Top 10 Films 3.0: 2012-2014

As we did yesterday with years 2009-2011, it's about that time where we re-evaluate our Top Ten film rankings of yesteryear. Attitudes change and some movies hold up better or worse than others over the years. While this is certainly a pointless exercise with no real end year after year, it's definitely a nice way to be reminded of how many good flicks there are out there and an encouragement to see as many as possible. I would postulate that as my tastes have evolved, these latter years won't change that much - based both on their recency matching my current profile and the original lists being more solid and less random and pandering than when I first started this site.

Again, for our first realignment back in 2014, which also holds our first lists, click here!

2012:

The Campaign
The Grey
The Five-Year Engagement
Celeste and Jesse Forever
Life of Pi 
Skyfall
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
The Master

When we last met I was but the student

There's only three films that I have retained through the years, four since 2014 which is actually incredible. The Grey has maintained a low spot on the list while Django and The Master have unwaveringly held the top two positions. Other than that I've moved away from the slew of great action films in 2012 like Dredd and Looper in favour of the great comedies like The Five-Year Engagement and Celeste and Jesse Forever. I never thought much of Life of Pi, but it's grown on me, and in terms of big spectacle films I traded The Dark Knight Rises for Skyfall. 2012 is an all-around pretty solid year that I can see switching around quite a bit, while I don't think much can touch those top two giants. Other films like Moonrise Kingdom, Seven Psychopaths, and even Pitch Perfect were tough to leave off, but they're ultimately all too gimmicky. Then again, The Campaign gets the #10 spot as a film that's held up remarkably well as its outrageousness is eclipsed by actual contemporary political campaigns.

2013:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
Frozen
Prisoners
12 Years a Slave
The World's End
Pain & Gain
Spring Breakers

Inside Llewyn Davis

The Wolf of Wall Street
Stoker

omg shoes

I really love a list that includes Cloud with a Chance of Meatballs 2 and Prisoners so close to each other. You may have noticed how much I've loved the Phil Lord and Chris Miller films, but I'd argue that the sequel is actually the superior film in many ways. Now, to be sure, my original 2013 list was a total cop-out that just allowed me to list all the films I liked. That's all kind of bullshit. Of the 19 films listed, six remain here. In 2014 I re-ranked and as predicted, the lists are pretty similar, with seven films still cropping up here. The major difference is Stoker, which I just watched and loved, earning it the #1 spot. In future installments I'd be curious if that film's position is tenuous. Other than that this list is crazily similar. Frozen moves from #8 to #9, 12 Years a Slave moves from #6 to #7, and the Top Five largely remain identical besides the downvote of The World's End and the inclusion of Stoker. To be sure, when making the 2017 list I didn't even glance at previous rankings; I literally re-ranked from scratch, which means 2013 is remarkably stable, at least as far as my tastes are concerned. I would like The Lone Ranger to make it someday.

2014:

Interstellar
The LEGO Movie
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Snowpiercer
The Interview
Birdman
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice

Under the Skin

Scottish Men only use 10% of their dicks

Some years are weird with titles, like how 2012 has "The" in front of a lot of films. 2014 is all about "In" - Interstellar, Interveiw, Inherent Vice...2014 retains seven from the original list, but in drastically different order, with Under the Skin moving way up and Interstellar moving way down. Birdman I unanimously named my favourite at the time, although it's #4 in 2017. What's more weird is that in 2015 I re-ranked and only five remain from that one just a little over a year ago. Those are basically the Top Four, although I had difficulty leaving John Wick and Dear White People off the list - the former because it's a well-constructed action film that isn't that great of a film, and the latter for just being something that didn't stick with me as much as it did in 2015. Instead, Foxcatcher and Snowpiercer sneak in, both of which I still actively talk and think about.

These ranks ought to be considered Norwegian Morning Wood canon for at least the next three years. I'd be curious to see how anything changes between now and 2020 or if we've somewhat stabilized. We of course JUST ranked 2016 and re-ranked 2015 here, so you may check that out as well. As for the future, we can only guess as to which films rise to prominence, which seem to flash hot then fade, and which barely miss the cut in favour of Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2.

2015 Oscar Predictions 100% Right

Wait, I went 20/24 last year? What the fuck?! How am I supposed to compete with that? That's really a tall order but I'll give these predictions my best shot. Holy crap. To be honest, I don't know why I even care about the Oscars. This entire blog is predicated on the notion that you can't really grade films against each other and that all art has the ability to stand on its own and be judged through a mix of cultural impact, personal preferences based on lived experiences, and technical merit. The Oscars kind of flies in the face of all that because it suggests to many people that these are good movies they would enjoy seeing, but that's not really true. It's more just what a consensus of a bunch of industry professionals think are the best of the year.

And "best" is rather lightly used - it's more about stumping, timing, and likability in a culture that seeks to destroy rather than maintain personal relationships. So why cover this garbage at all? It gets clicks. And it IS interesting, if only to examine how films, filmmakers, and studios position themselves against each other. It is also one of the major reasons why studios bother making good films at all instead of just shoving all of their cheddar into a handful of mindless tentpole releases each year. There's a reason why this is Hollywood's biggest night, and it's something adult, cultured, and refined in an industry that otherwise caters to 14-year old nerds.

Right now I'll just run through things quick, and my predictions will probably change over the next couple weeks, especially as this falls out. Seriously, there are a ton of surprises and snubs here. The LEGO Movie (2014) was going to be my default Animated Picture pick, what the fuck do I do now?! I'll get deeper into the categories that actually matter over the next few weeks. For now, here's my gut:

Best Picture

American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Predicted Winner: Boyhood

I didn't really like Boyhood at all, although it's still an impressive cinematic achievement that I'm surprised hasn't been done in a similar fashion before. I actually only rated two of these in my personal Top Ten for the year, but those two films - Grand Budapest and Birdman actually have the strongest chance of actually upsetting Boyhood. While Birdman seemed like a virtual lock a few months ago, Wes Anderson's latest may actually be tending towards the one that actually nabs him the big prize. Linklater is also deserving in the sense that he's had a great career that the Academy hasn't really recognized yet.

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Predicted Winner: Linklater

I could have saved that Linklater talk for this category as well. Iñárritu is the obvious upset with Anderson a close third. The production coordination of both Boyhood and Birdman is astounding achievement, but Linklater made by far the picture that the Academy is typically more comfortable with. He pulls off the twelve-year gimmick well, delivering a family drama with just enough of a curve to be notable while Birdman lambastes most of the current Hollywood business model. There will still be folk who dig the industry story, especially the actor's section, though that won't help it here.

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore

This is kind of a weird one that Julianne is sort of running away with now. Jones is the highest profile movie here in terms of Award Nominations, but the competition here is intense. Reese and Cotillard are former winners and Pike turned in the best performance of anyone this year. Moore though, is a five-time nominee who has never won, which is ridiculous to think about. No one at all has seen Still Alice, which could hurt its chances, but as it trends now, this seems like a no brainer reward for an excellent career.

Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton

There were a crazy amount of great acting performances this year, and Redmayne is sort of a weird rival to Keaton suddenly, especially because of how popular The Theory of Everything seems to be with the Academy. It is a pretty safe biopic of an interesting handicapped modern historical figure. That's Oscar gold, baby! But Keaton very much deserves this and like so many others, this is a lifetime achievement award for creating a crazy amount of iconic characters and Birdman is in innumerable ways a film made for him and he just destroys it.

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette

Remember all that stuff I've been saying about how these awards are all basically going to be career achievement awards? That'll keep going on. The same could be said for Laura Dern here, but Wild doesn't have the profile of Boyhood right now. The younger nominees are interesting and in years past this may have been Emma's to lose, but this is all Patricia. Now, if only David Arquette can be awarded...

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Predicted Winner: Just Kidding Simmons

Copy and paste all that other text I wrote about the other acting nominations. JK Simmons is the favorite character actor of everyone in the world, and this category is tailor-made for performances like his in Whiplash. It's loud, showy, and most of all, a perfect conduit for his schtick. This award notoriously goes to people playing notorious characters, and this will fit right in line with where it has gone in the past.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Predicted Winner: Whiplash

This is my bold prediction. Reading more about how P.T. Anderson adapted Inherent Vice, I'm actually impressed with it, but it really doesn't have any momentum. The other three movies are totally safe choices that no one would blink an eye about. Whiplash, though, is a chance to award a young writer-director who turned in an extremely talented and unique screenplay. That's totally like past winners such as Argo (2012), The Descendents (2011), and Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire (2009).

Best Original Screenplay

Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye, Foxcatcher
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Predicted Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Academy has sort of finally realized that they've never awarded Wes Anderson anything, and even though this isn't his year to gain Best Picture, he'll be happy walking away with Best Original Screenplay. It's got the most buzz out of any of these flicks, although if Boyhood or Birdman feels like sweeping, one of them will take this. Grand Budapest is actually riding pretty high right now, though, and there are other locks for those films to take. Oscar ceremonies have been more split lately than dominated by one or two films, and there's so many great, widely beloved films this year, Anderson takes him his first trophy.

Best Foreign Language Film

Leviathan
Ida
Tangerines
Timbuktu
Wild Tales

Predicted Winner: Ida

I really couldn't believe that Force Majeure wasn't nominated, but Ida is the next best thing we've got (No Babadook, either!). Ida is actually the safer pick than Leviathan, which won the Best Foreign pic award at the Golden Globes. It's tempting to go with that pick, but with a surprising nomination in Cinematography as well, it's clear that Ida gained ground among more than just the typical voters. It's also a way more normal movie that the Academy likes rather than Leviathan.

Best Documentary Feature

CITIZENFOUR
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt in the Earth
Virunga

Predicted Winner: CITIZENFOUR

CITIZENFOUR is assuredly the most high profile doc on this list, but in the past that hasn't always been a guarantee for success. It does more for the genre than any other film here, though, as it's really about making the story along with documenting it. That could be derided by some purists. It's a hugely relevant tale, though, and most people have at least a vague familiarity with the Eddie Snowden story. The Academy could chicken out and not award it for its controversy, but Hollywood is nice and liberal, right?

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of The Princess Kaguya

Predicted Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Give the Academy some credit for throwing an absolute monkey wrench into what is typically one of the larger no brainer, automatic categories of the Ceremony. The LEGO Movie losing out on the Globe was one thing, but to not even receive a nomination here is crazy. Any one of these becomes a deserving and very possible winner, but How to Train Your Dragon 2 ought to follow in the vein of Happy Feet - a not that great animated film that made a lot of money and appealed to a lot of people. There are some flaws with that logic, but it's easily the film that unsure voters will default to.

Film Editing

American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Predicted Winner: Boyhood

Everything else is crap, but this will come down to Grand Budapest and Boyhood. The sharp, competent editing style that demonstrates a wit to match the film favors Budapest, but the majestic technical feat of splicing together twelve years of footage (okay - twelve weeks shot over twelve years) and keeping that straight in the editor's head is damned impressive. Again, gimmicky, but impressive.

Best Song

"Everything is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie (written by Shawn Patterson)
"Glory" from Selma (written by Common and John Legend)
"Grateful" from Beyond the Lights
"I’m Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Lost Stars" from Begin Again (written by Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley and Nick Southwood)

Predicted Winner: "Glory"

"Everything is Awesome" may  have seemed like a lock, and it would be awesome to say Academy Award Winner Andy Samberg (he would get in on that, right?), but it's more and more apparent that no one in the Academy gives a shit about The LEGO Movie, even with a song that's was indelibly tied into its film. "Glory" makes the bridge from Selma to today, though, and we'll have to settle on Academy Award Winner Common. It's the only controversial speech the Oscars are going to get, but hopefully they'll go for it, and we'll get someone to give White America a good Richard Sherman-like scare.

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything
Gary Yershon, Mr. Turner
Hans Zimmer, Interstellar

Predicted Winner: Johann Johannsson

I just picked the best name, and it turns out he's favored! Hooray! I can't really pick out any of these scores and we're not going to be jamming to The Theory of Everything ten years from now, but with no Antonio Sanchez Birdman or Mica Levi Under the Skin noms, it's the best we've got.

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins, Unbroken
Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Robert Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski, Ida

Predicted Winner: Lubezki

There shouldn't really be a question here. Lubezki won last year for Gravity (2013), and normally I'd rather have the wealth spread out a bit more, but he's just so damn deserving. He's become the master of the single-take tracking shot and Birdman obviously goes nuts with this idea. Like the editing for Boyhood, from a technical planning standpoint alone this is an incredible feat. This should be a no brainer.

Best Costume Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Predicted Winner: Into the Woods

Grand Budapest is the obvious pick but obvious picks never win this category. In the face of huge prestige competition films like Marie Antoinette (2006), The Duchess (2008), The Young Victoria (2009), Anna Karenina (2012), and The Great Gatsby (2013) have pulled off wins. Grand Budapest fits into this model pretty well, being a period piece and all, and heavily favored films like The Artist (2011) have won this in sweeps, but I can just imagine sitting there and hating watching Into the Woods win this thing.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

All three of these are totally worthy and the fact that I care about this race is amazing. Foxcatcher's prosthetics on Steve Carrell are certainly notable, but that's really a small bit of the film. Guardians really did have some of the best Makeup effects in recent memory, but I struggle to see it winning over Grand Budapest - it's just that kind of plausible Best Picture nominee that makes it a good outlet for voters to choose to sweep things like this.

Best Production Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Predicted Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

See what I'm talking about? Grand Budapest just seems like the obvious default for all these kinds of awards. Interstellar could also be really deserving, but the Academy is more into giving love when it can to solidly loved pics like Wes Anderson's gorgeous baby here.

Best Sound Editing

American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Predicted Winner: Interstellar

These are all pretty deserving, maybe the coordination of gritty squeals and grunts in Birdman more than some others, but the deafening glory of Interstellar that extorts itself even over its dialogue and score ought to give it some ground here.

Best Sound Mixing

American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash

Predicted Winner: Interstellar

Here are five films that are very dependent on sound to establish their message, either through music, war, or space travel. Interstellar is the most high profile and probably the best here as well. It's a good candidate to lavish these kinds of awards on, as Gravity snatched up last year.

Best Visual Effects

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Winner: Interstellar

I don't think it's really a contest. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes does deserve some recognition for the huge leap forward in realistic furry apes, even from Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011), but Interstellar helped us understand how black holes work. Seriously, the effects pioneered in the film to explore more accurate black hole depictions gave us a better understanding of our universe. You've got to award that. I don't even remember anything great from any other blockbuster this year.

Best Short Film, Live Action

"Aya"
"Boogaloo and Graham"
"Butter Lamp"
"Parvaneh"
"The Phone Call"

Predicted Winner: "The Phone Call"

Welcome to the game that we call, "The Dartboard." Gold Derby says "The Phone Call." So I'm going with that. I may do some more research on this crap later, but chances are, I will just do anything else with my life instead. Listen, the shorts are all actually pretty interesting, and it'd be cool if there was some kind of mainstream distribution outlet for them, even though you can snag most on YouTube or something, but they're so hard to get around to seeing. Hopefully I look smart.

Best Short Film, Animated

"The Bigger Picture"
"The Dam Keeper"
"Feast"
"Me and My Moulton"
"A Single Life"

Predicted Winner: "Feast"

Wheeee!!! I have no pretension of backing this up with accurate judgment.

Best Documentary, Short Subject

"Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"
"Joanna"
"Our Curse"
"The Reaper"
"White Earth"

Predicted Winner: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"

Boop boop. Most interesting title.

Okay, folks - those are all my predictions for the 2015 Academy Awards. Some are gutsy, some are obvious, and some are complete shots in the dark, but we'll see how awesome I am on February 22nd! In between now and then I'll be taking some time as usual to go over the more important categories that everyone cares about (like Live Action Short!) before live blogging my stupid reactions to the night itself. Stay tuned, America!

2014 Oscar Nominations and Predictions - Let the Crapshoot Begin!

After sitting on the Academy Award Nominations for a week I think I'm really on to something here. No, it will be a crapshoot as always. My best year predicting winners was 2012, where I scored 16/24. Last year I got 14 correct. But this year! This year, my friends, I am going to bat 1.000. I swear.

The Oscars are kind of pointless, though, you know? The best film of the year doesn't win - the film that best positions itself in the hearts and minds of voters wins. And honestly, how many of you are out there re-watching, quoting or even still thinking about The King's Speech (2010), The Artist (2011), or even Argo (2012)? Oscars don't prove quality, longevity, or cultural significance. Then why bother with this at all? Because of huge heapings of arbitrary self-importance, that's why - and for the slim chance that future DVD releases Bad Grandpa can label it as an Oscar-winning film. Let's begin.

Best picture
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Captain Phillips
Her
American Hustle
Gravity
Dallas Buyers Club
Nebraska
Philomena

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

This is ending up being a pretty heated race between Slave, Hustle, and Gravity. I may be more inclined to suggest Hustle as the forerunner right now based on its impressive runs at he SAG. Then again, you've got Slave tying Gravity at the PGAs. It's a mess. I'm inclined that the large acting section of the Academy leans towards 12 Years a Slave more than Cuaron's film. It's also had the most buzz since September. Still, this is wide open.

Best director
Steve McQueen: 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell: American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron: Gravity
Alexander Payne: Nebraska
Martin Scorsese: The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

We'll have a better idea of this after the DGAs this weekend. I am predicting a split between Best Picture and Director, with Cuaron nailing this for the complex filmmaking experience of Gravity, as well as a bit of a consolation prize for losing Best Picture. This could easily be completely reversed.

Best actor
Bruce Dern: Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor: 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey: Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo DiCaprio: The Wolf of Wall Street
Christian Bale: American Hustle

Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey

We're truly in an age of McConaughey. Not only is the dude playing exactly the kind of role the Academy digs (historical biopic tangling a tough issue that also involved a ton of weight loss), he pulled it out of his own recently resurgent persona. Despite some damn good competition, he's also been rolling in the awards like the good ol' boy he is. Let the McConaissance reign.

Best actress
Amy Adams: American Hustle
Cate Blanchett: Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench: Philomena
Sandra Bullock: Gravity
Meryl Streep: August: Osage County

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchette

This may be the oldest batch of Best Actress nominees in years, and so it comes with some tremendous pedigree. Everyone here except for Amy already owns a gold statue, although Cate and Judi don't have a Best Actress one. This is looking more and more like Cate's race to lose, though it's really one of the movies with a lower profile on this list.

Best supporting actor
Barkhad Abdi: Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper: American Hustle
Jonah Hill: The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto: Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender: 12 Years a Slave

Predicted Winner: Jared Leto

After an awkward Golden Globes acceptance speech, Leto has righted his ship a bit after the SAGs. There isn't a ton of suspense here, although Fassbender deserves to sneak in for the upset. I still think Jonah Hill deserves this one for going absolutely crazy, and his analogous character in Goodfellas (1990) did earn Joe Pesci a statue. I think this still has a bit of wiggle room, but for now Leto is the safe bet.

Best supporting actress
Jennifer Lawrence: American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o: 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb: Nebraska
Julia Roberts: August: Osage County
Sally Hawkins: Blue Jasmine

Predicted Winner: Lupita Nyong'o

This is really coming down to Nyong'o vs. J-Law, and they couldn't be happier. Seriously. Nyong'o gave the sort of breathless performance that is really deserving of this, and it's tough to argue that Lawrence did a better job here than in Silver Linings Playbook (2012), which you have to compare her to. Then again, Christoph Waltz basically turned in two identical characters (albeit on different sides of good and evil) that earned him two statues, so you know the Academy likes cozying up to people it likes. This goes back and forth a bit, but right now it's Nyong'o's to lose.

Best original screenplay
American Hustle: David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer
Blue Jasmine: Woody Allen
Her: Spike Jonze
Nebraska: Bob Nelson
Dallas Buyers Club: Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

Predicted Winner: American Hustle

I think that this will serve as a nice consolation for Hustle after it loses Best Picture and Best Director, although despite its recent gains, it's headed in the opposite direction of positive attention online lately as it something like Her, which both nabbed this award at the Golden Globes and just had this nifty documentary put out by Lance Bangs. I think that Her is a much more interesting film, one that will stand the test of time better, and even one that is better written, but like I said, none of that matters.

Best adapted screenplay
12 Years a Slave: John Ridley
Before Midnight: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater
The Wolf of Wall Street: Terence Winter
Captain Phillips: Billy Ray
Philomena: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

This isn't that difficult to figure out. Although Wolf is probably the steepest competition, the praise (or hate) of this film hasn't really been in the writing. Slave is slow and meditating, but the dialogue is punctured and real, which is impressive considering it takes place 170 years ago.

Best animated feature
The Wind Rises
Frozen
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
The Croods

Predicted Winner: Frozen

If the Academy leans towards Miyazaki, who has never really been acknowledged by the organization, I can see The Wind Rises grabbing this. Frozen, however, is just far to easy to nominate and adore for it to go home in this category empty-handed. Notably absent is Pixar's effort for 2013, Monsters University, which perhaps signifies that their dominance in this category is truly over.

Best foreign feature
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
Omar (Palestinian territories)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Predicted Winner: The Great Beauty

The Great Beauty is getting more praise and buzz than anyone else in this group, and after it won over Blue is the Warmest Color (2013) at the Golden Globes it's almost a sure thing here. Of course, I know nothing about the rest of these nominees to even guess a possible upset, but shouldn't that suggest that The Great Beauty is destined for more greatness?

Best documentary feature
The Act of Killing
20 Feet From Stardom
The Square
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars

Predicted Winner: An Act of Killing

I was also surprised that Blackfish (2013) was snubbed here after it actually made some waves (oh ho!) in people's actual lives and attitudes like few movies, let alone documentaries actually do on a wide level. Maybe after The Cove (2009) the Academy thought it had already honoured enough documentary subjects concerning people endangering aquatic mammals. I say, it's never enough. An Act of Killing has the second most buzz of any doc this year. Let's go with that.

Best production design
12 Years a Slave: Adam Stockhausen and Alice Baker
The Great Gatsby: Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn
American Hustle: Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler
Gravity: Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard
Her: K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena

Predicted Winner: The Great Gatsby

Many are predicting Gatsby here, which is shaping up to be that weird kind of shitty movie that racks up bizarre quasi-technical awards like this and costuming. If Gravity or Slave start rolling, though, this is an easy pick-up on the way to a sweep.

Best cinematography
Gravity: Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis: Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska: Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners: Roger Deakins
The Grandmaster: Phillippe Le Sourd

Predicted Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki

I would have immediately thought this one would go to Sean Bobbit for 12 Years a Slave for the gorgeous way that picture looked, but he's no where to be found. There's a nice nod to Roger Deakins here, who hasn't won an Academy Award in 11 nominations, including his favored work last year for Skyfall (2012). Lubezki, though, isn't really a slouch either, with five nominations and no wins. If the Academy really feels like they slighted Deakins last year he may walk away with this, but if you play the odds, he's got to lose, right?

Best costume design
The Great Gatsby: Catherine Martin
12 Years a Slave: Patricia Norris
The Grandmaster: William Chang Suk Ping
American Hustle: Michael Wilkinson
The Invisible Woman: Michael O'Connor

Predicted Winner: American Hustle

This is another one of those categories that Gatsby may walk away with, especially because it's looking to turn into one of those doofy Anna Karenina (2012) - kind of flicks that dominates these categories. It's just good enough to be popular and respected, but not really of the cut for Best Picture. Even with all that, though I'm going out and suggesting that Hustle pulls a mild upset here and gets some recognition for the all-around insanity that was their hair, make-up, and outfits. No hair and makeup nods, so here you go.

Best film editing
Gravity: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger
12 Years a Slave: Joe Walker
Captain Phillips: Christopher Rouse
American Hustle: Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
Dallas Buyers Club: John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

Predicted Winner: Gravity

I don;t think there is much competition here - Gravity could win really from its lack of editing, as Cuaron likes to do. He could be one of those rare individuals to go home with two separate statues on the same night, which seems likely. Really, Cuaron has been making crazy good films for years, mostly thanks to his editing style, and this should serve as a nice acknowledgement for that.

Best makeup and hairstyling
The Lone Ranger: Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa: Stephen Prouty
Dallas Buyers Club: Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Predicted Winner: Dallas Buyers Club

So, yeah, Bad Grandpa needs to win this and Johnny Knoxville needs to collect the award as Irving Zissman. The much safer bet is the more prestigious Dallas Buyers Club, though, with the other films being a bit lowly for the Academy to acknowledge in its stead. Still, I have said for years how surprisingly good the Jackass old people make-up is and how much studios can learn from them. Will that be credited? This is the biggest award of the night.

Best music (original score)
Gravity: Steven Price
Philomena: Alexandre Desplat
The Book Thief: John Williams
Saving Mr. Banks: Thomas Newman
Her: William Butler and Owen Pallett

Predicted Winner: Gravity

There's no obvious great score from this list, but Gravity is certainly the film with the highest profile. It's tough to picture Her leaving with nothing, though, and if Hustle succeeds in snatching its Original Screenplay award, I can see it pulling a little upset here. How many points do I get for conditional picks?

Best music (original song)
Frozen: "Let it Go" by Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom: "Ordinary Love" by U2, Paul Hewson
Her: "The Moon Song" by Karen O, Spike Jonze
Despicable Me 2: "Happy" by Pharrell Williams
Alone Yet Not Alone: "Alone Yet Not Alone" by Bruce Broughton, Dennis Spiegel

Predicted Winner: "Let it Go"

C'mon "Let it Go"....Bono doesn't need another award. "Let it Go" is actually the perfect Oscar song - it's important in the context of the film, stands as an integral character and plot moment, and is actually fun to listen on its own weeks after the film hit theaters. It was also on the number one album in the country for a bit there - upstaging Beyonce deserves an Oscar, folks. I am scared to death that this goes to Bono, basically because he's the New York Yankees of Awards Winning. And such a piece of shit.

Best sound editing
Gravity
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Lone Survivor
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Winner: Gravity

So we're approaching "default to Gravity" mode with these technical categories. The arrangment of sound is pretty spectacular in the space epic and this is definitely in the vein of other winners that were pretty epic in scope like Skyfall, Inception (2010), and The Dark Knight (2008). Thank goodness the Academy finally got a big accessible sort of sci-fi movie that wasn't really trying to be a blockbuster to through all these kinds of awards at this year.

Best sound mixing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Lone Survivor
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Winner: Gravity

There is some possibility that Inside Llewyn Davis saves face here after not getting any other nomination(Not even for "Please Mr, Kennedy"), but if no one liked it enough to be nominated, no one's going to like it enough for it to win anything. Winners for Mixing don't always match up with winners for Editing, but they usually do for the big blockbuster-y type films and Gravity ought to clean this out, too. And to think, The Desolation of Smaug may have actually stood a chance.

Best visual effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Star Trek Into Darkness
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Speaking of Smaug, that's about Gravity's only competition here. The effects for everything else aren't even that good - at least Pacific Rim really wowed us. But if Gravity deserves any statue this night, it's for the absolutely mind-blowing special effects that made this a worthwhile film to see in theaters and only in theaters. Let's do it, Hollywood.

Best short film, live action
"Aquel No Era Yo" (That Wasn't Me)
"Avant Que De Tout Perdre" (Just Before Losing Everything)
"Helium"
"Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa?" (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
"The Voorman Problem"

Predicted Winner: "The Voorman Problem"

Time for the super-crapshoots. I like that name, Voorman. Sounds good. Why is there so many foreign entries this year? Go Voorman.

Best short film, animated
"Feral"
"Get a Horse!"
"Mr. Hublot"
"Possessions"
"Room on the Broom"

Predicted Winner: "Get a Horse!"

"Get a Horse!" played before Frozen and was actually a really engaging piece of meta-film that played with and contrasted black and white filmmaking with computer animated 3D work effortlessly, uniquely, and quickly. It was also pretty funny. It's almost too clever for its own good with the amount of creativity the characters display while using the strengths and limitations of their own medium to thwart or help each other. It rules and will win.

Best documentary short
"CaveDigger"
"Facing Fear"
"Karama Has No Walls"
"The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life"
"Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall"

Predicted Winner: "The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life"

Hy-ohhhhh!!!

So there you have it folks. I guarantee this list to be 100% accurate come March 2nd. Actually just about everything can change. If I bat .500 I'm pretty excited. Now let's all drink to our own self-congratulation.

Oscar Zone IV: Best Picture Nominations

Well folks, we're two weeks out of the Big Night - the 2013 Oscar Ceremony. Over the past few weeks, we've thoroughly analyzed the potential candidates to win awards for Acting, Writing, and Directing. Now it's time for the most prestigious award of the night - Best Picture. A lot goes into Best Picture - it is the combined effort of writing, acting, directing, editing, usually a catchy score and good production, but mostly it's whatever film was able to bribe its way through the Hollywood Award Circuit and is most beloved by the stodgy old Academy. You may check back to this post to cover the rest of those minor, crappier categories, like Documentary Short and stuff, as well as to see our original picks for Best Picture. Yeah, we've changed our minds since then. So, now in order from least likely to most likely to win:

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Despite renewed interest in New Orleans and Louisiana with the Super Bowl last week, there is not a lot of attention on this film. That may be because Beasts of the Southern Wild has nothing really to do with New Orleans besides a general setting in a Louisana Bayou against an upcoming storm. Still, it's a miracle this little film got nominated, and an even bigger miracle that a young lady who stole all the craziest letters in the alphabet to make her name was nominated for Best Actress (Quvenzhané Wallis). It's a great achievement for the film but it's going against a slew of powerhouses in the industry, and besides, Hollywood doesn't care about Black People anyway. Just look at the photo of the nominees, it's like a chocolate Where's Waldo game.

Django Unchained

Speaking of Black People, there also isn't a chance that Quentin's Southern Western Germanic Epic Tome wins best picture. For one, it has way too many instances of the N-word. More importantly, though, it's not as groundbreaking of a film from a cinematic standpoint as his two other highest Oscar profile films, Pulp Fiction (1994) and Inglourious Basterds (2009). I'd contend that it is a groundbreaking southern western allusion to the aforementioned Germanic Epic Tome with some of the strongest Black Characters in the past decade along with an unyielding black and white morality and brutal assessment of our own horror-filled history that everyone in this country needs to watch and appreciate. But it won't win many Oscars.

Les Misérables

Chicago (2002) won it all a decade ago, can this musical repeat that feat? It's unlikely. Chicago's win wasn't all that memorable and there's a lot stiffer competition this time around. Anne will have her spot in the sunlight when she brings home the Best Supporting Actress Award, but that will be it for this one. It doesn't have the snappy following that many of its rivals have pulled off this year, and despite its following, hasn't been pushed over a critical or cultural breaking point to secure a spot in our hearts like some other flicks have. In short, it's just not up to snuff. Maybe it can legitimize Hugh Jackman's career for a time. Not like he cares, though.

Amour

This is another smaller movie that was off the radar before its nomination here. Foreign films don't really have a shot at Best Picture, though, and it won't be widely distributed or seen enough to gain traction before the Big Night. It's only shot is in honoring longtime veteran director Michael Haneke and a handful of actors who had their day 50 years ago such as Best Actress Nominee Emmanuelle Riva. But honestly - you want to talk about honoring an old Director and this is in the same category as Steven Spielberg, who actually only has three Oscars to his name, not a Best Director since Saving Private Ryan (1998) and not a Best Picture since Schindler's List (1993)? Any rationale for Haneke is double for Steve, Mike's out of luck.

Life of Pi

Much of the following nominees are thoroughly and distinctively American in nature. Life of Pi (2012) represents the only film with a legitimate shot that also has some international flavor to it. This has been a trend of late, with wins for such films with international connections such as The Artist (2011) (France), The King's Speech (2010) (UK), and Slumdog Millionaire (2008) (UK/India). It could also be seen as recognition of Ang Lee, who is proving himself to be if not the most gifted Director in Hollywood, then certainly the most versatile, who the Academy snubbed of Brokeback Mountain (2005) in favor of Crash (2004). It is also a virtual lock in many of the technical categories, and that block may push it here, although they're a fairly small number within the Academy. Most likely it will end up like last year's Hugo (2011), which won a ton of awards, but nothing really important.

Zero Dark Thirty

There is a good spirit behind this film, and through some strategic interviews, some of the torture controversy has lessened of late. Still, the controversy really is still there, and it's far too bold of a film for the Academy to recognize with so high of an honor. It has a nice following and can be seen very much as a superior follow-up to Katherine Bigelow and Mark Boal's winner of just about everything important in 2009, The Hurt Locker. With such a recent win, though, the Academy could easily justify spreading the love around a bit more, and although this has a popular and loyal following, there are other teams that have long deserved recognition. All in all, the wins for The Hurt Locker may be what most prevents another here, although of course it's not without precedent.

Silver Linings Playbook

This has been nearly the hottest film of all these as of late. The strongest indication that Silver Linings Playbook's upset potential is the Actors Voting Block of the Academy. David O. Russell is developing a crazy good reputation for being and Actor's Director, and with nominations in every acting category, it's clear that this is a loved Actor's film. It's also becoming a strong possibility that De Niro overtakes Tommy Lee Jones for Best Supporting Actor. If that happens (and J-Law also triumphs over J-Chast), David O films will have produced four Acting Statues in the past two years (the others being Melissa Leo and Christian Bale for The Fighter [2010]). Silver Linings' actors have also been selling the hell out of this movie, and it's currently the only Best Picture nominee that has been in the Top Three of the Box Office for the past three weekends. The only real threat to its anointment is the fact that Romantic Comedies just don't win in this category. The Weinsteins, therefore, have begun trying not to sell it as such. How will it turn out? Who knows, but don't count this one out.

Lincoln

A few weeks ago, this seemed invincible. In an exciting Oscar Season such as this one, though, any film's domination is tenuous. You'll find that we picked this to nab it all during our initial predictions, but that doesn't seem as likely now. As much goodwill as this thing has, interest in the film peaked last November and December. These days everyone has Silver Linings and Argo (2013) on their minds. For the aforementioned reasons to honor Spielberg, this could pull off what would now be a mild upset, but still a deserving win. When the fact keeps settling in that that Spielberg, for all his power, praise, and adoration, has but a single Best Picture under his belt, and that was twenty years ago, a win here seems more certain. It's certainly a safe, traditional pick and wouldn't stir anything too saucy on the part of the Academy, very much like The King's Speech. The only indication that it will lose is really the sheer amount of important indicator awards picked up by Argo. Argo's other nominations, though, are inconsistent with previous winners. If the Show adheres to years past, Lincoln takes it all.

Argo

So, here we are. Argo just won the BAFTA for Best Picture, but that was less likely to go to the more uniquely American film, Lincoln than what American Academy voters may decide. Still, add that to wins from the Golden Globes, PGAs, SAGs, and DGAs, and it seems like it's a foregone conclusion to give Affleck the Big Prize. Of course, we may note that the grand total of films that have won this Award without a Best Director Nomination since the 1930s is one (Driving Miss Daisy [1989]). Argo is also unfavoured in any other category. The last film to only win Best Picture was Mutiny on the Bounty (1935). So, this will either be the first time in nearly eight centuries a film will accomplish this feat, or it will pick up something else as well (likely either Editing over the favored Zero Dark Thirty, or Adapted Screenplay over the favored Lincoln). OR it won't win anything at all. If it picks up one of these awards at some point during the evening, it will likely go on to Best Picture. If not, Lincoln is more likely, but certainly not a total lock. There are a few big underlying questions - does the Academy honor Ben's achievement as a director as they did with his writing for Good Will Hunting (1997)? How will they feel about their industry in the forefront, saving the day in this film? Why is the frontrunner for Best Director unnominated?! Ultimately, it's going to be a wild night.

Who do you think is going to win the Big Prize? Vote in the poll on the upper right side bar!

First Impressions: Argo

In between an epic Super Bowl Weekend that pitted the Baltimore Murderers against the San Francisco Homophobes (unfortunately, only one of those names are ironic), I did manage to catch one of the hotter Oscar films and likely the eventual winner of the whole thing - Argo. Now, I may have to deliver some apologies to my dear friend Ben Affleck, who wasn't nearly as douchey in this film as I've been lead to believe previously. Well, as an actor he was still kind of a douche, even if he ultimately didn't really give that much to the role. As a director, though, he's certainly landed as one of our most competent out there.

And not even one "Ayatollah Ass-a-hollah" chant in the
whole picture

Argo is the story of a crazy, heretofore classified slice of American History that's really as much a part of Canadian and Iranian history as well. The singling out of American interests and downplaying the perspectives and roles of other nations is a political problem with Argo, but as a stand alone film, this thing is incredible. It tells the tale of a CIA operative who went undercover as a Canadian filmmaker to bust some escaped hostages out of Tehran circa 1980. Now, Iran in the early 80s wasn't nearly as glamourous as you may think. Despite the common Iranian stereotypes of bosomy half-naked models, rampant alcoholism, and far too much freedom, it turns out that the nation was actually quite conservative and hostile at the time. So naturally, it was kind of tough getting the handful of Americans out of the country.

Now, like I said, this is an excellent film even if it's not really historically accurate. The entire first two acts establish how high the stakes are, both on a personal level and on an international level. This interplay drives the film and each character battles between doing what they believe and what may help his or her country. Once the action really hits Tehran, the danger is at a constant high, with an incredible amount of tension and suspense throughout the remainder of the film, even though we know they come out OK. It's an incredible achievement. Of course, there really wasn't a hold-up in the Airport or a daring last second runway escape, and the mission was never cancelled at the last second from the High Command, potentially derailing the entire operation. That's alright, though. History doesn't always get it right - and by right, I mean it's not always as suspenseful and interesting as a movie could be. This movie takes history as a jumping off spot and improves upon it, capturing the feelings of danger and tension and places them upon the audience. It does exactly as a movie of its kind should do. The film captures emotion, not historical accuracy.

There is the tricky part of this film that indirectly insults or disparages some of our allies though. In the film the Americans who escape the embassy are turned down by the "Brits and Kiwis" and then just kind of play patty-cake in the Canadian Ambassador's crib until Ben Affleck comes and saves them. After the whole fiasco, the Americans disavow knowledge of the antic so that tensions would not escalate while Iran still held the other hostages. Thus, the Canadian Caper is born. The film seeks to honor the previously under-acknowledged American Tony Mendez's role in the Caper and downplays the Canadians. In reality though, both the Brits, Kiwis, and Canucks all helped out quite a bit. Despite this playful, thoroughly Americanized romp through history, the film retains the desperation, confinement, and outstretched odds that defined the situation.

This leisure suit brought to you by McDonald's

The film has perhaps become notable for having plenty of very authentic 1979-isms, even if the actual historical narrative is bunk. There's big glasses, big moustaches, sideburns, and whatever hairdo Affleck is rocking throughout the flick. It's a distinctly effective period film that features other elements of the time in meta-ways, such as opening with an era-appropriate "Big W" Warner Bros Logo. It all gives the flick a certain flavor that transports the audience back to the days of rampant inflation, wavering wishy-washy Carter policies, disco, and smoking. What an age to be alive.

The film does actually trade in its disco chops for a much better alternative - a rare, although recently less so, instance of Led Zeppelin music, "When the Levee Breaks." Apparently the catch was that he had to go in and change the shot so that when the needle drops it lands on the correct spot on IV that corresponds with where "Levee" starts playing on the Album. That's the best Zeppelin movie trivia you'll hear all day, folks. It's worth it - the song creates one of the best diegetic song moments of the year as the wayward Americans party for one last night of forced captivity while Ben and the Ambassador debate whether or not they will actually have the go ahead for the mission. It's a tough mix of emotions. Enter Zep.

Speaking of the Ambassador, he's played by veteran actor Victor Garber, who along with other veterans like Bryan Cranston, Alan Arkin, and John Goodman, form an incredible cast that tends to outshine Ben himself. Indeed, he tends to prove that he's a much better Director than he ever was as an actor. To pair this with the one Oscar he does have for writing Good Will Hunting (1997), and you wonder if he really wasted that decade he spent trying to act. Such is the curse of good-looking people in Hollywood. And don't think too hard about the fact that he's playing a Hispanic character, Tony Mendez himself doesn't really seem to identify with that race and also doesn't care.

I won't complain about Airport Security again. Taking
your shoes off is a pain but at least you don't
get shot for being an infidel.

An underrated element of Argo's brilliance is that it is essentially a deconstruction of the spy film more than Skyfall (2012) or even the Bourne series could pull off. It is one of the few films to treat spy work realistically. Ben Affleck doesn't just land in the country and approach a party in full tux right away. The film deals with the tension, terror, and minute details involved in sneaking in and out of a country that hates you and will kill you without a second thought if your cover was ever blown. There isn't any heroism here proven by gunplay or seduction. The heroism comes from a dude doing his job, getting others to buy in to both his cover and undercover identities, and leading people out of danger through avoiding violence, not instigating it. It's so subtle that it almost doesn't strike at first as a spy film. There are so much other things going on - heady political action, a slight critique of Hollywood from the inside, and not to mention Tony's own personal family problems that seemed slightly shoed-in.

Finally, there's some extra bits to wrap up here. The fictional film (that is never actually made), Argo, really appears sincerely atrocious and a completely blatant Star Wars (1977) rip-off. I mean, it has a straight-up Blue Chewbacca front and center, along with the droids, a sexy princess, a young hero, and a strange, racist Fu Manchu-looking villain. Even the Iranian Guards were like wtf is this? It's tough to believe that anyone would ever get pumped or excited for the sci-fi Argo, basically an Asylum-level mockbuster production akin to Transmorphers (2007) or Almighty Thor (2011). Luckily for every single person involved, the whole thing was just a cover. What's also notable is that the film featured a suddenly recurring robot, who has also been featured in music videos and the adult swim show, NTSF:SD:SUV::. That thing really gets around.

Lastly, this film will probably win Best Picture this year, indicated by its sweeps of nods at the Golden Globes, PGAs, DGAs, and SAGs. In a very unusual year, it could very well only pick up a statue in that category, possibly only scoring Editing or Adapted Screenplay as well. Keep in mind there was no Best Director nomination, which is really insane. Literally, outside of the 1930s, the only film to win Best Picture without a Directing nomination has been Driving Miss Daisy (1989)