Oscar Zone III: A Closer Look at the Best Director Nominees

On now to Part III of our scrappy, haphazard Oscar coverage, the Directors. Considering how often non-white men are nominated for this category, this should be a big year, especially when also considering the possible favourites. Let's dive in:

Lee Daniels for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

The amount of awards this terribly titled film is up for should be sinking in by now. Lee, the second black dude ever nominated by the Academy is a pretty far long shot to win, but there is a possibility that if Precious is closed out of everything else he sneaks in. Although it won't be closed out of Supporting Actress for sure. So, chances are unlikely.

Chances of Winning: 1/5

Jason Reitman for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Reitman's got some history with his Juno (2007) nomination, and clearly has enough talent to be among Jim and Q here (if not more). He's not really established enough with the Academy to make a true splash, and his competition is a bit too daunting this year to make a good run. This will really be a battle between the next three powerhouses.

Chances: 2/5

Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Q hasn't been acknowledged by the Academy for some time now, by Basterds is in every way his best film since Pulp Fiction (1994) and he's enough of an icon by now to win the close calls instead of losing them. I think it's going to be easier to give the film Supporting Actor for Chris Waltz and maybe screenplay instead of Director here. All three of these projects have been very long gestating ideas with an incredible amount of work poured into them. Of the three however, the next two should prove more significant. Read on:

Chances: 3/5

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker (2008)

It's incredible to me that a woman directed this movie. Not to say that women can't direct or anything, it's just that in particualr this is such a guy's movie. It's about three testosterone-loaded soldiers fighting and bonding in Iraq. And it's done really well! If that's not enough for Kathryn to win, the fact that she pulled off this excellent film in some of the harshest filming conditions in modern memory should give tremendous credit to her cause. At the end of the day, though, I don't believe she can beat Jim, which will be the greatest robbed director in the history of the world (Maybe not. What is it with the Academy loving Native American stories? Is it all Brando or what?).

Chances: 4/5

James Cameron for AVABAR (2009)

He'll win, we'll all cry, end of story. AVABAR is pretty significant as essentially becoming the highest-ever grossing film in all the universe really solely on impressive visuals, continuous word of mouth, and the director. Jim sold this film. For this reason alone his achievement will be recognized by the Academy, along with his arduous task of creating such a blockbuster from scratch, creating new technology to fit his personal vision like no other director before him. That's right. His name fueled one of the greatest movie successes ever in an age where prior franchise knowledge is moreoften taken for granted. It really actually IS impressive, but c'mon. The film was fucking garbage.

Chances: 5/5

Oscar Zone II: A Closer Look at the Best Actor and Actress Nominees

Today in Part II of Norwegian Morning Wood's spotty Oscar coverage, we're looking at the top two acting awards, Best Actor and Actress. At first glance both appear locked up, but there's always surprises in store come Sunday. Maybe. Anyway, let's get into it:

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)
 Basically playing a character from Mad Men set in a British University. Nothing too special, then again for some reason everyone loves Mad Men, so who knows what will happen. I know, that's who.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)
Historical figures are pretty well-received by the Academy, and well-played ones are even more well-received. This isn't Morg's year, though, maybe if this film had come out in 2004 (when Eastwood was THE directorial dick to suck) or 2005 (when Phil won for Capotes) he'd have a chance. Not this year, though, especially because he already has a statue. More on that later.
Chances: 2/5

George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Clooney's gotten the most nominations and awards for this role that he's had since Mike Clayton (2007), and since he was ignored then, he may get a redemption here with a much more positive character. He did get an award for Syriana (2005) recently (apparently he only makes good films in odd-numbered years) which may hurt or help his chances. Based on my Morgan logic, he's boned. Up in the Air is his best performance in a while though, arguably better than Clayton, so I'm giving him more cred than the grizzled black guy.
Chances: 3/5

Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2008)
As you can tell by now, the Academy Awards really aren't about performances at all. It's about poltics, when films come out and how they're distributed, interesting stories about actors or situations during filming, and finally, most importantly, lobbying by studios and producers showing the film to the right people. All that said, Jeremy Renner should win this based on performance. His is the most interesting character on this list and he does a better job than anyone else at showcasing a gruff, hard-to-like exterior at the forefront, then being beaten and melting down later. It's awesome. THAT said, because he's the best performer and the Academy IS all politics, he won't win.
Chances: 4/5

Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)

Here's what I was getting at earlier. This will be like John Wayne's win for True Grit (1969). Not really his best performance, but it's more of a reward for a lifetime of underrecognised yet extremely influential roles. I'm not beyond the irony that next year the Coen Bros are remaking True Grit with Jeff in John's role, don't worry, Jeff will get his statue here, despite not being the best among the nominees. That Clooney and Morg already have statues will prevent the Academy from giving them another while Jeff has none. Then again, this role is very like Mick Rooney's Wrestler (2008) last year, and the statue ended up going to Over-honoured Sean Penn for Milk (2008). So who knows, my logic is probably shitty, but I've got a feeling of all the categories (except Best Animated, which by the way, since Up [2009] is also the only animated film to be nominated for Best Picture, doesn't that kind of already imply that it's already the best animated film? Retarded), this one is the greatest lock.
Chances: 5/5



Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)
I've never fucking heard of this movie, nor do I know anything about it. Instead of researching and making a good judgment, I'm using that basis as proof it has no chance. You need some kind of sizable buzz to make a run at things, and I'm content saying my awareness is in that buzz radius. Fucked.
Chances: 1/5

Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)

In this post I gave her the "should win," although that's probably wrong. She does a bang-up job but in the end is only average compared to the powerhouse top three following her.
Chances: 2/5

Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
This is where it starts getting tough. Despite the completely impronounceable name and awful, awful title, Gab's performance is very strong in a field that usually awards skinny white women. Thus while she'd for sure be an upset to beat Streep and Sandy, her win would be pretty monumental. Since Mo'nique's got Supporting Actress about locked up (hehe, probably more than Jeff has Actor), it might be a stretch to give the film with the worst title of the year both Female Acting awards. Then again, who knows.
Chances: 3/5

Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)
This is basically the obligatory Streep nomination that comes around just about every year. It's practically taken for granted that she's going to be the best, iconic role in any shitty movie she does. Voters may be jaded to her presence by now, but on the other hand, her history with the Academy is ridiculously strong and despite her nominations, she hasn't actually won all that many (she's batting around .125) Is Julia Childs the one to help her slugging percentage? Fuck no.
Chances: 4/5

Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)

Before I get into this, I need to admit how ridiculous this win will be. Sandy sucks, really, I haven't liked her in a film since The Bus that Couldn't Slow Down (1994). She was so sweet then! After that, clearly declining hotness, uninteresting roles (including this one) and not much else going on. Until 2009 suddenly became her biggest year ever. Completely off the radar for young, straight men, Sandy has so much momentum coming of one of her lifetime biggest years in every way, there's no way she doesn't walk home with Oscar. The Blind Side has emotionally manipulated enough people (almost as much as AVABAR) to get the votes and this contest should be over.
Chances: 5/5

Oscar Zone: A Closer Look at the Best Picture Nominees

It's Oscar Week in full swing by now, so for the next couple of days we're taking a closer look at all the nominees from the most major categories. The categories that people really care about (Oh snap, Dark Knight got Best Sound Editing, saints be praised) here, I speak of Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Directing and Best Screenplay (Adapted, then Original). Since Best Picture is currently the most swollen and bloated entry, we'll start there. Let's take a look at the noms and their relative chances:

The Blind Side (2009): Nominees to be determined

This is generally the most feel-good nominee, a story of hope and overcoming odds with high school football standout Michael Orr who was then drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in 2009. My impression of this film is that it propagates a notion that poor young black men can't get anywhere in society without a middle class white woman's help. But that's just me. It's a supposed tear-jerker story, but I could jerk off to more tears than this. It's exactly like every other inspirational sports film ever made, Remember the Titans (2000) was more deserving for Best Picture than this. Next. 
Chances of Winning: 1/10

An Education (2009): Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey

Here's that movie that no one has heard of until the nominees were announced. Apparently it's awesome, I don't know, I haven't seen it (no one has). I frankly don't even know what it's about exactly, I think it's some 1960s or 50s teacher who has some problems I guess. Anyway, Pete Sarsgaard is pretty reliably sweet. I mean, look at this selling point:



Anyway, no one has heard of this, it won't win, don't worry.
Chances: 2/10

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness

Every time I hear this movie it pisses me off. I think it's because that damn title takes far too long to say and just means absolutely nothing. Why isn't it just called Precious? I'm so fucking lost. It's not like The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, which is also long and cumbersome, but at least reads like a sentence-long synopsis (if not an unnecessary one). It's like if There Will Be Blood (2007) was instead named There Will Be Blood: Based on the Novel Oil! by Upton Sinclair (2007). Forget about it. I mean, I kind of liked Push (2009), don't be hatin on Push. Anyway, the impression I got from this film is that it's like torture porn for fat black chicks, it's real exploitative and its genuine message is befuddled in its purposeful deplorability.
Chances: 3/10

Up (2009): Jonas Rivera

A fantastically good film, but Pixar rules the Animated Feature category, not Best Picture. No animated film has ever won (would they change that stat if AVABAR won?) and in this year, with this competition, Up is not going to be the one do buck the trend.
Chances: 4/10

District 9 (2009): Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham

This was the one 2009 film I picked for this list, although The Hurt Locker (2008) probably actually deserves it more now that I'm reevaluating (man, that list was bad). I'm very impressed that District 9 has even gotten this far considering its production and subject matter (then again, Peter Jackson helped) and its success without any major stars or toylines behind it astounds me in this age (new from Mattel! Explore strange moral quandries with the Forced-Prawn Killing Play Gun! $49.95!). It's a bit too far outside Hollywood (yes, despite Peter Jackson's involvement) to take a real crack at Best Picture though.
Chances: 5/10

A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

This movie, as incomprehensible as it is, is very well done, and the Coens have a recent history with the academy, which could help their chances. It's really too specific, too overladen and in general too insane to really be a serious contender though. Like the other films in the Coens' upper echelon (Fargo [1996], The Man Who Wasn't There [2001]), this will be forever remembered as a very good film, but not much of an award winner.
Chances: 6/10

Up in the Air (2009/I): Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman

After the big three of AVABAR, Hurt Locker, and Basterds, Up in the Air has the next most chance to pull off a win. It's done well at some other award shows and critics choices and if any of those three split votes up, Up in the Air could pull an upset. It doesn't exactly have the feel of a Best Picture winner, however, nor is its plot easily summed up in interesting ways for many people to be interested in it other than, "it's good! It's up for some awards!" This is the kind of thinking that let Slumdog Millionaire (2008) win, however, so hey, you never know.
Chances: 7/10

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Lawrence Bender

Basterds in many ways was Tarantino's return to very good film making. Like, Oscar-contending film making. While its competition may be difficult in some categories, he's bound to come away with at least screenplay or director, Chris is a lock for Supporting, and there's actually a good chance if AVABAR and The Hurt Locker split the votes that he comes away with a Best Pic statue too. It's kind of funny, though, its winning depends more on people liking Tarantino than the film's real merit.
Chances: 8/10

The Hurt Locker (2008): Nominees to be determined

The impression I get from most of the online community is that about everyone is pushing for this one. Actually, about anyone who has seen it is pushing for this one. It is the best film of 2009. That's all there is. If you doubt it at all, you haven't seen the thing. Watching it, I got that feeling I had when I saw Slumdog for the first time. It's unspeakably good. Any other year this category would have been locked up months ago.

Chances: 9/10

AVABAR (2009): James Cameron, Jon Landau

AVABAR's got everything going for it right now and is the heavy favourite. If any film beats it, it'll be a huge upset. But really, looking back, AVABAR fucking sucked. It really sucked. No part of it is really worthy of the Best Picture of the year. Sure it's a huge technical achievement, but was it worth sacrificing any kind of important or relevant, or even well-told story? Then again, all of that is probably what most of the population wants. Simplicity over integrity. It wins.
Chances: 10/10