Toys Come to Life Weekend

Hey there. So we used to discuss the cultural, critical, and commercial prospects of each new film each and every Friday around here. So, that - but the short version because there isn't all that much to say beyond the fact that this weekend bizarrely features both the adorable and horrific aspects of toys coming to life. Toy Story 4 (2019) and Child's Play (2019), everyone!

So, these toys are immortal, right? Will we eventually reach
a Highlander-type situation?

I am a Pixar fan because I am a living, breathing human being with a heart, but the studio isn't without their problems. I just mentioned while talking about Secret Life of Pets 2 (2019) that the studio tends to be averse to the more cartoony aspects of animation, relies on cheap tearjerkers as excuses for depth (despite them mostly being earned, which is why their movies are genuinely good), and lately have traded in original stories for easy sequels that just don't the same panache.

And then they crank out COCO (2017) which is the most underrated Pixar movie ever, but also completely out of the Pixar tearjerker playbook. Sad doesn't automatically equal great, although like I said, COCO's tears are mostly earned, so it works.

I tried to get into their sequels, I really did, but they're just not all that good. I don't know why they've decided to go back to the well so often, either. They had a $200+ million streak from Monsters, Inc. (2001) to UP (2009). Even original films since like Brave (2012) and Inside Out (2015) have made consistent bank while the Cars series has had diminishing returns (but way more merchandisable than Princess Merida). Still, the big nostalgia jerkers - the Toy Stories, Finding Dory (2017), Incredibles 2 (2018) - those are making the kind of money that really gets attention. It's not about $200+ million anymore. It's about hitting that Billion Dollar worldwide mark.

So despite having the most satisfying cathartic ending of any movie in history here we are at Toy Story 4. Great. Half the original cast is dead. I honestly haven't even been interested in the trailer. My life if so complete with Toy Story 3 (2010) being the endpoint. I'm trying not to just be a whiner but I'm moved on. I can't even conceive of another adventure for these characters that would feel momentous enough to earn another outing. I'm glad they got Keanu Reeves. I'm sure he's great. I can't get hyped for this.

On the other end of the aisle is the new Child's Play which is totally a thing I didn't realise was happening until I randomly looked at what new releases we had this week. I knew this movie was coming, but Friday? Holy shit! There's Aubrey Plaza, Brian Tee Henry, and Tim Matheson (better known for being the best part of A Very Brady Sequel [1996]). Mark Hamill as Chucky?! Let's watch this!

I feel like I could have told you this doll is evil.
Ooooh he looks like Thunderbirds!

Chucky is so stupid. Just kick the doll away. Once the series started getting campy and insane with Bride of Chucky (1998) it definitely became more its own thing. I don't know if Chucky is a horror icon - I guess so? I'm surprised this hasn't had a more mainstream reboot, but in researching this I was surprised to learn it has had a fairly steady Direct-to-DVD presence. That's not really surprising.

So, let's talk cash, cultural cache, all that stuff. Toy Story 4 is going to make a lot of money this weekend. There's been no great financial juggernaut in a few weeks and there's really nothing next weekend, either. Chucky is great counter-programming and Summer Horror can work, but it's also a property that I don't think that many people care about. We will eventually reach a point where this movie is just debuted on streaming services and we coordinate enough that it doesn't get lost in the shuffle of hundreds of other low budget horror movies on streaming sites. That's not this weekend, though.

Will these movies have cultural weight? I don't think so. How often do you reflect on Monsters University (2013) in your life? It was nice to remember Bride of Chucky. That movie is fun as hell. There might be a little of that going on here - with a much more violent streak. It's a tough tone to do well, and it might get a bit of a cult following. A...Cult of Chucky (2017) following? Eh? EH?!

What are you going to see this weekend? I mean, this is the longest day of the year, do you want to spend it on this crap? Go watch Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019). Let's keep that franchise alive!

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Pets

Another Friday is upon us, ladies and gentlemen, so it's time once again to discuss the merits of the next theatrical masterpiece to hit the cinematron this day. It almost feels like a light week with only two films to discuss and as an even more stunning fact, neither are sequels, adaptations, or franchise installments! What a time to be alive!

Needless to say, the slots for the next few summers are set in stone, and if Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017), and World War Z II (2017) do well, that may change things (holy hell, not bloody likely), but as it sits now, we might see more weeks like this. Audiences have grotesquely expressed their lack of interest in sequels, or to be more specific, a lack of interest in seeing the same crap they just saw. Captain America: Civil War (2016) was a different spin with heavy emotional investment. Finding Dory (2016) was more of a spin-off than a direct sequel that brought the audience into new places with new characters while expanding a character that seemed un-expandable. X-Men: Apocalypse (2016) offered the same old shit. How many of you are really that excited about the awkwardly titled World War Z II? Holy shit, how does this stuff get greenlit? Well, international markets, that's why.

But on to the task at hand. Today we see the arrival of Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (2016) and The Secret Life of Pets (2016). I'm very excited for one of these and I also think that that will do very well, while the other crashes and burns like The Angry Birds Movie (2016). Try to guess which one will do which! Maybe Angry Birds wasn't an unequivocal disaster, but it certainly feels like it landed with a thud rather than exaltation. So let's just start with that one.

Jeez I hope my dog doesn't do this at home. I use that beater!

The Secret Life of Pets looks awful, and has been getting some rough reviews. This latest animated assault on the box office comes from Illumination Entertainment, which delivered the surprisingly good (but sort of awkwardly named) Despicable Me (2010), followed that up with the lesser, but financially astounding Despicable Me 2 (2013), and most recently, Minions (2015), which was just egregiously awful. They've really stuck in their Gru/Minions world setting, and although the Minions are one of the best iconic branded characters to come out of any film series in recent memory, the studio's commitment to kid and only kid-friendly material is detrimental to anyone else's enjoyment of their films.

I say this having just watched Minions like two days ago, and even though I was excited to see a slapstick comedy rendition that was essentially a silent film (without the principal characters speaking English), I instead got an awkwardly voiced and animated barrage of lame jokes and set-ups. I continually sat there wishing what I was watching was clever. Old Looney Tunes used to craft a delicate set-up then subvert expectations with a huge pay-off. Minions crafted these set-ups and then executed them exactly as you'd expect.

The Secret Life of Pets appears to be more of the same. Everything in the marketing material seems to be very obvious, surface-level stuff without anything really interesting going on. There's also absolutely no indication of the story being told or even who the main protagonists are (they're apparently voiced by Louis C.K. and Eric Stonestreet. These guys. Have you seen any commercial starring these two?). It's never a great sign when the studio isn't confident enough to broadcast the story being told and is instead relying on the slight zaniness of the premise.

And that premise, by the way, is apparently exactly the same as Toy Story (1995). Like, straight up. These kind of things are red flags to me. Lack of a coherent story structure, memorable characters, or inventive gags are all things that really lead me to believe that this shit id dead in the water. We've already had a very animation-heavy summer, and to be more specific, a very heavy talking-animal animation heavy year. This could obviously go either way. On the one hand, this is clearly what people want right now. On the other hand, Zootopia (2016) and Finding Dory (2016) have done this schtick better, the former of which just dropped on DVD, the latter is still the reigning box office champ. Six months from now we're not going to be discussing The Secret Life of Pets.

So we move on next to the latest comedy of the summer, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates. In my earlier predicitions, I thought this could be an epic year for Comedy, possibly the best ever. Between Neighbors 2 (2016), The Nice Guys (2016), and Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping (2016), the line-up was spectacular. While all of these films reviewed well, none broke out to become that epic, ever-memorable Summer 2016 event like Knocked Up (2007) or The Hangover (2009) or hell, even The Campaign (2012) in years past. We're still looking for our Trainwreck (2015) or our 22 Jump Street (2014) to blast us into the stratosphere. I think Mike and Dave have an outside shot.

First of all, I love the "based on a true story" rub. I first saw this in some late marketing and I thought it was a great riff on "true story" pictures that are typically more serious. Then I found out it really was based on a ridiculous true story! That's incredible! I love movies based on Internet ads. Call this the Tusk (2014) effect.

But this flick ought to be a goldmine. No comedy outside of Deadpool (2016) has really caught on this year, and the cast is totally likable and primed for superstardom. Anna Kendrick, Aubrey Plaza, Adam DeVine, and Zac Efron are all mid-level stars who have incredibly funny resumes. It's A, A, A, and Z! The premise is easy to understand, a solid gold opportunity for goofiness, and the turn with these bros biting off more than they can chew is both pleasing to the gender wars and a magnificent rug pull for these character tropes and stereotypes. I'm on board 100%.

Alright, now I just want that suit.

Now, I said the exact same thing about Popstar but whatevs. It can't fail THAT bad right? Right? I think this comes at the right time. We're in a relative dead zone (Finding Dory somehow won three weeks in a row and no other film is dominant right now), and we're starved for straightforward comedies. A drawback could come from its R-rating that could prevent a lot of people from seeing it or being interested in it, but fuck, every movie I cited above was R, so that argument is horrible. R for Retarded, if you will. Hey, this just became an R-rated paragraph, what do you want from me.

Commercially I think it's on solid footing. It's had some fairly good reviews. Around here of course, we're most interested in its cultural foothold. Can it rise to become the Funniest Film of 2016? That's really where it needs to be, and the path is set for it to take the Crown. Efron is suddenly starting to make a name for himself in these raunchy bro-spoofing comedies and I'm curious if he distinguishes himself enough from his Teddy character from Neighbors 2, which came out really recently. Anna Kendrick and Aubrey Plaza have been in slews of films, most notably together in Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2010), and while Kendrick has never really been the center of funny in a film (Pitch Perfect [2012] probably comes closest, but she wasn't really the source of laughs. Just a source of AWESOME), Plaza did have the underrated The To-Do List (2013), which really didn't make much of a dent three summers ago. It's interesting that her character here seems wildly out of her typical April Ludgate disinterested teen schtick. Maybe that's because she's 32 now.

This is really the test of Adam DeVine, though, who's never headlined a major movie before. He's bounced around for sure (another Pitch Perfect alum), including random stints in The Final Girls (2015), and The Intern (2015), mostly riffing on his Workaholics faux-bro persona. There's actually also a weird Robert DeNiro connection there through The Intern and Zac Efron in Dirty Grandpa (2016). And Aubrey Plaza was in Dirty Grandpa! This is getting weird. I'd also almost guarantee some kind of cameo from his other Workaholics suite-mates, although they've all become decently busy now. Still, he's built up enough of a personal brand from Adam DeVine's House Party to Allstate ads. He's ripe for a break-out hit and I think this can be it.

So what do you think? Are you watching the cuddly but moronic animated animal movie or what could be the break-out comedy of the summer? Or just Finding Dory again? Leave one below!

Reconsidering Our Top Films From 2009 - 2012

I realized something important when perusing through all the films of 2013 while making my obligatory "Best Of" list this year - looking back on some of my selections filled me full of rage and shame. It's the tricky thing about lacking the benefit of hindsight - some films even from just a few years ago haven't held up, and others that I thought were trash have grown on me. So I decided to do some revisionist history here. I went back the past four years and looked at my Top 10 Lists from 2009 - 2012. Now, it may just be the fact that it hasn't really grown on me yet, but 2012 still looks pretty good. I may not be changing that too much. But you had better believe I'm scrapping the rest.

Here, with the benefit of digesting and discussing each film for a little while longer, are the new rankings:

Original 2009 List:

#10: AVABAR
#9: Observe and Report
#8: I Love You, Man
#7: The Great Buck Howard
#6: Up in the Air
#5: Funny People 
#4: Zombieland 
#3: A Serious Man
#2: Inglourious Basterds 
#1: District 9

This isn't altogether awful, and one reason I'm pumped for looking back at these things is remembering films such as The Great Buck Howard. That certainly isn't a flick though that I've really seen or thought about in four years. I can't even understand why AVABAR is here at all, I suppose that, even though I only placed it at #10, I was somewhat swept up in the sheer spectacle of its release, like literally, billions of other people worldwide. Four years on, though, I can judge it for how hollow it really is. So, here's my revised list:

Updated 2009 List:

#10: Where the Wild Things Are
#9: UP
#8: Observe and Report
#7: The Road
#6: Funny People
#5: The Hangover
#4: Adventureland
#3: The Hurt Locker
#2: A Serious Man
#1: Inglourious Basterds 

The good ninja wears white, of course

I was tempted to include other flicks like G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, which is actually turned out to be one of the most enjoyable and re-watchable Sunday afternoon movies of the past five years. I just still couldn't really add it, though. I did add the most depressing film of all time, The Road, which I still think about, and Spike Jonze's Where the Wild Things Are, which really frustrated me by not meeting my expectations the first time I saw it, but also made me think a lot to figure it out. There were also some films whose greatness I didn't buy into in December, 2009 like The Hurt Locker and UP. Finally, the original installment of The Hangover deserves its place as one of the more tightly written comedies of the past decade, as well as one of the most debaucherous and influential.

Even though I think I Love You, Man did have some staying power, it's been overshadowed a bit by superior Paul Rudd buddy movies like Role Models (2008) and Dinner for Schmucks (2010). Even though I still love Zombieland, I do think that continued permutations of the zombie genre have lessened the tremendously fresh impact it had on me. Finally I scrapped my #1 pick, District 9 just because, ultimately four and a half years on, I don't really care about it other than the fact that at the time it was an astoundingly new movie. Maybe Elysium (2013) drained the appreciation of its unique aesthetics out of me.

Original 2010 List:

#10: Exit Through the Gift Shop
#9: Toy Story 3
#8: Cyrus
#7: True Grit
#6: Hot Tub Time Machine
#5: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
#4: Black Swan
#3: MacGruber 
#2: Inception
#1: The Social Network

Updated 2010 List:

#10: Exit Through the Gift Shop
#9: Black Swan
#8: Get Low
#7: Jackass 3D
#6: The Other Guys
#5: Get Him to the Greek
#4: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
#3: Hot Tub Time Machine
#2: Inception
#1: The Social Network

Featuring Grammy Award-winning robots

My horrible blockbuster that I actually think is pretty decent now is going to be Tron: Legacy. I can also watch that just about any time of the year. Looking back on it now, I'm surprised how many great comedies came out of 2010. Even though I did really dig MacGruber, it definitely didn't stay with me as much as Get Him to the Greek or The Other Guys did. I was tempted to also throw in Dinner for Schmucks, but I think that has some years to go before it overtakes anyone. I also don't think anyone cares about Cyrus, and even though it was pretty epic, I've found I haven't really cared about Toy Story 3 since that summer three years ago, which isn't really true for other Pixar films like UP or Brave (2012).

I had this really odd debate within myself whether to include Get Low or Easy A. They really couldn't be farther apart. Ultimately thought I think it may be a pretty good movie, Easy A just went down too easy for me. Eh. So I threw in Jackass 3D, because it's still one of the best 3D experiences I've ever had at the multiplex (how many blogs use that terminology), and one of the finest uses of slow motion technology ever. You'll note that my #1 and #2 selections haven't changed. I still think those are the tits.

Original 2011 List:

#11: A Dangerous Method
#10: Hugo
#9: The Rise of the Planet of the Apes
#8: The Descendants
#7: The Artist
#6: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo 
#5: Bridesmaids
#4: Attack the Block
#3: Rango
#2: Drive
#1: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Updated 2011 List:

#11: X-Men: First Class
#10: Bridesmaids
#9: Fast Five
#8: The Tree of Life
#7: The Descendants
#6: The Rise of the Planet of the Apes
#5: Moneyball
#4: Attack the Block
#3: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
#2: The Muppets
#1: Rango

Mostly because I can't get over
the name, Imogen Poots.

There were a lot of great films in 2011 as I'm looking back on it, now. My rainy day film is the vastly underrated Fright Night, while we wait for underappreciated comedies like Hall Pass, The Sitter, and Our Idiot Brother to mature. I also remember really digging Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary at the time, but I can't say I've really thought about it since. Let me also hit you quick with Cedar Rapids, Midnight in Paris, and Contagion that all really tied for the #11 spot, but haven't really been relevant since. So, I've thrown out a lot of the overhyped Oscar-bait muck here and added some of the finest blockbusters that have emerged in the past couple years, including Fast Five and X-Men: First Class.

I'm not so sure about The Tree of Life, but I still think it's worth noting, even if some of its fire may have dissipated. I still love everything on here, and as Jonah Hill's brand gets stronger, so does Moneyball. And yes, I ranked The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo right next to The Muppets. There's no accounting for my taste in film.

Original 2012 List:

#10: Haywire
#9: Silver Linings Playbook
#8: The Grey
#7: Argo
#6: Looper
#5: Lincoln
#4: 21 Jump Street
#3: The Cabin in the Woods
#2: Django Unchained
#1: The Master

Updated 2012 List:

#10: The Grey
#9: Ruby Sparks
#8: The Dark Knight Rises
#7: Dredd
#6: Zero Dark Thirty
#5: Seven Psychopaths
#4: 21 Jump Street
#3: Goon
#2: Django Unchained 
#1: The Master

Escape from Space!

My total underrated good time romp is clearly Guy Pearce having the time of his life in Lockout, which is as 80s throwback as you're going to get. This year wasn't as strong for immortal comedies, although I might contend that The Campaign does its part. So I swapped out a bunch of those Oscar Winners that I don't care about any more for some that seemed more prescient - Zero Dark Thirty and Dredd, of course. And even though The Cabin in the Woods was a game-changer and remains one of my favorite films of the year, I couldn't see myself watching it again after knowing the twist. That being said, I have replayed the twist's dire aftereffects countless times on YouTube. To be honest, the same goes for Looper. It was an incredible movie, but do we care in 2014?

Goon ended up being my favorite movie of the year, and it's a delight to watch every hockey season. Alongside fare like The Grey, I added the intricate, surprising romantic comedy Ruby Sparks. I was tempted to add Moonrise Kingdom, but it's a bit too much like The Midnight Coterie of Sinister Intruders. Finally, with all this other nonsense, I thought The Dark Knight Rises proved itself to be at the top of the superhero game and deserves that recognition here. Bane was a bigger threat than the Joker in a better movie. Deal with that.

Trends: The Commercially Successful Oscar Winner, 2008 - Present

Everyone has a different idea of what the Oscars represent. To some they are an aloof ceremony that foregoes recognizing the biggest films of the year. Where are all of Michael Bay's Golden Statues? The man has been robbed, so sayeth every 14-year old boy who saw Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011) opening night. On the other hand, the Awards could be seen as a total popularity contest - only honoring films that fall within this very thin spectrum of critical and commercial success.

This is not always the case. As recently as 2009 we had the ultimate battle between the highest grossing film of all time (AVABAR) and The Hurt Locker. The latter of course won it all and became the lowest grossing Oscar Best Picture Winner of the past thirty years. Other films find success through their very nomination itself, leading to the so-called "Oscar Bump" (a fine breakdown of which may be found here, which calls it a "Boost." whatever). Note how a film like The Artist (2011) was able to more than double its gross after its nomination.

What's the point of all this? For whatever reason, we are in the age where Oscar Films have become a mainstream part of the zeitgeist and not just obscure films picked by an aloof Cabal of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. There is some factual doubt that is ever was the case, but the image of a stodgy, secret, ablative society that judges who gets these awards persists in common culture.

Anyway, let's go through the last few years, all the way back to 2008. That year is important in Best Picture history, because it represents the critical breaking point for mainstream vs. obscure critical darling films. Chris Nolan's The Dark Knight (2008) was left out of the ballot box, and instead the Oscar eventually went to the highest-grossing nominee of that year, Slumdog Millionaire (2008) ($141,319,928). By the way, did you know that Slumdog made $141 million? I had no idea before looking this up. The only other film to crest the century mark was The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008), which in my memory, was the only major nominee that year. How did that happen?

Let's look at Box Office Mojo's breakdown for that year here. You can see that Button made most of its buck through natural success. Slumdog, though, gathered its cheddar in three big phases - pre-nomination, post-nomination, and post-win. It's clear that the nomination itself helped this film, as did the win, because everyone wanted to see what the fuss was about. Slumdog may not rank as one of the best Best Picture winners of all time, but it is still a pretty good movie. The general discontent that surrounded this thing and the perceived snub of The Dark Knight led to an expansion of the number of nominees in the Best Picture Category. This was a veiled attempt to allow both the normative nominees (those critical/commercial thin-line walkers mentioned earlier) and the bigger successes. This has had a varying degree of success. Most notably, though, it has also allowed really crazy crap like Winter's Bone (2010), The Tree of Life (2011), and Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012) into the Oscar Discussion. Which is awesome.

$100 million is a fair standard for a widely successful film. Judging the Best Picture Oscar Nominees since Button and Slumdog in 2008, we get the following numbers:

2009: 5 (AVABAR, UP, The Blind Side, Inglourious Basterds, District 9)
2010: 5 (Toy Story 3, Inception, True Grit, The King's Speech, Black Swan)
2011: 1 (The Help)
2012: 6 (Lincoln, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Argo, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook)

We may also note that in 2010, The Social Network and The Fighter came pretty damn close to our standard with $96 million and $93 million respectively. Also, this year still has some room to grow, with Zero Dark Thirty (2012) at $88 million right now and almost certain to pass $100 if it gets some Oscar Love.

So what can we say about this trend? Of all these films, none in the past two years could be considered Blockbuster Tentpoles (defined as high-budget event films with heavy studio backing and the goal of mainstream appeal, released in either the Summer or Christmas Season). The only films of these sort are AVABAR, UP, Toy Story 3, and Inception. Of these, AVABAR is sort of an anomaly due to its launch at a perfect time of 3D Spectacle and while the pair of animated Pixar films were legitimately some of the most critically and commercially successful films of their years, they never had a real shot at Oscar Success in the major categories (they picked up nods for Best Animated Film as well as Best Score and Best Song, respectively). That basically leaves us with Inception as the only Best Picture Nominee since The Dark Knight that fits in the mold of The Dark Knight. Yeah, that does make sense.

Looking at this lot, it's clear that 2010 and 2012 offered us some of the more meatier Best Picture entrees. The Best Picture battle between The King's Speech and The Social Network that pitted heady historical drama with razor-tongued modern history surely drove interest in the race both culturally and at the cinema. Likewise, we may realize just how bad a year 2011 was in that a film like The Artist was able to run away with the Grand Prize with virtually no competition.

Our current nominees offer us mostly drama films with hints of modern warfare (Zero Dark Thirty), fantasy (Life of Pi), history (Lincoln), and revisionist history (Django Unchained). There's also a musical (Les Miserables), a foreign film (Amour), a family drama hidden in a romantic comedy (Silver Linings Playbook), and a classic independent subject and feature (Beats of the Southern Wild). And they may be taken down by a spy film much more unique and revolutionary than Skyfall (2012), albeit without any of the cache (Argo).

None of these are really all-powerful blockbusters. Some are indies scrapping the barrel. Most lie in this weird spot that's suddenly only reserved for Oscar films. We've gotten to a point where there's no reason to see a film like Argo in theaters unless it's an Oscar Nominee. Just look at The Master (2012), which is superior to all of these, yet burdened by its inaccessibility. Thus we find another part of the package. Oscar movies must not only be critical and commercial successes, but they must be marketable as well. It's a new age where strategic positioning for nominations and wins can greatly extend the life of a film, and this cash flow becomes the source of the ongoing studio desire to finance such films, in addition to the prestige associated with the industry's highest awards.

So what are we left with now? The Oscars aren't really recognizing the best films of the year (The Master), the films that will prove the most culturally (and industrially) influential (The Avengers), or even give a single nod to a mainstream blockbuster film superior to the one that started all this jazz (The Dark Knight Rises). What are they all about then? How about just a fun night with some legitimately decent flicks? I'll take it.

This trend will continue. These middle-ranged $100 mill dramas are what Oscar splits its back on. They're mainstream enough to have mass appeal, strong marketing pushes, and a wide base of support while maintaining credibility as being smaller underdogs or "hidden gems" of some kind that elicit a kind of independent sensibility, even if the term doesn't necessarily apply. And of course, Best Picture is just going to whoever has the most support. In the past couple years, that's been both The Artist (The 71st Highest Grossing Film of its year and the 7th Highest Grossing Best Picture nominee), and The Hurt Locker (116th for the year / 8th among BP noms).

In short, who knows?

The Oscars come on this Sunday, 2/24/2013. Who do you think will win it all? Leave a comment below or vote in our poll to your right!

Oscar Zone, Vol. IV: Nominations & Predictions

Now that we've settled into a little bit of Oscar Season and the Golden Globes have come and passed, welcome to the Fourth Edition of the Oscar Zone - Norwegian Morning Wood's ultimate source of Oscar Knowledge, Predictions, and Inevitable Failure. It's always a tough spot of the year, dealing with Oscars. On the one hand they're fairly meaningless - a win is much more an indication of which studio was able to lobby politics in its favor the most rather than an accurate judgment of the integrity of the year's best films. Still, it's the most prestigious official award you can get in the film industry, and Oscar certainly has a way of canonizing its recipients as some of the best. It also immortalizes some films in ways nothing else can. Why else would anyone in 2013 care about Crash (2005)? For good or ill, they're a big deal and have a huge impact on the industry, if only for being the sole reason why some films are made.

They're also pretty fun to predict, talk about, and argue over. That and Box Office Predictions are the closest thing nerdy film snobs have to a Fantasy Football Season. Without further adieu then, here are our predictions for all 24 categories. First, though, here is how we've done in years past, and you'll actually note that I've gotten better each year:

2012: 16/24
2011: 14/24
2010: 12/24

Ugh, I'm really bad at this. Let's get to it. Predicted winners in BOLD.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

This is a race essentially coming down to Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook. While Silver Linings is hitting at the right time and is the only film since Warren Beatty's Reds (1981) to score an acting nod in every category, romantic comedies (which is the closest genre you can put this in) very rarely win Best Picture. Likewise, the love of Life of Pi is evident from the ridiculous amount of nominations it received as well as the idea that since the Academy outright snubbed Ang Lee on Brokeback Mountain (2005) they may try to rectify it here.

Ultimately this seemed in the bag for Lincoln - which can also be seen as righting a past wrong (his snub in '99 when Saving Private Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love and its Weinstein Machine), until Argo kicked ass at the Golden Globes. The American voters in the Academy ought to shine much higher on the American epic, Lincoln, although Hollywood does love depictions of its own, as seen with The Artist (2011) last year. It's ultimately a tough pick, but as Spielberg and Affleck come down to it again, the heady historical drama (see also: The King's Speech [2010]) ought to win the day.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Denzel Washington for Flight

This is essentially coming down to Dan and Hugh, but there isn't really a question that the towering performance of Lewis will leave him with an unprecedented third Best Actor Trophy. As the Golden Globes indicated, everyone is in love with this performance. While it's not as totally in the bag as his turn in There Will Be Blood (2007), if he nails the Screen Actors Guild Awards on January 27th, it's all but assured.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts for The Impossible

This is shaping up to be the most interesting race of the night. You've got two great young acting talents, J-Chast and J-Law battling it out through two breathtaking, career-defining roles. They both have recent nominations in their history (Jessica for Supporting Actress in The Help [2011], Jennifer for Leading Actress in Winter's Bone [2011]). They also both won their respective Golden Globes in the drama and comedy categories. No matter who wins, it won't be the last time either of them is nominated. Although Zero Dark Thirty was so entirely driven by Jessica's performance, I'm giving the edge to Jennifer. It's very unlikely that anyone else from Silver Linings wins, but it's clear that the Academy was enamoured by the acting. Will her dig at Meryl at the Globes hurt her? This could sure go either way - what will the SAGs think?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin for Argo
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained

This is an insane category in that every nominee has already won an award, making it one of the most competitive races ever. Yes, for once, the Supporting Actor Oscar Winner is murky. I landed on Tommy Lee here through eliminating everyone else. Christoph Waltz easily wooed the Hollywood Foreign Press into his Golden Globe win, but he was better, or at least fresher during his last win as Landa in Inglourious Basterds (2009). PSH had a dominating performance, and since it was an especially featured role that could have gone leading, that may be in his favor, although the Academy seems to hate The Master. This could easily go to De Niro as sort of a capstone to his career, like they did with Alan Akrin for Little Miss Sunshine (2006), but this hasn't been the case lately (see: Mickey Rourke losing for The Wrestler [2008] to Sean Penn's Milk [2008]). With Tommy's scowl gone viral, who's doesn't want to see more of him in the spotlight?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams for The Master
Sally Field for Lincoln
Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook

This was preordained from that first trailer for Les Misérables. The specific moment that Anne won her Oscar - her single take, live on-set rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream" has been the centerpiece of all of Les Mis' marketing for good reason - it's the one guaranteed shot at Oscar that it has. Of course, it will probably walk away with quite a bit more.

Best Achievement in Directing

Michael Haneke for Amour
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild

Kudos to however Spielberg knocked Affleck and Bigelow out of this competition. Maybe he enlisted Bill Clinton to help him. In one of the wackier categories that doesn't line up at all with either the Golden Globes or the DGA Awards, Spielberg and Ang are really the only consistent nominees. Lincoln has far more widespread love than Life of Pi, and the Academy has shown that it loves them directors that can recreate them historicky period times - it's his to lose.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Amour: Michael Haneke
Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino
Flight: John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty: Mark Boal

I can see this going to Moonrise, it's the kind of quirky (awfully clichéd word to describe a very nuanced film that's otherwise hard to describe, I know) pic that has soared here in the past (Little Miss Sunshine, Juno [2007]), but it's totally out of momentum by now and the seriously crazy journalistic lengths Mark Boal undertook should be recognized. He did just win this award for The Hurt Locker (2009), and it's fun to see him go against Tarantino again in the same category. QT nabbed the Globe, but he was pretty shocked at it. Will the Academy approve such liberal use of the n-word? I think not.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Argo: Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild: Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi: David Magee
Lincoln: Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell

The past five awards have all been based on books with similar Best Picture momentum. It also helps that Tony Kushner's adaptation an navigation of complex 19th-Century politics is astoundingly clear, concise, and impactful. Most of these were also nominated for WGA Awards, but we won't find that out until February 17th, a week before the Oscars. We won't need to, Lincoln is all over this.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Brave: Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman
Frankenweenie: Tim Burton
ParaNorman: Sam Fell, Chris Butler
The Pirates! Band of Misfits: Peter Lord
Wreck-It Ralph: Rich Moore

Holy shit - the Best Animated Oscar is actually contested! While I dug Brave, there were many who thought Pixar had slipped a little, and that's reflected in my prediction here. Indeed the flick was kind of out there. The inclusion of The Pirates! Band of Misfits is intriguing and also makes this category full of three claymation pictures. That might indicate that claymation is hot among voters this year, in which case the best of the lot may be Frankenweenie. Wreck-It Ralph, though, had a far more engrossing hook, brand, and box office haul, causing me to lean in its favor.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Amour (Austria)
War Witch (Canada)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)

Amour was nominated for Best Picture...and is the only Foreign Language Film so nominated. Doesn't that mean it's the best Foreign Language Film? The same thing happened with animated films Up (2009) and Toy Story 3 (2010) - it's kind of a foregone conclusion it'll win here, which is spectacular, because this category is crazy hard to predict some years. The lack of the French film The Intouchables (2012), which for a long time was a foregone conclusion as an Oscar favourite, is a little surprising, but since Mike Haneke already cleaned up among his own Foreign brethren at the Golden Globes, he'll probably go for the kill here.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Anna Karenina: Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained: Robert Richardson
Life of Pi: Claudio Miranda
Lincoln: Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall: Roger Deakins

It's clear that there is some Life of Pi love with its astounding 11 nominations, but it's not really favoured to win that many. That expression of love ought to come through here, although Kaminski is 2/5 at the Oscars and if Lincoln sweeps, it's his. Roger Deakins, however, is 0/9 at the Oscars and really deserves a little Golden Bald Man as sort of a Career Achievement Award. The cinematography of Skyfall was also one of its more notable, if not its best aspect. Still, I don't think the Academy will go for it.

Best Achievement in Editing

Argo: William Goldenberg
Life of Pi: Tim Squyres
Lincoln: Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook: Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty: William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor

Editing is another nice way to acknowledge how much the Academy loved a film without really giving it a major award. 0D30 has plenty of love but is a bit to divisive for them to really back in anything major (except maybe Jessica for Best Actress). This could of course mean that Argo leaves empty handed, which seems highly unlikely. If it ends up making a run for Best Picture, this ought to fall its way.

Best Achievement in Production Design

Anna Karenina: Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright
Les Misérables: Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi: David Gropman, Anna Pinnock
Lincoln: Rick Carter, Jim Erickson

The production design of The Hobbit was exceptional and deserving, but Les Mis is hitting a bit harder right now. Return of the King wowed in 2003, but that was riding a ton of Lord of the Rings buzz that hasn't followed the more middling Hobbit. Experts at Gold Derby have pointed out that this category has not gone to a film set in contemporary times in twenty years, and many of its experts have sided with Anna Karenina, Les Misérables, or Lincoln. Looking at the last few winners though, Hugo (2011), Alice in Wonderland (2010), and AVABAR (2009), it seems like by far this category fancies fantasy rather than period productions. That splits this category between The Hobbit and Life of Pi, and with its 11 nominations, the latter has the advantage.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Anna Karenina: Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables: Paco Delgado
Lincoln: Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror: Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman: Colleen Atwood

Dueling Snow White tales aside, at first this may seem like the perfect category for Anna Karenina. It's a dopey period movie that no one really saw, and follows a long line of recent winners such as Marie Antoinette (2006), Elizabeth: The Golden Age (2007), The Duchess (2008), and The Young Victoria (2009). It's predicted to win by a wide margin, and I wouldn't be surprised if it did. However, in all these years, no film has contested here that has had as much support as Lincoln. Both The Return of the King and The Artist won here when they were nominated with plenty of additional Best Picture support. However, however, this year is looking to be much more like 2010, where The King's Speech won Best Picture, but many other awards were split - it was nominated here and lost. I think that will hold true for Lincoln and we'll see another crappy period flick nab the honor.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock: Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samuel
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane
Les Misérables: Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell

This award has actually quite often gone to the bigger blockbuster films such as Star Trek (2009), The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe (2005), Return of the King and The Fellowship of the Ring (2001). If The Hobbit wins anything, it's this one, but with films such as La Vie en Rose (2007) and The Iron Lady (2011) also pulling this award out, it's really fair game. I give an edge to Peter.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Anna Karenina: Dario Marianelli
Argo: Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi: Mychael Danna
Lincoln: John Williams
Skyfall: Thomas Newman

No one is really running away with this so far this year, I'm leaning towards Lincoln based on its strong support elsewhere, but like cinematography, Life of Pi could very well pull away with this one. In years prior this has gone to sweeps (The Artist, Slumdog Millionaire [2008], Return of the King), near-sweeps (The Social Network, Brokeback Mountain) and totally random picures (Up, Atonement [2007]). Betting on John Williams and Lincoln is fairly safe, although this by far his best score. Life of Pi did conquer at the Globes, and the score is damn good, so a win there would not be surprising.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Chasing Ice: J. Ralph ("Before My Time")
Les Misérables: Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer ("Suddenly")
Life of Pi: Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree ("Pi's Lullaby")
Skyfall: Adele, Paul Epworth ("Skyfall")
Ted: Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane ("Everybody Needs a Best Friend")

To be honest, I'm just glad we have a good field of nominees here instead of the two we had last year, even though that gave The Muppets (2011) a nice easy win. Incredibly, no James Bond theme has ever won an Academy Award - that will end in 2013. Everyone loves Adele, and she might as well add an Oscar to her ridiculously long list of Awards. "Skyfall" is a spectacular track, both for the movie it's featured in and for everyday casual listening - this really can only be rarely said for movie songs (but often for Oscar-winning movie songs - I love me some Three 6). Les Mis had a bit of a cheap shot here and has been criticized for creating the original song "Suddenly" purely to get some Oscar recognition. It's one of the weaker songs in the film for good reason, being shoved in there arbitrarily. And would I like to see Seth MacFarlane go home with an Oscar in addition to his hosting duties? Hell yeah.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Argo: John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García
Les Misérables: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes
Life of Pi: Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin
Lincoln: Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins
Skyfall: Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson

When musicals or movies with heavy music influences are nominated here, they tend to win (Dreamgirls [2006], Ray [2004], Chicago [2002]). Les Mis fits the bill pretty solidly for the production of its sound content, which is vital for this film. Still, it has also gone to bigger flicks like Inception (2010), The Bourne Ultimatum (2007), and King Kong (2005), a testament to how vital sound is to the creation of these big fantasy and action worlds - in which case, Life of Pi or Skyfall may seem destined to pull out the win. There's also of course sweepers like The Hurt Locker and Slumdog Millionaire, and if Lincoln sweeps, this is Andy, Gary, and Ron's to lose. So, that basically leaves Argo with no chance, but I'm not convinced that the musical can't win here.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Argo: Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn
Django Unchained: Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi: Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton
Skyfall: Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker
Zero Dark Thirty: Paul N.J. Ottosson

War movies rule this category - dating back to U-571 (2000). Since then it's gone to Pearl Harbor (2001), Letters from Iwo Jima (2006), and The Hurt Locker. The only recent loss that's worrisome is last year's War Horse (2011), but let's face it, that movie sucked anyway. Even though there's actually little war in Zero Dark Thirty, the sound editing is precise, adds great tension to the narrative, and is integral to the viewing experience of that final raid of bin Laden's pad in Abbottabad. There's not a great chance this goes to anyone else.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

The Avengers: Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White
Life of Pi: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott
Prometheus: Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman: Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson

This is a raucous category this year. The Avengers surely deserves to win for this. The Hobbit certainly deserves to win for this. This category, though, does heavily favor nominees also nominated for best picture (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [2008], AVABAR, Inception [2010], Hugo). The only flick here that really fits that bill is Life of Pi, and that film has been widely praised for only its visuals anyway. And to be fair, Richard Parker is worth that Avengers single take or the crazy double-sets of The Hobbit anyway.

Best Documentary, Features

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

So we at last move on the crappy categories that are really up for grabs. No one really knows how these will turn out. There's usually only one or two big docs a year and those get the Oscar nods obvi. There isn't anything totally apparent this year, but Searching for Sugar Man supposedly has some buzz, and yeah I've kind of heard about it before, though it's a little foggy. That's good enough for my prognostication here.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

If there's anything worse than Feature Docs it's Short Subject Docs. What an awful, awful category. We might as well get the dartboard out. Open Heart would mean that both docs would feature stories from Africa. It's getting the best odds, though, so sure, I don't care.

Best Short Film, Animated

Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Paperman
The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare

This is the only really juicy category in this section of the Oscars because we actually get to see half of these before other animated films like Ice Age: Inconsequential Drift (2012) and Brave (2012). To that, we'll go with Maggie Simpson's Oscar Debut here, because Dave Silverman and the rest of The Simpsons lore deserve an Oscar. It's not actually favoured, but with my rule about kind of knowing about something and letting the most popular nominee win - The Longest Daycare is all over this.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

So we're finally on our last category here. It's fitting that I get exhausted and don't care by this point, because really, these categories are impossible to predict. I actually did try to watch some of these this year, and then found myself doing ANYTHING ELSE with my time. Siding with Derby again, Curfew it is.

So folks, that's it. How will these predictions fare? My lifetime correct pick rate is 58%, which is pretty awful. Let's boost that over 60 this year. Over the weeks to come we'll also be taking a closer look at the acting, writing, directing, and Best Picture races. Those are really the only ones that matter. The ceremony comes on February 24th, hosted by Seth MacFarlane.

War of the Months: December

Well people, it's been a long and arduous year but we've finally come to the finale of the War of the Months, our year-long look at the biggest and best films that have been released each month of the year. Today on the last day of December, which means it's time for one more round of useless analysis.

December: Snowy Summer

December is a great month. It's usually filled with some really big blockbusters that for whatever reason don't really fit in the Summer Season. It's a more confined month that really allows a flick to seize the zeitgeist, whether it be Lord of the Rings, I Am Legend (2007), AVABAR (2009), or whatever. It's also this spot for a lot of movies aiming for Oscar glory because the releases can be as fresh in the minds of potential voters as possible. This often involves a lot of the bigger Academy-leaning films like The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2009) or True Grit (2010). It's a time when kids are home from college or their lives or whatever and go check out some films with their families or old friends. In this sense, December Blockbusters tend to be a lot more mainstream and digestible than some of the wilider summer movies. Transformers do not belong in December, but something like Meet the Fockers (2004) or Tron Legacy (2010) certainly does.

December Box Office: Christmas Money

There has been one December that nabbed over a Billion bucks, that being in 2009 on the backs of not only AVABAR but also Sherlock Holmes (2009) and Alvin and the Chipmunks (2009). It also involved some holdover sleeper hits of the year such as The Blind Side (2009) and The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2009). As for the biggest December grossers of all time, these flicks read like a who's who of epic franchises. I Am Legend leads the pack followed by AVABAR and a bunch of Lord of the Rings, Chronicles of Narnia and King Kong. It's the Fantasy, Peter Jackson month, baby. It's films do tend to have more of a slow burn because while the month has a lot of Box Office Attention, it's not necessarily focused on a single weekend. It's more of a thing to do for a bunch of friends that are hanging out after not seeing each other for a while.

December Quality: There and Back Again

There are a tremendous amount of great December flicks. It's a time when studios are trying to prime their movies for Oscar bait and the bigger films that are released here are generally of a much higher quality than typical summer crap. This has been far more often a recent trend, so this Month tends to skew with more recent movies, but nevertheless, Here is our Top 10:

#10: Gangs of New York - 12/20/2002
#9: O Brother, Where Art Thou? - 12/22/2000
#8: Children of Men - 12/25/2006
#7: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - 12/19/2001
#6: The Royal Tenenbaums - 12/14/2001
#5: Black Swan - 12/03/2010
#4: Gran Torino- 12/12/2008
#3: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - 12/20/2011
#2: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - 12/17/2003
#1: There Will Be Blood - 12/26/2007

There are so many other great films that deserve mentioning for this month. This includes some great old comedies such as Beverly Hills Cop (1984), Christmas Vacation (1989), Dumb and Dumber (1994), Mars Attacks! (1996), and the Wes Anderson duo, Rushmore (1998) and The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou (2004). We've also seen a lot of sci-fi epics such as the Terry Gilliam films 12 Monkeys (1995) and Brazil (1985) as well as the underseen The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus (2009).

More often than not though, December is a time for big serious drama. From JFK (1991) and Schindler's List (1993) to Jerry Maguire (1996), As Good as it Gets (1997), Titanic (1997), and Good Will Hunting (1997) to the more recent Catch Me if You Can (2002), The Last Samurai (2003), Brokeback Mountain (2005), The Wrestler (2008), and Frost / Nixon (2008). There are plenty of high-profile biographies as well, such as Chaplin (1992), Ali (2001), and The Aviator (2004).

Rounding out December is a collection of random films that all have some great significance. From the westerns  Tombstone (1993) and True Grit (2010) to Fantasy epics like  Pan's Labyrinth (2006) and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002). There's also 80s classics Platoon (1986) and Scarface (1983). Finally, a collection of my personal favourites, Shadow of the Vampire (2000), Cast Away (2000), Ocean's 11 (2001) and Adaptation. (2002). Phew. It's tough to leave any of these flicks out of a post concerning December.


So now that this is the final entry of the War of the Months, it's time to declare a victor. Let's look at the biggest movies released in each month of the year:

January: Cloverfield (2008) - $40,058,229
February: The Passion of the Christ (2004) - $83,848,082
March: Alice in Wonderland (2010) - $116,101,023
April: Fast Five (2011) - $86,198,765
May: Spider-Man 3 (2007) - $151,116,516
June: Toy Story 3 (2010) - $110,307,189
July: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 (2011) - $169,189,427
August: The Bourne Ultimatum (2007) - $69,283,690
September: Sweet Home Alabama (2002) - $35,648,740
October: Paranormal Activity 3 (2011) - $52,568,183
November: The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2009) - $142,839,137
December: I Am Legend (2007) - $77,211,321

Now for a ranking of the Top Grossing Months in order of Best to Worst:

#1: July
#2: June
#3: December
#4: January
#5: May
#6: November
#7: August
#8: March
#9: April
#10: February
#11: October
#12: September

Now for the Best Films Released in each month of the year:

January: Smokin' Aces (2007)
February: Taxi Driver (1976)
March: The Big Lebowski (1998)
April: Mean Girls (2004)
May: The Empire Strikes Back (1980)
June: Jaws (1975)
July: Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)
August: Inglourious Basterds (2009)
September: Goodfellas (1990)
October: Pulp Fiction (1994)
November: Network (1976)
December: There Will Be Blood (2007)

Well that's it folks. There is more Monthly Movie Data here now than you could have ever, every possibly wanted or asked for. Hopefully you now understand much more about when and why movies are released where they are and will be able to go with the seasonal flow a bit smoother. Or something. Happy New Year!

Oscar Zone Vol. II; Part V: Best Picture!

Well here we are, folks. The Academy Award Ceremony is in two days and we've got one more major category to go over. The ballots were due on Tuesday and by now the winners are already in their envelopes and about to be immortalised in Oscar Lore Forever. You can read some more about the whole process of Oscar Week here. But now we'll discuss the most prestigious award of the evening and it's one that for now is up for grabs - Best Picture. Let's take a gander at everyone's chances:

Winter's Bone (2010): Anne Rosellini, Alix Madigan

It's a shame that Wayne and Garth don't pick the Oscars. That's about the only world in which this flick could possibly win. Actually I'm sure that sketch has more of an impact on Pop Culture than Winter's Bone, mostly because the most anybody knows about Winter's Bone is that it's called Winter's...BONE. Hahaha.
Chances of Winning: 1/10

127 Hours (2010): Christian Colson, Danny Boyle, John Smithson

There's been some weird hype lately that this flick might pull down Best Original Song. I'll start citing this website which attempts to use some formulas to predict a flick's Awards Chances. Despite the heavy favourite Toy Story 3, it's possible this is the one category 127 Hours nabs. I don't personally believe it but at any rate none of the discussion is towards Best Picture or even Actor or Screenplay.
Chances of Winning: 2/10

The Kids Are All Right (2010): Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray

It's starting to look as though this film may walk away completely empty handed although it's gaining the most ground in the Original Screenplay Category which I predicted earlier. Actually as you can see, it's just the only non-The King's Speech script that might win according to these people. If that film sweeps though, it's likely it will also grab one for writing. Other than that, Annette still has a slim chance of upsetting Natalie but there isn't a whole lot behind this film right now for Best Picture. Chaulk it up to no one caring about a gay movie not nearly as controversial as Brokeback Mountain (2005).
Chances of Winning: 3/10

Toy Story 3 (2010): Darla K. Anderson

I still want to see Pixar grab this in my lifetime. Actually I'd be psyched to see any Animated Film grab this award sometime, as well as any Director Nomination from an Animated Film. Despite its buzz among people who may have only seen this among the Best Picture Nominees (millions of people. Actually that joke almost doesn't work this year, who the hell knew Black Swan and The King's Speech could be $100 million movies). It's also possible this film has a pretty slow night, possibly only picking up Best Animated Feature. Then again, when I see it parodied and torn down so well by The Simpsons this weekend I don't feel as bad.
Chances of Winning: 4/10

True Grit (2010): Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin

There are plenty of pundits and math out there that actually favour this film in a few categories tho I don't really buy it. Eight time nominee Roger Deakins seems most likely to grab a statue for his Cinematography, but math gives the flick a fair shot in a few other categories that it definitely won't win (like Sound Mixing, c'mon). Anyway, the Academy just recognised one of the best Coen Films with tons of statues three years ago and it seems like their nominations have been granted ever since. True Grit is an excellent film but not as outstandingly shockingly good as No Country for Old Men (2007). Then again, that flick won in a very competitive year and True Grit's momentum seems to be rolling rather than slowing. I still don't think it's possible.
Chances of Winning: 5/10

Black Swan (2010): Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver, Scott Franklin

This flick peaked a bit early and its Supporting Actor snubs of Mila Kunis, Barbara Hershey and Vincent Cassel seems to indicate the Academy didn't throw itself completely behind it. Then again, I'm saying all this when Natalie is an absolute lock for Best Actress. While it may have done a bit better a few weeks ago I think Swan Fever has passed and we aren't seeing this as often the week that ballots are due.
Chances of Winning: 6/10

The Fighter (2010): David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg

It's unlikely that Mark's Opus wins more than the Supporting Acting Categories but Boxing Films have been involved in one of the most famous Academy upsets and snubs, so who knows. I place The Fighter ahead of Rocky (1976) but far behind Raging Bull (1980) in terms of quality, but we all know at this point that that doesn't really matter. As soon as all these films are released it's all politics, quality means a bit less. I think Mark's been underrated as both an actor (Wait...what?) but he's certainly underrated as a Producer. That being, he doesn't win here.
Chances of Winning: 7/10

Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas

I think Inception could roll farther than some people think. While its considered a virtual lock in both Sound Categories and Visual Effects, it wouldn't be a stretch at all for it to nab Art Direction, Cinematography and Original Score, and at that point is it that outrageous that it also takes Best Picture? It would certainly be a huge upset tho its entirely possible (and true) that Nolan really made a very technically proficient film that doesn't have a whole lot of "artful" parts such as acting, directing or is really the kind of film the Academy adores. In fact, there is this growing idea that Hollywood hates what Inception represents - a very successful uniquely original idea, as insane (or not) as that may seem. From this perspective I'd call it equally likely Inception walks away with nothing. What's hardest to say is that out of all the Best Picture Nominees Inception is about guaranteed the greatest Legacy. Good original action blockbusters like this are so incredibly rare these days. It won't find honor here.
Chances of Winning: 8/10

The Social Network (2010): Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca, Ceán Chaffin

Now, a few weeks ago I probably would have flip-flopped my top two. Most of the Academy voters likely feel the same way, but The King's Speech is peaking at the exact right moment, when most voters submit their ballots at the deadline. While some like Peter Travers are desperately still campaigning for The Social Network, Roger Ebert has some good reasons to think that The King's Speech is the one. Math also decrees that the Facebook Movie will win (tho for some reason that escapes me the author decided not to factor in DGA wins, which is a huge deal. As anyone can see when you factor in these Awards the race becomes substantially closer). Remember when all we knew about The Social Network was that it was some kind of Facebook: The Movie! and it sounded ridiculously stupid? Now on the verge of Best Picture of the Year. Wow. It's tough to say, The Social Network has been riding a huge string of wins all year and if we were being conservative I'd still pick it to take home the whole thing Sunday Night.
Chances of Winning: 9/10

The King's Speech (2010): Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin

Luckily no one around here is conservative. The King's Speech is hot baby. It's the hottest flick, still scoring at the theaters, this film had ridiculous legs on its way to its current $104 million total.If I were submitting my ballot right now I'd be writing this one down as my number one, which is what I based a lot of this prediction on. The Academy all comes down to the right combination of momentum, politics and timing. Only when everything lines up does a film walk away with the Best Picture Award. Of course, I was a bit too cynical last year and blew this and most other predictions because I thought AVABAR (2009) would sweep but it turned into The Hurt Locker's (2009) sweep. When I made my predictions last month I again leaned more towards a sweep by The Social Network, which may bite me in the ass. Ugh I predicted a Black Swan / Inception battle over Cinematography? This is looking rough already. Now the only thing left to do is sit back and watch.
Chances of Winning: 10/10