Top 10 Films Version 3.0: 2009-2011

Movie-liking is a fickle, fickle business. Endlessly subjective and contextual, our Top Ten ranks in years past have proven to be really far off what I now feel are great. Every so often I feel compelled to retcon our Top Ten lists dating back to this site's founding, which is a mind-numbing eight years ago. Generally I think tastes stay kind of in the same ballpark, but it's endlessly interesting to me which films end up having staying power and which fall by the wayside. So, we'll be readjusting here, starting with 2009-2011.

For the original list, which also includes our first realignment, check this out.

2009:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Bad Lieutenent: Port of Call New Orleans
Moon
World's Greatest Dad
Observe and Report
The Hangover

The Hurt Locker

The Road

Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man

I've done nothing!

To be sure, only three films from our original 2009 list made the cut seven years later (Observe and Report, Inglourious Basterds, and A Serious Man), but while Basterds earned the #1 spot in 2014, I'm a firm believer that A Serious Man may not only be the greatest film of 2009 but the greatest Coen Bros film of all time. Six films survive from 2014, but the new ones added are a few that I definitely saw back in the day, but have only grown fonder with since. Mainstays like Funny People and UP fell off because while they contain some really interesting ideas and great scenes, neither is really structurally sound seven years down the line. I've also maintained interest in the Zombieland / Adventureland Jesse Eisenberg combo, but neither makes the cut over Nic Cage being insane or Robin Williams' hilariously dark swan song

2010:

Let Me In

Get Him to the Greek

Inception

The Fighter

Hot Tub Time Machine

Harry Brown
MacGruber
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World

The Social Network

KRAW!

Black Swan

I'm still pretty nuts over a lot of 2010 comedies, but while The Other Guys and Jackass 3D fall off, I think Get Him to the Greek holds up, but barely. I can't believe Harry Brown never made this list, and MacGruber has sincerely gotten better with age and comes back after being left off 2014. The Social Network has always ranked high, but I can't believe that Black Swan almost fell off the list in 2014. Overall this year does better, retaining six films from my original 2010 list and six from 2014, although not the same six. Five have made it all the way from the first ranking.

2011:

Moneyball

Attack the Block

The Tree of Life
Contagion
The Muppets
The Raid: Redemption

Rango

Melancholia

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Take Shelter

Kneel before Shannon

2011's realignment has all to do with films I have finally gotten a chance to see in the past six years. I originally ranked 11 films, so I repeated that gimmick in 2014, but fuck that, ten is immutable. Only three remain from 2011, but six from 2014, so that's in line with 2009. Rango falls as Take Shelter takes its place at the top. The Descendants, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, and Bridesmaids fall off the list, which had all been pretty steady. I don't think anyone really remembers The Descendants at all, and while the latter two have held up very well, they can't really compete with the true art that came out of 2011 that seemed to escape critical and cultural examination at the time. That's because Tree of Life and Melancholia are boffo insane movies with little regard for traditional plot or character structure. I think the jury is still out on whether or not these are good movies, but I have grown to deeply appreciate the pure cinema on display.

Some may question the purpose of this - is there really a point in shifting around film ranks of yesteryear? Well, in the three years studied we have three new "Best Films," one of which did not appear at all in previous rankings. I think that's important to acknowledge in our thirst to find the best films we got, especially when we consider checking out of a few films, like I did with Take Shelter for years and years.

Stay tuned, loyal readers, for my re-appraisal of 2012-2014!

The Funniest Movie of the Year for the Past 20 Years

Watching the atrocious Dumb and Dumber To (2014) has made me think a lot more about how great Dumb and Dumber (1994) is, which I'd consider one of the funniest movies of all time. But then I think about This is Spinal Tap (1984) or Blazing Saddles (1974) or The Jerk (1979) and have to reconsider. I think I can at least claim, however, that Dumb and Dumber is the funniest movie of 1994, which got me thinking - what movies can claim that title year by year? Comedy is always a subjective, contentious issue, so  take a look at my pics here and then feel free to troll the hell out of the comments:

1994: Dumb and Dumber

You could have figured this out by the heading of this post. There's very few more quotable comedies that are so keenly written in its dumbness. The plot is a loose construct for plenty of road-trip jokes but when it settles on Aspen and making fun of the erudite Colorado skiers, it really shines.

1995: Billy Madison

Between Madison and Happy Gilmore (1996) I always think this has an edge even if it's really just a prototypical man-child movie. There's so much subtle insanity to the world, though, which is constantly much stranger than Billy himself. From the sardonic High School principal to the unnecessarily lusty maid, there is so much more going on around Adam Sandler that pushes its modern surreal humour. Also every scene looks exactly like my Elementary School.

1996: Black Sheep

This was the first really difficult year. There are better comedy films out there for sure, like Kingpin or Fargo, but is anything funnier than Black Sheep? Kill whitey, hell no.

1997: Orgazmo

Austin Powers is the easy choice here, but to be honest, it's aged pretty poorly. And I still get hard when I hear those first few chords. Trey Parker and Matt Stone's humour was still developing here, but this is a surprisingly confident film full of shit like this that still cracks me up for no reason.

1998: The Big Lebowski

It's tempting to go with more late 90s efforts by the Farrellys or Matt and Trey, who dominated 90s humour, but when the Coens are on, they're on. The slow burn of how funny The Big Lebowski really is in undeniable, and while it may not necessarily be seen as a defining comedy movie (it does seem to defy genre), it's engrossing and endlessly re-watchable.

1999: Galaxy Quest

Going way outside the box, here, folks. American Pie is the most mainstream comedy of 1999 and Office Space is probably still the most relevant, but Galaxy Quest has put in its time, if only as an eerily canny Star Trek spoof. I just wish J.J. Abrams had seen it.

2000: O Brother, Where Art Thou?

Again, we have a pretty mainstream option in Meet the Parents here, but I can't tell you the last time I watched it, and despite renewed relevance through James Franco, I'm leaning towards Coens again, because Dude, Where's My Car? also just feels old.

2001: Zoolander

2001 is tough. Why is 2001 so tough? Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back may win on jokes, but it's not a very good movie, and the references wear thin. Wet Hot American Summer is also far more subtle, but is that a good thing? It's more conceptual than laugh-out-loud. It really hurts to knock off Super Troopers, but I've seen both recently and Zoolander just wins. By now it feels like it should be overrated, but it just wins.

2002: Jackass: The Movie

I feel like every year has one comedy that irks its way onto College Campuses and is seen enough to be quoted to death and revered without ever really being that good. In 2002 this was National Lampoon's Van Wilder, which has been diminished through a decade of sequels and knock-offs. I thought about going way outside the box with Kung Pow: Enter the Fist, but I'm not sure its anti-comedy holds up. So let's go with most laughs per minute.

2003: ELF

2003 is an incredible year for comedy, particularly Christmas flicks on either side of the spectrum - Bad Santa and ELF as well as Will Ferrell vehicles on either side of the spectrum - Old School and ELF. Let's split the difference and hit what's probably one of the more unique comedies on this list - an immortal, hilarious, at time subversive Christmas picture that also gave us a blonde Zooey Deschanel.

2004: Shaun of the Dead

Anchorman probably leads quotes, although Napoleon Dynamite can't be too far behind. It broke my heart not to give this to Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle, but there are far too many chuckly character moments in Shaun of the Dead that really hit on point to ignore it here.

2005: Wedding Crashers

There's a clear battle here between this and The 40-Year Old Virgin, but you need only to remember that first time you saw Wedding Crashers - it's the movie that made everyone involved a star and for damn good reason. Pre-critical mass Vince Vaughn is a spectacle to behold.

2006: Beerfest

For the longest time I informally considered Clerks 2 to be 2006's funniest movie, but I think it needs to step down to Beerfest, which has held up a little better. Clerks 2 mostly boils down to poor acting and a donkey show, which also echoes throughout Borat, which is a strong contender. I once called Borat one of the best films of the decade. It may now slide into that "enjoyable" slot (jeez look at that list on that page - you should no longer be surprised by most of these musings here), and I'm not sure I've revisited it all that much since.

2007: Superbad

This and Knocked Up felt so similar - sharing a similar cast and producers and coming out pretty close to each other, both being really funny and really surprising successes. I'm leaning towards Superbad being funnier, although you can switch the titles around in this paragraph and come to no stronger a conclusion.

2008: Tropic Thunder

An unsung contender here is Forgetting Sarah Marshall, which was a little quieter upon release, and has much better character work than just about any other film here, but I've got to hand the crown to Tropic Thunder, which blew me away upon release. Damn, I forgot about Pineapple Express...wait...what was I doing here?

2009: The Hangover

There's not really a debate here. I actually still think the sequel is funnier (even though it's, you know, the same movie), but The Hangover is a giant in 2009 and instantly entered that hall of immortal comedies. Hell, it even brought back Mike Tyson so he could be solving mysteries to this day.

2010: Get Him to the Greek

Tough call between this and The Other Guys - the latter may be more mainstream (is it?), but when you're comparing scenes between Mark Wahlberg and Sean Combs you know you've stumbled into a weird place. I want to go with this movie because I love every second of it, I already dissed Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and I listen to Infant Sorrow constantly.

2011: The Muppets

Here's another year where the two funniest films are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum. Bridesmaids holds a mean fight against The Muppets, but there's no "travel by map" in sight, so fuck that. It's tough to remember a theater experience laughing as hard as I did for The Muppets. Actually, I think I brought a flask to that one.

2012: The Campaign

I think that over time, 21 Jump Street has emerged the champion of 2012, and The Campaign sort of got swept under the rug, and I trashed it after I saw it for not taking a tough enough stand. Actually read that first paragraph, oh jeez. Comment on this one, folks. Two years down the road I think it's incredibly underrated, and an especially fitting team-up of Ferrell and Galifianakis who are gods of this yearly list.

2013: This is The End

Here is where I reached Muppets-level in-theater laughter without even a flask in hand! This is still one of my all-time favourite movies that I thought hit every note perfectly while having some really interesting things to say about the public personas of film actors. The Backstreet Boys ending still leaves something to be desired, but I can deal with it for the preceding ninety minutes of hilarity.

2014: 22 Jump Street

I've talked a lot about my problems with 22 Jump Street, I in fact, JUST talked about it, but it's still the funniest movie of the year by a wide margin. Neighbors comes close, and I'm curious which of these movies we're talking about a few years from now, but for now, it's all Jump Street.

Damn, is it Thanksgiving? What are you doing reading this? Go watch Planes, Trains, and Automobiles (1987) for goodness sake!

And argue away in the comments! This is especially ripe for discussion - do you think that even my contenders should be contenders?

First Impressions: Muppets Most Wanted

Everything about Muppets Most Wanted (2013) can be summarized in the first thirty seconds of the film. It pikcs up immeidately where The Muppets (2011) left off, literally, with the backs of Jason Segel and Amy Adams along with a wrap on the old movie. They quickly dive into an introductory song that sets up the disappointment and stupidness inherent to sequels with a bit of the same tongue-in-cheek flair that filled Segel and Nick Stoller's film to the brim. While this is typical and as refreshingly as on the nose as most of the The Muppets, but it's also telling you right away that this film isn't going to feature Segel and it's not going to be as good. I think we all knew that, though.

There's a decidedly different air to Most Wanted. By all means it's a hilarious film and certainly one worthy of the Muppet Canon, not in a Muppets From Space (1999) awful sort of way, but not really a The Muppet Movie (1979) or The Muppets legendary kind of way either. More like a The Great Muppet Caper (1981) whatever sort of way. It's not really going to be remembered as anything really special in ten years, but it's another installment in the franchise that adds to its net value. SPOILERS from here on out.

25% Natasha Fatale, 40% Ouromov, 35% Baby Mama

So, why is that? Well, part of that has to do with the humans involved. Adams, Segel and every other human from the first film is tossed out in favor of noted Golden Globes hosts Ricky Gervais and Tina Fey, along with Ty Burrell rounding out the human cast. It's telling that the film suffers because of the goofiness of all three compared to the much more grounded roles and real pathos earned by the first humans. But we didn't come to see humans, right? It's true that the moving pieces of felt get a whole lot more to do while the human characters become one-note cartoonish caricatures. Maybe that's a good thing.

Ricky is suitable here, but this isn't really his forte. His song is especially awful, and he never looks all that comfortable singing and dancing. He's also just not that likable as a really deceptive Lemur Burglar. Now, Gervais has made a career out of being unlikable, but his treachery isn't as fun to cheer for as Constantine's over-the-top #1 Burglar character. And not one shout-out to Ocean's 12 (2004) to be found.

Tina Fey is a ridiculous ham that is probably the best of these three, completely sending up Russian Gulag Guards (they had it coming). It's oddly fitting that this comes on the heals of everyone on earth hating Russia for their Crimean Annexation, making it all the more comforting to mock and laugh at these crazy backwards people. Burrell also suitably mocks the French in ways that are really lacking these days. His buddy cop role with Sam Eagle is pretty close to perfect but it's never in the center of the proceedings.

As for the rest of the humans, these kinds of movies have always prided themselves on some really thick cameos, but unlike Steve Martin or Mel Brooks appearing in The Muppet Movie (1979) as great bit parts, these cameos are more flash and you miss 'em sort of things, with everyone from Tony Bennett to P.Diddy showing up for a mug. There's also a ton of really quick bits with people who aren't all that noteworthy. Is that James McAvoy as the UPS guy? An Stanley Tucci as a Gulag Guard? Why? I did get some pleasure watching Tom Hiddleston as "The Great Escapo" and Hugo Stiglitz as a quickie German Police Officer. The trio of Russian inmates played by Danny Trejo, Ray Liotta, and Jermaine Clement (a nice appearance considering the work his Flight of the Conchords bud Bret McKenzie has done for this series), may fall in line with this, too but there isn't much substance here.

Now, we can't just complain about humans, that's like whining about the humans in a Godzilla movie. The Muppets themselves are spot on and given lots of room and time to be as weird as they wanna be. Especially when Constantine, posing as Kermit, gives them free reign to do whatever they want within the Muppet Stage Shows. There may be a dig here at the validity of reviews, suggesting nefarious interests that prod one show to be better than another (in this case, outright bribing), but I'm not sure there is enough to support that theme, either.

Constantine himself is pretty enjoyable as an extremely silly villainous frog, hopping around, butchering names with an obtuse accent, and being a ridiculous host and lover of Miss Piggy. It's also good that they found a role for the most recently introduced Muppet, Walter, who remains a solid character addition from The Muppets. They even highlighted this with a direct call out to Rizzo and Robin, who were absent from the previous film.

I can't imagine what kids think of this reference
when it comes up. I guess just "That looks so silly!"
Fairly accurate I suppose.

There are plenty of excellent gags here, from the Swedish Chef imitating The Seventh Seal (1957), to epic sets by Electric Mayhem and accusations that Fozzie is so dumb that it must be an act. Or the German sign, "Die Muppets." Kermit himself demonstrates his natural showrunner abilities in the Gulag, with plenty of references to The Shawshank Redemption (1994) or even The Great Escape (1963). At the same time, the movie plays with what would happen to this particular Muppet ensemble if it lost its rock, a frog leader who may be overly cautious, but one with an eye for good critical work.

I ended up most fascinated with the last line in that first song, though. All the Muppets proclaim their movie to be called The Muppets...Again! which was indeed the original title of the production. It's possible the song was recorded before the title change to Most Wanted, but it seems unlikely that they wouldn't have been able to alter this. Instead, it's as if the Muppets, despite all their self-awareness and winking at the audience, don't actually know what kind of movie they're in until it's dreadfully too late. They in fact believe they're fulfilling another great sequel trope, the international journey (jeez, move it movie it to Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted [2012] for any more proof that this idea is still everywhere. Or the aforementioned Ocean's 12). But they're actually in this double-crossing doppelgänger heist movie, which informs their awareness levels up until nearly the final scene.

Then we get some horrible green screen and we're out of here. Despite the gaps in genre knowledge on the part of the principal protagonists, this is a much more straightforward experience than the thorough meta-commentary of The Muppets. It still hits the Rule of Funny pretty hard, though, and is worth it for any Felt Fan.

Reconsidering Our Top Films From 2009 - 2012

I realized something important when perusing through all the films of 2013 while making my obligatory "Best Of" list this year - looking back on some of my selections filled me full of rage and shame. It's the tricky thing about lacking the benefit of hindsight - some films even from just a few years ago haven't held up, and others that I thought were trash have grown on me. So I decided to do some revisionist history here. I went back the past four years and looked at my Top 10 Lists from 2009 - 2012. Now, it may just be the fact that it hasn't really grown on me yet, but 2012 still looks pretty good. I may not be changing that too much. But you had better believe I'm scrapping the rest.

Here, with the benefit of digesting and discussing each film for a little while longer, are the new rankings:

Original 2009 List:

#10: AVABAR
#9: Observe and Report
#8: I Love You, Man
#7: The Great Buck Howard
#6: Up in the Air
#5: Funny People 
#4: Zombieland 
#3: A Serious Man
#2: Inglourious Basterds 
#1: District 9

This isn't altogether awful, and one reason I'm pumped for looking back at these things is remembering films such as The Great Buck Howard. That certainly isn't a flick though that I've really seen or thought about in four years. I can't even understand why AVABAR is here at all, I suppose that, even though I only placed it at #10, I was somewhat swept up in the sheer spectacle of its release, like literally, billions of other people worldwide. Four years on, though, I can judge it for how hollow it really is. So, here's my revised list:

Updated 2009 List:

#10: Where the Wild Things Are
#9: UP
#8: Observe and Report
#7: The Road
#6: Funny People
#5: The Hangover
#4: Adventureland
#3: The Hurt Locker
#2: A Serious Man
#1: Inglourious Basterds 

The good ninja wears white, of course

I was tempted to include other flicks like G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, which is actually turned out to be one of the most enjoyable and re-watchable Sunday afternoon movies of the past five years. I just still couldn't really add it, though. I did add the most depressing film of all time, The Road, which I still think about, and Spike Jonze's Where the Wild Things Are, which really frustrated me by not meeting my expectations the first time I saw it, but also made me think a lot to figure it out. There were also some films whose greatness I didn't buy into in December, 2009 like The Hurt Locker and UP. Finally, the original installment of The Hangover deserves its place as one of the more tightly written comedies of the past decade, as well as one of the most debaucherous and influential.

Even though I think I Love You, Man did have some staying power, it's been overshadowed a bit by superior Paul Rudd buddy movies like Role Models (2008) and Dinner for Schmucks (2010). Even though I still love Zombieland, I do think that continued permutations of the zombie genre have lessened the tremendously fresh impact it had on me. Finally I scrapped my #1 pick, District 9 just because, ultimately four and a half years on, I don't really care about it other than the fact that at the time it was an astoundingly new movie. Maybe Elysium (2013) drained the appreciation of its unique aesthetics out of me.

Original 2010 List:

#10: Exit Through the Gift Shop
#9: Toy Story 3
#8: Cyrus
#7: True Grit
#6: Hot Tub Time Machine
#5: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
#4: Black Swan
#3: MacGruber 
#2: Inception
#1: The Social Network

Updated 2010 List:

#10: Exit Through the Gift Shop
#9: Black Swan
#8: Get Low
#7: Jackass 3D
#6: The Other Guys
#5: Get Him to the Greek
#4: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
#3: Hot Tub Time Machine
#2: Inception
#1: The Social Network

Featuring Grammy Award-winning robots

My horrible blockbuster that I actually think is pretty decent now is going to be Tron: Legacy. I can also watch that just about any time of the year. Looking back on it now, I'm surprised how many great comedies came out of 2010. Even though I did really dig MacGruber, it definitely didn't stay with me as much as Get Him to the Greek or The Other Guys did. I was tempted to also throw in Dinner for Schmucks, but I think that has some years to go before it overtakes anyone. I also don't think anyone cares about Cyrus, and even though it was pretty epic, I've found I haven't really cared about Toy Story 3 since that summer three years ago, which isn't really true for other Pixar films like UP or Brave (2012).

I had this really odd debate within myself whether to include Get Low or Easy A. They really couldn't be farther apart. Ultimately thought I think it may be a pretty good movie, Easy A just went down too easy for me. Eh. So I threw in Jackass 3D, because it's still one of the best 3D experiences I've ever had at the multiplex (how many blogs use that terminology), and one of the finest uses of slow motion technology ever. You'll note that my #1 and #2 selections haven't changed. I still think those are the tits.

Original 2011 List:

#11: A Dangerous Method
#10: Hugo
#9: The Rise of the Planet of the Apes
#8: The Descendants
#7: The Artist
#6: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo 
#5: Bridesmaids
#4: Attack the Block
#3: Rango
#2: Drive
#1: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Updated 2011 List:

#11: X-Men: First Class
#10: Bridesmaids
#9: Fast Five
#8: The Tree of Life
#7: The Descendants
#6: The Rise of the Planet of the Apes
#5: Moneyball
#4: Attack the Block
#3: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
#2: The Muppets
#1: Rango

Mostly because I can't get over
the name, Imogen Poots.

There were a lot of great films in 2011 as I'm looking back on it, now. My rainy day film is the vastly underrated Fright Night, while we wait for underappreciated comedies like Hall Pass, The Sitter, and Our Idiot Brother to mature. I also remember really digging Johnny Depp in The Rum Diary at the time, but I can't say I've really thought about it since. Let me also hit you quick with Cedar Rapids, Midnight in Paris, and Contagion that all really tied for the #11 spot, but haven't really been relevant since. So, I've thrown out a lot of the overhyped Oscar-bait muck here and added some of the finest blockbusters that have emerged in the past couple years, including Fast Five and X-Men: First Class.

I'm not so sure about The Tree of Life, but I still think it's worth noting, even if some of its fire may have dissipated. I still love everything on here, and as Jonah Hill's brand gets stronger, so does Moneyball. And yes, I ranked The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo right next to The Muppets. There's no accounting for my taste in film.

Original 2012 List:

#10: Haywire
#9: Silver Linings Playbook
#8: The Grey
#7: Argo
#6: Looper
#5: Lincoln
#4: 21 Jump Street
#3: The Cabin in the Woods
#2: Django Unchained
#1: The Master

Updated 2012 List:

#10: The Grey
#9: Ruby Sparks
#8: The Dark Knight Rises
#7: Dredd
#6: Zero Dark Thirty
#5: Seven Psychopaths
#4: 21 Jump Street
#3: Goon
#2: Django Unchained 
#1: The Master

Escape from Space!

My total underrated good time romp is clearly Guy Pearce having the time of his life in Lockout, which is as 80s throwback as you're going to get. This year wasn't as strong for immortal comedies, although I might contend that The Campaign does its part. So I swapped out a bunch of those Oscar Winners that I don't care about any more for some that seemed more prescient - Zero Dark Thirty and Dredd, of course. And even though The Cabin in the Woods was a game-changer and remains one of my favorite films of the year, I couldn't see myself watching it again after knowing the twist. That being said, I have replayed the twist's dire aftereffects countless times on YouTube. To be honest, the same goes for Looper. It was an incredible movie, but do we care in 2014?

Goon ended up being my favorite movie of the year, and it's a delight to watch every hockey season. Alongside fare like The Grey, I added the intricate, surprising romantic comedy Ruby Sparks. I was tempted to add Moonrise Kingdom, but it's a bit too much like The Midnight Coterie of Sinister Intruders. Finally, with all this other nonsense, I thought The Dark Knight Rises proved itself to be at the top of the superhero game and deserves that recognition here. Bane was a bigger threat than the Joker in a better movie. Deal with that.

It's 2014! Top Ten Most Anticipated Movies

Now, in 2012 we offered the twelve things were were most looking forward to. In 2013 this number jumped to thirteen. We're cutting that off right now before it gets ridiculous. No one's going to be looking forward to seventeen different things in 2017. That's stupid. Let's stick with ten. Maybe some more if we have time. Anyway, here are ten movies coming out in 2014 that have struck our fancy:

#10: Amazing Spider-Man 2 (05/02)

Half-Palpatine, Half-Soloist

Okay, this is more just because we live in Rochester, NY and saw this thing filmed live, but it could be good, right? The first in the unnecessary reboot featured great actors, a great director, an abysmal but much more "comic-book-y" story, and somehow a pretty terrible flick. So how are we pumped for this? More great casting, more uses of Spider-Man's horrible animal-themed villains, and most importantly, the idea that this whole thing is building to a Sinister Six movie. The villains assemblage idea sounds pretty damn intriguing and works well with the banks of characters Sony actually owns and could create the anti-Avengers we've always dreamed of seeing. Or it's just shit. Whatever.

#9: Dom Hemingway (04/04)

I'm not sure why this tickeld my fancy, maybe it's Jude Law riding some great Soderbergh and Sherlock Holmes waves out of overexposure and into likability again. Or maybe it's just because this movie looks damn wacky and cool. It's got some nice slick attitude and just enough bite to rise above the crowd. We hope.

#8: The LEGO Movie (02/07)

This is horrribl-omg look at that trailer. We have lots of trust here in Phil Lord and Chris Miller keeping up LEGO's integrity as well as a great does of wackiness, but still, aren't LEGOs more fun to play with and not watch? I never really understood that with like, LEGO video games and cartoon shows. Still, if it's funny and innovates the adaptation of its source material in some genuinely clever ways, all can be forgiven. Soon, too.

#7: Transcendence (04/18)

A mysterious, self-important movie from the cinematographer of The Dark Knight (2008) starring Johnny Depp as Bender from "Overclockwise" (S6;E25). Still, it'll be better than anything else coming out in April and Wally has a lot of goodwill that he's just leached from Chris Nolan. That always works out, right? Jeez I'm actually really harshing this at #7. Maybe it will be cool.

#6: Interstellar (11/07)

A mysterious, self-important movie from the director of The Dark Knight. Yeah, Nolan has yet to really make a bad movie. Even insomnia (2002) was pretty legit. As long as he's batting 1.000 we're looking forward to his next plate appearance, and McConaughey's star can't get any brighter right now in the yes of legitimate film fans. We're all in until we find out otherwise.

#5: Guardians of the Galaxy (08/01)

Marvel needs to get its wackness on. It's about time for them to put on a crazy space adventure starring the most random yet likable cast ever assembled and risk all the good will they've accumulated so far. This flick is really a shameless ploy to boost some unpopular characters into the mainstream, but who gives a shit, it's working. Anything to get away from their broad cookie cutter approach and heretofore inability to craft an effective sequel. Let's prove that space works. Thanos much?

#4: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (07/11)

Talk about a sequel to a movie everyone thought would suck. Off the heels of Rise of the Planet of the Apes comes this behemoth, still strutting around in Andy Serkis' perfect chimp mo-cap glory. Suddenly it's the "Fast and Furious" effect - the joke franchise gets a primetime July release date. What the hell? There's some good recycling and moving on going on - the flick trades Franco for Oldman as its go-to human with an intensity absent from the first pretty damn good go around. Still without the hype befitting it, Dawn is set to rock the hell out of a relatively quiet summer before 2015 explodes.

#3: 22 Jump Street (06/13)

What were we saying about sequels to films everyone thought would suck? How was 21 Jump Street (2012) the funniest movie of its year? Through meta-self-referential statements acknowledging its own awkwardness, the unrelenting passion of Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum, and the latter's surprisingly apt comic chops. The first trailer leaves much to be hoped for with securing the tone for what could be an awkward and cumbersome comedy sequel. Can Phil Lord and Chris Miller do it again or will their fresh streak wear thin? Keep reaching for that rainbow, folks, as long as it keeps having fun with itself, it'll land.

#2: Godzilla (05/16)

Okay - one more film that has no right to be here. This should be such a joke. I mean, why remake Godzilla? And what kind of Zil are we getting? Didn't we already try an American Godzilla which sucked (ecept for the soundtrack - totes legit, bro)? Are we in the age of Kaiju Movies suddenly getting a big budget CGI treatment? Wait, wasn't that the whole point of loving old Godzilla movies -half-kitsch, half-adoration? What the hell is this shit?! It comes down to another one of those "look at that trailer!" moments - suddenly this thing could be cool if it sticks to its guns.

#1: X-men: Days of Future Past (05/23)

Days of Future Ass

Bryan Singer returns to his best non-Usual Suspects (1995) film. It looks to be the Avengers version of the X-Men movies (there's a bit of that going around), mashing up another surprisingly great 2011 film (X-Men: First Class) with the boys and girls from the first X-Men go around. Or is it more the Fast Five effect of getting everyone exited for the prospect of getting the whole gang to get back together? Either way, about 3/5 X-Men films are pretty solid and the franchise is surprisingly experimental. I'm down for some time travel elements, why not? Superhero movies are pretty ridiculous anyway - if they handle it well, everyone's game, and it's based on character drama and growth instead of explosions and fan service, it'll have anything Disney or Warner Bros is doing beat.

Close calls...

I shit a lot on the impotency of Marvel films, whose sequels, namely, Iron Man 2 (2010) and Thor: The Dark World (2013) can't keep up with their originals, while also existing this franchise vacuum that prevents real investment, simply because they'll never fade away. With that said, can Captain America: The Winter Soldier prove me wrong? I do hope so.

Among other blockbusters vying for our attention in 2014 comes what should be the grandest Rock movie ever, Hercules, which based on his diet and muscles will obviously be awesome. I'm not sure that The Hobbit: There and Back Again will meet Return of the King-like business or acclaim, but after The Desolation of Smaug was actually pretty worth it, I'm more jazzed for The Hobbit finale than I should be. Finally in the blockbuster wannabe category, we've got The Expendables 3, which is still a thing for some reason. I've seen every Expendables movie in the theater and I always go for the same reason - to see even more big action hero names paired together one last time. I have always left disappointed in how shitty that was. I can honestly say I am once again primed for a big letdown.

As far as comedies go, the only ones on our radar right now are two big sequels, Muppets Most Wanted and Dumb and Dumber To. Without Jason Segel, our Muppet hopes have dwindled, but Gervais and Tina could pull that wreck from the ashes. And honestly, there's no reason to cheer for the Farrelly Brothers anymore. Three great immortal 90s comedies aren't enough to make up for the last decade of horror. Even if Hall Pass (2011) wasn't too bad.

So there you have it. It's NMW's guarantee that this top ten will be the exact Top Ten list of every pundit in Hollywood come December 2014. No, there's no way that's happening. Happy January, bastards.

Oscar Zone, Vol. IV: Nominations & Predictions

Now that we've settled into a little bit of Oscar Season and the Golden Globes have come and passed, welcome to the Fourth Edition of the Oscar Zone - Norwegian Morning Wood's ultimate source of Oscar Knowledge, Predictions, and Inevitable Failure. It's always a tough spot of the year, dealing with Oscars. On the one hand they're fairly meaningless - a win is much more an indication of which studio was able to lobby politics in its favor the most rather than an accurate judgment of the integrity of the year's best films. Still, it's the most prestigious official award you can get in the film industry, and Oscar certainly has a way of canonizing its recipients as some of the best. It also immortalizes some films in ways nothing else can. Why else would anyone in 2013 care about Crash (2005)? For good or ill, they're a big deal and have a huge impact on the industry, if only for being the sole reason why some films are made.

They're also pretty fun to predict, talk about, and argue over. That and Box Office Predictions are the closest thing nerdy film snobs have to a Fantasy Football Season. Without further adieu then, here are our predictions for all 24 categories. First, though, here is how we've done in years past, and you'll actually note that I've gotten better each year:

2012: 16/24
2011: 14/24
2010: 12/24

Ugh, I'm really bad at this. Let's get to it. Predicted winners in BOLD.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

This is a race essentially coming down to Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook. While Silver Linings is hitting at the right time and is the only film since Warren Beatty's Reds (1981) to score an acting nod in every category, romantic comedies (which is the closest genre you can put this in) very rarely win Best Picture. Likewise, the love of Life of Pi is evident from the ridiculous amount of nominations it received as well as the idea that since the Academy outright snubbed Ang Lee on Brokeback Mountain (2005) they may try to rectify it here.

Ultimately this seemed in the bag for Lincoln - which can also be seen as righting a past wrong (his snub in '99 when Saving Private Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love and its Weinstein Machine), until Argo kicked ass at the Golden Globes. The American voters in the Academy ought to shine much higher on the American epic, Lincoln, although Hollywood does love depictions of its own, as seen with The Artist (2011) last year. It's ultimately a tough pick, but as Spielberg and Affleck come down to it again, the heady historical drama (see also: The King's Speech [2010]) ought to win the day.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Denzel Washington for Flight

This is essentially coming down to Dan and Hugh, but there isn't really a question that the towering performance of Lewis will leave him with an unprecedented third Best Actor Trophy. As the Golden Globes indicated, everyone is in love with this performance. While it's not as totally in the bag as his turn in There Will Be Blood (2007), if he nails the Screen Actors Guild Awards on January 27th, it's all but assured.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts for The Impossible

This is shaping up to be the most interesting race of the night. You've got two great young acting talents, J-Chast and J-Law battling it out through two breathtaking, career-defining roles. They both have recent nominations in their history (Jessica for Supporting Actress in The Help [2011], Jennifer for Leading Actress in Winter's Bone [2011]). They also both won their respective Golden Globes in the drama and comedy categories. No matter who wins, it won't be the last time either of them is nominated. Although Zero Dark Thirty was so entirely driven by Jessica's performance, I'm giving the edge to Jennifer. It's very unlikely that anyone else from Silver Linings wins, but it's clear that the Academy was enamoured by the acting. Will her dig at Meryl at the Globes hurt her? This could sure go either way - what will the SAGs think?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin for Argo
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained

This is an insane category in that every nominee has already won an award, making it one of the most competitive races ever. Yes, for once, the Supporting Actor Oscar Winner is murky. I landed on Tommy Lee here through eliminating everyone else. Christoph Waltz easily wooed the Hollywood Foreign Press into his Golden Globe win, but he was better, or at least fresher during his last win as Landa in Inglourious Basterds (2009). PSH had a dominating performance, and since it was an especially featured role that could have gone leading, that may be in his favor, although the Academy seems to hate The Master. This could easily go to De Niro as sort of a capstone to his career, like they did with Alan Akrin for Little Miss Sunshine (2006), but this hasn't been the case lately (see: Mickey Rourke losing for The Wrestler [2008] to Sean Penn's Milk [2008]). With Tommy's scowl gone viral, who's doesn't want to see more of him in the spotlight?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams for The Master
Sally Field for Lincoln
Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook

This was preordained from that first trailer for Les Misérables. The specific moment that Anne won her Oscar - her single take, live on-set rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream" has been the centerpiece of all of Les Mis' marketing for good reason - it's the one guaranteed shot at Oscar that it has. Of course, it will probably walk away with quite a bit more.

Best Achievement in Directing

Michael Haneke for Amour
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild

Kudos to however Spielberg knocked Affleck and Bigelow out of this competition. Maybe he enlisted Bill Clinton to help him. In one of the wackier categories that doesn't line up at all with either the Golden Globes or the DGA Awards, Spielberg and Ang are really the only consistent nominees. Lincoln has far more widespread love than Life of Pi, and the Academy has shown that it loves them directors that can recreate them historicky period times - it's his to lose.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Amour: Michael Haneke
Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino
Flight: John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty: Mark Boal

I can see this going to Moonrise, it's the kind of quirky (awfully clichéd word to describe a very nuanced film that's otherwise hard to describe, I know) pic that has soared here in the past (Little Miss Sunshine, Juno [2007]), but it's totally out of momentum by now and the seriously crazy journalistic lengths Mark Boal undertook should be recognized. He did just win this award for The Hurt Locker (2009), and it's fun to see him go against Tarantino again in the same category. QT nabbed the Globe, but he was pretty shocked at it. Will the Academy approve such liberal use of the n-word? I think not.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Argo: Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild: Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi: David Magee
Lincoln: Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell

The past five awards have all been based on books with similar Best Picture momentum. It also helps that Tony Kushner's adaptation an navigation of complex 19th-Century politics is astoundingly clear, concise, and impactful. Most of these were also nominated for WGA Awards, but we won't find that out until February 17th, a week before the Oscars. We won't need to, Lincoln is all over this.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Brave: Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman
Frankenweenie: Tim Burton
ParaNorman: Sam Fell, Chris Butler
The Pirates! Band of Misfits: Peter Lord
Wreck-It Ralph: Rich Moore

Holy shit - the Best Animated Oscar is actually contested! While I dug Brave, there were many who thought Pixar had slipped a little, and that's reflected in my prediction here. Indeed the flick was kind of out there. The inclusion of The Pirates! Band of Misfits is intriguing and also makes this category full of three claymation pictures. That might indicate that claymation is hot among voters this year, in which case the best of the lot may be Frankenweenie. Wreck-It Ralph, though, had a far more engrossing hook, brand, and box office haul, causing me to lean in its favor.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Amour (Austria)
War Witch (Canada)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)

Amour was nominated for Best Picture...and is the only Foreign Language Film so nominated. Doesn't that mean it's the best Foreign Language Film? The same thing happened with animated films Up (2009) and Toy Story 3 (2010) - it's kind of a foregone conclusion it'll win here, which is spectacular, because this category is crazy hard to predict some years. The lack of the French film The Intouchables (2012), which for a long time was a foregone conclusion as an Oscar favourite, is a little surprising, but since Mike Haneke already cleaned up among his own Foreign brethren at the Golden Globes, he'll probably go for the kill here.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Anna Karenina: Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained: Robert Richardson
Life of Pi: Claudio Miranda
Lincoln: Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall: Roger Deakins

It's clear that there is some Life of Pi love with its astounding 11 nominations, but it's not really favoured to win that many. That expression of love ought to come through here, although Kaminski is 2/5 at the Oscars and if Lincoln sweeps, it's his. Roger Deakins, however, is 0/9 at the Oscars and really deserves a little Golden Bald Man as sort of a Career Achievement Award. The cinematography of Skyfall was also one of its more notable, if not its best aspect. Still, I don't think the Academy will go for it.

Best Achievement in Editing

Argo: William Goldenberg
Life of Pi: Tim Squyres
Lincoln: Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook: Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty: William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor

Editing is another nice way to acknowledge how much the Academy loved a film without really giving it a major award. 0D30 has plenty of love but is a bit to divisive for them to really back in anything major (except maybe Jessica for Best Actress). This could of course mean that Argo leaves empty handed, which seems highly unlikely. If it ends up making a run for Best Picture, this ought to fall its way.

Best Achievement in Production Design

Anna Karenina: Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright
Les Misérables: Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi: David Gropman, Anna Pinnock
Lincoln: Rick Carter, Jim Erickson

The production design of The Hobbit was exceptional and deserving, but Les Mis is hitting a bit harder right now. Return of the King wowed in 2003, but that was riding a ton of Lord of the Rings buzz that hasn't followed the more middling Hobbit. Experts at Gold Derby have pointed out that this category has not gone to a film set in contemporary times in twenty years, and many of its experts have sided with Anna Karenina, Les Misérables, or Lincoln. Looking at the last few winners though, Hugo (2011), Alice in Wonderland (2010), and AVABAR (2009), it seems like by far this category fancies fantasy rather than period productions. That splits this category between The Hobbit and Life of Pi, and with its 11 nominations, the latter has the advantage.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Anna Karenina: Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables: Paco Delgado
Lincoln: Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror: Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman: Colleen Atwood

Dueling Snow White tales aside, at first this may seem like the perfect category for Anna Karenina. It's a dopey period movie that no one really saw, and follows a long line of recent winners such as Marie Antoinette (2006), Elizabeth: The Golden Age (2007), The Duchess (2008), and The Young Victoria (2009). It's predicted to win by a wide margin, and I wouldn't be surprised if it did. However, in all these years, no film has contested here that has had as much support as Lincoln. Both The Return of the King and The Artist won here when they were nominated with plenty of additional Best Picture support. However, however, this year is looking to be much more like 2010, where The King's Speech won Best Picture, but many other awards were split - it was nominated here and lost. I think that will hold true for Lincoln and we'll see another crappy period flick nab the honor.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock: Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samuel
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane
Les Misérables: Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell

This award has actually quite often gone to the bigger blockbuster films such as Star Trek (2009), The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe (2005), Return of the King and The Fellowship of the Ring (2001). If The Hobbit wins anything, it's this one, but with films such as La Vie en Rose (2007) and The Iron Lady (2011) also pulling this award out, it's really fair game. I give an edge to Peter.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Anna Karenina: Dario Marianelli
Argo: Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi: Mychael Danna
Lincoln: John Williams
Skyfall: Thomas Newman

No one is really running away with this so far this year, I'm leaning towards Lincoln based on its strong support elsewhere, but like cinematography, Life of Pi could very well pull away with this one. In years prior this has gone to sweeps (The Artist, Slumdog Millionaire [2008], Return of the King), near-sweeps (The Social Network, Brokeback Mountain) and totally random picures (Up, Atonement [2007]). Betting on John Williams and Lincoln is fairly safe, although this by far his best score. Life of Pi did conquer at the Globes, and the score is damn good, so a win there would not be surprising.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Chasing Ice: J. Ralph ("Before My Time")
Les Misérables: Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer ("Suddenly")
Life of Pi: Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree ("Pi's Lullaby")
Skyfall: Adele, Paul Epworth ("Skyfall")
Ted: Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane ("Everybody Needs a Best Friend")

To be honest, I'm just glad we have a good field of nominees here instead of the two we had last year, even though that gave The Muppets (2011) a nice easy win. Incredibly, no James Bond theme has ever won an Academy Award - that will end in 2013. Everyone loves Adele, and she might as well add an Oscar to her ridiculously long list of Awards. "Skyfall" is a spectacular track, both for the movie it's featured in and for everyday casual listening - this really can only be rarely said for movie songs (but often for Oscar-winning movie songs - I love me some Three 6). Les Mis had a bit of a cheap shot here and has been criticized for creating the original song "Suddenly" purely to get some Oscar recognition. It's one of the weaker songs in the film for good reason, being shoved in there arbitrarily. And would I like to see Seth MacFarlane go home with an Oscar in addition to his hosting duties? Hell yeah.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

Argo: John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García
Les Misérables: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes
Life of Pi: Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin
Lincoln: Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins
Skyfall: Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson

When musicals or movies with heavy music influences are nominated here, they tend to win (Dreamgirls [2006], Ray [2004], Chicago [2002]). Les Mis fits the bill pretty solidly for the production of its sound content, which is vital for this film. Still, it has also gone to bigger flicks like Inception (2010), The Bourne Ultimatum (2007), and King Kong (2005), a testament to how vital sound is to the creation of these big fantasy and action worlds - in which case, Life of Pi or Skyfall may seem destined to pull out the win. There's also of course sweepers like The Hurt Locker and Slumdog Millionaire, and if Lincoln sweeps, this is Andy, Gary, and Ron's to lose. So, that basically leaves Argo with no chance, but I'm not convinced that the musical can't win here.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Argo: Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn
Django Unchained: Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi: Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton
Skyfall: Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker
Zero Dark Thirty: Paul N.J. Ottosson

War movies rule this category - dating back to U-571 (2000). Since then it's gone to Pearl Harbor (2001), Letters from Iwo Jima (2006), and The Hurt Locker. The only recent loss that's worrisome is last year's War Horse (2011), but let's face it, that movie sucked anyway. Even though there's actually little war in Zero Dark Thirty, the sound editing is precise, adds great tension to the narrative, and is integral to the viewing experience of that final raid of bin Laden's pad in Abbottabad. There's not a great chance this goes to anyone else.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

The Avengers: Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White
Life of Pi: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott
Prometheus: Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman: Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson

This is a raucous category this year. The Avengers surely deserves to win for this. The Hobbit certainly deserves to win for this. This category, though, does heavily favor nominees also nominated for best picture (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [2008], AVABAR, Inception [2010], Hugo). The only flick here that really fits that bill is Life of Pi, and that film has been widely praised for only its visuals anyway. And to be fair, Richard Parker is worth that Avengers single take or the crazy double-sets of The Hobbit anyway.

Best Documentary, Features

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

So we at last move on the crappy categories that are really up for grabs. No one really knows how these will turn out. There's usually only one or two big docs a year and those get the Oscar nods obvi. There isn't anything totally apparent this year, but Searching for Sugar Man supposedly has some buzz, and yeah I've kind of heard about it before, though it's a little foggy. That's good enough for my prognostication here.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

If there's anything worse than Feature Docs it's Short Subject Docs. What an awful, awful category. We might as well get the dartboard out. Open Heart would mean that both docs would feature stories from Africa. It's getting the best odds, though, so sure, I don't care.

Best Short Film, Animated

Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Paperman
The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare

This is the only really juicy category in this section of the Oscars because we actually get to see half of these before other animated films like Ice Age: Inconsequential Drift (2012) and Brave (2012). To that, we'll go with Maggie Simpson's Oscar Debut here, because Dave Silverman and the rest of The Simpsons lore deserve an Oscar. It's not actually favoured, but with my rule about kind of knowing about something and letting the most popular nominee win - The Longest Daycare is all over this.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

So we're finally on our last category here. It's fitting that I get exhausted and don't care by this point, because really, these categories are impossible to predict. I actually did try to watch some of these this year, and then found myself doing ANYTHING ELSE with my time. Siding with Derby again, Curfew it is.

So folks, that's it. How will these predictions fare? My lifetime correct pick rate is 58%, which is pretty awful. Let's boost that over 60 this year. Over the weeks to come we'll also be taking a closer look at the acting, writing, directing, and Best Picture races. Those are really the only ones that matter. The ceremony comes on February 24th, hosted by Seth MacFarlane.

Oscar Zone Vol. III; Part 1: Nominations and Predictions

Well folks, here we are again, an exciting time of the year to break away from the drull January Season, the Oscar Nominations were officially released today and here are our first thoughts. Now, in the next month we'll give these first thoughts some careful analysis as the races ebb and flow. Some of our early guesses last year were wayyy off but we could have seen some winners yet from a week out or so. That said, it's a skill to guess it all from the beginning, so here we are.

Now, we have a very particular system for this thing around here. Politics and lobbying in Hollywood is a complex game and the most worthy nominees seldom actually bring home some gold. For that reason we highlight in RED the nominees we think deserve to win, in BLUE those that will win and naturally, when these choices actually do align, it's in a lovely shade of PURPLE. Let's get at it:

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The Artist (2011): Thomas Langmann

The Descendants (2011): Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011): Scott Rudin
The Help (2011): Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan
Hugo (2011): Graham King, Martin Scorsese
Midnight in Paris (2011): Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
Moneyball (2011): Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt
The Tree of Life (2011): Nominees to be determined
War Horse (2011): Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy

I thought both Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011) and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) were better than anything on this list. That said, The Artist is charming its way through Southern California right now and seems hellbent on grabbing Oscar, if only for pulling off what it does for the sheer novelty of it. The Descendants would be a quirkier win and its kind don't usually get the big prize. If both of these films get enough votes to cancel each other out though (and the gimmicks of The Artist proves too great), something like Hugo could step in and snatch it.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Demián Bichir for A Better Life (2011)

George Clooney for The Descendants (2011)

Jean Dujardin for The Artist (2011)

Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)

Brad Pitt for Moneyball (2011)

After a surprise snub of Michael Fassbender in Shame (2011), the Best Actor race isn't nearly as clear-cut as it has been recently. This is unbelievably Gary Oldman's lifetime first Oscar Nomination and I'm half-tempted to say that the Academy uses this opportunity to honour his work, similar to Jeff Bridges, John Wayne, Al Pacino and so on, who won awards for far less than their best work. This was not the case with Mickey Rourke a few years ago, however when the Academy turned instead to familiarity, honouring Sean Penn instead. I'm thinking something similar happens here, and this IS one of George's lifetime best roles, so I'm thinking he snatches it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs (2011)
Viola Davis for The Help (2011)

Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011)

Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady (2011)

Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn (2011)

This is an extremely competitive category this year. Truly, the women outshined the men in 2011. That said, no one committed more to a role than Rooney Mara did, although Meryl Streep shines more by being outstanding in an otherwise all-around terrible film. It is a big snub to Tilda Swinton, though, who carries a much better film as well or better than Meryl did.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn (2011)
Jonah Hill for Moneyball (2011)
Nick Nolte for Warrior (2011)

Christopher Plummer for Beginners (2010)

Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)

It's cool to see some Old Farts in this category (and...Jonah Hill), as well as nominations for people who didn't play intense villains. That said, there is also no clear-cut runaway winner here right now. Christopher Plummer has had an excellent late career as of late, and if people can distinguish between him and Max von Sydow he should get the win. People are whining that Albert Brooks didn't get nominated for Drive, and I would say that's more a novelty move anyway, at least until I saw Melissa McCarthy nominated for Bridesmaids.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Bérénice Bejo for The Artist (2011)

Jessica Chastain for The Help (2011)
Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids (2011)
Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs (2011)

Octavia Spencer for The Help (2011)

The Academy has loved giving this award to Black Chicks recently, so I'm almost cautious to think that this will be that easy to predict. The forces behind The Artist lobbied hard to get Bérénice Bejo in this category and away from the heavy competition in the Leading Actress category, and I think that may pay off. That said, Octavia is cresting hard right now as the likely winner. Can we also mention Melissa McCarthy? Great to see one of the best characters of the year recognized like that. And no love for that chick from The Secret Life of the American Teenager who was in The Descendants? Ouch.

Best Achievement in Directing

Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris (2011)
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist (2011)
Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life (2011)
Alexander Payne for The Descendants (2011)

Martin Scorsese for Hugo (2011)

Scorsese is recognized again here. Hugo is such a competently and wonderfully directed film in a genre that Marty has never really attempted before. He pulls off the 3-D Children's action / nostalgia flick so well that I don't think there's any way around his winning.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

The Artist (2011): Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids (2011): Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo
Margin Call (2011): J.C. Chandor
Midnight in Paris (2011): Woody Allen
A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi

I don't see Bridesmaids being a real contender anywhere, although it's sweet that Kristen Wiig can add "Oscar-Nominated" to her resume the same way Matt Damon and Ben Affleck can write "Oscar-Winner" somehow. I don't think any other movie has the momentum behind it besides The Artist, which pulls off an emotional, entertaining story with very few actual words - quite the achievement (although, really isn't that what we started with in film?). Then again, many believe that this is Woody's category to lose. I think he loses.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

The Descendants (2011): Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash

Hugo (2011): John Logan
The Ides of March (2011): George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
Moneyball (2011): Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011): Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan

Dean Pelton, Oscar-Winning Screenwriter? The Descendants does have enough good momentum to nab this. I don't see Moneyball seriously contending anywhere, although the dialogue is crisp enough and works well to turn a very difficult subject into entertainment. Good Will Hunting (1997), arguably Juno (2007), and The Social Network (2010) won for doing the same thing. Now I'm wondering how I made my second Matt Damon reference of this post and also if I should change my vote...

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

A Cat in Paris (2010): Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli
Chico & Rita (2010): Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal
Kung Fu Panda 2 (2011): Jennifer Yuh
Puss in Boots (2011): Chris Miller

Rango (2011): Gore Verbinski

Luckiest nomination of the year certainly goes to Rango. I thought this was one of the best films of the year and somehow it landed in a category with Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots instead of Cars 2 (2011) and The Adventures of Tintin (2011). Both of those pics are prestigious enough to grab a ton of votes and in their absence I have to believe Rango ends up pooling it all.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Bullhead (2011): Michael R. Roskam (Belgium)
Footnote (2011): Joseph Cedar (Israel)
In Darkness (2011): Agnieszka Holland (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (2011): Philippe Falardeau (Canada)

A Separation (2011): Asghar Farhadi (Iran)

Believe it or not this is one of the easier categories to pick. A Separation has been making plenty of waves over here and is probably the one surefire lock I'll give. This thing should be nominated for Best Picture and will walk all over this category.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

The Artist (2011): Guillaume Schiffman

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Jeff Cronenweth

Hugo (2011): Robert Richardson

The Tree of Life (2011): Emmanuel Lubezki
War Horse (2011): Janusz Kaminski

This is a tough category. It would be easy for The Artist to run away with this if it starts sweeping, but the Cinematography itself isn't that innovative. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo's cinematography really stood out as an element that made that a better film, but I'm not thinking it gets a lot of love here. That leaves the breathtaking, 3-D work of Hugo, an Academy-Friendly Recognition, but this is really a toss-up.

Best Achievement in Editing

The Artist (2011): Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius

The Descendants (2011): Kevin Tent

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter

Hugo (2011): Thelma Schoonmaker
Moneyball (2011): Christopher Tellefsen

I'm treating this the same way as Cinematography. The editing in particular stands out with The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo but I'm not convinced it will win. The Artist is the safe bet right now but this could go a few ways.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

The Artist (2011): Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan

Hugo (2011): Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo

Midnight in Paris (2011): Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil
War Horse (2011): Rick Carter, Lee Sandales

I fail to see the Art Direction needed in The Artist. I can see this going either Hugo or Midnight in Paris' way, but as you can tell, I'm leaning more towards this being Marty's night rather than Woody's.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Anonymous (2011): Lisy Christl

The Artist (2011): Mark Bridges
Hugo (2011): Sandy Powell

Jane Eyre (2011): Michael O'Connor

W.E. (2011): Arianne Phillips

Costume Design tends to go to weird films that don't have much else going for them, and as such I rarely predict the right winners here. Why can't Madonna's film be an Academy-Award winner? There are plenty of reasons. Let's go Jane Eyre with a snub of Anonymous.

Best Achievement in Makeup

Albert Nobbs (2011): Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin

The Iron Lady (2011): Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland

This is certainly Mark and Roy's category to lose. They did a fantastic job recreating some of the historical people in The Iron Lady, and by historical I mean like only thirty years ago. It's flawless. Leading heavy in the race right now.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

The Adventures of Tintin (2011): John Williams

The Artist (2011): Ludovic Bource

Hugo (2011): Howard Shore
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011): Alberto Iglesias
War Horse (2011): John Williams

There isn't a runaway outstanding track like Trent Reznor's The Social Network last year (although his The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo deserves it). The Artist carries a lot of its back on its Score, SOUNDS good here hyuck hyuck.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

The Muppets (2011): Bret McKenzie ("Man or Muppet")

Rio (2011): Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett ("Real in Rio")

Is this a serious category? The Muppets only needs to beat Rio? This just turned into my lock of the night. For the record, this is why this happened.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson
Hugo (2011): Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
Moneyball (2011): Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin

War Horse (2011): Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson

I never really know where this is going, but I have always thought that the sound of all the Transformers films is underrated. Sound is so essential to those fast flicks, it provides a cue for the action far superior to visual stimuli. I honestly think that Dark of the Moon deserves it here. I mean, those foley artists had to come up with all kinds of weird Alien Technology sounds. That's tough, man.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Drive (2011): Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011): Ren Klyce
Hugo (2011): Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
War Horse (2011): Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom

This has Drive's name all over it. Without any other nominations and plenty of support I imagine this locks it up. It also does excel in careful editing and sound plays a huge effect on mood here.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects


Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (2011): Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson
Hugo (2011): Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning
Real Steel (2011): Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg

Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011): Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011): Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier

This seems like a no-brainer. The Academy finally has a chance to give a good movie this award instead of a mindless blockbuster, although that means that the Transformers Trilogy will have no Visual Effects award to show for their three films, which is unfortunate. The robots in Transformers look incredible and the integration of them into reality has been seamless throughout each installment, peaking with Dark of the Moon. It won't happen though.

Best Documentary, Features

Hell and Back Again (2011): Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front (2011): Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (2011): Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky

Pina (2011): Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel

Undefeated (2011): Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas

Apparently the big doc this year was Project Nim (2011), and that was a big snub. It's tough to say with these nominees, none really stand out as exceptional (read: I've heard of them). Based on titles...Pina?

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement (2011): Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin
God Is the Bigger Elvis (2011): Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson

Incident in New Baghdad (2011): James Spione

Saving Face (2011): Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (2011): Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen

The most brutal category. Let's move on.

Best Short Film, Animated

Dimanche (2011): Patrick Doyon
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (2011): William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg

La Luna (2011): Enrico Casarosa

A Morning Stroll (2011): Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe
Wild Life (2011): Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby

It's fairly safe to go with Pixar here, even though it hasn't yet been attached to a theatrical film (we'll see it next year before Brave [2012]). Considering this is their only category this year I want to lock it up.

Best Short Film, Live Action

Pentecost (2011): Peter McDonald

Raju (2011): Max Zähle, Stefan Gieren

The Shore (2011): Terry George, Oorlagh George

Time Freak (2011): Andrew Bowler, Gigi Causey

Tuba Atlantic (2010): Hallvar Witzø

We're down to just going by titles at this point, folks.

Well that's it. We'll see how terrible I do this year, and it's very possible my predictions shift as some films gain speed, others lose speed, although there isn't a race as heated as The Social Network / The King's Speech (2010) was last year. There are quite a handful of interesting acting races however, and I expect to be wrong about Viola Davis. We'll find out February 26!