26 February 2012


Well, you found us, folks. About 10 minutes to go now and we'll put this out in unedited, LIVE glory. Contained here are my best predictions as well as how far off I was.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Robert Richardson
Confidence: 70%

Actual Winner: Hugo. Nailed it. I wasn't all that confident to be honest, but it seems as though the competent 3-D blend paid off here.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
Confidence: 90%

Actual Winner: Hugo. Again, this was fairly easy to predict, 2/2 so far.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Sandy Powell
Confidence: 50%

Actual Winner: The Artist. I wasn't really sure about this one, I was hoping that Costume, Art Direction, and Cinematography would go together. Good to know that The Artist is building some momentum. And was that J. Lo's nipple? Spank bank filled!

Best Achievement in Make-up

Predicted Winner: The Iron Lady (2011): Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Iron Lady was seen from a mile away, it's the kind of movie where the make-up outshines the performances and certainly the film itself. A year with some terrible make-up features like J. Edgar (2011) really shows how difficult realistic age make-up actually is.And Cameron Diaz, try to be relevant

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Predicted Winner: A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi (Iran)
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: A Separation. One of the easiest categories to pick of the night. It's a testament to how liberal the Iranian people are despite how oppressively conservative the government is. This is a great film. This dude is right on in this speech, by the way.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Predicted Winner: Octavia Spencer for The Help (2011)
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: Octavia Spencer. Could Xtian Bale be more intense? Could Bérénice Bejo be more hot? This is a great award for her in a pretty competitive category this year. Look at that Standing O. I do still think she looks like a froggie though. Nice jazz to play her out.

Best Achievement in Editing

Predicted Winner: The Artist (2011): Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011). This is an excellent upset, one that I didn't see coming at all, but had really wanted to happen. Its editing was outstanding and staple of what made it so good. This is fantastic, it obviously caught both of the editors off guard as much as anyone else!

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty
Confidence: 85%

Actual Winner: Hugo. So far almost none of the Hugo-favoured awards have disappointed. It's the kind of technically brilliant film that doesn't exactly have a completely spectacular story. Witty thank yous, sound editor. Also Tina Fey has mom arms but Bradley Cooper is really pulling off that 'stash.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Predicted Winner: Hugo (2011): Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
Confidence: 90%

Actual Winner: Hugo. I think they need more jokes about how stupid these awards are. But again, no surprise here, Hugo is cleaning up the technicals as expected. And how much does Cirque du Soleil suck? I couldn't care less about these surrender-monkeys. To be honest, as expected it's as if the Academy is trying to remind us all about how special the movies are. Listen folks, no one needs to be reminded how special movies are. That's why we want to download them for free. There's only so much of a tribute to themselves we can possibly take. I think the camera should just stay on Stacy Keibler.

Best Documentary, Features

Predicted Winner: Pina (2011): Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel
Confidence: 80%

Actual Winner: Undefeated (2011). Nice to see at least a half-way funny presentation from Downey, Jr. and Paltrow. Anyway, this award seemed to be up between Pina and Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (2011), but it seems as though the large teamster contingent of the Academy honoured Undefeated instead. Makes sense. Are they cutting mikes to cut speeches now?

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Predicted Winner: Rango (2011): Gore Verbinski
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: Rango. One of the easiest choices of the year. I think this was one of the best films of any kind this year and it certainly deserves this award. It will be interesting to see a longform list of Animated winners that will eventually be just all Pixar, along with this brilliant work. And Chris Rock needs to get out there more - that shit was hilarious.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Predicted Winner: Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011): Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: Hugo. Wow. Rise of the Planet of the Apes by all accounts seemed like a lock. The Academy, it appears, is really in love with Hugo. It is a shame that no Transformers movie won a Visual Effects award, if anything, that was one thing that franchise really established. Maybe the fourth film will do it. It's also nice Harry Potter got the guy who played Lucius Malfoy to talk about their make-up and visual effects. I mean, c'mon, anyone else from that huge series? 8/12 at the halfway mark.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Predicted Winner: Christopher Plummer for Beginners (2010)
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: Christopher Plummer. This was a no-brainer and a much-deserved award for the oldest dude to receive this award ever. Chris Plummer has the kind of dignity and class that really belongs at this ceremony, the confidence and established demeanor that makes him captivating to watch. He's the grandpa we all want to have getting drunk at Christmas. He still looks like he could die at any moment.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Predicted Winner: The Artist (2011): Ludovic Bource
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Artist. This film needed a great score desperately to fit in the gaps from a lack of dialogue. Ludovic knocked it out of the park and his honour here is no surprise.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Predicted Winner: The Muppets (2011): Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet")
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Muppets. Astounding win, this was great, very well-deserved, one of the best songs of the year created by either a man or a muppet. The most ridiculous category of the night presented by the most ridiculous presenters.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Predicted Winner: The Descendants (2011): Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Descendants. Why are Angelina's arms so disgustingly skinny? Anyway, no surprise here. Dean Pelton has an Oscar. So does the German guy from Beerfest (2006). What do we do now?

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Predicted Winner: Midnight in Paris (2011): Woody Allen
Confidence: 80%

Actual Winner: Midnight in Paris. I wasn't all that certain of this one but it's certainly a good win for the guy. Jeez, we still got all the crappy short subject categories to get through.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Predicted Winner: Raju (2011): Max Zähle, Stefan Gieren
Confidence: 75%

Actual Winner: The Shore (2011). Well, toss-up of the year, who cares.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Predicted Winner: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (2011): Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen
Confidence: 70%

Actual Winner: Saving Face (2011). Dammit. It's so vindicating to nail the short subject winners. I don't think there was really any buzz behind Saving Face, good for them I guess. And the Scorcese drinking game needs to catch on. This may be one of the first callbacks to a presentation at a previous award show, which rules.

Best Short Film, Animated

Predicted Winner: La Luna (2011): Enrico Casarosa
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (2011). Well, double-dammit. La Luna seemed to be the one apparent Short Lock. How the hell are these films even chosen? They all look freaking crazy. 13/20 going into the Big Four.

Best Achievement in Directing

Predicted Winner: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (2011)
Confidence: 90%

Actual Winner: Hazanavicius. I don't think Michael Douglas had any idea how to pronounce that name. This was a big win for him over Marty and Woody, but after the DGA win this was pretty solidly expected.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted Winner: Jean Dujardin for The Artist (2011)
Confidence: 80%

Actual Winner: Jean Dujardin. Billy Crystal is that perfect mix of honourable asshole, isn't he? Dujardin is one weird dude, but I'm glad I got on the side that picked him and not George. Although he can't speak a lick of English. It's incredible that in a year that saw A-List Megastars Pitt and Clooney, as well as severely underawarded Gary Oldman in the same category, this crazy Frenchman pulled away with the statue. And that's just how sexy Dujardin really is.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Viola Davis for The Help (2011)
Confidence: 85%

Actual Winner: Meryl Streep. To be honest, with all of her nominations she hasn't won jack in thirty years and this is deserved. I had picked her originally when the nominations came out last month but I really thought that Violin Davis had the buzz going.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Predicted Winner: The Artist (2011): Thomas Langmann
Confidence: 100%

Actual Winner: The Artist. Man there were some terrible nominees this year. This really may seem like a crazy winner, but in this moment in this false self-questioning of Hollywood's own relevance, the tribute this film pays to Hollywood itself makes it a darling.

I ended the year 16/24, which is my best year doing this, so that's saying something. Those Short Categories killed me and there were some mild upsets here and there. I did lose three categories I was 100% confident about - Editing, Visual Effects, and Animated Short. Oh well. Good night.

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