NMW's 89th Annual Live-Blogged Oscar Results Show!

Stay Tuned at 8:30 pm New York Time for all the fun and pedantry!

For the record, here are my predictions, dated 31 January, 2017.

11:44 pm: Listen, the rest goes in chronological order, but three and a quarter hours in I thought I ought to make the note that should be obvious - be sure to refresh this page after each category for my inane, angry thoughts over my failed predictions. America!

8:31 pm: Ugh. Over "Got the Feeling" or whatever this horrible Song of Summer 2016 was. I can never even remember its generic title.

8:35 pm: You'd think Jimmy Fallon was hosting.

8:36 pm: So quick for a Mel Gibson crack.

8:38 pm: HAHAHA even quicker for a Kimmel / Damon crack. That's really the best thing Kimmel has going for him in his show, so it's pretty natural that continues.

8:41 pm: Jimmy's nailing the "None of us saw any of these films" schtick which is, c'mon - dead on.

8:43 pm: Love Hollywood's love of itself. And Meryl Streep. But that's also lame criticism. What, should Hollywood not love itself?

8:51 pm: Alright, let's go. Supporting Actor.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Actual Winner: Mahershala Ali
Score: 1/1

First category, first not-really-a-surprise despite quite a few upsets in the lead-up awards. This always seemed Ali's to lose, and it's great that he's finally validated here. Ali's had a great year with this and Daredevil and I'm sure other stuff. I'd be excited to see what else this guy can do. So far largely apolitical, but I'm sure that will shift soon.

8:56 pm:

Best Makeup and Hairstying

A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Predicted Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Actual Winner: Suicide Squad
Score: 1/2

Is it "Ooo-vay?" I've been saying "oh-v" forever. Well, we're here. Oscar-winning Suicide Squad. This is a move I don't think anyone saw, because generally this ought to at least go towards the big blockbuster that everyone liked. I suppose Diablo and Harley get it. Or is this really for dressing up Jared Leto? Ugh.

Best Costume Design

Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Predicted Winner: Jackie
Actual Winner: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Score: 1/3

I almost never look up during the ceremony. 90% of my time tonight is spent re-italicizing movie titles when my HTML format breaks. Listen, one for three ain't great. This also seemed like a race between Jackie and La La Land, but I guess that didn't happen. This bodes well for Fantastic Beasts' efforts towards Production Design and the first chink in La La Land's armor? Stay tuned!

9:08 pm:

Best Documentary

Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

Predicted Winner: O.J.: Made in America
Actual Winner: O.J.: Made in America
Score: 2/4

Okay, I feel a bit better. Life Animated should have known to throw some Black People in there. I just saw O.J. this past weekend and it was one of the most engrossing eight hours of my life. I still can't really understand how it's even allowed to be here - totally a TV mini-series despite its limited theatrical run. It's now the longest-running Oscar winner ever, and good on the Academy for still recognizing the great film. Also it's totally insane that O.J. is still in the news. That trial really is something, isn't it?

9:14 pm: Nice cut to Hailee Steinfeld for some reason when the Rock wants to sing from Moana.

9:16 pm: Time to do some hardcore phone checking.

9:17 pm: Listen, this just ISN'T "Let it Go."

9:27 pm: I need to check my timestamps from other years. Four categories down in the first hour. SWEET.

Best Sound Editing

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Actual Winner: Arrival
Score: 2/5

La La Land has yet to win, and the Arrival nod here isn't necessarily surprising - it's very much in line with where this category has gone in the past, but Hacksaw just felt like the more natural choice. Tonight is already a foregone shitshow - I'm going to predict that I won't be anywhere near my best prediction year. Also notable that La La Land is already 0/2.

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Score: 2/6

So, Hacksaw does come out with a sound win, but not the category many and myself predicted! This is an important award - I have to win out to match my best year ever and La La Land now cannot match Titanic (1997), Ben Hur (1969) and Return of the King (2003) for highest Oscar count, since its 14 nominations include two in the same category for best song.

9:36 pm: Vince Vaughn is at a weird time in his life. Putting that out there. Good on ya, Jackie Chan.

9:41 pm: Fuck Mark Rylance. BFG my ass.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis
Actual Winner: Viola Davis
Score: 3/7

Thank goodness for the gimmes. Good on Viola, and good on making this category a slam dunk for terrible predictors like myself. Hey - if I can just cruise through seventeen more categories we're good!

9:55 pm: This is when the ceremony really digs in and refuses to end. No one in America or the world cares about what Charlize Theron thinks about The Apartment (1960).

9:56 pm: I looked up last year - at this point we had gotten through eleven categories and I was 7/11. UGHHHH

9:57 pm:

Best Foreign Language Film

Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

Predicted Winner: Toni Erdmann
Actual Winner: The Salesman
Score: 3/8

This is now actually a big award, since the director of The Salesman was unable to come to the country because of Trump. No excuses, because up to today I still thought Erdmann had the populist edge, but yeah, it became more and more obvious that this was all Salesman. Fuck! Fuck The Salesman. I identify with your plight, pro. But fuck this shit, this year has been absolutely awful so far.

10:05 pm: What the hell is this Jack the Ripper Time Travel show?

10:09 pm:

Best Animated Short Subject

"Blind Vaysha"
"Borrowed Time"
"Pear Cider and Cigarettes"
"Pearl"
"Piper"

Predicted Winner: "Borrowed Time"
Actual Winner: "Piper"
Score: 3/9

You gotta be fucking kidding me - Pixar / Disney never wins when I think they're actually going to. "Piper" was the long-time favorite here but I never bought in. This is shaping up to be a decently awful night for me.

10:12 pm:

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Predicted Winner: Zootopia
Actual Winner: Zootopia
Score: 4/10

Jeez this banter is stilted. Good win for Zootopia. It's crazy what Disney has been able to do in this category lately. I'm really glad Kubo didn't rise up, even if it probably deserved to.

10:14 pm:

Best Production Design

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

Predicted Winner: Arrival
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 4/11

This is fairly undeserved for La La Land. This seemed like it'd be Fantastic Beasts' if anything now. A lot of people out there thought this would be the one to lose it, although now that La La avoids the shut-out, will it keep rolling on from here? I haven't predicted it for much more than the obvious categories coming up. This ceremony is still a huge question mark.

10:22 pm: I want to note that I've been YouTubing Norm MacDonald O.J. jokes on every commercial, song, and Cheryl Boone Isaacs speech since Made in America won.

10:32 pm: See, we can't go 10 minutes here between awards.

Best Visual Effects

Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Winner: The Jungle Book
Actual Winner: The Jungle Book
Score: 5/12

I always thought this was a given, although it seemed to stump a lot of pundits who for some reason thought it might lean towards the horribly misguided Rogue One. This is probably the most well-deserved award of the night and could very well save my ass.

10:36 pm: Best presenters of the night - Seth Rogen and Michael J. Fox.

Best Film Editing

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Score: 5/13

Whelp. I'm boned. So damn boned. La La Land just is not sweeping, and somehow Hacksaw Ridge is raking up some nods here! I don't think it's actually nominated for too much other awards tonight, actually, but there is apparently some love in the room for this thing. It's bizarre. This flick did nothing for me. I'm cautious about even Moonlight's chances now.

10:43 pm:

Best Documentary Short Subject

"Extremis"
"4.1 Miles"
"Joe's Violin"
"Watani: My Homeland"
"The White Helmets"

Predicted Winner: "Extremis
Actual Winner: "The White Helmets"
Score: 5/14

Okay, whatever, fuck this. Who knows how to call these categories. O.J. did it.

10:49 pm:

Best Live Action Short

"Ennemis Entreniers"
"La Femme et le TGV"
"Silent Nights"
"Sing"
"Timecode"

Predicted Winner: "Timecode"
Actual Winner: "Sing"
Score: 5/15

Do American directors make short films anymore? Ever? I think I was mistaking "Timecode" for Timecop (1994). If I win out, I'm going 14/24, which is dismal. This could be my worst year ever, which is really depressing. Deeper in this race it really seemed like it was "Sing" or nothing. Maybe it's foolish to put out predictions a week after nominations are announced, but I'll conform to that challenge!

10:51 pm: I'm sure I'm the only one who googled what year Timecop was made during this year's ceremony.

10:59 pm:

Best Cinematography

Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 6/16

Well that's a relief. No Lion upset tonight. We should all strive to pronounce La La Land the way Javier Bardem pronounces La La Land. There's still a lot of potential to go here I suppose. This was all that evening one-take I assume. Also this dude is totally an uglier Brad Pitt.

11:14 pm: I definitely just thought Sam Jackson said the best movies "leave you coming." Okay then. Humming. Humming, people.

Best Original Score

Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 7/17

I'm wondering if they left all the La La Land favored categories for later in the ceremony so it seems like it's won a ton. Anyway, maybe I can break 10!

11:16 pm:

Best Original Song

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Predicted Winner: "City of Stars"
Actual Winner: "City of Stars"
Score: 8/18

Feeling a little better. Slightly, but all these are obvious now. "City of Stars" is as good a song that's been attached to a film for a long time, and it's great that it's emerged through a bunch of tracks that in any other year would have been fearsome to compete with.

11:20 pm: An already long ceremony is about to go till 4 am honouring all we lost last year. Too dark?

11:29 pm: The ceremony really should be only Matt Damon jokes.

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Predicted Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Actual Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Score: 9/19

Alright, I'll admit this was huge. A huge win. FOR ME. Finally, the writer of The Adventures of Rocky and Bulwinkle (2000) has an Academy Award. Good on Kenny Lonergan, whose career has wildly oscillated between good and shit.

11:33 pm: Aww, good for you, Amy Adams, you got to come to the ceremony anyway. I'm sure that makes you feel great!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Moonlight
Actual Winner: Moonlight
Score: 10/20

And just like that I'm back up to a cool 50%. Only big awards left - at this rate my running prediction is probably 13/24, maybe 12/24 - I have no confidence over my Best Acting predictions. Also, great job Barry Jenkins for sneaking one for Moonlight, which for a moment looked like it didn't have much going for it. It's possible he still gets Best Director, but this is likely a consolation prize.

11:37 pm: Do you kind of feel like Kimmel's chasing that Ellen DeGeneres Pizza selfie moment that was completely sublime in 2014? Or just acknowledging that the best way to win over this starving crowd is feeding them all night?

11:42 pm:

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Chazelle
Actual Winner: Chazelle
Score: 11/21

This is all kinds of amazing. Good for Damien. It's almost a guarantee now that La La Land goes on to win BP instead of splitting like this category has done with the big one over the past few years. I know a few were predicting Barry Jenkins for that precise reason. Now, though, things appear to be falling into place.

11:47 pm: I'll admit that although this ceremony is somehow taking longer, I'm very appreciative of the avoidance of going through all the actors and all the Best Picture nominees and all the other crap this ceremony usually fills itself with.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck
Actual Winner: Casey Affleck
Score: 12/22

It'd be cool to see Vigio Morgenstein get an Oscar some day. BUT IT IS NOT THIS DAY! So, that was scary for a bit but I'm not guaranteed at least 50%. I really thought Denzel had that for a second, but I guess Casey pulls it off. I'm glad I stuck with the original frontrunner pick. Never doubt! Until it fails, which it does all the time. I'm pretty confident about coasting from here on out.

11:54 pm: I wonder how Halle Berry feels about seeing her 2003 self up there winning an Oscar. Not like she looks any worse, but like, that was definitely a different career back then.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone
Actual Winner: Emma Stone
Score: 13/23

Huppert was visibly pissed. Great for Emma. Now Jonah Hill really needs that Oscar. Leo looks like a bronze god. I'm pumped that my tally has rallied back from a whole big steaming pile of shit.

12:03 pm: Amazing that those two are still kicking around, looking pretty good. Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway, for future, non-live readings of this post.

Best Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
FINAL SCORE: 14/24

Amazing, if not completely predictable win for La La Land, which finishes with seven Oscars for the night - pretty well-rounded, too. More importantly, I finish with 14/24, which in my eight years of doing this, is the fourth time I've done so. The technical categories this year really tripped me up, as they did somewhat with Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) last year. That said, I went 5/15 for the first...

HOLY SHIT Warren Beatty pulled a Steve Harvey

soooo 12:12 pm: yeah. Yeah, this is nuts. I'm going to keep everything up here I was mindlessly writing when I thought La La Land had won - which it's totally insane that it didn't, but time to make some adjustments!

Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Moonlight
FINAL SCORE: 13/24

Jimmy doing a nice improv here. And I'm down to 13/14, which I nailed in 2015. Not great. I was about to say I went 5/15 for the first fifteen categories and then 9/9, but make that 8/9, which kind of sucks. What more can you ask for? I suppose not have 800-year old Warren Beatty reading the Best Picture Winner? It's kind of awesome that young people will now know who Warren Beatty is. This is stunning. Not nearly as stunning as Hacksaw Ridge winning for Editing, but pretty crazy.

I don't think I could have done much better. If I had made these predictions today I probably would have gone with "Sing", "Piper", and The Salesman, so maybe that pushes me to 16, but that's still kind of pathetic. This is all what makes the Oscars an exciting event - no one can really predict this shit. So, a hard-fought 13/24 this year to really accentuate my long-term average. Here's to next year!

One More Oscar Preview

Well folks, the long Academy Awards Season is finally coming to a head this Sunday, and although we won't be trolling through every category there is, we thought this a fine opportunity to slog through the most prestigious race, the Best Picture category. We can at least begin to examine what makes these films tick and what their odds are in the major categories. With nine mostly okay films to dig through, they represent a good chunk of this year's nominations. So let's go from least likely to most likely to win Best Picture:

Hint: we'll cover this soon.

#9: Arrival

Nominations: 9
Predicted Wins: Production Design

Arrival is weirdly treading water between great and irrelevant more and more, with some people really digging it, but most seemingly disinterested in its brilliant screenplay. I think it deserves consideration for Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography, but it's leaning towards neither. Production design tends to be a bit more friendly to films like this, but director Villeneuve has little history with the Academy, and considering this couldn't even carry Amy Adams to a nomination, the Academy appears to have little love for it.

#8: Hell or High Water

Nominations: 3
Predicted Wins: 0

I saw this back in December and sort of liked it, although that passion has grown quite a bit since then. This is in many ways the ultimate underdog film - a Best Picture nominee without much of a following, pedigree, or nominations under its belt, but almost universally loved by those who have experienced it. Love residue for Jeff Bridges was burned off with Crazy Heart (2009), and despite work here equal to anything he's ever done, his old grizzled cowboy shtick is wearing thin. The real stars are Ben Foster and Chris Pine, who haven't gotten much love or notoriety at all. There's virtually no chance of the flick winning a statue.

#7: Hidden Figures

Nominations: 3
Predicted Wins: 0

Hidden Figures gets a lot of points by virtue of being mainstream popular and earning that SAG Ensemble win. Still, that's more a product of every other film here not really being an ensemble at all, yet still widely respected by the acting branch of the Academy. Hidden Figures, despite all its Oscar bait wrapped up in a decently non-bait-y package, feels like it came on too late, with perhaps too much saccharine appeal rather than offering the hard brutal look at race relations the Academy seems to favor both this year and in the past.

#6: Hacksaw Ridge

Nominations: 6
Predicted Wins: Sound Editing

This is a lock for Sound Editing, which has gone to the sort of action film with high art pedigree like Hacksaw Ridge every year since forever. Its nominations are strong, and in surprisingly redemptive categories like Andrew Garfield's Best Actor and Mel Gibson's Best Director. It also fits that popularity bill that Hidden Figures hit (odd bedfellows for sure), but if it didn't work for American Sniper (2014), which seems to be the easiest modern equivalent, it won't work for Hacksaw.

#5: Fences

Nominations: 4
Predicted Wins: Viola Davis, Best Actress

This could easily become two wins if Denzel's surge maintains and he upsets Casey Affleck, but there just isn't enough else around this film to warrant a Best Picture nomination. It's all excellent heady family drama stuff, but it's also very much a filmed play, which is fine for story and all, but not really for best picture. There's some chance that the acting branch just loves every great actor involved here, but it doesn't have the wide appeal to go along with the acting love that even lesser nominees have here.

#4: Lion

Nominations: 6
Predicted Wins: 0

I didn't call any category for Lion, but more and more it's looking like it could through down some upsets, notably for Dev Patel in Supporting Actor and in Cinematography. It's weirdly somehow the hottest film going into the Award ceremony, but really, no one has watched it, and there's nothing exceptionally sexy about the premise. Sure the little Indian kid flashback thing worked for Slumdog Millionaire (2008) - like, crazily good, but that had such a sexy premise. Sexy premises are a thing! Shut up! Just because your mom likes it doesn't mean it's suddenly an Oscar frontrunner.

#3: Manchester by the Sea

Nominations: 6
Predicted Wins: Casey Affleck, Best Actor; Best Original Screenplay

It's always fascinating to see the sort of narratives that develop around films, particularly when ya'll have to vote for them. La La Land has embodies this sort of relentless, the point of dick-sucking, optimism, while Manchester by the Sea has this endless aura of bummerville. By all means it's pretty good but also an endless depressing spiral. That's the driving narrative here, and it'll be hard to escape. Still, the momentum it once had will be hard to stop, and although Casey Affleck is less a given than he once was, I'm convinced that La La Land is mortal and Manchester will steal at least one award from it.

#2: Moonlight

Nominations: 8
Predicted Wins: Mahershala Ali, Best Supporting Actor; Best Adapted Screenplay

Moonlight is the closest thing that can threaten La La Land, and it's arguably even more well-liked by critics, although there's just no way that it pulls the insider upset. Ali is not nearly as strong as one might have thought months ago, with Dev Patel threatening and Aaron Taylor-Johnson upsetting him at the Golden Globes (though not nominated here). There are a lot of areas where it can gain traction, though, including Cinematography, which more and more seems like that one category where La La Land will lose its sweep. La La wins more than Moonlight loses Best Picture

#1: La La Land

Nominations: 14 in 13 categories
Predicted Wins: Emma Stone, Best Actress; Cinematography, Editing, Score, Song, Sound Mixing, Director, Picture

Nine wins might be a bit too much, but the only one I have doubts on since my initial predictions is that pesky Cinematography I keep bitching about. There's a lot going for this, mostly the fact that it totally sucks up to the Hollywood dream. I'll contend that it is in fact about a bit more than that - that its themes of dreams coming true are actually more complex and universal. The point is, there seems to be a coherent La La Land backlash that I'm not on board with, and you better believe that Hollywood isn't on board with. It doesn't even prop up actors at the expense of executives or hold any kind of damning commentary on the faults of the system or industry, while extolling living in Los Angeles as a special and magical way of life. In short, yeah, this will win everything. I still liked it, everyone did, it'll win Best Picture.

We have just a few short days left! Which films are you predicting to win?!

The New ULTRA-Accurate Oscar Predictions

Now that we've let the Oscar Nominations settle for a bit, it's time once again to call out all 24 categories with these, the most scientifically accurate, well-researched, and validated predictions you will ever see on the Internet. To be honest I usually get this about 60% right. Oh how I pine for 2014 when I ran the table. Here's where I've finished ever since starting this madness:

2010: 12/24

2011: 14/24

2012: 16/24

2013: 14/24

2014: 20/24

2015: 13/24

2016: 14/24

Why do I feel like I'll hit 14 again? This is an interesting year - La La Land is the easy pick to run the table, although I don't really think it will. I'm confident that will hurt me. Last year I doubted Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) to my bane. Let's get in this:

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck

This is suddenly a three-way race between Denzel, who won the SAG, Gosling who is riding La La Land sweeper status, and Lil' Affleck, the presumptive forerunner. I think Casey will hold despite having all of the sexual assault accusations that prevented Nate Parker from being in contention. I'm sure that has nothing to do with race. America is fun. Manchester has enough goodwill and enough "not going to win anything else"-ness that I'm confident here.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone

This is a clear one between Huppert, who won the Golden Globes and Stone, who just won the SAG. Huppert was the frontrunner until late. The Academy tends to fawn over young starlet It Girls in this category, and Emma Stone weirdly feels due, even though she's really young. Her relatability is approaching J-Law levels, and this is as much for Birdman (2014) as La La Land. That audition scene will be her highlight, even if it's overracted more than anything.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali

This has always been Ali's to lose, with a pretty high profile 2016. Aaron Taylor-Johnson for some reason snuck away with the Golden Globe, but failed to get a nomination here. The major competition is Jeff Bridges, but there's a feeling that he's already been honored and Hell or High Water, although fantastic, isn't really his best. Ali through and through.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis

This is possibly the most expected Acting Category win, which is fantastic for the oft-seen but underappreciated Viola Davis. It'd be amazing if her and Denzel could both pull off awards for Fences (not to mention a 3/4 Black win), but I don't think he will. There's not much other competition here - Michelle is probably the other contender but this is the one category that's never been in much precursor dispute.

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

Predicted Winner: Manchester by the Sea

This is a tough one - La La Land can't win everything, right? That's my thought, although I'm sure I'll eat my words come Oscar Night. Manchester is the next obvious choice, and Screenplay always gets a bit wonky. If it's a sweep it'll go, but these films are so diametrically opposed I doubt the votes will split. People who hated La La Land will go for Manchester. It's probably a better screenplay, anyway. Damn I'm doubting myself now. I still think this is the category to stumble and get upset, since the love for La La is far from pure.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Moonlight

Moonlight may not end up winning too much else being in the shadow of La La Land, but without that competition here, the path is clear towards victory. Its difficult three-part structure adapted by Barry Jenkins from Barry Jenkins' own unproduced play is also the best of the lot, even if Arrival's twisty revealing irony is although smooth and breathtaking. The Academy rarely goes for sci-fi. Moonlight is a perfect winner here.

Best Cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

Predicted Winner: La La Land

There's a lot of excitement here - after years and years of Deakins vs. Lubezki, with Lubz winning every time, the veteran here is Rodrigo Prieto for Silence, although it's only his second nomination. Everyone else is a rookie, but despite the breathtaking Arrival and emotionally piqued Moonlight, La La Land did pull off sunshine, darkness, sunsets, and long takes that the Academy loves. I'll try to lean into the sweep, which just seems inevitable now.

Best Film Editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

Predicted Winner: La La Land

Getting bored, yet? Arrival nabbed the ACE Eddie Award for Drama, but La La Land's win for comedy in addition to its presumptive sweep gives it a clean edge here. Hacksaw Ridge is actually getting some weird love here as well, and there was enough goodwill for that flick that it could upset here, but La La is the by and large safe pick, even if there wasn't actually that much editing involved. Final scene, perhaps, which is masterful.

Best Visual Effects

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Winner: The Jungle Book

I would actually be deeply saddened if The Jungle Book doesn't come away with this. For all its hype, it totally lived up to the expectation. Doctor Strange is immersive, but also expressly fiction. It's intriguing to see the animated Kubo here, which could bode well for its Animated Feature chances. There's not really a question, though, that The Jungle Book dominated, and the Academy tends to disfavor superhero films anyway.

Best Production Design

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

Predicted Winner: Arrival

I'm going out on a weird limb here - Production Design hasn't lined up with Best Picture in a while, usually going to reward something a bit off-kilter. It's a place that's a bit friendlier to bigger, crazier films, although in the past five years, three have gone to more domestic pictures like Lincoln (2012), The Great Gatsby (2013), and The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014). Hail, Caesar! would be the obvious pick in this case, but this is also a great opportunity to acknowledge Arrival, which despite popular opinion, will likely otherwise go home empty-handed.

Best Costume Design

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Predicted Winner: Jackie

I haven't gotten this category right in four years. Here's another La La Land anti-sweep prediction though, since the Academy always favors period over modern, and there's nothing really special about La La's outfits, except for maybe Gosling's 80s jackets (if they don't have scorpions on them I'm not interested), and the sweet primary colors in "Someone in the Crowd." Jackie has love but nothing really in the front - this is the kind of bold prediction that earns me that 61% accuracy.

Best Makeup and Hairstying

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

Predicted Winner: Star Trek Beyond

My rationale is that everyone hates Suicide Squad (can you imagine the "Academy Award-winning" moniker on the DVD covers? Is that anachronism?), and no one's heard of A Man Called Ove. Star Trek Beyond didn't really get enough credit for being one of the Summer's best blockbusters (the muddled villain was actually enough to bring it down a few notches), but this is a nice consolation.

Best Original Score

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

Predicted Winner: La La Land

Micah Levi for Jackie has gotten a lot of love this season, and Thomas Newman is looking at his 14th nomination for Passengers, but the former will surely win at some point and the latter film no one really likes (nor has a memorable score). It's been a while since a musical actually won this, dating back to Pocahontas (1995), the last live action musical being Purple Rain (1984). Does Purple Rain count as a musical? La La Land is the presumptive winner until proven otherwise.

Best Original Song

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land

“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls

“City of Stars,” La La Land

“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story

“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Predicted Winner: "City of Stars"

Yes, Lin Manuel-Miranda could become the youngest EGOT with a win here, but "How Far I'll Go" is no "Let it Go." Timberlake could also become an Oscar winner, and although "Can't Stop the Feeling" was way more popular than Trolls, let's get real. "City of Stars" has that magic touch you need in this category - not a cash grab song but the heart of the whole movie. No brainer.

Best Sound Editing

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

The last time this award went to a non-action oriented film was Hugo (2011), and you could make a solid argument that it's not even non-action oriented. Other than that, this virtually always goes to some kind of war film or action blockbuster. The next closest we get is The Ghost and the Darkness (1996), which again, definitely straddles some lines. La La Land is obviously the frontrunner again, but it'd be really breaking with tradition to win. Hacksaw Ridge seems to fit in here nicely.

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Predicted Winner: La La Land

Chazelle's last movie, Whiplash (2014) won here two years ago, and La La Land fits in well with Les Misérables (2012), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), Dreamgirls (2006), Ray (2004), and Chicago (2002). There's almost no doubt here.

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

Predicted Winner: Zootopia

There's actually some life in Kubo, but Disney has won two out of the past three years, and Zootopia is just as good if not better than Big Hero 6 (2014) and probably on par with Frozen (2013) in quality, if not quite the cultural phenomenon. There's not really a question, although this category has seen its share of upsets lately, though mostly in down years for the medium.

Best Documentary

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America

13th

Predicted Winner: O.J.: Made in America

Three of these docs ostensibly deal with race in America, and all three had a lot of late-year love, but none as much as O.J. At 467 minutes it's the longest feature ever nominated, although I don't even know how this TV miniseries got in contention. It did have a limited theatrical run over a few days last May, which is bonkers, but none of that should detract from how good it is, along with the legitimacy a win would give the excellent ESPN 30 for 30 brand. OJ was big in 2016 for some reason, maybe with our reality TV star President we had to look back at the original reality TV fiasco - a story so unbelievable we had to watch again and think, "We could have never been that insane, right?"

Best Foreign Language Film

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

Predicted Winner: Toni Erdmann

There's not too much of a debate on this. Erdmann got a lot of mainstream love here in the states and that should be enough to put it over the edge. Then again, I hear that A Man Called Ove has great makeup and hairstyling!

Best Documentary Short Subject

"Extremis"

"4.1 Miles"

"Joe's Violin"

"Watani: My Homeland"

"The White Helmets"

Predicted Winner: "Extremis"

I've actually heard of Extremis, so I'm going with that one. That's not just from Iron Man. I'd be curious if Watani or White Helmets gets a surge from their sudden relevancy with the anti-refugee ban, but I would also garner that no one has heard of these films or knows what they are actually about.

Best Animated Short Subject

"Blind Vaysha"

"Borrowed Time"

"Pear Cider and Cigarettes"

"Pearl"

"Piper"

Predicted Winner: "Borrowed Time"

Pixar's Piper is the frontrunner, but Disney and Pixar shorts actually rarely win this, even when they're spectacular. It much more often goes to something weird, foreign, or obscure. Borrowed Time splits the difference well - a more adult film from some former Pixar people that gained some notoriety when it dropped. I actually didn't think it was all that great, and I can see a cool premise like Blind Vaysha pulling it off, but for now let's go with that.

Best Live Action Short

"Ennemis Entreniers"

"La Femme et le TGV"

"Silent Nights"

"Sing"

"Timecode"

Predicted Winner: "Timecode"

"Silent Nights" and "Sing" come from a production studio with a solid amount of Oscar history, and "Ennemis Entreniers" is the frontrunner right now, but "Timecode" is defintiely the coolest and also gaining the most traction. This is also a fucking crapshoot.

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Chazelle

See?! I saved the best categories for last so you get to scroll down and here my thoughts on "Borrowed Time." Jenkins is solid runner-up and Villeneuve ought to get this at some point (although similarly intense folk like Kubrick, Tarantino, and P.T. Anderson have never won this). Chazelle is ridiculously young, but in a year without much other fearsome competition (This is Jenkins' second feature, Lonergan's third), it's in the bag.

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Predicted Winner: La La Land

While it may seem like a foregone conclusion, keep in mind that Moonlight is still pretty popular, actors seem to love Fences, and Hidden Figures just won the SAG for best ensemble. Let's get real, though. No film panders to Hollywood like La La Land, and you simply don't get 14 nominations without winning Best Picture. This is set to run the train.

What do you think? Will my predictions hold up? Will La La Land sweep in all categories I doubted it? Will "Piper" emerge triumphant? Stay tuned for my annual LIVE BLOG February 26th, 2017 at 8:00 pm EST for my championship winning predictions to come true!