Norwegian Morning Wood's Official Oscar Predictions

Well folks it's time once again for our 100% accurate, never-fail Oscar Predictions. The 91st Academy Award Ceremony is three weeks from last night and we have all the hottest bits right here awaiting you.

We've done this for a while now. Here's our all-time record:

2010: 12/24
2011: 14/24
2012: 16/24
2013: 14/24
2014: 20/24
2015: 13/24
2016: 14/24
2017: 13/24
2018: 16/24

Long-term average: 14.7 / 24

That's certainly not great. We can predict about that much. This year is really special because I haven't paid attention at all because there are a lot better things to do with life. Nevertheless, it's time to put myself out there and see what we can come up with. It's actually looking like a weird year in a few categories, so here goes nothing:

Best Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Predicted Winner: Roma

I have gotten this wrong four years in a row. Why are you still reading this website? A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody seem to be the other big contenders, but Roma has the precursor and festival momentum. Now, I hated Roma, but I'd be okay with its win here, especially over Rhapsody, which seems to have massive populist appeal for a movie that to me, didn't live up to the life of Freddie.

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Predicted Winner: Bale

This could go to Rami Malek, who hasn't won all that many awards, but two big ones in SAG and Golden Globes. Bale picked up a globe as well, because of course, Bohemian Rhapsody isn't nearly the musical comedy that VICE is. Still, I like Bale's chances a little bit more. The Academy may love a gay musical biopic, but they'll also love body transformations and heavy leftist political propaganda. I've already expressed my distaste for Rhapsody for not going gay enough, which means I'll likely get this wrong and Malek will win.

Or ever the bridesmaid Bradley Cooper will win to make up for losing Best Picture and missing out entirely on a Director nod. But history isn't so kind to him.

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Predicted Winner: Glenn Close

Colman and GaGa presented far more memeable roles in far more interesting movies, but this just feels like a long overdue Glenn Close award. But for what, actually? 101 Dalmations (1996)? Glenn Close is like someone who you think has had this legendary career but who really hasn't. Still, it feels right to give her the award here. Or it could be like Michael Keaton a few years back who gets totally screwed. With enough precursor support, we feel safe, though.

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali

Even though he just won, this seems like another safe bet. It's that classic bullshit where the white actor gets Lead and the black actor gets Supporting. How is this a thing? Richard E. Grant is leading a bit more in precursor awards, but the easygoing charm of Mahershala coupled with the intensity of his roles and him having a bit of a moment right now with True Detective on the horizon feels right.

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Predicted winner: Regina King

It's become fairly standard to give this to a black woman. Seriously, even when the Academy is not being racist, it's being racist. Amy Adams has enough nominations behind her without a win to make this a little bit of a toss-up, as does previous winners Weisz and Stone. Regina makes the most sense, especially since Beale Street is the kind of lauded, underseen, under-awarded film that everyone seems to like.

Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

For the first time in a long time I'm betting this category lines up with Best Picture. I should probably go with Bohemian Rhapsody for Best Picture, actually. Precedent be damned! Cuaron will have a good night.

Animated Feature:

Incredibles 2, Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson
Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Predicted winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Somehow this might be a really good, justified night for this film that should have had way more recognition than it ended up getting. I named it one of my favorites of the year, it's done fantastic at the DGA and Annie awards and could walk away with a statue here. For once, I'm pumped.

Animated Short:

"Animal Behaviour", Alison Snowden, David Fine
"Bao", Domee Shi
"Late Afternoon", Louise Bagnall
"One Small Step", Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
"Weekends", Trevor Jimenez

Predicted winner: Bao

By far the most emotionally complex and most widely seen, this seems like Bao's bag. This category, however, is totally insane to predict and no one ever gets it right. Based on my thirty seconds of research, though, I 100% guarantee it!

Adapted Screenplay:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Predicted Winner: Spike

Somehow Spike Lee has never won an Oscar, and was only nominated in this category 28 years ago with Do the Right Thing (1989). BlacKkKlansman was pretty popular, widely nominated, and awarded, and likely won't walk away with much else. This seems really fitting. Upsets could be Brad Cooper or Barry, or anyone here, really.

Original Screenplay:

The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Predicted Winner: Deb and Tony

This could go a lot of ways. McKay has been here before and VICE is a little better written than The Big Short (2015). Cuaron could sweep everything. This could be a good consolation for First Reformed, which otherwise has dip this ceremony. Green Book and Favourite are both movies that may not garner much else. We lean towards The Favourite - Yorgos seems to be on a roll with respected, witty, and very original work, even though he didn't actually write this one.

Cinematography:

Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

Okay, as much as I hated Roma, it's the most beautiful movie ever and if Cuaron doesn't win, there's no justice.

Best Documentary Feature:

Free Solo, Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
Hale County This Morning, This Evening, RaMell Ross
Minding the Gap, Bing Liu
Of Fathers and Sons, Talal Derki
RBG, Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Predicted Winner: RBG

With Won't You Be My Neighbor out, the presumptive heir is RBG. It seems like too perfect not to win, right? It's timely, well-done, popular, and widely known. Minding the Gap has won more critics awards and Free Solo sounds like that Star Wars movie, so there could be upsets.

Best Documentary Short Subject:

"Black Sheep", Ed Perkins
"End Game", Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
"Lifeboat", Skye Fitzgerald
"A Night at the Garden", Marshall Curry
"Period. End of Sentence.", Rayka Zehtabchi

Predicted Winner: "End Game"

I was actually really pumped for a documentary about grammatical periods. It is not what that movie is about. This could be anything. End Game seems to be the biggest heart-string tugger.

Best Live Action Short Film:

"Detainment", Vincent Lambe
"Fauve", Jeremy Comte
"Marguerite", Marianne Farley
"Mother", Rodrigo Sorogoyen
"Skin", Guy Nattiv

Predicted Winner: "Marguerite"

"Fauve" sounds like the coolest and "Skin" has the most star power, but "Marguerite" seems to have the most love. Good enough for us.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Predicted Winner: Roma

Right? Like, how can it be Best Picture and not Best Foreign Picture.

Film Editing:

BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Vice, Hank Corwin

Predicted Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

I don't think a movie can be nominated this much and be such a populist film without winning anything. Most critics are thinking VICE, and we'll see, but considering what a mess the production of BH was, the editing really works, especially in the final LiveAID scene.

Sound Editing:

Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst
First Man, Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
Roma, Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Predicted Winner: First Man

First Man really fits into that Gravity (2013), Arrival (2016), Dunkirk (2017) kind of feel, but A Quiet Place could get in there. But there's really no sound in that damn movie. I should also note that each of those films was far more popular than First Man, which gives me a little hesitation.

Sound Mixing:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Predicted winner: A Star Is Born

It's always a rule until it's not. This was a common musical category for a while, but it's lost a bit of a step with La La Land (2016) and Inside Llewyn Davis (2013) missing out recently. In that case, it fits that First Man technical bill again, but no one liked that damn movie. I'm not hinging my bets on two losses here. Black Panther will probably sweep, but big blockbusters don't tend to do well here.

Production Design:

Black Panther, Hannah Beachler
First Man, Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
The Favourite, Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Roma, Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Predicted Winner: Panther

This award has gone to big populist movies a lot lately, and BP is original and intricate enough to earn this award.

Original Score:

BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Predicted winner: Black Panther

I have not listened to this. Isle of Dogs stands out in an otherwise muddled movie, but enough people might picture the Black Panther sound track to pick that. Desplat has won two of the past four awards in this category. Beale Street is cruising the precursors, so we'll see if I eat my words. But I always follow precursors and lose. Let's go Panther!

Original Song:

"All The Stars" from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
"I’ll Fight" from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
"Shallow" from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Predicted winner: "Shallow"

No commentary.

Makeup and Hair:

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Predicted winner: VICE

C'mon. I need this to make up for my other terrible predictions.

Costume Design:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne

Predicted Winner: Mary Queen of Scots

Listen, this is always some random fucking winner except for when Mad Max (2015) inexplicably won, so we're going with that. There's also only two or three costume designers who ever win, and Byrne won back in 2007 for Elizabeth: The Golden Age. See? You don't remember that damn movie. That's what this category is.

Visual Effects:

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Winner: Thanos

Like, legit that movie's effects were amazing.

That's it, folks. Stay tuned to see what we got right and what we got horribly, horribly wrong!

Coming this Christmas! Sherri Bobbins, Miami Man, Bumblebee Prime

We've been in a black hole all Fall, and in the process missed out on some great previews. The latest crappy Harry Potter movie that's trying to be a thing. An animated Grinch that seemed to direly miss the point. Another Creed. Another Ralph. Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) that I can't figure out was good or bad. Another Robin Hood movie for some reason lol. And a Spider-Man animated film that is actually pretty amazing. Oh, Mortal Engines (2018), haha man that looked stupid.

This "Road to a Blockbuster" column has been going strong for a while here at Norwegian Morning Wood - I suppose we just wrapped up a month's worth of critical introspection with a few quick lines. There's your Fall Blockbuster season. It was pretty rough. But we need to dig a little deeper for a bunch of releases scattered across this week and the Holiday Season! Let's dive in!

Sherri Bobbins Returns

I've been singing you songs all day I'm not a bloody jukebox

Even as a kid I could not give less than a flip about Mary Poppins (1964). Maybe it was just the weird way everyone was totally okay with this random magic chick popping in and zapping everything. Something never sat right with me. Young Dick van Dyke is pretty amazing and although I'm more a fan of Blonde Julie Andrews from The Sound of Music (1965), her role is certainly iconic here. The movie is significant enough that other movies are made about making this movie. That one-two punch for Julie Andrews is actually damned amazing.

So we have Mary Poppins Returns (2018) which is really just the latest in a long line of Disney re-hashes in their bid to take over the world. Like, none of these movies are good. Except The Jungle Book (2016), that was actually super underrated. These are worse than superhero movies taking over. It's totally derivative. Returns is at least some attempt at continuing the story, but I get the impression that it'll drip nostalgia and fan service in the cringiest way. I have no interest in settling in for a warm fuzzy trip down memberberry lane, especially when I don't even like the original source material.

I'm not sure exactly why that is. I usually enjoy musicals and I'm a big fan of silly cute animation. Mary Poppins just always feels so smug and I hate winking at the audience. In the end I'm too cynical for the cheer she brings to the little children. But seriously, she's like a witch, right? She probably fucking eats these kids.

All that said, the crew behind this is pretty good. Emily Blunt is very reliable and she pairs this with A Quiet Place (2018) to have one of the stronger 2018s. Ben Whishaw and Emily Mortimer are great additions along with some classic actors like van Dyke, Angela Landbury, and Julie Walters for some reason. Gotta appeal to the crowd who actually saw the 1964 flick in theaters I suppose. Director Rob Marshall is also a real safe pick for the modern musical. It's also got Lin Manuel-Miranda who I'm just totally over. I mean, he's okay but everyone thinks he's the greatest artist of the century. He's the epitome of New York Bubble. Drives me crazy. It ought to be clear that I'm not that into this and will totally skip it.

Mermaid Man and Barnacle Boy

We've also got Aquaman (2018) in a few days. First in Entourage and now real life! Word is this movie is just bonkers and insane and makes no sense in all the best ways. Somehow Jason Mamoa and Aquaman are perfect casting and this could be one of those few great DCEU films.

As long as he's surfer bro we're gonna be fine

I stay up late at night wondering what is going to happen to this crappy cinematic universe. What kind of world do we have where Batman and Superman movies fail and the Wonder Woman and Aquaman movies knock it out of the park? So much of this rides on casting. The MCU largely works because the three leads of Downey, Evans, and Hemsworth just own each of their roles. Affleck was never right and while Cavill could have and should have been a great Superman, Synder really wasted him. Gadot and Mamoa, it's up to you.

Director James Wan is more famous from horror films and Furious 7 (2015), otherwise known as the second-best Fast and Furious movie. He's already proven to be a great, conscientious, and marketable director, and a cast rounded out by Amber Heard, Patrick Wilson, along with Nicole Kidman, Dolph Lundgren, Willem Dafoe (is that all for real?) makes an intriguing picture, even if it's totally just the exact film as THOR (2011) but underwater. Who cares, I liked THOR. Also Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as Black Manta who totally has the exact bomb-ass helmet and laser eyes from the comics and Superfriends TV show. I'm so pumped about Black Manta. That to me just shows that Wan's sensibilities are in the right place.

Ultimately Aquaman caps off an incredibly competitive Superhero year, including Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018) which literally just happened. I think it can stand on its own, but it's not going to bust through any records. Disney is pretty bold in not backing down from Mary Poppins Returns' release date, but also totally right that they'll come out ahead.

Bumbletron

Competing most directly for dumb male butts in seats is Bumblebee (2018), the first of what we can only hope to be many Transformers stand alone spin-off films. The trailer got a lot of hype, I didn't much care because these movies are so bad, but this is also the first non-Michael Bay movie, so there's hope! Sweet Primus there's hope.

It's a paired down flick featuring, to our knowledge, just the Yellow Autobot Bumblebee and I guess the Decepticon Blitzwing? Bumblebee teams up with Hailee Steinfeld, who is awesome but hasn't quite matched her work in True Grit (2010) against both that jerk and John Cena, who I hope punches through a wall or something. Reserved WWE Films The Marine (2006) and 12 Rounds (2009) John Cena is not great. Insane Blockers (2018) and Sisters (2015) John Cena - now that's something I can get behind. He works best as a meme, people.

Anyway, this has been getting good reviews, but for a Transformers movie that's like being the smartest kid with down syndrome. At best we already got perfection with this "Kid befriends Space Robot" in The Iron Giant (1999) and a surprising amount of other movies. As franchises mature, though, and folks realize that something like Age of Extinction (2014) is past its Optimus Prime and over the top, yet STILL make a movie worse with The Last Knight (2017), it's nice to see the powers that be try something new. This has worked well with the X-Men franchise which long ago got tired of making the same X-Men movie and started doing period pieces, comedy pieces, lone gun westerns, and psychological horror movies (in addition to you know, also the same crap). I'd like to see where this goes.

At any rate it gives me an excuse to watch one of my favourite videos ever. Long live Oreobot! I mean, if they don't play John Cena's theme during every single explosion they've really missed out on a golden opportunity here.

There really is something beautiful about not even remotely trying to hide your product placement. Or male gaze for that matter. Michael Bay is not deceptive. Deceptivecon. Moving on.

Second Act

I don't know what this is. Jennifer Lopez is someone who gets fired and steals someone's identity or something? I half-watched the trailer. I think I have the just of it.

Haha, alright, cool.

First of all, there's a lot of "Woman YOUR age" jokes, which I think are supposed to land except that Jennifer Lopez turns 50 next year and totally looks 30. That ends up being a rough call on women who absolutely look great for their age. They should have cast someone who has aged horribly. Leah Remini is a year younger and right there!

There's actually a bit of madcap humour here and Migo Ventiglia or whatever is really rocking that This is Us moustache everywhere he goes I guess. This is not terrible counter-programming for old women who don't want to see any of the crap I listed above and to be honest, it's like #2 on movies on this list that I'm interested in right now.


Welcome to Hell

Or Marwen. Marwen, need to get that right. This looks terrible. Just truly awful. Steve Carell is some PTSD survivor living out his fantasies through puppets or something. I think it's problematic at best that he fantasies women in his life as objects for him to play with and control his destiny and at worst it's... well, probably that. Robert Zemeckis is one of our greatest directors ever for everything he did in the 80s and most of the 90s, but damn has he fallen down the shitstorm rabbit hole. I'll give him credit for maintaining a drive to make really weird animated stuff, but his sense of story and mass appeal has gone out the window. It's not great.

Surecock Holmes

There's a nice callback for long time readers. I've avoided everything here. Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly are Holmes and Watson - done, I'm in, it'll be great. Probably. For some reason Sherlock has been done to death lately, on literally every level - period movies with Downey, Jr, modern-day stuff with Cumberbatch, and that one with Lucy Liu on CBS that no one cared about. Arthur Conan Doyle's creation is still really popular, who knows why. I suppose it's just public domain and it's easy to reproduce the beats with really simple notes to go on without being so specific as to offend any serious fans. Easy as that. Hopefully this is funny or something.

Vice

Adam McKay's takedown of Dick Cheney really appealed to Golden Globes voters and could make a splash with the Academy. I didn't think The Big Short (2015)'s method of parceling out fast-paced, "you don't really need to understand these crooks" method of storytelling really worked, but individual scenes work incredibly well. McKay is still a phenomenal director and I'm curious how he does with the bio pic, especially for a figure no one really likes.

The cast is top to bottom amazing, from Christian Bale to Sam Rockwell, Steve Carell, Amy Adams, Alison Pill, Eddie Marsan, Lily Rabe, and Tyler Perry for some reason. I'm disappointed that Tyler Perry is making another appearance in a non-Tyler Perry film that's not randomly in Star Trek (2009) or his ridiculously good work in Gone Girl (2014). Haha, I forgot Alex Cross (2012) and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (2016). Tyler Perry's non-Tyler Perry work is insane.

I digress. This ought to be fun.

That about wraps it up for the year. What are you looking forward to seeing in December?