This is not a bad movie. It's an extreme distance away from being a good movie by any standard, but it's not too bad. The Mechanic (2011) is nothing but a very typical action/conspiracy bullshit roll in the hay. So let's dive in!
This is apparently actually a remake of a 1972 film by the same name starring Charles Bronson. I've never seen that one, my guess is that's also a very typical Bronson action film, one of dozens that comprised Bronson's career and persona. This is really no different besides swapping Bronson for Statham, who really has settled into a nice personality-free action career. Let's ramble on this topic for a tic actually - think about Bronson vs. Statham. Try to think of an impression of both. Who is more memorable or iconic? I mean, Jay's got the baldness and the taking-himself-too seriously aspects, but really he's too silent. Statham's acting is quiet without being angry. He plays these emotionally controlled, strong and silent type characters that just aren't that interesting. I mean, even Master Chief has a bit more personality than Statham.
So that's the guy running this film. I called this an action film tho the action is really very subdued. There aren't a whole lot of explosions until the last few moments and the first half is primarily shots of Statham brooding. None of it is all that interesting. The film trends that narrow line between mysterious origin and confusing lack of information. We never really find out what organisation Statham is working for, because supposedly it doesn't really matter, he just does his job. This is retarded. It's very difficult to judge the stakes and reasoning for much of his actions. He doesn't really have a problem killing his mentor Donald Sutherland (ridiculously phoning in a performance here) because he believes if he doesn't it will just be someone else to kill him. However, the consequences to him refusing the assignment can't be worse than his eventual resolution to kill everyone who hired him anyway. I mean, he kills them after learning they tricked him into killing Sutherland because Sutherland was trying to screw them over. They had no problem against Statham and didn't really treat him poorly or try to conspire against him. It's just really dumb.
Alright, now that we've got that angry rambling over plot and motivation out of the way we can dig into this film. The Mechanic is not the kind of flick that should hold plot as important. It takes itself so seriously though, and takes enough time to show brooding to attempt to establish the emotional state of its characters that when it can't pull off a satisfying sequence of events it detracts from the film. With something like this you've either got to go all the way nuts at this point (see all Nic Cage films) or put the time in for a more satisfyingly good movie (I think of something like The Shooter [2007] that did a nice job with a similar stoic-lead/conspiracy plot that gives a satisfying movie experience). Especially for a Statham movie, this needed to be goofier.
There's this other weird Boondock Saints (2000) kind of vibe of killing "only bad guys." I don't know why they pressed this so hard. Even when Statham and Ben Foster (the only enjoyable actor in this film) prepare to kill this famous Reverend, the film is careful to establish that he's more of a cult leader and also a rapist. Just so we're sure that the people sneaking in and killing a defenseless overweight man in his hotel room aren't morally ambiguous.
As for the action, there are some cool scenes, tho they're all pretty brief. Ben Foster is nearly raped and then kills some huge rival assassin for some reason, which is almost solely an excuse for a fight after he stupidly avoids what could have been an easy kill. The final kill-big-bad scene is also almost too easy, tho the motto of the movie seems to be Amat Victoria Curam, which is latin for "Victory Loves Preparation." There is actually less audacity to the scenario preparation than even a film like The Dark Knight (2008), but by its nature it makes the challenges of the protagonists less difficult and interesting.
So yeah, this film sucked. It doesn't have enough action to make up for its shortcomings and its plotting and characters just aren't that great. It's not necessarily a poorly constructed or shot film but there's just not that much here that's exceptional. A perfect installment for Jason Statham's already vigorous career.
07 February 2011
06 February 2011
The Long Halloween Vol. II: Super Bowl Sunday
by
Roderick Allmanson
at precisely
04:13
Oh yeah! Now you may have been expecting Valentine's Day or even Groundhog Day, both of which have movies equally integral to our communal pop culture. But for this installment of our yearlong look at the greatest holiday TV Specials we turn to the greatest American Weekend of the year, Super Bowl Sunday.
This Sunday has become a de facto nationwide holiday, a day for beer guzzling, nacho-eating and possibly beating that one Patriots fan you hated but had to invite for some reason. The day is virtually known for its TV. As the crowning moment for the most popular sport in America, it's the last remaining must-see event for the population. In years past it's been the only program with the ability to challenge the highest Nielsons of all time (does that mean shit?) and because of that it's also the uh...Super Bowl of Advertising for the year.
So really it's the perfect Day to examine from a Pop Culture perspective. It's the greatest we'll ever share culture simultaneously. Whether you're watching to laugh or cringe at the commercials or to see the asshole you dropped the second week of Fantasy get a Championship Ring, The Big Game has something for everyone. Except Puppy Lovers, that's covered on another channel (Does that Puppy Bowl ref do anything else? Ah, no he doesn't. I still can't believe the Puppy Bowl exists and has a following, actually. It's gaining some good speed as one of Animal Planet's most anticipated programs actually. Can you imagine Mike Ditka's grandkids changing the channel to this from The Game? What a travesty. What a...such a cute travesty.) Anyway, The Super Bowl, regardless of outcome is the place to be tonight. It's a holiday that by its nature necessitates watching Television. It's every broadcaster's dream, truly the Super Bowl of Broadcasting.
We've had a string of excellent Super Bowls, too. From David Tyree's Catch to Harrison's Runback to the simple Rise of Who Dat? Nation, it's been pretty rewarding for NFL fans (and what's rewarding to the viewer is rewarding to advertisers, the Circle of Life continues. Rafiki-style). Will we see the first Rapist to win a Super Bowl this year? Or can Rodgers, Jennings, Woodson, Raji and Matthews bring some pain? Or will Budweiser have better commercials than Coke? As a TV and Football lover, this is it, baby.
There hasn't been a lot of good Super Bowl Films. Wouldn't a Super Bowl Trip make a great Road-Trip movie? Or a dangerously low Nacho Cheese Shortage make a compelling Domestic Drama? I think so. Anyway, while the Super Bowl is known as the lead-in to many good shows, there aren't a whole lot of good shows actually about the Big Game. I can think of one though, which is excellent: "Sunday, Cruddy Sunday" (S10;E12) from The Simpsons:
There are so many incredible moments in this episode. Fred Willard nails the sucker Wally Kogen ("...they [the tickets] seem to be printed on some sort of cracker"), of course named after Jay Kogen and Wallace Wodorsky. There's also a great send-up of Super Bowl Commercials ("The Catholic Church - we've made a few...changes"). Then there's Homer's Super Bowl Fantasy of touching Tom Landry's Wife's Leg. It's non-stop spectacular jokes.
It's also actually pretty accurate in regard to its football referencing. The obvious joke of dubbing-over the Broncos and Falcons playing (as well as Clinton still being president...and still being married to Hillary) is accurate for Super Bowl XXXIII as is the layout of Pro Player Stadium in Miami. Tho there wasn't a safety in Super Bowl XXXIII, the game did air on Fox for Billionaire Tyrant, Rupert Murdoch and John Madden and Pat Summerall commentated. Their angry comments at the finale of the episode is priceless ("Did it strike you as odd that in a Super Bowl show with Dolly Parton we didn't see any football or singing?") and the weird inclusion of Vincent Price is awesome ("Give it some gas, Grandpa!" "Oh, quiet, Jody, you're not helping!").
I also love how after Homer became the Owner of the Denver Broncos in 1996 (Given to him by Hank Scorpio in "You Only Move Twice" [S8;E2]), they became one of the better teams in the league. Prior to that episode, the Broncos had been 0-4 in Super Bowls, including one of the most lopsided Bowls Ever. The joke in "You Only Move Twice" is that the Broncos were a terrible team, having barely achieved .500 in the past two seasons. During the 1996 year though, they went 13 - 3 but lost the Divisional Playoffs to Jacksonville. Clearly when Homer was able to take control of the team in the off season he turned them around tho; they won Back-to-Back Super Bowls the years after Homer became Owner (See Also: George Costanza's tenure with the Yankees - he came in in 1994 in the middle of a 12-year play-off slump, they won The World Series in 1996).
Anyway, it's a Spectacular Day with a great episode here (The Simpsons have some other good Super Bowl Episodes [of course] as well as an inordinate amount of Football References throughout its years, but this one's the best). For food, you had better drink plenty of beer as well as your weight in Hamburgers and Nachos. After all, this is a True American Holiday, excessive consumption is the name of the game.
Go Packers.
This Sunday has become a de facto nationwide holiday, a day for beer guzzling, nacho-eating and possibly beating that one Patriots fan you hated but had to invite for some reason. The day is virtually known for its TV. As the crowning moment for the most popular sport in America, it's the last remaining must-see event for the population. In years past it's been the only program with the ability to challenge the highest Nielsons of all time (does that mean shit?) and because of that it's also the uh...Super Bowl of Advertising for the year.
So really it's the perfect Day to examine from a Pop Culture perspective. It's the greatest we'll ever share culture simultaneously. Whether you're watching to laugh or cringe at the commercials or to see the asshole you dropped the second week of Fantasy get a Championship Ring, The Big Game has something for everyone. Except Puppy Lovers, that's covered on another channel (Does that Puppy Bowl ref do anything else? Ah, no he doesn't. I still can't believe the Puppy Bowl exists and has a following, actually. It's gaining some good speed as one of Animal Planet's most anticipated programs actually. Can you imagine Mike Ditka's grandkids changing the channel to this from The Game? What a travesty. What a...such a cute travesty.) Anyway, The Super Bowl, regardless of outcome is the place to be tonight. It's a holiday that by its nature necessitates watching Television. It's every broadcaster's dream, truly the Super Bowl of Broadcasting.
We've had a string of excellent Super Bowls, too. From David Tyree's Catch to Harrison's Runback to the simple Rise of Who Dat? Nation, it's been pretty rewarding for NFL fans (and what's rewarding to the viewer is rewarding to advertisers, the Circle of Life continues. Rafiki-style). Will we see the first Rapist to win a Super Bowl this year? Or can Rodgers, Jennings, Woodson, Raji and Matthews bring some pain? Or will Budweiser have better commercials than Coke? As a TV and Football lover, this is it, baby.
There hasn't been a lot of good Super Bowl Films. Wouldn't a Super Bowl Trip make a great Road-Trip movie? Or a dangerously low Nacho Cheese Shortage make a compelling Domestic Drama? I think so. Anyway, while the Super Bowl is known as the lead-in to many good shows, there aren't a whole lot of good shows actually about the Big Game. I can think of one though, which is excellent: "Sunday, Cruddy Sunday" (S10;E12) from The Simpsons:
There are so many incredible moments in this episode. Fred Willard nails the sucker Wally Kogen ("...they [the tickets] seem to be printed on some sort of cracker"), of course named after Jay Kogen and Wallace Wodorsky. There's also a great send-up of Super Bowl Commercials ("The Catholic Church - we've made a few...changes"). Then there's Homer's Super Bowl Fantasy of touching Tom Landry's Wife's Leg. It's non-stop spectacular jokes.
It's also actually pretty accurate in regard to its football referencing. The obvious joke of dubbing-over the Broncos and Falcons playing (as well as Clinton still being president...and still being married to Hillary) is accurate for Super Bowl XXXIII as is the layout of Pro Player Stadium in Miami. Tho there wasn't a safety in Super Bowl XXXIII, the game did air on Fox for Billionaire Tyrant, Rupert Murdoch and John Madden and Pat Summerall commentated. Their angry comments at the finale of the episode is priceless ("Did it strike you as odd that in a Super Bowl show with Dolly Parton we didn't see any football or singing?") and the weird inclusion of Vincent Price is awesome ("Give it some gas, Grandpa!" "Oh, quiet, Jody, you're not helping!").
I also love how after Homer became the Owner of the Denver Broncos in 1996 (Given to him by Hank Scorpio in "You Only Move Twice" [S8;E2]), they became one of the better teams in the league. Prior to that episode, the Broncos had been 0-4 in Super Bowls, including one of the most lopsided Bowls Ever. The joke in "You Only Move Twice" is that the Broncos were a terrible team, having barely achieved .500 in the past two seasons. During the 1996 year though, they went 13 - 3 but lost the Divisional Playoffs to Jacksonville. Clearly when Homer was able to take control of the team in the off season he turned them around tho; they won Back-to-Back Super Bowls the years after Homer became Owner (See Also: George Costanza's tenure with the Yankees - he came in in 1994 in the middle of a 12-year play-off slump, they won The World Series in 1996).
Anyway, it's a Spectacular Day with a great episode here (The Simpsons have some other good Super Bowl Episodes [of course] as well as an inordinate amount of Football References throughout its years, but this one's the best). For food, you had better drink plenty of beer as well as your weight in Hamburgers and Nachos. After all, this is a True American Holiday, excessive consumption is the name of the game.
Go Packers.
04 February 2011
Oscar Zone Vol. II; Part II: Acting!
by
Roderick Allmanson
at precisely
06:51
Alright folks, time to kick this Oscar Coverage into high gear. This week we're going through all the Acting Nominations and ranking their chances at grabbing gold. This isn't a very competitive year for Acting so this ought to be short and sweet. Maybe. Let's start with a surefire hit:
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
John Hawkes for Winter's Bone (2010)
There's not a Penguin's Chance in Hell John comes home with this. It's an above average performance but Winter's Bone doesn't really have any momentum or enough esteem to warrant this kind of notice.
Chances of Winning: 1/5
Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Mark's a nice guy but I'm thinking more and more that this isn't the year for The Kids Are All Right. It's too unconventional and the star of this pic certainly wasn't Ruffalo. He doesn't really have the History of Awards love or is the calibre of actor this statue has gone to in years past.
Chances of Winning: 2/5
Jeremy Renner for The Town (2010)
I know last year was Bridge's to lose but I still think that Renner may have deserved it more. These tough gangster-type roles have become pretty common though lately and tho Renner shines here if Wahlberg couldn't get love playing a hard Bostonian, Renner certainly won't. With the popularity of the Boston Crime Sub-Drama seemingly peaking, it doesn't look like we'll see much of this kind of thing again.
Chances of Winning: 3/5
Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech (2010)
Here's one that I wouldn't be surprised causes a big upset. Without The Social Network (2010) grabbing anything in the Supporting Categories, the love of The King's Speech could spill over here. But Rush really captures the screen and has a bit of History with the Academy already. Since Firth is a near guarantee in the Best Leading Actor Category, a win here for Geoff would be pretty huge. Really in a year without Bale's momentum I'd have to give it to him.
Chances of Winning: 4/5
Christian Bale for The Fighter (2010)
The Supporting Actor category has been dominated by intense Villainous Performances for years. It's not since 2006 that we've had a really surprising upset, and this year will be no different. There's no one on this list that captures attention like Bale and while young, his impressive body of work and ridiculous method acting will finally get some recognition. He's snatched just about every award he needs to on his way here, while apparently unemployed (or not), this is sure to fire up his career. Anyone think he'll get one for The Dark Knight Rises (2012)? No? Good.
Chances of Winning: 5/5
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit (2010)
The Academy loved True Grit for some reason this year, tho it's been mostly ignored by other big awards shows. This was an auspicious start for Ms. Steinfeld but she doesn't really stand a chance among the other ladies present.
Chances of Winning: 1/5
Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech (2010)
I think Helena was the weak point of The King's Speech (like being the Punter of the 1985 Chicago Bears, though), but I wouldn't discount an upset. She's had plenty of high-profile roles over the years that haven't been recognised, possibly because she's highly overrated (just like her hubby).
Chances of Winning: 2/5
Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom (2010)
This is the bizarro performance of this list, but it might just be enough to push her over the edge. It would be a surprise win for sure and I know there's some pundits out there pushing for it. I don't believe Animal Kingdom has enough prestige though to really push this through.
Chances of Winning: 3/5
Amy Adams for The Fighter (2010)
Amy's had enough decent roles to build up to this, she's a babe and Hollywood loves honouring its little girls (at least it sure did in the past decade). Doesn't she fit in there perfectly? The performance itself is pretty decent but not enough to really seal the deal for me.
Chances of Winning: 4/5
Melissa Leo for The Fighter (2010)
I was debating this, but Melissa's SAG award was the final indicator for me that she'll probably head home with Oscar come the end of February. She rambled about the Union in her acceptance speech, probably gaining favour with the bum actors voting for her in addition to coming through with a very good performance. The Fighter sweeps the Supporting Awards with no love for Mark Wahlberg? That's cold, Academy.
Chances of Winning: 5/5
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
James Franco for 127 Hours (2010)
Will Jim present an award for himself?! Not a chance. James does a nice job carrying this film but it's really not captivating enough of a performance to bring home Oscar. He's also got far too many goofy roles to his name so far for the Academy to take the hotshot that seriously. Don't worry, he'll put out a James Dean biopic one of these years and get some more love. The rest of the field this year is actually pretty decent.
Chances of Winning: 1/5
Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network (2010)
Another young buck, Jesse's performance was very special in this film, the first scene alone aptly demonstrates both his quickfire acting and capability to deliver Aaron Sorkin's writing as crisp and sharp as it's written. While The Social Network has gotten tons of love, Jesse hasn't (and he should - we forget he's so integral to its success because he slips that much into Zuckerberg) and won't pull anything Oscar Night.
Chances of Winning: 2/5
Jeff Bridges for True Grit (2010)
Is there a current acting Chameleon as adept as Jeff Bridges? He slips in and out of roles seamlessly, his two December pics, True Grit and TRON: Legacy (2010) should demonstrate that. It's possible Jeff repeats (out-Roostering John Wayne helps), and becomes the second actor to win an Oscar for playing the same character as a previous winner (See Also: Brando and De Niro winning both for Vito Corleone).
Chances of Winning: 3/5
Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010)
Was No Country for Old Men (2007) Javier's warm-up? Will this be his last Oscar before he throws his career to the throes of Blockbusterdom? Who knows. The amount of nominations from this picture are surprising and many picked Wahlberg for this fifth slot. Javier is no stranger though and he slips into roles just about as good as Jeff.
Chances of Winning: 4/5
Colin Firth for The King's Speech (2010)
Yep. Not a chance Colin misses this. I knocked him earlier for mere mimicry but he adds some more depth here than visible at first. While The King's Speech may miss out on the Supporting Categories, Firth will bring back some prestige here (Actually their recognition as Best Cast at the SAGs may present otherwise). He's won everything he needs to and won't stop here.
Chances of Winning: 5/5
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone (2010)
Like John, Jennifer does not have the politics or momentum from Winter's Bone to make much of a dent here, nor is it strong enough a performance to turn many heads. Keep plugging along.
Chances of Winning: 1/5
Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole (2010)
What the hell is this movie? Anyway, it's been a while since Nicole's last win, when she actually played an interesting character well, but her Norbits* have been piling up insanely since then. There is so much evidence on display that she's a terrible actor, I find a win here highly unlikely.
Chances of Winning: 2/5
Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine (2010)
Kind of like Amy Adams, Michelle Williams is the kind of good, principled young actress the Academy loves. She already had a nomination for Brokeback Mountain (2005) and has only grown as an Actress since. Blue Valentine has been this maligned movie, snubbed in its rating by the MPAA (eventually reversed) and in just about every other category by the Academy. C'mon. It's not the kind of film that can win Best Picture but with ten nominations there should be some room (at least over 127 Hours). The film was scored by Grizzly Bear! Alright, I'm done
Chances of Winning: 3/5
Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Annette is the kind of overlooked actress that the Academy could recognise Oscar Night. She's been nominated four times in the past twenty years with no Statue to show for it. She got some love from the Globes but placing The Kids Are All Right in the Comedy or Musical Category was just setting Annette up for the win. Like Mark though, the success of this film has been two quiet, especially when compared with the heat behind Black Swan, which was robbed off any Supporting Nominations.
Chances of Winning: 4/5
Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010)
Like Colin and Christian, Natalie has won every major award on her road to the Oscars. She's also been a steady force in Hollywood for the past decade and has the brains and class to be a perfect Poster Girl for the Academy. She's perfect for her role in Black Swan, exhibiting equal parts innocence and malevolence that is really an acting Tour de Force. And she learns from Toulour! Anyway, this is Nats' award to lose this year.
Chances of Winning: 5/5
Tune in next week to watch Norwegian Morning Wood examine the Screenwriting Nominees!
*I'm starting to love the term Norbit, it's defined as such: An actor's terrible film released after his or her Prestige Picture that leaves such a horrid taste in everyone's mouth that that actor loses the Academy Award he or she was nominated for. See: Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls (2006) vs. Norbit (2007).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
John Hawkes for Winter's Bone (2010)
There's not a Penguin's Chance in Hell John comes home with this. It's an above average performance but Winter's Bone doesn't really have any momentum or enough esteem to warrant this kind of notice.
Chances of Winning: 1/5
Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Mark's a nice guy but I'm thinking more and more that this isn't the year for The Kids Are All Right. It's too unconventional and the star of this pic certainly wasn't Ruffalo. He doesn't really have the History of Awards love or is the calibre of actor this statue has gone to in years past.
Chances of Winning: 2/5
Jeremy Renner for The Town (2010)
I know last year was Bridge's to lose but I still think that Renner may have deserved it more. These tough gangster-type roles have become pretty common though lately and tho Renner shines here if Wahlberg couldn't get love playing a hard Bostonian, Renner certainly won't. With the popularity of the Boston Crime Sub-Drama seemingly peaking, it doesn't look like we'll see much of this kind of thing again.
Chances of Winning: 3/5
Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech (2010)
Here's one that I wouldn't be surprised causes a big upset. Without The Social Network (2010) grabbing anything in the Supporting Categories, the love of The King's Speech could spill over here. But Rush really captures the screen and has a bit of History with the Academy already. Since Firth is a near guarantee in the Best Leading Actor Category, a win here for Geoff would be pretty huge. Really in a year without Bale's momentum I'd have to give it to him.
Chances of Winning: 4/5
Christian Bale for The Fighter (2010)
The Supporting Actor category has been dominated by intense Villainous Performances for years. It's not since 2006 that we've had a really surprising upset, and this year will be no different. There's no one on this list that captures attention like Bale and while young, his impressive body of work and ridiculous method acting will finally get some recognition. He's snatched just about every award he needs to on his way here, while apparently unemployed (or not), this is sure to fire up his career. Anyone think he'll get one for The Dark Knight Rises (2012)? No? Good.
Chances of Winning: 5/5
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit (2010)
The Academy loved True Grit for some reason this year, tho it's been mostly ignored by other big awards shows. This was an auspicious start for Ms. Steinfeld but she doesn't really stand a chance among the other ladies present.
Chances of Winning: 1/5
Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech (2010)
I think Helena was the weak point of The King's Speech (like being the Punter of the 1985 Chicago Bears, though), but I wouldn't discount an upset. She's had plenty of high-profile roles over the years that haven't been recognised, possibly because she's highly overrated (just like her hubby).
Chances of Winning: 2/5
Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom (2010)
This is the bizarro performance of this list, but it might just be enough to push her over the edge. It would be a surprise win for sure and I know there's some pundits out there pushing for it. I don't believe Animal Kingdom has enough prestige though to really push this through.
Chances of Winning: 3/5
Amy Adams for The Fighter (2010)
Amy's had enough decent roles to build up to this, she's a babe and Hollywood loves honouring its little girls (at least it sure did in the past decade). Doesn't she fit in there perfectly? The performance itself is pretty decent but not enough to really seal the deal for me.
Chances of Winning: 4/5
Melissa Leo for The Fighter (2010)
I was debating this, but Melissa's SAG award was the final indicator for me that she'll probably head home with Oscar come the end of February. She rambled about the Union in her acceptance speech, probably gaining favour with the bum actors voting for her in addition to coming through with a very good performance. The Fighter sweeps the Supporting Awards with no love for Mark Wahlberg? That's cold, Academy.
Chances of Winning: 5/5
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
James Franco for 127 Hours (2010)
Will Jim present an award for himself?! Not a chance. James does a nice job carrying this film but it's really not captivating enough of a performance to bring home Oscar. He's also got far too many goofy roles to his name so far for the Academy to take the hotshot that seriously. Don't worry, he'll put out a James Dean biopic one of these years and get some more love. The rest of the field this year is actually pretty decent.
Chances of Winning: 1/5
Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network (2010)
Another young buck, Jesse's performance was very special in this film, the first scene alone aptly demonstrates both his quickfire acting and capability to deliver Aaron Sorkin's writing as crisp and sharp as it's written. While The Social Network has gotten tons of love, Jesse hasn't (and he should - we forget he's so integral to its success because he slips that much into Zuckerberg) and won't pull anything Oscar Night.
Chances of Winning: 2/5
Jeff Bridges for True Grit (2010)
Is there a current acting Chameleon as adept as Jeff Bridges? He slips in and out of roles seamlessly, his two December pics, True Grit and TRON: Legacy (2010) should demonstrate that. It's possible Jeff repeats (out-Roostering John Wayne helps), and becomes the second actor to win an Oscar for playing the same character as a previous winner (See Also: Brando and De Niro winning both for Vito Corleone).
Chances of Winning: 3/5
Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010)
Was No Country for Old Men (2007) Javier's warm-up? Will this be his last Oscar before he throws his career to the throes of Blockbusterdom? Who knows. The amount of nominations from this picture are surprising and many picked Wahlberg for this fifth slot. Javier is no stranger though and he slips into roles just about as good as Jeff.
Chances of Winning: 4/5
Colin Firth for The King's Speech (2010)
Yep. Not a chance Colin misses this. I knocked him earlier for mere mimicry but he adds some more depth here than visible at first. While The King's Speech may miss out on the Supporting Categories, Firth will bring back some prestige here (Actually their recognition as Best Cast at the SAGs may present otherwise). He's won everything he needs to and won't stop here.
Chances of Winning: 5/5
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone (2010)
Like John, Jennifer does not have the politics or momentum from Winter's Bone to make much of a dent here, nor is it strong enough a performance to turn many heads. Keep plugging along.
Chances of Winning: 1/5
Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole (2010)
What the hell is this movie? Anyway, it's been a while since Nicole's last win, when she actually played an interesting character well, but her Norbits* have been piling up insanely since then. There is so much evidence on display that she's a terrible actor, I find a win here highly unlikely.
Chances of Winning: 2/5
Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine (2010)
Kind of like Amy Adams, Michelle Williams is the kind of good, principled young actress the Academy loves. She already had a nomination for Brokeback Mountain (2005) and has only grown as an Actress since. Blue Valentine has been this maligned movie, snubbed in its rating by the MPAA (eventually reversed) and in just about every other category by the Academy. C'mon. It's not the kind of film that can win Best Picture but with ten nominations there should be some room (at least over 127 Hours). The film was scored by Grizzly Bear! Alright, I'm done
Chances of Winning: 3/5
Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Annette is the kind of overlooked actress that the Academy could recognise Oscar Night. She's been nominated four times in the past twenty years with no Statue to show for it. She got some love from the Globes but placing The Kids Are All Right in the Comedy or Musical Category was just setting Annette up for the win. Like Mark though, the success of this film has been two quiet, especially when compared with the heat behind Black Swan, which was robbed off any Supporting Nominations.
Chances of Winning: 4/5
Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010)
Like Colin and Christian, Natalie has won every major award on her road to the Oscars. She's also been a steady force in Hollywood for the past decade and has the brains and class to be a perfect Poster Girl for the Academy. She's perfect for her role in Black Swan, exhibiting equal parts innocence and malevolence that is really an acting Tour de Force. And she learns from Toulour! Anyway, this is Nats' award to lose this year.
Chances of Winning: 5/5
Tune in next week to watch Norwegian Morning Wood examine the Screenwriting Nominees!
*I'm starting to love the term Norbit, it's defined as such: An actor's terrible film released after his or her Prestige Picture that leaves such a horrid taste in everyone's mouth that that actor loses the Academy Award he or she was nominated for. See: Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls (2006) vs. Norbit (2007).
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