2024: Thanks for all the Sharks! Best Films of 2014

We'll get to why you all come to movie sights, the best of the year, but the more and more I go on with this nonsense the clearer it is that the true test is their staying power ten years on. But really there's merit to both - films could be incredibly in the moment and impactful the first time you see them, or sometimes they fade over time. So while we've had a lot of random lists across the years here, this will be our official 2014 list, or at least what we're jazzing on right now.

#10: Noah

This is a ridiculously underrated film that really hasn't had any mention or reappraisal at all in the past ten years, but I really dig the cinematography and how much this thing pops. I do think the last maybe hour or so needed to be cut, yes, it does get that excessive with the Ray Winstone stowaway bits. I don't really think that adds anything to the narrative. It's not stupid like you'd expect it to be, nor is it preachy. Just good clean, pretty sad fun.

#9: John Wick

The more I looked at movies from 2014 the more it seems like the biggest ones had a long reaching influence. Every action movie in the past ten years wanted to be John Wick. And for better or worse this launched a lot of directors' and stunt coordinators turned directors' careers that have made a lot of really crappy movies. 2014 was all about pushing vibes with really innovative, creative, original stuff like this, Guardians and the LEGO Movie, which have had a ridiculous amount of imitators over the past decade. These have of course all failed because they are not coming from a place of original expression or novelty, but chasing a recreation of a feeling. Anyway, John Wick is still fun and clean as hell.

#8: Interstellar

Interstellar has gone through this quasi-appraisal ranging from "is it a masterpiece" to "is it even good?" I don't think it hits as hard as it did when it dropped but by all accounts the big ideas it drops are still very compelling. It's big, it's fun, it's part of the McConaughsaince. It's great.

#7: The Interview

I should probably stop throwing The Interview on this list. But the great thing about doing this ten years past is that we're not really beholden to any kind of popular whim at all. It's fun. I feel like calling this one of the last really great funny movies. Politically held up surprisingly well.

#6: Foxcatcher

I don't know where this movie is now, it was pretty lauded at the time but never really made a dent in any actual awards. It reminds me of the recent Iron Claw (2023) but maybe that's just wrestling. There is a match between intensity of performances, vibes, cinematography, and subject matter that gels very well. This was also an early introduction to how bold of an actor Channing Tatum can be. I don't think anyone really thinks about Foxcatcher these days but I do.

#5: Guardians of the Galaxy

I'm not sure any film really matches the influence of Guardians, it was such a big cultural force, and for good reason. It gave such few fucks and created James Gunn's now signature style of elevating the most genre of genre material into real human drama. Unfortunately it also led to ten years of "Well, if the Guardians could be come household names, why can't Moon Knight?" and such and such. It also led to a thousand imitators who did not come close to matching its style or attitude, from Suicide Squad (2016) to The Suicide Squad (2021) to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023). We're still trying to cop this crap in Borderlands (2024). It was such magic in a bottle, and although its legacy may be diminished by lots of imitations and endless milking by Disney Marvel, but it's still a great movie.

#4: Gone Girl

Gone Girl does an unreal job at understanding modern media, and feels like a warning of things to come that all just happened. It's also impeccable casting, looks great, and Fincher is crushing it here. But it's also an insanely deep character study. It's held up very well and you could watch it today.

#3: Birdman

I should probably watch Birdman again. It was such a giant of the time that it earned a permanent position on this list. It's probably THE movie I think of when thinking about 2014. I have a feeling it would lose some impact of novelty upon a second viewing where you could probably just pick out all the cuts, but it's still such a perfect marriage of lighting, music, acting, casting, and everything that it's hard to ignore. Totally ignored during award season. I mean, I guess it won Best Picture and three other awards but I'm still sore about Michael Keaton. Who has played flying-based superheroes in two franchise movies since this for some reason.

#2: A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night

I thought this was one of the greatest movies I've ever seen when I first caught it. I think the second time lessened the impact but it's still a great achievement. It's so damn lonely and iconic. It twists and writhes and plays with its own presumptions and impact, simultaneously informed by its context and ready to defy it. It all works and I still dig it.

#1: Under the Skin

I can't believe this is ten years old, but this remains one of the few movies I can recall that exists totally within the language of film. I'm not sure I can re-watch it, I probably need to. It demands such close watching while being the ultimate slowburn. But I still remember multiple scenes. I love how nothing is explained and you have to become engrossed into the visual language. It's a merging of form and function that I haven't really seen much like since.

That's that. I dropped Inherent Vice. I had trouble getting through it on a second viewing, I really loved it, and then I apparently totally lost interest. What We Do in the Shadows should also probably be here? Maybe? I also really remember liking Why Don't You Play in Hell? but I could not remember it at all, to be honest.

Top 10 Films 3.0: 2012-2014

As we did yesterday with years 2009-2011, it's about that time where we re-evaluate our Top Ten film rankings of yesteryear. Attitudes change and some movies hold up better or worse than others over the years. While this is certainly a pointless exercise with no real end year after year, it's definitely a nice way to be reminded of how many good flicks there are out there and an encouragement to see as many as possible. I would postulate that as my tastes have evolved, these latter years won't change that much - based both on their recency matching my current profile and the original lists being more solid and less random and pandering than when I first started this site.

Again, for our first realignment back in 2014, which also holds our first lists, click here!

2012:

The Campaign
The Grey
The Five-Year Engagement
Celeste and Jesse Forever
Life of Pi 
Skyfall
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
The Master

When we last met I was but the student

There's only three films that I have retained through the years, four since 2014 which is actually incredible. The Grey has maintained a low spot on the list while Django and The Master have unwaveringly held the top two positions. Other than that I've moved away from the slew of great action films in 2012 like Dredd and Looper in favour of the great comedies like The Five-Year Engagement and Celeste and Jesse Forever. I never thought much of Life of Pi, but it's grown on me, and in terms of big spectacle films I traded The Dark Knight Rises for Skyfall. 2012 is an all-around pretty solid year that I can see switching around quite a bit, while I don't think much can touch those top two giants. Other films like Moonrise Kingdom, Seven Psychopaths, and even Pitch Perfect were tough to leave off, but they're ultimately all too gimmicky. Then again, The Campaign gets the #10 spot as a film that's held up remarkably well as its outrageousness is eclipsed by actual contemporary political campaigns.

2013:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
Frozen
Prisoners
12 Years a Slave
The World's End
Pain & Gain
Spring Breakers

Inside Llewyn Davis

The Wolf of Wall Street
Stoker

omg shoes

I really love a list that includes Cloud with a Chance of Meatballs 2 and Prisoners so close to each other. You may have noticed how much I've loved the Phil Lord and Chris Miller films, but I'd argue that the sequel is actually the superior film in many ways. Now, to be sure, my original 2013 list was a total cop-out that just allowed me to list all the films I liked. That's all kind of bullshit. Of the 19 films listed, six remain here. In 2014 I re-ranked and as predicted, the lists are pretty similar, with seven films still cropping up here. The major difference is Stoker, which I just watched and loved, earning it the #1 spot. In future installments I'd be curious if that film's position is tenuous. Other than that this list is crazily similar. Frozen moves from #8 to #9, 12 Years a Slave moves from #6 to #7, and the Top Five largely remain identical besides the downvote of The World's End and the inclusion of Stoker. To be sure, when making the 2017 list I didn't even glance at previous rankings; I literally re-ranked from scratch, which means 2013 is remarkably stable, at least as far as my tastes are concerned. I would like The Lone Ranger to make it someday.

2014:

Interstellar
The LEGO Movie
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Snowpiercer
The Interview
Birdman
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice

Under the Skin

Scottish Men only use 10% of their dicks

Some years are weird with titles, like how 2012 has "The" in front of a lot of films. 2014 is all about "In" - Interstellar, Interveiw, Inherent Vice...2014 retains seven from the original list, but in drastically different order, with Under the Skin moving way up and Interstellar moving way down. Birdman I unanimously named my favourite at the time, although it's #4 in 2017. What's more weird is that in 2015 I re-ranked and only five remain from that one just a little over a year ago. Those are basically the Top Four, although I had difficulty leaving John Wick and Dear White People off the list - the former because it's a well-constructed action film that isn't that great of a film, and the latter for just being something that didn't stick with me as much as it did in 2015. Instead, Foxcatcher and Snowpiercer sneak in, both of which I still actively talk and think about.

These ranks ought to be considered Norwegian Morning Wood canon for at least the next three years. I'd be curious to see how anything changes between now and 2020 or if we've somewhat stabilized. We of course JUST ranked 2016 and re-ranked 2015 here, so you may check that out as well. As for the future, we can only guess as to which films rise to prominence, which seem to flash hot then fade, and which barely miss the cut in favour of Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2.

87th Academy Awards - Live Blogged Results!

3:31 pm: Hey folks! Come on and check back at 8 pm for the start of this nonsense. Now, last year I somehow went 20 for 24 on categories. There's no way I'm hitting that this year, there are a ton of really insane things that could go a number of different ways. Hopefully I've addressed a lot of that stuff in my reviews of each major category these past few weeks. You can check out my thoughts on acting, screenwriting, director, and Best Picture. Stay tuned for more managed insight all night!

8:35 pm: You can't really get more charming than NPH and Anna Kendrick. And that background was actually really cool and 3D looking. Let's do that in a movie sometime.

8:44 pm:

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Predicted Winner: J.K. Simmons

Actual Winner: J.K. Simmons

That rushing or dragging scene is the only moment that 99% of this country know from Whiplash. Still, it's a good moment. No surprises here, folks as JK finally nabs a very well-deserved Oscar for both this great film, his great role, and a lifetime of funny yelling at people.

Accuracy: 1/1

8:50 pm: Maroon 5 playing a track from Begin Again. So....bathroom break? They're getting dangerously close to the half-hour mark with only having presented one award. Why does anyone watch this ceremony? Just read all the winners when it's over.

8:57 pm:

Best Costume Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Predicted Winner: Into the Woods

Actual Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

This is actually a sure sign that The Grand Budapest Hotel is going to clean up a ridiculous amount of awards. I was headed more towards the Academy's trend of honoring dumb historical-ish musicals, but the crowd loves this chick and it's apparently her fourth Oscar. I could have probably expected this the way Grand Budapest has been raging lately, but whatever.

Accuracy: 1/2

9:00 pm:

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

Predicted Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Actual Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

This was an amazing category where I actually loved all three Makeup nominees, and I sort of think that Guardians actually deserved this, because it was amazing, but that old-ass Tilda Swinton is actually super-convincing. Grand Budapest is so set to win every single one of these, which is amazing.

Accuracy: 2/3

9:03 pm: Doogie Howser's intro jokes are solid.

9:10 pm:

Best Foreign Language Film

Leviathan
Ida
Tangerines
Timbuktu
Wild Tales

Predicted Winner: Ida

Actual Winner: Ida

This isn't a huge surprise, but I wouldn't have been shocked if Leviathan had had a little upset. That apparently wasn't to be. Ida actually seems pretty broadly liked and by the end of the Oscar Race it seemed to grow in notoriety far more than anything else offered here. Touching, smart guy, whoever this director is. Now play him off. Louder. LOUDER!

Accuracy: 3/4

9:18: This is just a terrible reminder that The LEGO Movie wasn't nominated for Best Animated Film...This is also the most extravagant Oscar performance ever.

9:25 pm:

Best Short Film, Live Action

"Aya"
"Boogaloo and Graham"
"Butter Lamp"
"Parvaneh"
"The Phone Call"

Predicted Winner: "The Phone Call"

Actual Winner: "The Phone Call"

Fuck yeah! I love nailing these categories. Mostly because it helps my average a ton. I have no idea what this is about, even when they were showing clips just now my eyes were down on the keyboard typing the category. I also dig these guys completely not giving a shit about the music playing them off. Why not? This is their moment!

Accuracy: 4/5

9:28 pm

Best Documentary, Short Subject

"Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"
"Joanna"
"Our Curse"
"The Reaper"
"White Earth"

Predicted Winner: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"

Actual Winner: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"

Tight. What the fuck is "The Reaper" about? That looked nuts. I dig this series of phone-call centric nominees winning the short subject categories.

Accuracy: 5/6

9:46 pm:

Best Sound Mixing

American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash

Predicted Winner: Interstellar

Actual Winner: Whiplash

Wow, very cool. I didn't totally think that Interstellar could pull this off, lately it just didn't seem like a popular choice. I might have thought American Sniper or Birdman would be the one to upset it though, but this is a cool award for Whiplash. It's getting some good attention, maybe my call for it for screenplay isn't totally nuts.

Accuracy: 5/7

9:48 pm:

Best Sound Editing

American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Predicted Winner: Interstellar

Actual Winner: American Sniper

This is totally not a surprise, and I'm more surprised that Sniper didn't win both of these. Whiplash really is that perfect mixing win, though, because it's such a music film that isn't really a musical. Sniper is so visceral and as it turns out, more popular than anything else here. I wonder if Interstellar will falter over visual effects.

Accuracy: 5/8

9:51 pm:

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette

Actual Winner: Patricia Arquette

I love these digs at like, Oprah and Streep. I don't think they are used to people making fun of them. Nice shot of Bruce Dern in the crowd. As for Arquette's win, that's a no brainer. Glad Arquette chose a little stump platform there, although I honestly had tuned out because of how boring the beginning of her speech was and how expected the win was. I want to write something like "fuck yeah, wage equality" but home come that keeps coming out as sounding sarcastic? It's really important!

Accuracy: 6/9

10:00 pm: Hey, look at that, another perfectly timed bathroom break. Thank you for saving "Glory" for the end. I should stop drinking.

10:03

Best Visual Effects

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Winner: Interstellar

Actual Winner: Interstellar

Yay! This sort of reminds me of how 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) also won for this category, which is of course, the only Oscar Stan Kubrick ever won. Very fitting for Interstellar. More visual effects projects need to aid our understanding of the universe.

Accuracy: 7/10

10:07 pm:

Best Short Film, Animated

"The Bigger Picture"
"The Dam Keeper"
"Feast"
"Me and My Moulton"
"A Single Life"

Predicted Winner: "Feast"

Actual Winner: "Feast"

Aww, "Feast" looks so cute! I correctly called all of the short subject awards, by the way, no big deal. I really want to watch "Feast" now, it looks awesome.

Accuracy: 8/11

10:09 pm:

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of The Princess Kaguya

Predicted Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Actual Winner: Big Hero 6

Okay, I really like how much NPH is addressing the snubs. He's doing an excellent job, but I wonder if any of that will rub the Academy the wrong way. Probably not. This is a bit of a surprise over How to Train Your Dragon 2, which had fallen into the default pic after everyone virtually assumed The LEGO Movie would be a lock. Don't worry, years from now everyone will remember The LEGO Movie over both of these as the superior work. Fuck, everyone does now! Unfortunately, I now need to win out to match my prediction accuracy from last year! That sucks and isn't going to happen...

Accuracy: 8/12

10:18 pm: The president of AMPAS is a middle-aged black woman? How the hell wasn't DuVernay nominated?

10:21 pm:

Best Production Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Predicted Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Actual Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

No surprise here at all. Grand Budapest's production is the best part of a very good movie. I now totes expect Grand Budapest to win the most awards at this ceremony without winning Best Picture. Or maybe it will! Staaaayy tuned!!

Accuracy: 9/13

10:25 pm:

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins, Unbroken
Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Robert Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski, Ida

Predicted Winner: Lubezki

Actual Winner: Lubezki

So Lubezki is officially the hottest cinematographer out there. Two wins in two years. Now I just sort of wonder if the single-take gimmick will get stale...no, it'll probably be out there more than ever. It's a telling trait that that could happen and it'll all look like crap because talent at the height of Lubezki is rare.

Accuracy: 10/14

10:43 pm:

Film Editing

American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Predicted Winner: Boyhood

Actual Winner: Whiplash

Holy shit, is Whiplash becoming a thing? Damn my screenplay prediction looks awesome right now. I wish I had been a little more adventurous. Boyhood has only won for Supporting Actress and Birdman has only won for cinematography. Sit on that for a while. Definitely a cool win, but I officially can't do better than last year now. Crud.

Accuracy: 10/15

10:47 pm: Terrence Howard was blown away by...The Imitation Game to the point where he's rendered speechless when introducing it? And then he blows through Selma? I'm not racist for thinking that's off, right?

10:50 pm:

Best Documentary Feature

CITIZENFOUR
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt in the Earth
Virunga

Predicted Winner: CITIZENFOUR

Actual Winner: CITIZENFOUR

I was almost thinking the Academy would shy away from this and stick with Virunga or something, but hopefully this win brings attention to a film that brings attention to the nuance of Eddie Snowden instead of the blind labeling of him as an American traitor. It's a pretty amazing film and speech here, considering the right wing backlash. Yay Hollywood! I mean, that NPH joke sums up the reductive nature of the National Attitude towards him and simultaneously negates that speech. Kind of a jackass move. I wonder if he teed up a possible joke for every nominee or just counted on CITIZENFOUR winning.

Accuracy: 11/16

10:59 pm: It's got to be kind of tough to come up with two different presentations for both the Grammys and the Oscars within a few weeks of each other. I think this is a little more epic, but either way I want to see John Legend's wife cry again when they win. Nice standing o and shot of Oyelowo crying. Then a shot of Chris pine crying?! Why is Chris Pine crying?! Did they just scan the crowd for anyone crying? I hope so.

11:06 pm:

Best Song

"Everything is Awesome" from The LEGO Movie (written by Shawn Patterson)
"Glory" from Selma (written by Common and John Legend)
"Grateful" from Beyond the Lights
"I’m Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Lost Stars" from Begin Again (written by Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley and Nick Southwood)

Predicted Winner: "Glory"

Actual Winner: "Glory"

Ha! I actually like that little bit between Travolta and Adele Dazeem and the tacit acknowledgment that Travolta can't pronounce anyone's names. Did Common and Legend even have time to make it back to their seats? For a film that hardly got any nominations, this crowd is loving Selma. Common rules, by the way. I've actually never liked him as an actor, but he's the man and a sublime wordsmith. And again, Chris Pine is down with the brothers! First one up to clap!

Accuracy: 12/17

11:16 pm: What the fuck? Why is Lady GaGa singing us Sound of Music tunes?

11:21 pm: Damn, Julie Andrews looks good.

11:22 pm:

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything
Gary Yershon, Mr. Turner
Hans Zimmer, Interstellar

Predicted Winner: The Theory of Everything

Actual Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

I told you! Grand Budapest is winning everything! It's crazy! This virtually means that The Theory of Everything will go home with no awards, unless that Eddie Redmayne buzz as of late pulls through and he dethrones Keaton. There is some chance in the Adapted Screenplay category, but Whiplash seems like much more the darling right now. This is awesome how that turned out.

Accuracy: 12/18

11:30 pm:

Best Original Screenplay

Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye, Foxcatcher
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Predicted Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Actual Winner: Birdman

Crap. I'm starting to slip hard. How did Grand Budapest miss this? More importantly, is this a sign that Birdman will upset Boyhood. I'm not thinking about that. It's nice to see Eddie Murphy making peace with some national institutions he hasn't really gotten along with lately, namely the Academy and Saturday Night Live.

Accuracy: 12/19

11:33 pm:

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Predicted Winner: Whiplash

Actual Winner: The Imitation Game

Whiplash would have actually been a really weird win, considering it was based on a short film that Damien Chazelle made. Graham Moore was the more conventionally expected winner, so fuck me for going out on a limb. I really thought the night was trending towards Whiplash, too. I now haven't predicted a winner right in the past three categories. This speech is actually really emotional and probably more relevant and immediate than any of the other politically charged messages of this night (of which there's been lots. That's a good thing).

Accuracy: 12/20

11:41 pm:

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Predicted Winner: Linklater

Actual Winner: Iñárritu

Wow, so this is really really swinging Birdman's way, which is shit for all my predictions. Iñárritu becomes a rare single-night double Oscar winner. He could become a three-way winner with a Best Picture, which would be a few shades of impeccable. I was looking so solid there for a while. This sucks. Help me, Julianne Moore. Actually, at this rate, Keaton may also pull through for Birdman after all.

Accuracy: 12/21

11:48 pm

Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton

Actual Winner: Eddie Redmayne

I like how they played the same scene to showcase both Keaton and Stone's performances. That film has so many good outlets for these great actors. Anyway, this win is unbelievable. The kid is obviously excited, which is cool, but it's still more a totally bait-y role than a totally immortal, career-defining / honouring role like Keaton's was, so it's kind of an all-around bummer. Also my prediction totals are truly terrible now.

Accuracy: 12/22

11:54 pm

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore

Actual Winner: Julianne Moore

I haven't seen Wild, what the hell was that cornea donation scene? Anyway, thank yo, Julianne Moore for being a great easy pick that makes me seem less stupid. How the hell was I 20/24 last year. I'm just going to keep reminding you of that to demonstrate that I don't totally suck at this.

Accuracy: 13/23

12:03:

Best Picture

American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Predicted Winner: Boyhood

Actual Winner: Birdman

Was that a little Barney magic with those predictions? Cool. Not as fun as selfies or pizza, but cool. Sean Penn, lighten up, Michelle Obama did this last year. These little vignettes for each nominee are really cool. Iñárritu wraps it up and completes a stunning trifecta of Best Screenplay, Director, and Picture. Consolation for Mike Keaton I guess. Damn you Birdman for completely wrecking my picks, I thought you were totally fizzled out although in October I thought you were a lock and also my personal pick for Best Film of the Year.

Final Total Ultimate Accuracy: 13/24

Not the worst year I've had, above .500 but waaaay worse than I thought I'd do, honestly. Not many of these were totally in the dark, but it ended up being the Birdman and Grand Budapest show, which I had figured to some extent but not this significantly. So these winners will immediately be canonized, and I think a lot of them will be pretty significant and well-remembered down the line. Until next year, folks - it's been real!

A Closer Look at the 2015 Best Picture Nominees

Here we are folks, a week out, so it's time to check out the big prize - the category that everyone really cares about and the one that will join eighty-six other films in the immortal ranks of cinema history. Best Picture. For your own reference, you can check out our looks at the actors, screenplays, and directors, along with all the other crap here. So let's get into Best Picture, ranked from least likely to most likely to walk home a winner:

Whiplash

We'll start with the biggest outside shot. Whiplash is a well-liked film that has a solid amount of support but it's not quite Best Picture material. It's a bit left of mainstream and a showcase for really authentic character work rather than the kind of industry-friendly narrative the Academy usually likes. Damien Chazelle is so young no one will really feel bad for him missing out, same for Miles Teller. J.K. Simmons is already a lock for Best Supporting Actor and I still think it could make some waves in Adapted Screenplay, but it won't earn Best Picture.

The Imitation Game

There is some chance that The Imitation Game pulls out a very unexpected win. It's a Weinstein film that everyone's parents seem to enjoy and it's totally in the vein of a The King's Speech (2010)-sort of classic historical persecution story that transcends some of those trappings to showcase a bunch of well-known up and coming actors giving their best work in years. It's all a little on-the-nose, and Oscar seems to more often than not anathema to such blatant attempts to court it. This could very well walk away with nothing, or maybe it really surprises with the kind of win that isn't actually surprising at all.

Selma

For all the rage against Selma's lack of deserving nominations this year, I think pundits tend to forget it is a Best Picture nominee. And maybe all that anger at injustice is enough to knock out an upset here. The support does seem more niche than mainstream, though, and the lack of nominations in the first place is a fair indicator of the Academy's general indifference, especially when there's so many nice, wholesome white nominees this year that are far more tempting to vote for. An unbelievable win here would be an incredible sign of the times and a huge reparation for its lack of other nominations, but those chances seem slim.

American Sniper

There is hardly a film with less timely buzz here than American Sniper, and since it stands out as not only the most financially successful of every Best Picture nominee, but one that made its money very very recently, there's no counting it out. Whether for good or ill, and no matter what political side you're on, its controversy has also made it a pretty buzzed about topic as of late. Clint Eastwood is also a pretty familiar face for any Academy voter. So why doesn't it feel like a winner? Maybe it's its partisanship or controversy that the Academy wants to steer clear of, especially with all the heat it's taken already this year.

The Theory of Everything

This is the kind of movie that no one will really remember a year from now, or even six months from now, but it also fits so neatly into the kind of picture that the Academy loves. It's a strange year for those historical disability/persecution biography films that are almost over-the-top in their bid for Oscar's favor. The Theory of Everything is gaining more ground than even The Imitation Game, though, and if the charge for Ed Redmayne is legit over Keaton there could be enough support her for this to take it all. There is also a lot of support here and there, from Score to Screenplay. But the next three flicks just have too much momentum now.

The Grand Budapest Hotel

I think people are still counting this one out despite its solid awards wins so far and great buzz. Its resume includes a Golden Globe win over Birdman and big hauls for writing, including the WGAs. There is a sense of justifying this and the following two films, and voters seem to think that Wes Anderson finally deserves some recognition. It's also a beloved film that seems to kick the notion that voters only care for recent releases. In fact, its longevity seems to have helped it stick in peoples' minds for a long time, which also speaks to its quality. It's tough to say if this is Anderson's best film, but that doesn't totally matter - as long as it's the one that voters buy into enough to hand him Best Picture.

Birdman

Birdman has DGA, PGA, and SAG wins, so wait, why are we even talking about Boyhood? Well, things don't always line-up, but if there's any film on this list that could make for an easy upset, it's this. It's a movie about movies, but not only that, it's about artistry and acting, in addition to being an extreme technical achievement. All of this should win over just about everyone and with a cast and production crew that is all incredibly likable and deserving, it really seems like a lock, if not for Boyhood matching it at nearly every turn.

Predicted Winner: Boyhood

The Best Drama Golden Globe went to Boyhood, and that along with its BAFTA is impressive enough, but it has also dominated a lot of critics circles while being equally as impressive a technical achievement as Birdman. It's also full of delicious acting to appease that branch and its enough of a classical family drama story for most of the Academy to get behind while being gimmicky enough to earn support from those looking for a more diverse Best Picture winner. I still think Boyhood is the safest bet to walk away with winning the whole thing, but to be honest, there's not a single film here whose win would surprise me.

So what do you think? It's actually a fairly interesting race this year, which is good for everybody. What's your pick for what the Academy thinks is the Best Picture this year?

A Closer Look at the 2015 Directing Nominees

Here we are again, folks - another week closer to the 87th Academy Award Ceremony, so it's time to take a gander at the Nominees for Best Director. You can check out our dishes on the Actors and Screenwriters here and here, but today it's time to get into the folks who are nominally the most responsible for the execution of a film, or at least those who are typically blamed for either its success or failure. Best Director often lines up with Best Picture, although that's certainly not always the case (Argo [2012], of course being the famous recent example of a Best Picture winner without a nomination in this category). And with the DGAs and BAFTAs in the can, we have a clearer idea of who might win this. Who are we kidding, there's no telling. That's the fun part!

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Bennett Miller has been behind the helm of a few prestige-style flicks that have been pretty Oscar-friendly, such as Capote (2005) and Moneyball (2011), although neither of these films actually won much besides a Best Actor win for Philip Seymour Hoffman. Most of the buzz around these flicks didn't really involve the director, even though Miller was previously nominated for Capote. Still, it's not like there's a feeling he's due or anything and Foxcatcher is starting to look like another Moneyball - a well-liked, highly nominated film that will walk away empty handed.

Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

I have never heard of Morten Tyldum before, but he's actually been pretty successful in Norway. There is nothing exceptionally special about the direction of The Imitation Game, at least in any sense that elevates it outside the realm of your typical historical biopic. That's sort of exactly why he's nominated, though, because the Academy nominally loves this stuff. In a year where other artists made some stunning directorial work, though, it's all the easier to ignore him.

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

This could be a sly pick, because even though this is only his first Best Director nomination, there's a general sense of "How the hell is this Wes Anderson's first Directing nomination?" The Grand Budapest Hotel is also gaining steam, although perhaps not as much as Birdman lately. Then again, there's the common dismissal of Anderson by the Academy and his specific and particular style has never really won over voters. Maybe he's getting to the point where people are understanding what he's been trying to achieve and peers are appreciating his work. Unlikely, but again, would not necessarily be surprising.

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman

One of the greater moments leading up to the Oscars is right here - it's actually looking like a bit of a battle for Best Director! Iñárritu has wrapped up the Golden Globe and the DGA and is actually looking like a decent lock. Of course, Linklater just got the BAFTA, and is leading a lot of the critics circle award tallies. Obviously the directing for both is a tremendous feat from logistical standpoints, and part of the great irony is year is how both these films are on the opposite spectrum - a 12-year passion project vs. a single-take film. It ought to come down to who impressed the Academy more, and I might call Iñárritu's work the higher achievement, but I think Linklater just has the greater support right now.

Prediected Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Linklater has built up a nice career that many people respect and just like Wes Anderson there's a definite "Why has he never been nominated?" vibe going on. Birdman has ended up being weirdly divisive which may be its downfall on February 22nd. Boyhood is by far the safest choice, although it is a fallacy to believe that the Academy always makes safe picks, after all, they sided with Ang Lee's Life of Pi (2012) over Spielberg's Lincoln (2012). Birdman is weirdly surging and Iñárritu is favored in the precursors, but when it's split like this, some predictive award has to be wrong, and the DGA/Globes tend to be more wacky than the BAFTAs/Academy Awards. Who knows. I still feel like this is Linklater's to lose, but he could very well lose it if he's not hustling his ass to get those final votes off this week.

A Closer Look at the 2015 Screenwriting Nominees

We're another week closer to Oscar Sunday, so naturally we're taking some more time to look deeper into the more important Award Categories. You may check out our Acting Round-Up here, but today we're all about writing. I always think the writing is one of the most important aspects of a good feature film, even if most studios will revise the hell out of any given work. That's less the case many times for small projects like these that can find a way to succeed with more freedom, independent production, and the oft-shared responsibilities of screenwriter and director in these kinds of films. So let's assess the merits and chances of these nominees:

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jason Hall, American Sniper

I'm more and more torn about American Sniper, namely because it's getting to be by far the most popular of the contenders, at least in terms of recent box office success and thanks to its inherent controversy (from its subject matter to its...fake baby), it's on the tip of everyone's brain. It doesn't seem to have much going for it with its Screenplay, though, which is the one thing no one seems to be buzzing about. It would be a shock actually if Sniper won anything, and this would be a rare nab.

Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice

The Academy didn't really seem to like Inherent Vice, but I'm also thinking that P.T. Anderson will be due one of these days. It is his fourth screenwriting nomination, after all, and he's considered by many critics to be one of our greatest living directors. He is, however, usually compared to Kubrick, who in all his years as a filmmaker only won an Academy Award for Best Visual Effects on 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968). Really makes you think that this shit doesn't matter at all, huh?

Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything

The Theory of Everything gets boosted because there feels like a good chance this thing starts winning everything on February 22nd. It's adored by the Academy and the subject matter is ripe for nice conservative love of historical disability flicks. Like American Sniper, though, the screenplay isn't really what this film is known for, and it would make much more sense if it was honoured for acting, along with some possible nods in Score and stuff. Still, a win here wouldn't be shocking.

Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

In recent weeks this is actually looking like the one to take this prize, and by all accounts it fits the bill pretty well. The Imitation Game is another kind of film the Academy loves, and it's full of new and old actors who lavish every inspiring trailer-made line of dialogue that flows perfectly. It's also pretty possible at this point that this is the only award it'll win, which would make this a really fitting consolation prize for a decently well-liked film that doesn't have a chance to win Best Picture.

Predicted Winner: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

This is still my really bold prediction. Whiplash is certainly a more interesting screenplay than either The Theory of Everything or The Imitation Game, and everything about this race in recent years feels more about recognizing young talent. It's an artfully crafted story and Chazelle has gotten a lot of praise for both his writing and directing, and plenty of publicity through J.K. Simmons mentioning his awesomeness whenever he wins an award (which has happened a lot). It's more of an interesting bug in the minds of voters than The Imitation Game even if it's much less widely seen or more easily digested. I can see myself falling on my face for this, but I do want to look awesome when it nails the surprise win.

Best Original Screenplay


Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

I am really impressed that Nightcrawler got a nomination here, although it's bizarre that this is the only outlet for this film to shine while Jake Gyllenhaal isn't recognized in the Best Actor category. It's clear that Nightcrawler is pretty unloved by the Academy, even though it has a lot of appreciation from critics. I'm not sure the screenplay is as strong as the performances anyway, even if it offers the kinds of turns that are rare for the genre. It doesn't really have a shot here.

Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye, Foxcatcher 

This is an interesting addition, and I'm actually curious if Foxcatcher makes some heads turn at the Ceremony with some surprise wins. It's represented in a lot of big races, although it is absent from Best Picture. The screenplay does a great job weaving this delicate tension throughout the picture, although I also think that this is another film that is supported by its acting more than its writing. While it had a lot of momentum leading up to its debut, I think a lot of that is exasperated now.

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

This is a kind of rare low rating for Boyhood, and I think it will win a solid number of awards, but just not for screenplay. With everything surrounding this film, the screenplay is logistically impressive, although it may be more the director, producer, and actor's ability to pick it up once a week for twelve years and execute it thoroughly. This notion of course speaks to the strength of the script itself, that it didn't get stale or tired after that time. Actually, I'm not sure about the writing history of Boyhood, did they update it on the fly to include modern sensibilities as time marched on? Or was it all written at once to be timeless? Maybe this is actually awesome, although that still doesn't make for a great coherent original writing piece. Well, here you go.

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo, Birdman

Impressive feats of logistical prowess inhabit the big contenders this year, and the screenplay of Birdman had to excellently account for the nature of its pseudo-one take shot. It had to be timed beat for beat to allow every actor to get into place, and the dialogue must have not only rang true to the characters, but be precisely timed so that one scene could flow into the next without complete disarray. It's also like editing the film while writing the screenplay, because it's not like bits of unused or untrue dialogue could be thrown out or trimmed later. It's such a remarkable achievement that comes down to the writing (see? I at least think one movie is based more on its writing than acting) that really deserves to be honoured. I am therefore not entirely sure why, but no one is really paying attention to this and everyone seems to instead be dishing on Wes Anderson.

Predicted Winner: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Like the other great Anderson writer/director nominated for his screenplay, Wes Anderson has a handful of nominations under his belt, but he's usually ignored by the Academy. This is his third writing nomination as a matter of fact, with a fourth coming in the Best Animated Film category for The Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009). This award would very much be honouring his career of really good, really quirky writing, and finally putting a stamp on Wes Anderson-esque dialogue. The Grand Budapest Hotel's journey as of late has been somewhat improbable, and it's now a legitimate contender to upset both Birdman and Boyhood for not only this award, but the Best Picture race as well. There's almost little doubt that it sweeps a lot of technical awards, but this would be a very strong indicator that it's a real threat elsewhere as well. The script itself is good, there is no other picture this year that balances so many characters with so little screentime while still maintaining really authentic believability in each.

So, who do you think is going to win each Screenwriting Category? Do you agree with me on Whiplash? Are these really the best written films of the year?

A Closer Look at the 2015 Oscar Best Acting Nominations

With the SAG Awards in the can we ought to take a glance at the folks who are up for the big ones on February 22nd. It's always interesting to examine why these people were nominated and how the politics ought to play out to get them their win. It really boils down to who is down to grovel the most along with which producer can most aptly position their films in front of the right people. By now there doesn't really seem to be any heat in any of the major acting races, except for Best Actor, which has suddenly been thrown for a loop. Let's dig in:

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night 

So we'll take this thing from least likely to win to most likely. And as much as we're fans of everything Marion Cotillard could ever do, this is a really low profile film that's more of that interchangeable fifth slot than anything that can really contend. This could have been Jennifer Aniston's place for Cake (2014), which she nabbed for the Golden Globes and SAG awards. I really know nothing about this role or this film, but that just further proves she ain't gonna win.

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

This was my favourite performance of any of these ladies, but I feel like Gone Girl has been off the Academy's radar in a big way this year. Outside of The Social Network, the Academy hasn't really realized the genius of Dave Fincher, and even then Best Picture eluded him. I kind of get a Rooney Mara Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2011) vibe, which was also a great performance by an aggressive woman in a Fincher film ignored at the ceremony. A few months ago Pike was all over this race, but lately all the vibe has just been with other people.

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Reese Witherspoon was also a producer on Gone Girl, so she should be happy with a Rosamund Pike win, right? If only that was up for Best Picture, she could save face here. She of course is a previous winner from Walk the Line (2005), and quietly had a pretty awesome year between this, Gone Girl and reuniting with Johnny Cash himself, Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice (2014). She's on a lot of minds and Wild is great in a "see-it-with-your-mom" sort of way so there's certainly some buzz here. In the end though, this simply isn't her year, mostly because there's a big name ahead who has never been honoured.

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

This is sort of a bold call over Reese, but The Theory of Everything is peaking a big way right now and honoring young cute talent that does competent work in a safe historical picture is right up the Academy's alley. If only she was disabled! This is certainly not the last we'll be seeing of Felicity Jones, either - she may turn into a perennial like Amy Adams that's never honored or someone who gets her due sooner or later. But she'll be back.

Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

I know nothing about Still Alice except for the fact that Julianne Moore is in it and that she's going to win the Oscar. That's partially true because everyone on earth is okay with that, except for maybe Jennifer Aniston. This is very much a way of honouring a lot of her past work in much better, more notable films, especially some that have slipped away from the Academy in the past. I'm just curious at this point whether or not Seventh Son (2015) gives her a little Norbit (2006)-effect and destroys her acting credibility the same way it supposedly did for Eddie Murphy a few years back. There's a bit of that going around this year. Stay tuned.

Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher 

Here's another performance that I really digged, if only because he was so against type and Carell pulled it off so well. It's always exciting to see comic actors actually act and Carell has been walking this line ever since Little Miss Sunshine (2006). While a few months ago Foxcatcher looked to be a lock for a lot of acting nominations and wins, even possibly for Channing Tatum (leading to the incredible billing of 22 Jump Street [2014] starring two Oscar-nominated actors). Mark Ruffalo did get nominated, showing a bit of love, but there's not much other buzz for this beyond Carell's prosthetic nose. Hey, it worked for Nicole Kidman.

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

American Sniper ought to benefit tremendously from its recent box office success - it's certainly the most prominent in voters' minds. This is also Brad Cooper's third nomination in three years, so it's clear the Academy is in love with this guy. He's also really transformed in a role that's perfect for him. So what's the problem? This movie, although popular, is dividing the damn country, and even though it has plenty of fuel for both liberals and conservatives, its inherent conservative leaning ought to bug the typically liberal Hollywood. Then again, the Academy tends to side conservative. Who knows how this will play out, actually. Ultimately there's a lot of buzz in this race, just not for Cooper.

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Historical persecuted dream role for an up-and-coming hot actor who was just cast in a Marvel movie? This should be a lock more than Bradley Cooper! The Imitation Game got a ton of nominations but I actually haven't predicted it to win anything. That sucks. It's a super-Oscar-baity kind of film, though. It's like The King's Speech 2: Way Gayer! Despite that seeming stumbling block, it's also a great film for the family because of all that historical inspire-your-life crap. It may do better than I give it credit for, and the timing is good, but there has just been such a battle between the other two guys here I hesitate to give the Golden Man to Cumberbatch.

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Okay. Eddie Redmayne could very easily win this whole thing. Which is nuts, because he seems like the total opposite of Mike Keaton. It was fair when they split the Golden Globes, but after that SAG win, I don't know. Redmayne could do it. It's pretty natural. Famous historical disabled figure playing pretty fairly against type (his heretofore most famous role was that jagoff in Les Miserables [2012]). I'm only really curious if he gets a little Norbit-izing from Jupiter Ascending (2015). Keaton is still the obvious choice, but there's a distinct possibility that the next three weeks are the biggest of Redmayne's life.

Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Almost all of these actors have a classic Oscar Role that has a long history of being rewarded. Keaton, though, is highly regarded from a lifetime in the industry, has never been honoured for his work and it's the perfect marriage of role and actor. Seriously, this was built for him expressly. He is Birdman and Birdman is fantastic. It's also a true actor's movie and it's clear the acting guild liked the film from its Best Cast win at the SAGs. The Academy generally likes films about filmmaking or in this case, the industry itself, and although it crucifies the current Hollywood business model, it upholds the importance of acting as artistry, which is huge among this crowd. I just can't picture upstart Redmayne winning, although he'd actually be a doll. But how do you miss the opportunity to honor this modern picture in favor of some typical crap?

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern, Wild

I didn't really know that anyone other than Reese Witherspoon was in Wild. You know, at this moment going through this I've come to the realization of how little I know about most of these, but that should work in my favour, right? I'm a part-time movie blogger, if I haven't heard of you or your role, you're not getting the word out enough. I loved Laura Dern in Jurassic Park (1993). That's also my level of investment here. She does have a solid body of non-Dinosaur related work behind her and an award here could easily honor that. Too bad that's true for just about everyone here.

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Remember all that stuff I said about Cumberbatch? The same mostly goes here except Knightley didn't play gay, so it's tough to imagine her winning here. I love that that's a thing. Why aren't gays honoured on screen for just being normal? Like Kieran Culkin in Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (2010)? That's the first normal gay role I can picture, actually. But just like African Americans it's tough to get noticed if you're not showing white people how they persecuted you. I should get back to Keira. She's gotten more into non-crappy roles, and to be honest, she's way more interesting in Laggies (2014), but whatever.

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

It's not even fun anymore, really. Streep gets nominated because she's Streep, even upstaging people in her own movie who at least match her level like Anna Kendrick and Emily Blunt. It's tough to knock Streep because she is awesome and great here as usual, but it's getting to be like the New England Patriots. I want to see someone else in the Super Bowl. There isn't much buzz at all around Into the Woods (even though I picked it to win Best Costuming), and it was pretty well received in general and Streep in particular.

Emma Stone, Birdman

Emma Stone is loved by everyone on earth and she's made a nice name for herself with a ton of feel good roles in easily digestible flicks like Easy A (2010) and Crazy, Stupid, Love (2011), and even in tripe like The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) she's pretty sublime. I'm also just happy that Superbad (2007) now boasts two Academy Award nominated actors. When will we come to our senses and honor McLovin? Not soon enough. This is a great role for Emma, who is able to add real-Emma Stone-ness to a character with more depth than she's been provided before.

Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Here's another long due acting award. Patricia Arquette doesn't have any real career-defining roles despite a lifetime of being in everything. Really this is honouring Medium. And Little Nicky (2000). It'll give some good momentum to Boyhood, and she does do an excellent job as mother of the boy in question. She's wrapped up every award she needs to, and with no one else in this category really in a classical position to earn this, there's no sense in choosing anyone else.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Duvall is of course a living legend, who is rounding out his seventh Academy Award nomination. He won in 1983 for Tender Mercies, which seemed like a way to recognize him for the incredible work he was doing in the 60s and 70s. Still, it's been 31 years since that win, and this nomination makes him the oldest nominated actor. Of course he's most known for being more grizzled than Garth Brooks. Anyway, The Judge was somehow a terrible movie, despite having an incredible cast and this nomination is almost surprising considering Duvall has still been pretty awesome. I mean, Get Low (2009), people.

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

I'm not sure why Arquette has caught on while Hawke hasn't, it's not like one is really better than the other in this movie. It probably has more to do with the fact that the Supporting Actor category this year is quite a bit tougher and is full of people more deserving of long-time honouring than the Supporting Actress. It would be cool if Hawke was given something for his oft partnering with Dick Linklater, but it won't be here.

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

I'm also given to buy into the Ruffalo train after the SAGs, because everyone there just seemed to love him for some reason. It's always a good indication that that branch of the Academy digs the dude. He's getting to be a more high profile, Hulked-out actor but like I was saying about Carell, Foxcatcher just doesn't seem to have caught on the way it seemed it would when it was first announced. It's possible it makes some last minute waves, but at this point it just seems like a long shot.

Edward Norton, Birdman

Here's our second Hulk on the list, which is fairly awesome. Ed Norton is the kind of guy you can't believe doesn't have an Oscar. In fact, he's only been nominated three times. He's also damned incredible in Birdman, which is made all the tougher because he is supposed to play a character who is a really good actor. The Academy ought to side with him pretty hard, or they might not like what they see in the mirror he's holding up to them. Like Keaton, it's also a perfect role for him, merging the fictional character with perceptions of his public persona to create a really memorable performance within and without the film. Ultimately it's just really really unfortunate that J.K. Simmons is in this race.

Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

I still thin that Whiplash is an underdog for a lot of Awards come Oscar Night. This is a guarantee, though. While I mentioned that Patricia Arquette has been in everything, that's small shit compared to Simmons. I mean, let's start with Farmers Insurance - that's an incredible role. But if you've ever needed an aloof father, angry boss, or demolitions man with IBS, Simmons has been the man for the past twenty years. He's had a few incredibly articulate acceptance speeches on his way to winning every major award leading up to this, and is one of those "everyone-loves-him" kind of long-working actors. This category also loves the loud, boisterous villain, and that's exactly the kind of thing he pulls off in Whiplash. There's really no question in this one.

So, what do you think, folks? Will Redmayne upset Keaton? Is it even an upset anymore? What about young Felicity Jones, Brad Cooper, or Eddie Norton? Leave a comment below with your own thoughts and predictions!