04 February 2019

Norwegian Morning Wood's Official Oscar Predictions

Well folks it's time once again for our 100% accurate, never-fail Oscar Predictions. The 91st Academy Award Ceremony is three weeks from last night and we have all the hottest bits right here awaiting you.

We've done this for a while now. Here's our all-time record:

2010: 12/24
2011: 14/24
2012: 16/24
2013: 14/24
2014: 20/24
2015: 13/24
2016: 14/24
2017: 13/24
2018: 16/24

Long-term average: 14.7 / 24

That's certainly not great. We can predict about that much. This year is really special because I haven't paid attention at all because there are a lot better things to do with life. Nevertheless, it's time to put myself out there and see what we can come up with. It's actually looking like a weird year in a few categories, so here goes nothing:

Best Picture:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
A Star Is Born

Predicted Winner: Roma

I have gotten this wrong four years in a row. Why are you still reading this website? A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody seem to be the other big contenders, but Roma has the precursor and festival momentum. Now, I hated Roma, but I'd be okay with its win here, especially over Rhapsody, which seems to have massive populist appeal for a movie that to me, didn't live up to the life of Freddie.

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Predicted Winner: Bale

This could go to Rami Malek, who hasn't won all that many awards, but two big ones in SAG and Golden Globes. Bale picked up a globe as well, because of course, Bohemian Rhapsody isn't nearly the musical comedy that VICE is. Still, I like Bale's chances a little bit more. The Academy may love a gay musical biopic, but they'll also love body transformations and heavy leftist political propaganda. I've already expressed my distaste for Rhapsody for not going gay enough, which means I'll likely get this wrong and Malek will win.

Or ever the bridesmaid Bradley Cooper will win to make up for losing Best Picture and missing out entirely on a Director nod. But history isn't so kind to him.

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Predicted Winner: Glenn Close

Colman and GaGa presented far more memeable roles in far more interesting movies, but this just feels like a long overdue Glenn Close award. But for what, actually? 101 Dalmations (1996)? Glenn Close is like someone who you think has had this legendary career but who really hasn't. Still, it feels right to give her the award here. Or it could be like Michael Keaton a few years back who gets totally screwed. With enough precursor support, we feel safe, though.

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali

Even though he just won, this seems like another safe bet. It's that classic bullshit where the white actor gets Lead and the black actor gets Supporting. How is this a thing? Richard E. Grant is leading a bit more in precursor awards, but the easygoing charm of Mahershala coupled with the intensity of his roles and him having a bit of a moment right now with True Detective on the horizon feels right.

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Predicted winner: Regina King

It's become fairly standard to give this to a black woman. Seriously, even when the Academy is not being racist, it's being racist. Amy Adams has enough nominations behind her without a win to make this a little bit of a toss-up, as does previous winners Weisz and Stone. Regina makes the most sense, especially since Beale Street is the kind of lauded, underseen, under-awarded film that everyone seems to like.


Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

For the first time in a long time I'm betting this category lines up with Best Picture. I should probably go with Bohemian Rhapsody for Best Picture, actually. Precedent be damned! Cuaron will have a good night.

Animated Feature:

Incredibles 2, Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson
Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Predicted winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Somehow this might be a really good, justified night for this film that should have had way more recognition than it ended up getting. I named it one of my favorites of the year, it's done fantastic at the DGA and Annie awards and could walk away with a statue here. For once, I'm pumped.

Animated Short:

"Animal Behaviour", Alison Snowden, David Fine
"Bao", Domee Shi
"Late Afternoon", Louise Bagnall
"One Small Step", Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
"Weekends", Trevor Jimenez

Predicted winner: Bao

By far the most emotionally complex and most widely seen, this seems like Bao's bag. This category, however, is totally insane to predict and no one ever gets it right. Based on my thirty seconds of research, though, I 100% guarantee it!

Adapted Screenplay:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Predicted Winner: Spike

Somehow Spike Lee has never won an Oscar, and was only nominated in this category 28 years ago with Do the Right Thing (1989). BlacKkKlansman was pretty popular, widely nominated, and awarded, and likely won't walk away with much else. This seems really fitting. Upsets could be Brad Cooper or Barry, or anyone here, really.

Original Screenplay:

The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Predicted Winner: Deb and Tony

This could go a lot of ways. McKay has been here before and VICE is a little better written than The Big Short (2015). Cuaron could sweep everything. This could be a good consolation for First Reformed, which otherwise has dip this ceremony. Green Book and Favourite are both movies that may not garner much else. We lean towards The Favourite - Yorgos seems to be on a roll with respected, witty, and very original work, even though he didn't actually write this one.


Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

Okay, as much as I hated Roma, it's the most beautiful movie ever and if Cuaron doesn't win, there's no justice.

Best Documentary Feature:

Free Solo, Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
Hale County This Morning, This Evening, RaMell Ross
Minding the Gap, Bing Liu
Of Fathers and Sons, Talal Derki
RBG, Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Predicted Winner: RBG

With Won't You Be My Neighbor out, the presumptive heir is RBG. It seems like too perfect not to win, right? It's timely, well-done, popular, and widely known. Minding the Gap has won more critics awards and Free Solo sounds like that Star Wars movie, so there could be upsets.

Best Documentary Short Subject:

"Black Sheep", Ed Perkins
"End Game", Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
"Lifeboat", Skye Fitzgerald
"A Night at the Garden", Marshall Curry
"Period. End of Sentence.", Rayka Zehtabchi

Predicted Winner: "End Game"

I was actually really pumped for a documentary about grammatical periods. It is not what that movie is about. This could be anything. End Game seems to be the biggest heart-string tugger.

Best Live Action Short Film:

"Detainment", Vincent Lambe
"Fauve", Jeremy Comte
"Marguerite", Marianne Farley
"Mother", Rodrigo Sorogoyen
"Skin", Guy Nattiv

Predicted Winner: "Marguerite"

"Fauve" sounds like the coolest and "Skin" has the most star power, but "Marguerite" seems to have the most love. Good enough for us.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Predicted Winner: Roma

Right? Like, how can it be Best Picture and not Best Foreign Picture.

Film Editing:

BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Vice, Hank Corwin

Predicted Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

I don't think a movie can be nominated this much and be such a populist film without winning anything. Most critics are thinking VICE, and we'll see, but considering what a mess the production of BH was, the editing really works, especially in the final LiveAID scene.

Sound Editing:

Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst
First Man, Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
Roma, Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Predicted Winner: First Man

First Man really fits into that Gravity (2013), Arrival (2016), Dunkirk (2017) kind of feel, but A Quiet Place could get in there. But there's really no sound in that damn movie. I should also note that each of those films was far more popular than First Man, which gives me a little hesitation.

Sound Mixing:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Star Is Born

Predicted winner: A Star Is Born

It's always a rule until it's not. This was a common musical category for a while, but it's lost a bit of a step with La La Land (2016) and Inside Llewyn Davis (2013) missing out recently. In that case, it fits that First Man technical bill again, but no one liked that damn movie. I'm not hinging my bets on two losses here. Black Panther will probably sweep, but big blockbusters don't tend to do well here.

Production Design:

Black Panther, Hannah Beachler
First Man, Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
The Favourite, Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Roma, Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Predicted Winner: Panther

This award has gone to big populist movies a lot lately, and BP is original and intricate enough to earn this award.

Original Score:

BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Predicted winner: Black Panther

I have not listened to this. Isle of Dogs stands out in an otherwise muddled movie, but enough people might picture the Black Panther sound track to pick that. Desplat has won two of the past four awards in this category. Beale Street is cruising the precursors, so we'll see if I eat my words. But I always follow precursors and lose. Let's go Panther!

Original Song:

"All The Stars" from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
"I’ll Fight" from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
"Shallow" from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Predicted winner: "Shallow"

No commentary.

Makeup and Hair:

Mary Queen of Scots

Predicted winner: VICE

C'mon. I need this to make up for my other terrible predictions.

Costume Design:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne

Predicted Winner: Mary Queen of Scots

Listen, this is always some random fucking winner except for when Mad Max (2015) inexplicably won, so we're going with that. There's also only two or three costume designers who ever win, and Byrne won back in 2007 for Elizabeth: The Golden Age. See? You don't remember that damn movie. That's what this category is.

Visual Effects:

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Winner: Thanos

Like, legit that movie's effects were amazing.

That's it, folks. Stay tuned to see what we got right and what we got horribly, horribly wrong!

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