Oscar Zone V: I was wrong.

Well, I hope all of you out there are nursing some comforting Oscar Hangovers, but it's time to wrap up Norwegian Morning Wood's really sketchy Academy Awards Coverage. Over the past few days I've looked deeper into some topics, mostly complaining about AVABAR (2009), which ended up losing any important award, so naturally I'm overjoyed.

What follows is a revision of my original predictions. To refresh your memory, RED were nominees that I thought WOULD WIN. In BLUE were the noms that SHOULD HAVE WON. PURPLE means I thought the deserving nominee would win. All these remain on my list but in addition GREEN represents the actual winner. Got it? Nope? Good. I ended up pretty split, 12/24, but I'll note I called every acting, directing and Best Picture, screenplay really rocked my world. I consider that category a total oddball award now, the past three winners include Juno (2007), Milk (2008) and Precious: Blah Blah by Sapphire (2009). Without adieu, here we go:

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon for Invictus (2009)
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger (2009/I)
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station (2009)
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones (2009)

Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Easy.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Coraline (2009): Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog (2009): John Musker, Ron Clements
The Secret of Kells (2009): Tomm Moore

Up (2009): Pete Docter

Again, no brainer.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Crazy Heart (2009): T-Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham("The Weary Kind")

Faubourg 36 (2008): Reinhardt Wagner, Frank Thomas("Loin de Paname")
Nine (2009): Maury Yeston("Take It All")
The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Down in New Orleans")
The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Almost There")

Nice, I'm 3/3 at this point.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

The Hurt Locker (2008): Mark Boal

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger (2009/I): Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman
A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up (2009): Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy

This was my first indication that The Hurt Locker would have a big night. It wasn't going to be a one-and-go kind of Best Picture, it would sweep or nothing, like Slumdog (2008) before it. Cheating Big Q out of what I thought would be an easy award for him was the first step.

Best Short Film, Animated

French Roast (2008): Fabrice Joubert
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (2008): Nicky Phelan, Darragh O'Connell
La dama y la muerte (2009): Javier Recio Gracia

Logorama (2009): Nicolas Schmerkin

Wallace and Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death' (2008) (TV): Nick Park

The little clip of Logorama shown right before it won pretty much convinced me this was justified. Haha, definitely the first time I had seen any of these films. I mean, c'mon, where am I going to go see fucking French Roast on a Saturday night?

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province (2009) (TV): Jon Alpert, Matthew O'Neill
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner (2009): Daniel Junge, Henry Ansbacher
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (2009) (TV): Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
Królik po berlinsku (2009): Bartosz Konopka, Anna Wydra

Music by Prudence (2010): Roger Ross Williams, Elinor Burkett

Cool. I guessed in the dark and failed. Let's move on.

Best Short Film, Live Action

The Door (2008): Juanita Wilson, James Flynn
Istället för abrakadabra (2008): Patrik Eklund, Mathias Fjällström
Kavi (2009): Gregg Helvey
Miracle Fish (2009): Luke Doolan, Drew Bailey

The New Tenants (2009): Joachim Back, Tivi Magnusson

Same with Animated Short, the three seconds of The New Tenants was definitely the coolest and I even recognized some actors in it. Should have called this one right with some research. But fuck that, we don't believe in research here at Norwegian Morning Wood.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Il divo (2008): Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano

Star Trek (2009): Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow

The Young Victoria (2009): John Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore

I was pumped to see this. Big blockbusters are usually nominated for things like this and lose. It shows that Trek really was a slight level beyond the normal idiotic summer fling. Even if it was just Makeup. I will note at this point that Stiller was the single best moment of the past ten years of Oscar.

Take a break and look at this thing:

 

Boo yah! Ok, let's move on.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

District 9 (2009): Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell
An Education (2009): Nick Hornby
In the Loop (2009): Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Geoffrey Fletcher

Up in the Air (2009/I): Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

Probably the most surprising award of the night, this should have been D-9 or Up in the Sky's award outlet but instead Precious snatched it up. It's pretty notable that such a small, crum-riddled film walked away with some significant awards. Then again, when the film has its source material explicitly shown in the awful, sentence long title, I guess comparisons with the source is too inevitable. Or something. I don't know. Hooray for blacks here, they couldn't nab the Director Award.


Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Penélope Cruz for Nine (2009)
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart (2009)
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

No shit, this was easy.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

AVABAR (2009): Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): David Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith
Nine (2009): John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Sherlock Holmes (2009): Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Young Victoria (2009): Patrice Vermette, Maggie Gray

Yep, let's keep rolling.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Bright Star (2009): Janet Patterson
Coco avant Chanel (2009): Catherine Leterrier
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): Monique Prudhomme
Nine (2009): Colleen Atwood

The Young Victoria (2009): Sandy Powell

I was kind of disappointed here, apparently this was that chick's third costume Oscar, apparently she rules. I didn't think The Young Victoria was notable at all beyond any other typical 19th-Century-Whatever, but then again, those kind of flicks always win Costume Design. I probably could have seen this coming, actually.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

AVABAR (2009): Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle

The Hurt Locker (2008): Paul N.J. Ottosson

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Wylie Stateman
Star Trek (2009): Mark P. Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin
Up (2009): Michael Silvers, Tom Myers

More on Hurt Lock's roll to the top. The sound timing is sweet I guess, I've never really had the ears to tell what makes one film over another in this one.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

AVABAR (2009): Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson

The Hurt Locker (2008): Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano
Star Trek (2009): Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009): Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson

Michael Bay will have to bide his time until Transformers 3: Shitfuck Express (2011) to get that Oscar, along with the 16 others he's due.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

AVABAR (2009): Mauro Fiore

Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009): Christian Berger
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009): Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker (2008): Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Robert Richardson

This was probably the only important award that AVABAR won and congradu-fucking-lations, apparently Cinematography is now the Academy's dumping ground for really really good blockbuster-type films that don't really deserve a significant amount of other awards and naturally the 'BAR abides.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

AVABAR (2009): James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker (2008): Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes (2009): Hans Zimmer

Up (2009): Michael Giacchino

This took me for surprise, listening to the montage I found myself really only able to remember Surecock's Score as it was playing, which should be a sign that it was really the only memorable nominee, but whatever. It's a good credit to Animated films both that Fantastic Mr. Fux and Up were nominated and Up won.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

AVABAR (2009): Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andy Jones

District 9 (2009): Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken
Star Trek (2009): Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton

Yeah no shit.

Best Documentary, Features

Burma VJ: Reporter i et lukket land (2008): Anders Østergaard, Lise Lense-Møller

The Cove (2009): Nominees to be determined

Food, Inc. (2008): Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers (2009): Judith Ehrlich, Rick Goldsmith
Which Way Home (2009): Rebecca Cammisa

Haha! I don't know how I called this.

Best Achievement in Editing

AVABAR (2009): Stephen E. Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron
District 9 (2009): Julian Clarke

The Hurt Locker (2008): Bob Murawski, Chris Innis

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Sally Menke
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Joe Klotz

The Hurt Locker tended to win every category I thought AVABAR would take but another film deserved. I'm going to take some credit and say I was almost half right, in that AVABAR deserved less than half the awards it was nominated for, but I just missed the film that should have righteously won. Apparently, it was Hurt Lock every time.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Ajami (2009)(Israel)
Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009)(Germany)

El secreto de sus ojos (2009)(Argentina)

Un prophète (2009)(France)
La teta asustada (2009)(Peru)

Cool.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)

George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)
Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)
Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2008)

None of the acting categories were even close, but this one in particular I think could have gone to about anyone. Glad it went to Jeff, though.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)

Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)
Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)

She's still not as good as she was in The Bus That Couldn't Slow Down (1994).

Best Achievement in Directing

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker (2008)

James Cameron for AVABAR (2009)
Lee Daniels for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Jason Reitman for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Big event, big award for chick of the year, Kate. Check my thoughts here for Hurk Lock's righteous win.

Best Motion Picture of the Year:

AVABAR (2009): James Cameron, Jon Landau
The Blind Side (2009): Nominees to be determined
District 9 (2009): Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham
An Education (2009): Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey

The Hurt Locker (2008): Nominees to be determined

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Lawrence Bender
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness
A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up (2009): Jonas Rivera
Up in the Air (2009/I): Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman

YEAH!! S my C and J on my B's, AVABAR!

Oscar Zone IV: A Closer Look at the Best Screenplay Nominees

Well, tonight's the big night everybody, in almost ten minutes now we'll see who comes home with the that little golden balden phallic man. For our final entry examining all the categories anybody cares about, we're checking out both the Original and Adapted Screenplay awards. Read on, then see if all of these are really just bullshit.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

The Messenger (2009/I): Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman
This is supposedly a fantastic movie, or at least Woody's pretty decent. I've never heard of it, going by those standards it doesn't have enough buzz to win. I love this self-indulgent theory.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Up (2009): Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy
I love how animated pieces manage to cram so much more story into a limited running time than most live-action films. The opening sequence's significant arc could justify a win, but in general, Animated Films don't win awards like this. If Wall-E (2008) couldn't do it, I have some heavy doubts for Up's chances, but an honour here would be refreshing.
Chances: 2/5

The Hurt Locker (2008): Mark Boal
While The Hurt Locker's screenplay is very good, I think the acting and directing is better. While the research is significant, it loses points on its supposed innaccuracies depicting soldier life and combat. If this film becomes a sweeper like Slumdog Millionaire (2008) though, its a given they nail this one too. Well, probably not.
Chances: 3/5

A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Who the hell knows what this movie was really about, but it's well-written and concisely told despite its obliqueness. It's unique in its wide-ranging array of problems, diagressions, and other complications afflicting the main character that are nonetheless tied together and maintained through good scene and beat structure. The Coens are no stranger to writing wins (2), but I think the insane ending holds this back. Or throws it forward, who knows.
Chances: 4/5

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Quentin Tarantino

The film works on just a handful of powerful scenes, plots thrust forward by long dialogue then sudden action, with immediately recognizable and identifiable characters, good and evil. It's the best choice for Screenplay, and its also a way to placate the Big Q without giving him as much credit as a Best Picture. It's essentially minimalist, giving much credit to the viewer to follow along, ignoring unimportant scenes and streamlining what could have been a very sloppy narrative. It should and will win. Basically, one of the only categories I'm going to be satisfied with.
Chances: 5/5



Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

In the Loop (2009): Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
See, The Messenger.
Chances: 1/5

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Geoffrey Fletcher
Geoff doesn't even know how to write a good title, this thing can't win. It's a pretty tight and powerful film, but not exactly exceptional enough to win. There's an outside chance he gets it based on the film's sheer amount of nominations and little chances in some of the most major categories. It would be an interesting yet doubtful triumph.
Chances: 2/5

An Education (2009): Nick Hornby
What a delightful film, I guess. The subject material is that kind of smaller scoped, intimate story that tends to capture the Academy's attention, so there's always a chance. Screenplay seems to be a lesser award (if you haven't gotten my theories on Awards by now), one that either contributes to a ridiculous awards sweep (like The Return of the King [2003]) or one that highlights an otherwise marginally winning film (see, Milk [2008]). This kind of win, based on the fact that AVABAR's writing fucking sucked could contribute really to any of the nominees in this category.
Chances: 3/5

District 9 (2009): Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell
I've heard a lot of good hype on this one's winning actually. It's just enough of that mixture of quality Sci-Fi, non-overwhelming Political and Social message, small obscured story and production and great box office success. It's already put Blomkamp on everyone's radar, this win more than any other (no way it gets Visual Effects, sorry. It should have any other year in the history of mankind, but there's no way.against AVABAR) would secure that.
Chances: 4/5

Up in the Air (2009/I): Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

Reitman's already directed one Best Screenplay winner (Juno [2007]), and there's no reason he can't go 2-for-2. While its early great hype may be on the downslide, the intricacies of the plot and nuanced, flexed characters should elevate this screenplay above some of the others. Its easy relatibility and contemporarity may also help its chances while at the same time limiting its timelessness. It's possible it wins and then is forgotten, which wouldn't be the first time.

Chances: 5/5

Final Thoughts:

This will be a good ceremony. Oscar is shaking it up, dual hosts, 10 Best Picture noms and lots of crazy shit happening all the time. There's a few things I'm liking however. The first is the amount of mainstream films nominated for major awards, including things like Ass-Blood Prince (2009) getting a nom for cinematography and AVABAR for everything. This also gives credit to a lot of smaller films like Basterds, D-9 and The Locker having great summers (at least with word of mouth). To go with this trend, it's also cool that some summer films could maintain some momentum into the fall and winter. It's possible that timing has become less important (the last August release to win Best Picture was Saving Ryan's Privates [1998]). These two trends tend to buck some other recent Oscar trends that have built upon tiny-ass mid-fall releases and heavy studio pandering. Pumped to see more legit mainstream films do both commercial, critical and hopefully award success. I am disappointed by the lack of Moon (2009), which did really well at the BAFTAs (Well, it got one significant award), but not as disappointed as the lack of Gran Torino (2008) last year.

Well, here we go! Yee haw!

Oscar Zone III: A Closer Look at the Best Director Nominees

On now to Part III of our scrappy, haphazard Oscar coverage, the Directors. Considering how often non-white men are nominated for this category, this should be a big year, especially when also considering the possible favourites. Let's dive in:

Lee Daniels for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

The amount of awards this terribly titled film is up for should be sinking in by now. Lee, the second black dude ever nominated by the Academy is a pretty far long shot to win, but there is a possibility that if Precious is closed out of everything else he sneaks in. Although it won't be closed out of Supporting Actress for sure. So, chances are unlikely.

Chances of Winning: 1/5

Jason Reitman for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Reitman's got some history with his Juno (2007) nomination, and clearly has enough talent to be among Jim and Q here (if not more). He's not really established enough with the Academy to make a true splash, and his competition is a bit too daunting this year to make a good run. This will really be a battle between the next three powerhouses.

Chances: 2/5

Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Q hasn't been acknowledged by the Academy for some time now, by Basterds is in every way his best film since Pulp Fiction (1994) and he's enough of an icon by now to win the close calls instead of losing them. I think it's going to be easier to give the film Supporting Actor for Chris Waltz and maybe screenplay instead of Director here. All three of these projects have been very long gestating ideas with an incredible amount of work poured into them. Of the three however, the next two should prove more significant. Read on:

Chances: 3/5

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker (2008)

It's incredible to me that a woman directed this movie. Not to say that women can't direct or anything, it's just that in particualr this is such a guy's movie. It's about three testosterone-loaded soldiers fighting and bonding in Iraq. And it's done really well! If that's not enough for Kathryn to win, the fact that she pulled off this excellent film in some of the harshest filming conditions in modern memory should give tremendous credit to her cause. At the end of the day, though, I don't believe she can beat Jim, which will be the greatest robbed director in the history of the world (Maybe not. What is it with the Academy loving Native American stories? Is it all Brando or what?).

Chances: 4/5

James Cameron for AVABAR (2009)

He'll win, we'll all cry, end of story. AVABAR is pretty significant as essentially becoming the highest-ever grossing film in all the universe really solely on impressive visuals, continuous word of mouth, and the director. Jim sold this film. For this reason alone his achievement will be recognized by the Academy, along with his arduous task of creating such a blockbuster from scratch, creating new technology to fit his personal vision like no other director before him. That's right. His name fueled one of the greatest movie successes ever in an age where prior franchise knowledge is moreoften taken for granted. It really actually IS impressive, but c'mon. The film was fucking garbage.

Chances: 5/5

Oscar Zone II: A Closer Look at the Best Actor and Actress Nominees

Today in Part II of Norwegian Morning Wood's spotty Oscar coverage, we're looking at the top two acting awards, Best Actor and Actress. At first glance both appear locked up, but there's always surprises in store come Sunday. Maybe. Anyway, let's get into it:

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)
 Basically playing a character from Mad Men set in a British University. Nothing too special, then again for some reason everyone loves Mad Men, so who knows what will happen. I know, that's who.
Chances of Winning: 1/5

Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)
Historical figures are pretty well-received by the Academy, and well-played ones are even more well-received. This isn't Morg's year, though, maybe if this film had come out in 2004 (when Eastwood was THE directorial dick to suck) or 2005 (when Phil won for Capotes) he'd have a chance. Not this year, though, especially because he already has a statue. More on that later.
Chances: 2/5

George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Clooney's gotten the most nominations and awards for this role that he's had since Mike Clayton (2007), and since he was ignored then, he may get a redemption here with a much more positive character. He did get an award for Syriana (2005) recently (apparently he only makes good films in odd-numbered years) which may hurt or help his chances. Based on my Morgan logic, he's boned. Up in the Air is his best performance in a while though, arguably better than Clayton, so I'm giving him more cred than the grizzled black guy.
Chances: 3/5

Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2008)
As you can tell by now, the Academy Awards really aren't about performances at all. It's about poltics, when films come out and how they're distributed, interesting stories about actors or situations during filming, and finally, most importantly, lobbying by studios and producers showing the film to the right people. All that said, Jeremy Renner should win this based on performance. His is the most interesting character on this list and he does a better job than anyone else at showcasing a gruff, hard-to-like exterior at the forefront, then being beaten and melting down later. It's awesome. THAT said, because he's the best performer and the Academy IS all politics, he won't win.
Chances: 4/5

Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)

Here's what I was getting at earlier. This will be like John Wayne's win for True Grit (1969). Not really his best performance, but it's more of a reward for a lifetime of underrecognised yet extremely influential roles. I'm not beyond the irony that next year the Coen Bros are remaking True Grit with Jeff in John's role, don't worry, Jeff will get his statue here, despite not being the best among the nominees. That Clooney and Morg already have statues will prevent the Academy from giving them another while Jeff has none. Then again, this role is very like Mick Rooney's Wrestler (2008) last year, and the statue ended up going to Over-honoured Sean Penn for Milk (2008). So who knows, my logic is probably shitty, but I've got a feeling of all the categories (except Best Animated, which by the way, since Up [2009] is also the only animated film to be nominated for Best Picture, doesn't that kind of already imply that it's already the best animated film? Retarded), this one is the greatest lock.
Chances: 5/5



Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)
I've never fucking heard of this movie, nor do I know anything about it. Instead of researching and making a good judgment, I'm using that basis as proof it has no chance. You need some kind of sizable buzz to make a run at things, and I'm content saying my awareness is in that buzz radius. Fucked.
Chances: 1/5

Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)

In this post I gave her the "should win," although that's probably wrong. She does a bang-up job but in the end is only average compared to the powerhouse top three following her.
Chances: 2/5

Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
This is where it starts getting tough. Despite the completely impronounceable name and awful, awful title, Gab's performance is very strong in a field that usually awards skinny white women. Thus while she'd for sure be an upset to beat Streep and Sandy, her win would be pretty monumental. Since Mo'nique's got Supporting Actress about locked up (hehe, probably more than Jeff has Actor), it might be a stretch to give the film with the worst title of the year both Female Acting awards. Then again, who knows.
Chances: 3/5

Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)
This is basically the obligatory Streep nomination that comes around just about every year. It's practically taken for granted that she's going to be the best, iconic role in any shitty movie she does. Voters may be jaded to her presence by now, but on the other hand, her history with the Academy is ridiculously strong and despite her nominations, she hasn't actually won all that many (she's batting around .125) Is Julia Childs the one to help her slugging percentage? Fuck no.
Chances: 4/5

Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)

Before I get into this, I need to admit how ridiculous this win will be. Sandy sucks, really, I haven't liked her in a film since The Bus that Couldn't Slow Down (1994). She was so sweet then! After that, clearly declining hotness, uninteresting roles (including this one) and not much else going on. Until 2009 suddenly became her biggest year ever. Completely off the radar for young, straight men, Sandy has so much momentum coming of one of her lifetime biggest years in every way, there's no way she doesn't walk home with Oscar. The Blind Side has emotionally manipulated enough people (almost as much as AVABAR) to get the votes and this contest should be over.
Chances: 5/5

Oscar Noms and Predictions

Well, the 82nd Academy Awards Nominees were announced yesterday, and among the usual lot there are some neat suprises that could make for some intriguing wins (they won't). Thus I bring us now to the fabled MORNING WOOD 2010 OSCAR PREDICTIONS! Hooray!

The following is two-fold: In RED are the nominees that WILL WIN. In BLUE are the noms that SHOULD WIN. PURPLE means the shoulda is actually gonna. Got it? Good.

Best Motion Picture of the Year:

Avatar (2009): James Cameron, Jon Landau
The Blind Side (2009): Nominees to be determined
District 9 (2009): Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham
An Education (2009): Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey
The Hurt Locker (2008): Nominees to be determined
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Lawrence Bender
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness
A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up (2009): Jonas Rivera
Up in the Air (2009/I): Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman

AVABAR will win this, there's no doubt. Jim has enough history with the Academy and no Best Picture can avoid looking at that cash haul, which will be beating Titanic by a wide margin by the time the Ceremony airs.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)
George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)
Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)
Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2008)

Bridges has enough support rolling from the Globes to fuel this one, and he actually deserves it (in fact he deserved it years ago). He's not facing much other steep competition and the other nominees are either older actors that have already been honoured or young ones who just haven't been snubbed yet. Jeff is just the right mix of both to pull this off.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)
Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)
Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)

Sandy has enough going on from somehow having one of the greatest years that no straight man in the 18-49 year old demographic noticed to get this. Like Bridges she has a huge body of work with little honour so there's not a lot of doubt here. Carey Mulligan has the best performance from this list, but it's not strong enough to topple Sandy. The only real fun that can come from this if she also wins a Razzie for All About Steve (2009).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon for Invictus (2009)
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger (2009/I)
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station (2009)
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones (2009)
Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

An easier prediction than Ledger last year.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Penélope Cruz for Nine (2009)
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart (2009)
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

For some reason people love Mo'Nique, but I can't get over her atrociousness in Beerfest (2006), being the only weak link in that class is SUCH a weak link. She does do a good job in the worst-name Best Picture Nominee ever, but I'd give the award to Vera if I could.

Best Achievement in Directing

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker (2008)
James Cameron for Avatar (2009)
Lee Daniels for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Jason Reitman for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Again, there's not a question this goes to Jim, but the better job, especially after reading some production stories is clearly Katie's. I'd also love to see Quentin finally get this, but this isn't his year.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

The Hurt Locker (2008): Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger (2009/I): Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman
A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up (2009): Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy

This will be the Academy's way of apologizing to Quentin for snubbing him at Best Picture and Director. He deserves it though, his distinct brand was somehow still relevant and still beautifully crafted, especially for being only about 60% English.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

District 9 (2009): Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell
An Education (2009): Nick Hornby
In the Loop (2009): Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air (2009/I): Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

I base this somehow on Milk (2008)'s win last year. Somehow the smaller yet bigger vibe and impression from that film still fits this year and Up in the Air is the only one worthy.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Avatar (2009): Mauro Fiore
Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009): Christian Berger
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009): Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker (2008): Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Robert Richardson

Cinematography's tricky, and I DON'T think AVABAR will sweep. Thus I give it to The Hurt Locker, but it probably should be Inglourious. Harry Potter's kind of a curveball in this generally serious, un-Summer Blockbuster category, we'll see how that plays out as well.

Best Achievement in Editing

Avatar (2009): Stephen E. Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron
District 9 (2009): Julian Clarke
The Hurt Locker (2008): Bob Murawski, Chris Innis
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Sally Menke
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Joe Klotz

There was nothing really special about AVABAR's editing, but District 9's was carefully crafted to give the impression of a slow, painfully disturbing transformation. Still, AVABAR will get it.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Avatar (2009): Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): David Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith
Nine (2009): John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Sherlock Holmes (2009): Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Young Victoria (2009): Patrice Vermette, Maggie Gray

No question, but again, these nominees are pretty interesting. All of them, actually.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Bright Star (2009): Janet Patterson
Coco avant Chanel (2009): Catherine Leterrier
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): Monique Prudhomme
Nine (2009): Colleen Atwood
The Young Victoria (2009): Sandy Powell

See what happens when you CGI the whole movie? No costumes. Nine will get this based on its snuffage for just about everything else while Dr. P probably earned it more. Too bad every studio hates Terry Gilliam.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Il divo (2008): Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano
Star Trek (2009): Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow
The Young Victoria (2009): John Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore

This is a Young Victoria-kind of category, but it would be sweet to see Trek pull it off.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Avatar (2009): James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker (2008): Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes (2009): Hans Zimmer
Up (2009): Michael Giacchino

AVABAR's was typical, but it'll win. I like the quirky twans of Mr. Fox much better, though.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Crazy Heart (2009): T-Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham("The Weary Kind")
Faubourg 36 (2008): Reinhardt Wagner, Frank Thomas("Loin de Paname")
Nine (2009): Maury Yeston("Take It All")
The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Down in New Orleans")
The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Almost There")

Crazy Heart will upset Nine and it should.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Avatar (2009): Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson
The Hurt Locker (2008): Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano
Star Trek (2009): Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009): Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson

Transformers should legitimately get this award. ESPECIALLY after it got jerked around by The Bourne Ultimatum (2007) last time. C'mon, the sounds are sweet in that movie.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Avatar (2009): Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
The Hurt Locker (2008): Paul N.J. Ottosson
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Wylie Stateman
Star Trek (2009): Mark P. Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin
Up (2009): Michael Silvers, Tom Myers

This is true.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Avatar (2009): Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andy Jones
District 9 (2009): Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken
Star Trek (2009): Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton

In any other year this would have been District 9's game, but not this year. AVABAR gets this legit.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Coraline (2009): Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog (2009): John Musker, Ron Clements
The Secret of Kells (2009): Tomm Moore
Up (2009): Pete Docter

I like seeing a film like Coraline in there, but c'mon. Pixar is Pixar.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Ajami (2009)(Israel)
Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009)(Germany)
El secreto de sus ojos (2009)(Argentina)
Un prophète (2009)(France)
La teta asustada (2009)(Peru)

pfft.

Best Documentary, Features

Burma VJ: Reporter i et lukket land (2008): Anders Østergaard, Lise Lense-Møller
The Cove (2009): Nominees to be determined
Food, Inc. (2008): Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers (2009): Judith Ehrlich, Rick Goldsmith
Which Way Home (2009): Rebecca Cammisa

The only one I've heard of - thus is a good indication that it has enough word of mouth to win. This is also true.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province (2009) (TV): Jon Alpert, Matthew O'Neill
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner (2009): Daniel Junge, Henry Ansbacher
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (2009) (TV): Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
Królik po berlinsku (2009): Bartosz Konopka, Anna Wydra
Music by Prudence (2010): Roger Ross Williams, Elinor Burkett

Academy loves this kind of shit.

Best Short Film, Animated

French Roast (2008): Fabrice Joubert
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (2008): Nicky Phelan, Darragh O'Connell
La dama y la muerte (2009): Javier Recio Gracia
Logorama (2009): Nicolas Schmerkin
Wallace and Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death' (2008) (TV): Nick Park

They have enough history with the Academy, and frankly I know nothing about any other nominees to make a more educated prediction.

Best Short Film, Live Action

The Door (2008): Juanita Wilson, James Flynn
Istället för abrakadabra (2008): Patrik Eklund, Mathias Fjällström
Kavi (2009): Gregg Helvey
Miracle Fish (2009): Luke Doolan, Drew Bailey
The New Tenants (2009): Joachim Back, Tivi Magnusson

I like the Doors but Miracle Fish has a cooler name. Go figure.

Award are presented March 7th. Stay tuned for additional coverage!