mentioned. We're also honestly weary of the slavery narrative. It's amazing how much this film fell off, though.

Most Forgettable / Unnecessary Sequel: 2016 will forever be known for its horrible, horrible sequels that all went no where and bombed. Or to be more accurate, it won't be, because no one will remember this trash. Between Jason Bourne, Star Trek Beyond, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Out of the Shadows, Independence Day: Resurgence, Kung Fu Panda 3, Ride Along 2, Zoolander 2, London Has Fallen (I actually really liked that one), The Divergent Series: Allegiant, The Huntsman: Winter's War, X-Men: Apocalypse, Now You See Me 2, Bridget Jones' Baby, Blair Witch, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Bad Santa 2, and Underworld: Blood Wars. That list is actually more staggering than I thought. I want to call out Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them for being decently successful (#8 on the year), but never really reaching Harry Potter heights commercially or culturally. The worst of course, though has got to be the film no one wanted, Alice Through the Looking Glass. It grossed about 23% of its predecessor domestically and up until this paragraph you had forgotten it even existed. Hell, you probably forgot that Alice in Wonderland (2010) even existed.

So that just about wraps up 2016. Finally. Probably. Anything you'd add?

Summer 2016 in Review Part II: LOSERS and Bad Burritos

Earlier this week we discussed all the Winners of Summer 2016, which can be easily summed up as Animated Films, Horror Films, and Captain America: CIVIL WAR (2016). Now for the much more fun part - the losers. And there are quite a few of them. This summer seemed notable for its continuous string of failures. Most of these had a smaller net gross than those on the Winning List, but there's quite a bit of difference when you're budget is $17 million vs. $175 million. Now, many of these films made their budget back, but that's not really the only way we can judge cinematic failure. Some of these just didn't reach the heights of their predecessors (since 9/14 are sequels), or perhaps did well overseas, but just didn't get the spark going domestically. In fact, almost all of these elicit that reaction of "Oh yeah, that came out this year, didn't it?" Well, not only this year, but like three months ago. That's rough.

LOSERS

X-Men: Apocalypse

Budget: $178 Million
Domestic Gross: $155 million
Worldwide Gross: $541 million

Now, it's odd to call $541 million a failure the same way that people weirdly piled on Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) for grossing $200 million more than Man of Steel (2013). But the real stinger here is how relatively weak this flick was compared to the other X-men films. This was supposed to be the culmination of that universe - finally the biggest of all bads, Apocalypse on the big screen. The issue, of course, is that Thanos (and even Darkseid at this point), has had more of a build-up, Days of Future Past (2014) already felt like both the culmination and a nice bow to the universe, and generally the film sucked. While it's the #3 X-movie worldwide, it came about $200 million short of Days of Future Past, and more importantly, $240 million short of Deadpool (2016). Deadpool! How did this happen.

Ghostbusters

Budget: $144 million
Domestic Gross: $124 million
Worldwide Gross: $208 million

I think I've finally come around to stop defending this film. I wanted it to be good so bad to shut up the anti-women haters out there, but we need to face facts - this was a monumental bungling. To be fair, it's about right where a Paul Feig film should be, except a budget double that of its most comparable analogue, SPY (2015) is problematic. I might say it's at least made a significant cultural impact, at least due to its completely unwarranted controversy, although it ultimately can't stand on any sort of critical level with the original. Then again, nothing can. Despite what SONY says, its cinematic failure can't be doubted and despite one of the more talented comedic casts in recent memory, it totally comes up short.

Independence Day: Resurgence

Budget: $165 million
Domestic Gross: $102 million
Worldwide Gross: $382 million

I'm not sure I'd even call this a really awful film necessarily, but it is certainly more of the same old shit and considering the original Independence Day has become a cultural landmark, regardless of arguments over its actual quality, and grossed triple what this thing did twenty years ago (and over double worldwide before that was really a thing that people cared about), there's no question that it came up drastically short of expectations. In 1996 this was THE movie to see. In 2016 it felt like just another whatever, crap, explosions, crap at the movie theater. That's less of an issue than people might think, because the marketing made it look cool. It just really was never something people wanted.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Budget: $135 million
Domestic Gross: $81 million
Worldwide Gross: $240 million

Speaking of films nobody wanted...here you go! I'll actually respect Out of the Shadows for doubling down on ridiculousness and embracing its inner camp and appeal to weird little boys. I probably would have loved this if it came out 25 years ago. It never caught on, possibly because although the first of these new reinstallments did pretty well financially, no one seems to have swell memories of that abomination. I wouldn't even mind more of the campy side of things, but the once nice thing about all these bombs is that all these franchises may finally be dead. Probably. Probably not, to be honest.

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Budget: $170 million
Domestic Gross: $77 million
Worldwide Gross: $294 million

Here's where we start getting into the "unbelievably bad" section of films. How did Through the Looking Glass gross less than a third of its predecessor? Well, a disinterest in the novelty of 3D is a huge reason. Also, Alice in Wonderland (2010) was a clear aberration, even if its production design is pretty cool. No one has been waiting with baited breath on this one. There is no "Oh, I wonder where that story goes!?" or "I can't wait to see another wacky Johnny Depp whiteface character!" Through the Looking Glass was domestically outgrossed by The Purge: Election Year (2016). Let that settle in you for a bit.

Now You See Me 2

Budget: $85 million
Domestic Gross: $65 million
Worldwide Gross: $320 million

If only this was named Now You Don't. Does anyone remember Now You See Me (2013)? Do you remember how good that cast was? I always remember thinking, why are all these great actors in such a terrible movie. There are like two Academy Award winners and three additional nominees in that cast. What the hell is that? The movie didn't make any sense, though, and adding Harry Potter in a non-flatulence based role doesn't help anything. It actually came close to its predecessor's worldwide total, but the better question might be why a sequel existed for a film that only made $117 million domestically.

Ice Age: Collision Course

Budget: $105 million
Domestic Gross: $61 million
Worldwide Gross: $315 million

Has the Ice Age series finally run its (collision) course? The unbelievably grossed $100 million less than the previous worst-grossing film in the franchise, Continental Drift (2012). At least that one had awkward singing pirates. Usually these shitty films at least do well worldwide, although this was outgrossed by even the original Ice Age (2002), which somehow came out 14 fucking years ago. I've generally been amazed that this franchise has somehow made it to five movies, which is far more than any other major animated theatrical franchise. Is it finally dead? I'd be pretty content with a series of Scrat shorts.

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Budget: $35 million
Domestic Gross: $55 million
Worldwide Gross: $107 million

Alright, so this flick definitely outscored its budget and did pretty well worldwide for a comedy, but for a heavily marketed Seth Rogen comedy that came off the heals of his most successful live action comedy, this didn't do so well. Neighbors (2014) out-grossed this by $100 million domestically, and felt like way more of a thing than this one did. It might be slightly funnier, but Sorority Rising really delivered a pretty good sequel. For whatever reason it didn't connect as well, which is weird, because even though I'm sure no one was super-into a sequel, does it matter for a comedy? It's all about what can make you laugh, right? I think the novelty was diminished here, and even looking back on it, it's not like this was an immortal comedy that changed anyone's life. 22 Jump Street (2014) still holds that distinction.

The BFG

Budget: $140 million
Domestic Gross: $53 million
Worldwide Gross: $153 million

So now we're getting into really really rough and sad territory. On paper partnering Spielberg and Roald Dahl seems like a great idea. It's a really genuine family film full of whimsy and spectacle that got decent reviews and could have been a great time. Still, doesn't this feel like a November film rather than a July film? I don't think it could get past its CGI creepy uncanny valley awkwardness, as much as it tried, and no matter how good of an actor he is, Mark Rylance just doesn't put butts in seats. It's also not like we're in a Dahl-mania or anything. Outside of Chocolate Factory movies, I think we're over-appraising how popular he is, or at least how much book readers want to see movies, because its gross was actually right in line with other adaptations. This might have done better, at least in the long-term (and for the budget) with a Wes Anderson-style Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009) which married the material with the director really well, and while it also didn't really make its budget back, at least people are still into it seven years later. Maybe it's speaking too soon for The BFG, but how many CGI characters still look good seven years later?

Warcraft

Budget: $160 million
Domestic Gross: $47 million
Worldwide Gross: $433 million

Oh, China. You may have saved Pacific Rim (2013), and the $220 million you gave Warcraft may have saved this franchise, too. Can you really greenlight a sequel to a film that grossed a quarter of its budget in the States, though? It's a tough call for sure. They might do better to produce another film and then just focus on Chinese and worldwide marketing, with a limited US release. In many ways, Warcraft could signal an entirely new era in international filmmaking, one that pushes the International gross even farther than it does now. Or they could say "fuck it" because holy shit what a terrible movie.

Pete's Dragon

Budget: $65 million
Domestic Gross: $45 million
Worldwide Gross: $60 million

Who at Disney biffed this flick's worldwide release? By all accounts Pete's Dragon was actually a pretty great family film, and legions ahead of the atrocious 1977 version, but that never really caught on with audiences. Disney mis-read our love for the old one a bit and probably could have used some more context, or even a flashier title, because no one really remembers what the hell that old crap was. This isn't The Jungle Book (1967), which is pretty adored and well-known. Where is my all-CGI animal Robin Hood (1973) live action reboot?

Free State of Jones

Budget: $50 million
Domestic Gross: $20 million
Worldwide Gross: $20 million

I have a lot of questions about this. Why is Matthew McConaughey in this? Why did it come out in the middle of June against Independence Day and The Shallows (in fact, its stiffer competition was Finding Dory, Central Intelligence, and The Conjuring 2, all of which and the above beat it)? How did it cost $50 million to make? Wait, was it seriously in theaters for only a month? Are we overloading on slavery narratives? What does that mean for Birth of a Nation (2016)? Is that even a thing that can happen?

Ben-Hur

Budget; $100 million
Domestic Gross: $13 million
Worldwide Gross:$26 million

Now, to be fair, Ben-Hur only came out six days ago, and it'll surely make more money than this. Still, even with a really good hold it's probably looking at that $30-$35 million range domestically, and it's tough to say worldwide, but it's a real possibility it doesn't make back its absurd $100 million budget, without even taking in account marketing and theater costs. Did they really think this could make the $250 mill or so worldwide it would take to clear all its ancillary costs? That's crazy. That's so damn insane. Ben-Hur is probably THE flop of 2016, made even more painful by the fact the truly truly no one gives a shit at all. There's some sting with Independence Day and Ghostbusters tripping. There's really nothing but apathy here.

POPSTAR: Never Stop Never Stopping

Budget: Unknown
Domestic Gross: $9 million
Worldwide Gross: $9 million

So this one isn't making any more money. It did outgross MacGruber (2010)! This is that one that stings. It currently ranks as the 4,458th highest grossing film of all time and the single worst wide opening film of the Summer. Hell, seven films beat it that maxed out in less theaters, some significantly less, like a thousand theaters less. It's really proven how unviable Andy Samberg is at the Box Office, along with his Lonely Island partners and directors Akiva Schaffer and Jorma Taccone. They've had tremendous success on SNL and...their comedy albums I guess, but that's never really translated. I'm not sure how many more chances these idiots will get, and that's a shame, because I, for one, am a huge stupid fan. At least Samberg has Brooklyn Nine-Nine to crawl back to. POPSTAR was bad in a not okay way though. It's amazing to me that he was arguably one of the bigger modern SNL stars to break out, but has tripped so much when given his chance to shine in movies.

Well, folks, we've covered the Winners and Losers. What's that you say? Your favourite summer film wasn't in either of these lists?! Well, stay tuned because there are a ton of films yet to go which aren't really...good or bad. That mystical meh zone where they did kind of okay - that's the most thrilling list of all! Return, loyal readers and behold, our majesty!

Apocalypse: Through the Looking Glass

Memorial Weekend is upon us folks, and if the first weekend of May wasn't enough for you, this is really the start of your Summer Sextravaganza. It's truly the time to settle in and clench for week after week of ad nauseum blockbuster assault until you puke in ecstasy. This is a rare Memorial Day Weekend where we have two pretty big films opening against each other set to cannibalize the shit out of their audiences. On the one side of the aisle we have the eighth X-Men film in sixteen years, X-Men: Apocalypse (2016), which promises to bring the greatest X-Foe to the screen. On a not too distant side of the spectrum is Alice Through the Looking Glass (2016), which infinitely feels like a film that's dropping way too late to follow-up another movie that made seriously surprising bank but hasn't totally held up well since. Who wins this weekend? Let's overanalyze:

It's important to keep focus on the three major influences a film can have. I generally file this under a film's critical, commercial, and cultural potential. You can consider a film successful if it excels at any of these aspects, and its success grows if it can hit two at once, and if it strikes at all three then we've got a really special piece of art on our hands. Where does Apocalypse and Alice fit?

Jennifer Lawrence wrote it in her contract that the Mystique
make-up would be more flattering in each installment.

Reviews for Apocalypse are already pretty harsh, with some even calling it the worst superhero film ever. I'm cautious about reviews that are piling in and tending towards groupthink, which seems really easy to do with blockbusters meant to appeal to nerds. We tend to make up our minds quickly and fear deviation from the Internet's general consensus. I only say this because when looking at a film like Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016), everything presented in the trailers (except for that first trailer, which was so good) looked like total shit. I'm much more on board with the marketing material presented for Apocalypse, which looks equal parts campy, ridiculous, intense, awe-inspiring, and comic-accurate. This is a big turn-around for Singer, who has come full circle from X-Men (2000), which always seemed somewhat ashamed of its origins, like it was trying to disguise its pulp origins. Apparently X-Men movies need to be period films to make their gaudy costumes work, but I'm okay with that.

Commercially, I would suggest this is almost guaranteed to make bank, although this will likely come more from overseas markets. The bright colors, all-star cast (or as close as we're going to get these days), and sheer spectacle, apparently at the possible expense of story, are all tailored towards solid international play. It's already lead the world in its opening last week and could keep surging for a while without any real competition besides Alice.

Having said that, the X-Franchise seems to have a solid ceiling compared to other superhero films. This is of course acknowledging that Days of Future Past (2014)'s $747 million is a weak haul. It doesn't really have that all-encompassing Dark Knight (2008) or Avengers (2012) under its belt to secure its place in the billion-dollar club. I actually amazingly overlooked Deadpool (2016) earlier, which means this is actually the ninth X-Movie, which is still notably the highest-grossing film in the franchise.

There's a lot riding on this, and by all means all signs should point to it being the culmination of these nine films. Apocalypse is the biggest and most powerful comic book villain ever put on film in direct conflict with our heroes (a cogent argument exists for Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer [2007]'s Galactus, but c'mon - that's horseshit). In its own way this is how the X-franchise beats Marvel's Thanos and DC's Darkseid to the punch, although it doesn't quite feel as epic. It's essentially built its franchise expansiveness within its own films, using Days of Future Past as its team-up movie linking two trilogies' worth of characters. Apocalypse also practically serves as its "Heroes Fight Eachother" movie, even if we haven't seen this exact incarnation of Storm and Angel in the mix. Still, each of the Horsemen besides Psylocke have been introduced in previous films, and bouts like Storm vs. Cyclops, Beast vs. Archangel, Psylocke vs. Mystique (whose character has, for the better, been so mutated by Jennifer Lawrence's pedigree and talent, that she's become the central protagonist of the First Class Trilogy) are nearly as compelling as watching Cap wail on Iron Man.

This all makes the critical drubbing disappointing, moreso if it's actually true that it sucks balls. I think this could have had a decent cultural effect. Most X-films have had something great about them to reflect on, even if it's odd or out of place. What happens to a toad when it's struck by lightning? I'm the Juggernaut, Bitch! The two Wolverine movies, for better or worse have stuck in our memory, even if The Wolverine (2013) comes off better if not less relevant. Quicksilver's "Time in a Bottle." X2: X-Men United (2003) remains one of the best films ever, and only needed Nightcrawler's White House Attack and Magneto's prison escape to do it. I generally trust in Bryan Singer's creativity, although Jack the Giant Slayer (2013). There are a lot of superhero films this year, and most of them are pushing the genre into unfamiliar territory. I think Apocalypse's detriment, as indicated by early reviews is quite possibly that it's not pushing the genre anywhere and comes off as stale and insignificant, despite its villain's omnipotence, role as franchise apex, and cast and crew quality. The result is a simple misread of the zeitgeist. I'd be curious if it's reappraised in a few years. Or if critics are just haters.

Mia Wasikowska wandered into Beorn's shack

Let's move on to Alice Through the Looking Glass. Early reviews are pretty damn awful, and the synopsis seems completely vapid. Alice in Wonderland (2010) really came out of no where, and made a ton of money despite being a pretty worthless film. I actually like some of the concepts that abound, and the world is pretty immersive, if not full of CGI that's now aged in a way that's not great. It's solely to blame for the current glut of Disney live-action remakes, although Wonderland weirdly advanced the story while also re-making it. It's an altogether odd affair that was bolstered mostly by the 3D ticket sale boom of 2010.

I suppose that precisely, Through the Looking Glass isn't actually a live action remake, because even though it's based on the Lewis Carroll book sequel to the more famous Alice's Adventures in Wonderland (1865), it's never really had a definitive adaptation, although elements have been lifted and slotted into previous Wonderland adaptations. So, what is this, then? A sequel to a live action remake that's also a literary adaptation. Sick, bro. Is this even a franchise?

Creatively, something like Snow White & The Huntsman (2012) had a lot more going for it from a production design standpoint. Even though at the time, Wonderland was only the fifth film to crack the $1 billion mark (which it did in March, by the way - see also: every fantasy film that's been released in March ever since trying to capitalize on this "dead" time), it hasn't really entered into that cultural discussion as a beloved modern classic. At all. Through the Looking Glass doesn't seem to want to add to that conversation.

It'll almost certainly make money, but as a sort of children's fantasy adventure I think there are better options out there, namely The Angry Birds Movie (2016), which seems a much more positive affair. I suppose it's really targeting that 12-14 year old market more, possibly sliding more female than male. That same age group on the boys' side is probably watching Apocalypse this weekend, or at least buying those tickets and sneaking into Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (2016). I can't really see it winning the weekend, although based on prior investment, you actually need to lean on Alice over any X-Men movie. There might be enough goodwill there to push it through. Somehow it could be considered the broader option.

Critically and culturally I'd predict Through the Looking Glass an abject failure. With director James Bobin taking over from and putting his own spin on Tim Burton's distinctive aesthetic, I'm curious if it's more Muppets (2011) or Muppets Most Wanted (2014). If it's more the former, we're in good shape. I'm sure it will make some coin, but it feels more like Maleficient (2014) numbers than Alice in Wonderland numbers. Remember back in 2014 when we had like six $200 million movies that were all kind of successes but not really bombs? That must have been rough to write hyperbole about, Internet. Based on how this summer is sandwiching blockbusters, I think it'll hit around that mark.

So what are you seeing this weekend? Crazy shit or crazier shit? Who will win the battle for America's soul? Leave it below!

Norwegian Morning Wood's Official Summer 2016 Movie Preview

Ah we have arrived at last at the greatest time of the year - that magical period between the first weekend in May and like the second or third weekend in August where common sense is thrown to the wind and the theaters are ruled by the loud and obnoxious rather than the tepid and mundane.

Of course, if this year is to prove anything it's that Summer Release dates don't actually matter anymore. Deadpool (Feburary), Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Just-Ass (March), and The Jungle Book (a few weeks ago) have already proven that whenever a film comes out, if people want to see it, they'll see it. You see this in television as well - more and more traditional Fall to Spring seasons are eschewed by cable networks in favor of just dropping episodes when they're ready.

Well, we're clutching on to something special, dammit. Let's take a look at every single film that's opening big enough to be worth our while:

MAY

May 6th:

Captain America: Civil War

Interest Level: Damn High
Cash potential: Fucking righteous
Cultural effect: Less than Bats v. Supes, but quite a bit more positive

May 13th:

The Darkness

Interest Level: What the hell is this?
Cash potential: non-existent, even if it's counter-programming for horror lovers
Cultural effect: In two weeks after its release this will be as unknown as it was two weeks before its release. I believe in a thing called love!

Money Monster

Interest: More counter-programming for adults who like George and Julia.
Cash: Could be decent, but not huge
Culture: This looks really dumb and tonally mismanaged.

May 20th:

The Angry Birds Movie

Interest: I'm not into Angry Birds at all. It looks like it's forcing things a bit more than The LEGO Movie (2014), which took likewise unadaptable material and made something really unique.
Cash: Kids movie opening in a graveyard. Although do kids play Angry Birds?
Culture: I don't think we're getting the next Minions out of this.

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Interest: Pretty high. Seth Rogen almost never misses
Cash: It'll make like $80-100 mill and that's a success
Culture: Neighbors (2014) was absolutely hilarious and has had a decent cultural impact. This could just add to more of the same mythos.

The Nice Guys

Interest: I'm down, but not sure many more are. Summer is a weird time for this release.
Cash: I actually have a small feeling this will bomb. Not sure anyone cares.
Culture: Cult status is possible, but I think it'll be a decently small splash.

May 27th:

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Interest: For all it's ragged on, Alice in Wonderland (2010) has some cool and unique moments. It's not a good film at all, but whatevs. I don't think anyone has cared about it since its release so also whatevs.
Cash: There's no way this cracks $1 billion like the first one. For one the marketing has been way more subdued, and that was totally that early 2010s 3-D/IMAX affect. See also: Wrath of the Titans (2012).
Culture: Can't see it.

X-Men: Apocalypse

Interest: Certainly higher than Alice, but possibly more niche.
Cash: Non-Deadpool X-Men movies seem to have a ceiling. And the feeling around this isn't nearly where Days of Future Past (2014) was. I'm actually discounting this, but it won't flop.
Culture: There's lots of really cool iconography on display, although the plot seems awfully formulaic.

JUNE

June 3rd:

Me Before You

Interest: What the fuck is this shit?
Cash: There will be none
Culture: I repeat my first statement

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

Interest: I'm super on-board with this, although I'm not sure it has the buzz of some other high profile comedies like Neighbors 2 and Central Intelligence.
Cash: The Lonely Island trio have had a crazy amount of success making viral videos, SNL zeitgeist-capturing products, and have now branched out to shows like Brooklyn Nine-Nine and The LEGO Movie. Having said that, they actually have an egregiously terrible track record at the movies. This may land with a thud.
Culture: See above. Previous directorial works from either Jorma Taccone or Akiva Schaffer include Hot Rod (2007), MacGruber (2010), and The Watch (2012). I might consider the former two decent cult hits, and I have a sneaking suspicion that's where this lands as well.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Interest: I'm somehow more into this than the first go around. I think it's the emphasis on aggressive goofiness that I'm into more than any kind of self-serious gritty treatment of this material. It's more 80s cartoon than 00s cartoon (or 80s comics for that matter)
Cash: The first go around did alright and this has a bit better release date. It really finds its buck as a children's action film, of which there are virtually none of anymore. It will find its way.
Culture: The modern live action film series seems to add to mythos rather than extend it, and although there are some real wuuurd choices going on here, I'm not sure it'll really be cultural dynamite.

June 10th

The Conjuring 2

Interest: I actually JUST saw the first one, and didn't really think it was that much better or scarier or different than any other stock horror film, although I remember it getting a ton of good press back in the day when it was released. I'm not all that in to it, although if I had been more impressed with the original I might have been.
Cash: The first one made a ton on its own, but do horror sequels ever outgross their predecessors? My guess is that if the critics come around again and are like "It's sick, bro!" it'll do fine. If they be like "Nah, it's whack, dude" then it's fucked.
Culture: The Warrens have kind of penetrated pop culture, but for most normies it's still all about the ghosts or whatever is possessing whatever. Remember Annabelle (2014)? Lol

Now You See Me 2

Interest: Here's another sequel to a film that did well and was generally well-received, but did anyone really care? The cast for the first one was always way too good for its source material (boasting two Oscar winners and three more nominees - and the best left is still Mélanie Laurent).
Cash: This is another instance of a sequel to a film that did surprisingly well. There's honestly not a lot of exact competition around it (Ninja Turtles might be the closest thing that steals its dollars, and that's saying something), so it could do pretty well.
Culture: Name any one of the first film's characters! Didn't think so!

Warcraft

Interest: This is all but guaranteed to be the first really big flop of summer. I can't get into this at all. What the hell is the story here? It looks like a CGI explosion, admittedly a pretty good one, but who the hell can tell what's going on. Stop giving B-movie material huge budgets just because Lord of the Rings did well fifteen years ago.
Cash: Calling my shot now, this one totally bombs.
Culture: No one will care about Warcraft, except for possibly nerds.

June 17th:

Central Intelligence

Interest: That Dwayne Johnson fat shower is real, real weird, but putting these two in a film together is a damn solid move. I don't really find myself caring about it, but a lot more will.
Cash: No brainer. This one rules June.
Culture: I have trouble naming Kevin Hart movies, but then again, I'm not black.

Finding Dory

Interest: I have almost zero interest in this, even though Finding Nemo (2003) currently sits at #2 on my Pixar Movie list. Long-term sequels just feel weird coming out of Pixar, who is known so much for its original storytelling. I'd take something weird and experimental like Brave (2012) over Monsters University (2013) any day.
Cash: Nemo is one of Pixar's truly great moneymakers. It'll do damn fine.
Culture: This all depends on how they push it. Are we really talking much about Monsters University three years down the line? No, but Obama still watches Toy Story 3 (2010).

June 24th:

Free State of Jones

Interest: I was totally getting this confused with The Birth of a Nation. Is it weird to be turned off by too many prestigious slavery movies? The premise got me but I thought the trailer took some wind out of it. If it's good I'll see it.
Cash: Why is this coming out in late June? McConaughey pushes it towards popular territory, but no part of this feels like it deserves to be here. Counter-programming against ID4: Resurge? No doubt, and it shouldn't be too tough to make its budget back.
Culture: That kind of depends on whether it gets lost between Django Unchained (2012), 12 Years a Slave (2014), The Birth of a Nation (2016), and Harriet Tubman on the $20.

Independence Day: Resurgence

Interest: Summer '96 was so hard for ID4. I remember seeing that motherfucker on vacation, man! This is totally going the Jurassic World (2015) / Force Awakens (2015) route of going bigger and nuttier while more or less retaining the exact same storyline. I lean towards not caring.
Cash: For all the reasons above there's no real reason why this doesn't light it up. I still have a nagging feeling though, mostly because nothing really grabbed me in the trailer as must-see. It will probably do okay and not the Jurassic numbers it's hoping for.
Culture: ID4 was so pure for so many years as that one non-franchise franchise. Fuck that now. I don't think this will necessarily damage the brand, but tough to add to it.

JULY

July 1st:

The BFG

Interest: Could care less. Spielberg tends to fumble with this kind of material (namely beloved stuff that's not his), although our only real example is The Adventures of Tintin (2011). It's amazing how much that soured me. But I feel the same way about this as I did about that disaster.
Cash: Hard to say. It's coming off of ID4: R and running into Ghostbusters (2016) soon after, so it's a tight window to make a buck - and moviegoers have tended to run out of steam in July lately. Not sure anything about this screams "SEE ME!" and we might have our second major bomb of the Summer.
Culture: Doofy CGI. Nothing that won't be forgettable. Why does Spielberg have this hard-on for Mark Rylance all of a sudden?

The Legend of Tarzan

Interest: So damn low. I don't care about Tarzan. No one cares about Tarzan. See my comment above about B-movies getting A-Blockbuster treatments.
Cash: It seems to skew a bit darker and older than The BFG will, but they're still splitting that weekend. That's tough to come out with any significant cash flow.
Culture: Will we see a lot of Tarzan Halloween costumes? You know, you might have a kid factor, because I think I'd be down for a Tarzan when I was like 12 years old (actually, I got one - with dreads, bruh!), but it's not that cool for thirty-year olds to swing around their furniture screaming that they're Tarzan. Hrmm...

The Purge: Election Year

Interest: There seems like there is a ton of shit coming out every weekend this summer, and some of it is decent counter-programming, but stuff like this will totally cannibalize itself. Purge movies actually seem to be trending better, which is cool, and I didn't even know another one is coming out. I'm down, what the hell.
Cash: It's probably good. This is horror, but it's more fun horror, unlike The Conjuring 2, which is scary horror. This weekend certainly trends in a line from The BFG to this in getting more serious and adult, and that could pay off. It's certainly not running into The Secret Life of Pets (2016).
Culture: It's all the same at this point, although the second one actually did a decent job differentiating itself, and introducing a larger, bigger budgeted world. There's room to innovate here.

The Shallows

Interest: No one knows what this shit is. Move on.

July 8th:

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Interest: I'm personally super on-board. The trailers have done a really nice job, the cast is a dream of young likable people right now, and the turn presented among the principal characters is amazing.
Cash: Will this be the Summer of Efron? I'm actually curious how this differentiates itself from Neighbors 2, but I think it can break out. It seems like it has enough of a hard edge over some of the other comedies this summer.
Culture: Will 2016 give us one of the best summers for comedies, ever? The action films all look like garbage so I'm down.

The Secret Life of Pets

Interest: I'm generally on Team Zootopia (2016), which looks like the total winner in this "animated talking animals" showdown. Nothing about this looks very clever or interesting and it's a solid pass.
Cash: Finding Dory isn't that far behind, and that's all but guaranteed to be giant. Angry Birds isn't too far behind that, either, and has had a fair amount of marketing awareness. This will be the third talking animal movie of the summer and fourth on the year. In just two weeks it also runs into the much much much more well established Ice Age: Collision Course (2016). "Totally doomed" is a phrase used all too often these days...
Culture: Does anyone care?

July 15th:

Ghostbusters

Interest: So hard for this one. There's no one in the cast that I don't adore (for all the hate, Melissa McCarthy delivers more than she misses, even if her movies have missed lately), and Feig obviously has the credentials, but the honest truth is that nothing the film has put out has been all that funny. Hoping something lands, but could probably pass at this point.
Cash: The expectations are obviously huge. This is probably the major film of the summer if not the year. There's probably enough goodwill amongst those who follow all the bits from the cast to beef it up, but it probably won't win summer based on the collective meh of a lot of people like me.
Culture: It seems like it's halfway steeped in 'buster lore, and halfway doing its own thing. That's probably good. If this could just make Kate McKinnon a bankable megastar I think my work here on earth would be done.

The Infiltrator

Get outta here

July 22nd:

Ice Age: Collision Course

Interest: I obviously have no interest in Ice Age 17 or whatever. I actually, I think it's #5. How have they made five Ice Age movies? It battles the mind. I am pretty into Scrat, though. Great throwback to clever silent animation of yesteryear.
Cash: There's a reason why this is the fifth Ice Age and we haven't seen Ray Romano do shit else in like ten years.
Culture: Can you remember what happened in the last Ice Age? Was that the one with the pirates? It's all the same movie by now.

Lights Out

Interest: This is turning into a big summer for horror. This actually had a cool and creepy trailer, and if it rides that vibe, I might be down. Looks real stupid, though.
Cash: Right after The Purge 3 is rough, but it's a pretty different style of movie. Summer horror counter-programming doesn't work, however, when it strikes three times.
Culture: I don't think anyone will remember this years on down the line, but it's kind of a cool gimmick for the summer.

Star Trek Beyond

Interest: Ohhh yeah, another Star Trek is coming out this year. Do you remember how pumped up everyone was for Star Trek (2009)? How was that seven fucking years ago? I remember even getting jazzed for Into Darkness(2013) despite its dumb title, terrible obvious and unnecessary plot twist and the general apathy I had after it sandwiched itself in between Iron Man 3 (2013) and Fast & Furious 6 (2013). That's kind of where I'm at again. For some reason the property can't seem to elevate itself in its franchise wars.
Cash: It's really hard to say. I'm not sure this summer will undergo blockbuster fatigue at this point like 2014 or 2013 did, but that could spell doom for this. Depending on if people are enough into Ghostbusters to ignore this it might do okay.
Culture: Into Darkness, even if it was ultimately a pretty forgettable movie at least gave us that sweet space jump scene and a terrible character twist to endless debate and bitch about. Can Beyond hope to do the same!? We haven't really seen much at all about it (or even Idris Elba's villain. Yeah - he's in this film! He's in every film! He's like a black Samuel L. Jackson).

July 29th:

Bad Moms

Interest: What the fuck is this movie? Wait - is it some kind of raunchy comedy starring Christina Applegate, Kristen Bill, and Mila Kunis? Ahh - the trailer literally dropped a few hours ago....and was apparently pulled already. That's not a good way to make Bryan watch your movie.
Cash: Who knows. This seems like it's going for a Bridesmaids (2011) thing, which obviously did pretty well. Considering the cast of Bridesmaids is jamming out in Ghostbusters a few weeks before, the release date seems like a weird move. These should be pretty different films though. Or we're clearly looking at the greatest Ghosbusters ever.
Culture: Got me. Could be something.

Jason Bourne

Interest: Next to nothing. I love how they dropped Damon for Jeremy Renner, made a shitty movie, realised he sucked, and are now trying to circle back. Man, the Bourne story just feels soooo finished.
Cash: It's really really weird how the Bourne Franchise became a franchise. I remember seeing the first one alone in theaters and feeling like I was its only fan. Now it's legit, albeit with a definite ceiling. There's no real reason for audiences to feel like they need to come back, though, and it could bomb pretty bad.
Culture: Bourne's shaky cam set pieces really ruined action films for a long time. Let's avoid that.

AUGUST

August 5th:

The Founder

Interest: Decent. Can you tell that Mike Keaton was sore after not getting the Oscar he should have? He's crushing these kind of high profile roles. This is totally The Social Network (2010) for McDonald's, but who cares, that was a damn strong trailer.
Cash: Again, the release date seems off. Shouldn't this be an October picture? Sure, the non-Fincher here is a whole bit lighter, but it feels like this gets buried, unless its good reviews bring the old people who have been neglected all summer - having only received the maddening Money Monster a few months ago.
Culture: Could be pretty high. A good portrayal in what looks like an unconventional biopic that's relatively high profile can make a splash. The issue I can see is if McDonald's is glorified, but do average people really care about that? I had McDonald's in the past 10 days and I hate their food.

Nine Lives

This is some kind of Kevin Spacey / Jennifer Garner cat movie.

Suicide Squad

Interest: Super high. This flick has had some of the best marketing ever. Hopefully it rises past Batman v. Superman's terribly bad will and is actually a rad picture.
Cash: There's certainly a market for this anti-Superhero movie, and if Deadpool proved anything, it's that audiences want more. This could rake it in and coast through August.
Culture: All the pieces are there. Personal investment is high, the iconography is strong, and the cast and performances seem damn solid. I'm all in.

August 12th:

Florence Foster Jenkins

GTFO

Pete's Dragon

Interest: So damn low. I don't really care about the original movie, and this feels really shoe-horned. Is he the one who puffs by the sea? No, that's Puff the Magic Dragon. Is that the same thing? You gotta give me something here.
Cash: There might be enough nostalgia here to lift it up, but it just doesn't feel on anyone's radar, especially for a live action adaptation on the heels of The Jungle Book, which was super successful. Bomb.
Culture: Nope.

Sausage Party

Interest: This seems really weird. I'm not totally into the concept or the parody of animated "Secret World" films with adult overtones. I was actually looking forward to this out of intrigue, but I'm not sure that it has the wit to back its crudeness.
Cash: There's almost no way this is profitable. It's so niche. It belongs on Adult Swim or something, which is influential and popular, but not in the sort of broad sense you need to sell tickets.
Culture: If anything, this could leave a huge dent in our culture for being really super weird, but I'm not sure enough thought leaders will see it for that to matter.

Spectral

No one knows what this is. I mean, seriously, you don't have a poster, yet? This sounds super-August with notes of Skyline (2010).

August 19th

Ben-Hur

Interest: Do I really have to talk about these last four? These are absolute abominations that no one will see. But Ben-Hur is damn sure trying, so we ought to include the weekend.
Cash: Not for all my pocket change.
Culture: Well, the original isn't that well known or culturally significant, so surely the remake will fare better.

Kubo and the Two Strings

What the fuck is this shit? Actually this trailer is kind of legit. It might have a shot with the right marketing.

The Space Between Us

Alright, so admittedly I need to research some of these shitty movies. This trailer is also kind of cool. I'm all about original sci-fi, although that's pretty horseshit, because that doesn't a good movie make. But I'm curious about this, which probably won't light up the box office but could make a decent late August splash if marketed right.

War Dogs

Lastly we have a weird Todd Phillips war profiteering dramedy starring Miles Teller and Jonah Hill. I don't care if this movie exists or not. It has the production acumen, although I think Phillips struggles when the tone isn't explicit. He seems to have trouble finding the moral sweet spot between elucidating boorish behavior and condoning it. His movies end up a pretty dark shade of gray.

So that's it. As of now you actually don't need to see any movies this summer because we've listed them all here. And just for finality's sake, let's give an official list of my "Definite Want to Probably Spend Money On":

Civil War
Neighbors 2
Nice Guys
Never Stop Never Stopping
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
The Founder
Suicide Squad
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Space Between Us

There. You only need to see nine movies and your life will matter.